New Year's Day and BCS Bowl Game Previews
BRETT CIANCIA and MIKE NOWOSWIAT
December 31st, 2013
December 31st, 2013
RELATED: Our 2013 Bowl Picks (ALL GAMES)
It's been an unbelievable season, and we appreciate you reading our previews and interacting with us on Twitter. As we preview the final 8 games of the 2013 season, we invite you to voice your opinions below in our first-ever comment section. As always, join our discussion and analysis on Twitter, and thanks for a great season #PickSixNation. Remember, there is NO offseason here at Pick Six Previews, and our offseason content will begin mid-January
CAPITAL ONE BOWL - South Carolina vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin might be favored had the Badgers ended the season on a high note. They had a tight loss to Arizona State in the beginning of the season as the result of an officiating blunder and a tight loss to Ohio State. South Carolina has also had a head-scratching loss—at Tennessee—to go along with a nine point loss in week two to a healthier Georgia team in Athens. Only South Carolina has some impressive wins on its resume, however, including wins at UCF, at Missouri, and home against Clemson. The Gamecocks have made a living playing solid defense and smart, efficient offense. QB Connor Shaw is the son of a high school football coach and it shows. He is talented and smart, completing 61.0% of his throws and, most importantly, only throwing one interception all year. Kelcy Quarles and Jadeveon Clowney form one the best defensive line tandems in the country and will need to have one of their best all-around games as they try to stop the vaunted Wisconsin rushing attack. Running Backs Melvin Gordon and James White have put up absurd numbers on the ground this year with Gordon recording 1,466 yards and White adding another 1,337. A team like Wisconsin can make any game close if the opponent isn’t ready for the physicality the Badgers offer. However, QB Joel Stave will need to play better than usual to come away with a win. South Carolina is the best defense that Wisconsin will face all year and the Badgers were not an offensive juggernaut to speak of in the Big Ten. Look for Connor Shaw and company to run away with this game in the second half. South Carolina 27 Wisconsin 16
OUTBACK BOWL - Iowa vs. LSU
Just when you thought Kirk Ferentz was on his way out, and had his 'hot seat' warming, he brings back typical Iowa Hawkeye Football, complete with a power running game and tough defense. He and his 8-4 squad will be challenged on New Years Day by perennial SEC power LSU. The Bayou Bengals are without star QB Zach Mettenberger, but still have an elite roster stocked with talent all over the field. The Tigers suffered 3-point losses to Georgia and Ole Miss, but are the only team to take out #2 Auburn (31-17 win). A balanced attack with RB Jeremy Hill and WR's Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry will help young QB Anthony Jennings (freshman) in just his 2nd start. For Iowa, its defense ranks 11th in the nation in scoring, and is the reason the Hawkeyes are returning to New Year's Day football. Their losses have been closely contested for the most part, taking Northern Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan State into the 4th quarter. The defense will keep them in this one, but wont be enough. LSU has the speed, the athleticism, (and a heck of a defense of their own). In a rematch of the infamous 2005 Capital One Bowl, LSU avenges the Hail Mary. LSU 27 Iowa 20
COTTON BOWL - Missouri vs. Oklahoma State
While this isn’t a BCS bowl game, this matchup is as intriguing as any bowl matchup outside of the National Championship. Both teams feature explosive offenses and underrated defenses, and both are coming off very disappointing losses. Perhaps Oklahoma State was too busy thinking about the head-scratching loss to West Virginia—which prevented them from being in the driver’s seat for a National Title appearance heading into the Oklahoma game—while preparing for that game. Still, these two teams are top-ten quality and the Cotton Bowl should be as exciting as ever. Oklahoma State, which features 71 players from the state of Texas, is led by 2013 All-Name Team QB Clint Chelf, who took over for Quarterback J.W. Walsh after the TCU game. Chelf only has a 56.0% completion percentage, but runs the offense more efficiently than Walsh. The Cowboys rely heavily on running backs Desmond Roland and Jeremy Smith, which has been consistent in both wins and losses. Missouri’s front seven is terrific against the pass, which means that it’s imperative for the Cowboys to establish the run. I don’t anticipate a huge game from the offense against this Tiger defense, however. And unfortunately, that’s what makes the difference for the Cowboys in wins and losses. Oklahoma State actually has better defensive statistics in losses than in wins. Missouri’s offense provides a great challenge for the Cowboys, and I expect the Tigers to score. However, as I mentioned, Missouri’s pass rush led by Kony Ealy and Michael Sam is the key to this game. The Cowboys haven’t faced a front like this all season and the rushing attack isn’t dynamic enough to win this game, similar to how Auburn wore down Missouri in the SEC Title game. Missouri Quarterback James Franklin has only lost once this year and has two great receivers, which is important since one of them will be lined up across from standout cornerback Justin Gilbert. I said Oklahoma State was a top-ten caliber team, but unfortunately for the Cowboys, Missouri is a top-five caliber team. Missouri 38 Oklahoma State 27
ROSE BOWL - Michigan State vs. Stanford
Two nearly identical teams will face off in the 100th Rose Bowl Game. Michigan State's elite defense shut down Urban Meyer's Buckeyes, who were riding a 24-game win streak. Their opponent, Stanford, used brute force to claim its 2nd straight PAC-12 crown. The Cardinal overpowered Oregon (again) and dominated Arizona State twice. Both teams feature elite defenses, especially up front, and rely heavily on the ground game. The Stanford offensive line is one of the nation's strongest, and QB Kevin Hogan has impressed in his 1.5 seasons as starter. He and RB Tyler Gaffney received a gift in the form of star LB Max Bullough's suspension - he was the spirited leader of the stingy Michigan State front 7 and will surely be missed by Coach Dantonio. While both defenses are star-studded (Trent Murphy, Shayne Skov, Darqueze Dennard) and elite, the offensive edge goes to Stanford. With the stronger O-Line and the unfortunate suspension of Bullough, I expect Stanford to win this one. If you like low-scoring, hard-fought defensive battles (like me), then you'll appreciate this Rose Bowl. And what a way to celebrate the nation's oldest bowl game with a throwback-type football game. Stanford 20 Michigan State 13
FIESTA BOWL - Baylor vs. Central Florida
How can they replace RGIII? How can they replace Nick Florence? Art Briles has anwsered the annual questions and continues to elevate the Baylor Football program to new heights. Starting with the 2011 Heisman, now the highest scoring offense in America and the program's first BCS Bowl Game. He has made the short list of possible candidates to replace Mack Brown at Texas. But for now, he focuses on the Fiesta Bowl against another school making its BCS debut - Central Florida. UCF is a relatively young program, starting in Division III in 1979 and moving up to D1 in 1996. George O'Leary took over in 2004 and brought the Knights to bowl games and a BCS conference. Now with a dynamic duo in QB Blake Bortles and RB Storm Johnson, he has UCF playing in Tempe. Can they slow down or outscore Baylor? Simply put, NO. UCF has had quite a season, but has had its near disasters too, needing a miracle to beat lowly Temple and a late collapse to outlast 2-win South Florida. Baylor and QB Bryce Petty have flew through the Big12 with the only exception being that night game in Stillwater where literally nothing went right for the Bears. If Briles can avoid the Longhorn distractions and keep the Bears focused, I expect a beatdown in the desert. Baylor 51 Central Florida 30
SUGAR BOWL - Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma somehow has snuck its way into the Bowl Championship Series. Maybe it’s the missing playmaker at quarterback that we are accustomed to seeing in Crimson and Cream, or maybe it was the blowout loss to Texas in the Red River Shootout, but the Sooners have flown under the radar amidst a fantastic season. Finishing off the season on a high note, defeating the surging Kansas State Wildcats and cross-state rival Cowboys, Oklahoma is coming into this game with momentum. I hate to try to play mind-reader and figure out the psyche of a football team, so I will just say that Alabama’s mental state will play an important role in this game after suffering the loss of the century to arch-rival Auburn in the last week of the season. However, Nick Saban prepares his team correctly more often than not. For example, after suffering a similar loss to Cam Newton and Auburn in 2010, the Crimson Tide rolled to a 49-7 victory over Michigan State in the bowl game. Now, I think that the 2013 Oklahoma Sooners are better than that 2010 Michigan State team, but I don’t think that it will matter. Neither Blake Bell nor Trevor Knight is proficient enough to pick apart this Alabama defense, which is just as good as any Alabama defense, except for 2011’s historic unit. The Tide linebacking corp is versatile, talented, and deep and should be able to handle the Sooner rushing attack. The Oklahoma defense is a bit above-average defending the run, which will not be good enough to slow down TJ Yeldon and company while also worrying about the passing threat that AJ McCarron poses. Tide roll…Alabama 33 Oklahoma 16
ORANGE BOWL - Ohio State vs. Clemson
The 1970s Rose Bowls vs. USC, 1993 Michigan, 1995 Michigan, 1998 Michigan State ... and now ... 2013 Michigan State. The crushing loss to the Spartans in the BigTen Championship Game now enters into Buckeye legend, joining that list of late-season losses costing Ohio State shots at the National Championship. Now Coach Urban Meyer must refocus his squad as Ohio State looks to become the first school to win each BCS Bowl. Clemson stands in their way, with a lethal offense and some stars on the defensive side too. QB Tajh Boyd and WR Sammy Watkins have had excellent careers at CU and look to avenge the infamous "70 Points Game" vs. West Virginia here 2 seasons ago. One thing is certain - expect an offensive shootout. Ohio State's defense has had issues and I expect Clemson to move the ball effectively. Braxton Miller will bounce back and I expect Meyer to include Dontre Wilson more than in the BigTen CCG. Bruising power back Carlos Hyde will wear down the Tiger front seven. While Clemson may have the edge on defense, I give Ohio State a signficant edge in coaching; Meyer has had a month to prepare for this game, a key one location-wise as he loves recruiting the Speed State. Ohio State 45 Clemson 41 (and revenge for Woody Hayes)
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - FLORIDA STATE vs. AUBURN
Here they are. The mighty Seminoles only have one game left to play after absolutely dominating all season. I’ve said it since the 63-0 drubbing of Maryland that they are the best team in the nation, and I stand by my statement. Both offenses in this game are absolutely electric, but only Florida State’s defense can match the offensive talent set to be displayed in Pasadena, California. Timmy Jernigan, Telvin Smith, Christian Jones, and Lamarcus Joyner provide playmakers on each level of defense, along with a ridiculously-talented two-deep. Only Boston College was able to crack 20 points on this unit all season with a physical run game that Auburn has proven it can replicate at a higher level. Even still, Boston College looked decent, not great, averaging 4.44 yards per rush. If we want to draw a comparison to this game, the best would be the Alabama-Auburn game. The Crimson Tide defense is probably the most similar to this Seminole unit, talent-wise. In that game, Auburn was able to rush for 296 yards on 52 carries and two touchdowns. Solid, but the Tigers will need to do better than that if they want to outscore the Seminoles. By the end of the season, these two offenses were clearly the best two units in the nation. QB Jameis Winston was the clear-cut Heisman winner, and should be the difference in this game. Auburn’s defense has been susceptible to air-raid attacks, exemplified by their defense of James Franklin and Missouri in the SEC Title Game. Franklin passed for 303 yards and three scores, but faltered late in the game when Mizzou faced obvious passing downs. Jameis Winston is a much better passer than Franklin and has a better supporting cast. Kelvin Benjamin may be the best big receiving target in the nation and is quickly ascending NFL draft boards. He is joined by Kenny Shaw, Rashad Greene and Tight End Nick O’Leary to form a lethal aerial attack. Not to mention, FSU probably has the best offensive line in the nation and a thunder-and-lightning running back duo in James Wilder and Devonta Freeman. Florida State is too talented and a convincing win will confirm my feeling that this is one of the best teams we have seen in a long time...Florida State 45 Auburn 32
Related Article: A Farewell to the BCS
Related Article: A Farewell to the BCS
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