Week 14
December 7th, 2013
By Julian Pritcher
Dallas at Chicago
This one has all the ingredients for a shootout. If conditions permit up in the Windy City, there could be passing yards aplenty. Both coaches hate running the ball. Don’t be fooled by DeMarco Murray’s, three touchdown performance on turkey day, the Cowboys only average 85 yards per game on the ground. That’s good for 27th in the league. Jason Garret trusts his quarterback. In fact, Tony Romo, the butt of every QB joke in the league, has been the most consistent and reliable part of this Cowboys team. Romo delivered down the stretch in the Detroit game, but the defense let him down and allowed the Lions to come back. He won the game for Cowboys the very next week against the Vikings with seven yard pass to Dwayne Harris. Romo had to overcome a Dez Bryant fumble on the final drive to set up the game winning field goal in what would have been a disastrous loss to the Giants week 12. That Cowboy defense, which is 31st against the pass and 27th against the run, does Romo no favors when they step on the field and try to defend a lead. That secondary will face the new Monsters of Midway on Monday night. Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshal provide huge targets for Josh McCown to throw it up to. Jeffery proved he is a legitimate threat last week against Minnesota. The third year pro had 12 receptions, 249 yards and two touchdowns. There is no doubt the Dallas secondary will have trouble covering these two, but it’s the Cowboys quarterback that I trust more in these big games. If Dallas was to keep those pesky Eagles of their back, they need to keep winning down the stretch. I like the Cowboys in a shootout.
The Pick: Dallas 34, Chicago 31
St. Louis at Arizona
Just when you have all the momentum, a single loss can bring you right back down to earth. What these two teams have in common are the disappointment momentum brings you after crushing the Indianapolis Colts. A premiere pass rush is what allowed these teams to look so dominant against Indianapolis. Robert Quinn and Chris Long for the Rams, and Calais Campbell and John Abraham for the Cardinals combine for deadly combinations of the edge. But defense hasn’t been a problem for either of these teams; it’s their inability to score enough points. The Rams traded up to get Tavon Austin and hopefully a dynamic playmaker at receiver. Austin has been good, but not first round good so far this year. The Rams problems stem not just from a lack of offensive weapons, but at the quarterback position. It’s easy to point to Sam Bradford’s injury and say that’s why this team hasn’t been productive, but I think Bradford just hasn’t panned out. Carson Palmer seemed like the answer in Arizona, but all that potential in scouts saw in Cincinnati hasn’t translated to Oakland or Arizona. Even with Larry Fitzgerald and an emerging Michael Floyd on the outside, Palmer’s performance has left something to be desired all year. In a battle of two negligible quarterbacks I’ll take the veteran starter (Palmer) over the veteran backup (Kellen Clemens).
The Pick: Arizona 26, St. Louis 20
This one has all the ingredients for a shootout. If conditions permit up in the Windy City, there could be passing yards aplenty. Both coaches hate running the ball. Don’t be fooled by DeMarco Murray’s, three touchdown performance on turkey day, the Cowboys only average 85 yards per game on the ground. That’s good for 27th in the league. Jason Garret trusts his quarterback. In fact, Tony Romo, the butt of every QB joke in the league, has been the most consistent and reliable part of this Cowboys team. Romo delivered down the stretch in the Detroit game, but the defense let him down and allowed the Lions to come back. He won the game for Cowboys the very next week against the Vikings with seven yard pass to Dwayne Harris. Romo had to overcome a Dez Bryant fumble on the final drive to set up the game winning field goal in what would have been a disastrous loss to the Giants week 12. That Cowboy defense, which is 31st against the pass and 27th against the run, does Romo no favors when they step on the field and try to defend a lead. That secondary will face the new Monsters of Midway on Monday night. Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshal provide huge targets for Josh McCown to throw it up to. Jeffery proved he is a legitimate threat last week against Minnesota. The third year pro had 12 receptions, 249 yards and two touchdowns. There is no doubt the Dallas secondary will have trouble covering these two, but it’s the Cowboys quarterback that I trust more in these big games. If Dallas was to keep those pesky Eagles of their back, they need to keep winning down the stretch. I like the Cowboys in a shootout.
The Pick: Dallas 34, Chicago 31
St. Louis at Arizona
Just when you have all the momentum, a single loss can bring you right back down to earth. What these two teams have in common are the disappointment momentum brings you after crushing the Indianapolis Colts. A premiere pass rush is what allowed these teams to look so dominant against Indianapolis. Robert Quinn and Chris Long for the Rams, and Calais Campbell and John Abraham for the Cardinals combine for deadly combinations of the edge. But defense hasn’t been a problem for either of these teams; it’s their inability to score enough points. The Rams traded up to get Tavon Austin and hopefully a dynamic playmaker at receiver. Austin has been good, but not first round good so far this year. The Rams problems stem not just from a lack of offensive weapons, but at the quarterback position. It’s easy to point to Sam Bradford’s injury and say that’s why this team hasn’t been productive, but I think Bradford just hasn’t panned out. Carson Palmer seemed like the answer in Arizona, but all that potential in scouts saw in Cincinnati hasn’t translated to Oakland or Arizona. Even with Larry Fitzgerald and an emerging Michael Floyd on the outside, Palmer’s performance has left something to be desired all year. In a battle of two negligible quarterbacks I’ll take the veteran starter (Palmer) over the veteran backup (Kellen Clemens).
The Pick: Arizona 26, St. Louis 20
Carolina at New Orleans
If you read the Panther’s overall NFL rankings, there are a lot of single digits. Carolina is ninth in rushing yards, second in stopping the run, and sixth in pass defense. For being only 27th in passing offense, the Panthers have proven that you don’t need a flashy passing offense to win in this league. Cam Newton has evolved into a very efficient playmaker for this team. He understands how to use his legs not only to escape pressure and run but also to climb the pocket to set his feet for a pass. There aren’t many designed runs for Cam anymore, but he still has elite escapabilbity when he decides to scramble. The Panthers run into problems because of their lack of receiving talent. Steve Smith is passed his prime. Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn would be the third and fourth options on just about any other team. Another piece of Cam’s game that’s impressed me is that he has made those two legitimate deep threats this year. The defense has been elite this year, but they will face their biggest test since the Patriots this Sunday. Who knows how New Orleans will perform. They’ve been elite at home this year, but after the beating Seattle put on them, Drew Brees and that offense has to be shaken up. Brees had his worst performance of the year, throwing for 147 yards and a single touchdown. Jimmy Graham proved he could be shut down by an elite defense. Seattle’s linebackers did an excellent job of covering Graham and I think Carolina has the talent to as well. The Panthers don’t have the speed on defense and there no name secondary will be exposed by Brees’ other weapons. I expect Marcus Colston and Darren Sproles to show up this week. Sean Peyton won’t be out-done two weeks in a row.
The Pick: New Orleans 27, Carolina 24
Seattle at San Francisco
The Seahawks no doubt look like the best team in football after Monday night. They crushed a very good Saints team. As mentioned above, the Seattle defense held Brees to a season low in passing yards. Jimmy Graham could only muster 42 yards receiving and New Orleans offense sputtered all night. Seattle’s home field advantage was certainly a factor. Bomani Jones put that advantage into perspective on the Dan Le Batard show this week. He said how are you supposed to gain the lead in a football game when you can’t hear. That place breaks decibel records almost every time they play. This fact can be brushed to side because decibel levels aren’t something we think about in our daily lives, but that place gets LOUD. Seattle won’t have that same advantage this time as they travel to Candlestick for a rematch against the 49ers. San Francisco has quietly won two games in a row, but there is a reason no one is talking about them. They have only beat one team with a winning record all season. That team was the Cardinals in week 6. San Francisco struggles to score. It’s a combination of a Kaepernick sophomore slump and the lack of any threat at receiver. Vernon Davis was the only reliable target for this team. When he was sidelined with a concussion, this team was hard to watch. Kaep getting Michael Crabtree back is huge for the offense. Last year, it was almost automatic that Crabtree would convert on third down. Seattle has proved they have one of the deepest secondaries in the league. Losing Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond would be a crutch for most teams, but backup Byron Maxwell was the primary reason for Jimmy Graham’s bad game. The 49ers, who rank second to last in passing offense, won’t have anywhere to throw the ball. I like Seattle even on the road.
The Pick: Seattle 23, San Francisco 17
If you read the Panther’s overall NFL rankings, there are a lot of single digits. Carolina is ninth in rushing yards, second in stopping the run, and sixth in pass defense. For being only 27th in passing offense, the Panthers have proven that you don’t need a flashy passing offense to win in this league. Cam Newton has evolved into a very efficient playmaker for this team. He understands how to use his legs not only to escape pressure and run but also to climb the pocket to set his feet for a pass. There aren’t many designed runs for Cam anymore, but he still has elite escapabilbity when he decides to scramble. The Panthers run into problems because of their lack of receiving talent. Steve Smith is passed his prime. Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn would be the third and fourth options on just about any other team. Another piece of Cam’s game that’s impressed me is that he has made those two legitimate deep threats this year. The defense has been elite this year, but they will face their biggest test since the Patriots this Sunday. Who knows how New Orleans will perform. They’ve been elite at home this year, but after the beating Seattle put on them, Drew Brees and that offense has to be shaken up. Brees had his worst performance of the year, throwing for 147 yards and a single touchdown. Jimmy Graham proved he could be shut down by an elite defense. Seattle’s linebackers did an excellent job of covering Graham and I think Carolina has the talent to as well. The Panthers don’t have the speed on defense and there no name secondary will be exposed by Brees’ other weapons. I expect Marcus Colston and Darren Sproles to show up this week. Sean Peyton won’t be out-done two weeks in a row.
The Pick: New Orleans 27, Carolina 24
Seattle at San Francisco
The Seahawks no doubt look like the best team in football after Monday night. They crushed a very good Saints team. As mentioned above, the Seattle defense held Brees to a season low in passing yards. Jimmy Graham could only muster 42 yards receiving and New Orleans offense sputtered all night. Seattle’s home field advantage was certainly a factor. Bomani Jones put that advantage into perspective on the Dan Le Batard show this week. He said how are you supposed to gain the lead in a football game when you can’t hear. That place breaks decibel records almost every time they play. This fact can be brushed to side because decibel levels aren’t something we think about in our daily lives, but that place gets LOUD. Seattle won’t have that same advantage this time as they travel to Candlestick for a rematch against the 49ers. San Francisco has quietly won two games in a row, but there is a reason no one is talking about them. They have only beat one team with a winning record all season. That team was the Cardinals in week 6. San Francisco struggles to score. It’s a combination of a Kaepernick sophomore slump and the lack of any threat at receiver. Vernon Davis was the only reliable target for this team. When he was sidelined with a concussion, this team was hard to watch. Kaep getting Michael Crabtree back is huge for the offense. Last year, it was almost automatic that Crabtree would convert on third down. Seattle has proved they have one of the deepest secondaries in the league. Losing Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond would be a crutch for most teams, but backup Byron Maxwell was the primary reason for Jimmy Graham’s bad game. The 49ers, who rank second to last in passing offense, won’t have anywhere to throw the ball. I like Seattle even on the road.
The Pick: Seattle 23, San Francisco 17
Detroit at Philadelphia
So how about this Foles kid? The second year pro has to be thrown into some MVP talks after this four game stretch he has put together. After a two games without a touchdown, Nick Foles revived Chip Kelly’s offense into four straight wins. He has thrown 19 touchdown passes without an interception so far this year. That’s one shy of tying Peyton Manning’s record for TD passes without a pick. Philadelphia has done it on both sides of the ball, however. That defense has given up 21 points or less in eight straight games. The Eagles have done it with young stars in their new 3-4 scheme. Fletcher Cox, Bennie Logan, Cedric Thornton, and Vinny Curry all play huge roles along that defensive line and all are under the age of 26. Detroit has some young stars on their defensive line as well. Ndamkong Suh, Nick Fairly and Ziggy Ansah are the more talented bunch. The Lions will try and pressure the weaker right side of the Eagles offensive line. I expect the lead footed Foles to take some sacks from this pass rush. Fairley and Suh provide big bodies in the middle to bottle up Philly’s run game as well. The Eagles secondary is statistically the worst and the league facing a Lions team that average 300 yards per game through the air. This is a bad matchup overall for Philadelphia and I expect Foles to finally come back down to earth from his fantastic play and throw a clunker.
The Pick: Detroit 28, Philadelphia 23
Indianapolis at Cincinnati
The battle of 8 – 4, this game should be more exciting than it seems. Both teams have won double the amount of games they’ve lost. Even so, in a two game losing stretch, the Bengals lost to both the Ravens and the Dolphins. The Colts have some bad losses as well, getting curshed by the Rams and the Cardinals by a combined 59 points. These teams are good, but flawed. The Bengals have shown signs of dominance, but lack consistency. The Colts have a bad offensive line and a bad defense, but Andrew Luck has proven he can make up for almost all of that. It’s been hard on poor Andrew Luck. He is constantly trying to avoid having his head taken off by a defensive lineman and on top of all that he lost his favorite target, Reggie Wayne, for the year. Going on the road and facing one of the deepest and best defensive lines in the NFL won’t help poor Luck and his struggling offense. The Bengals are also undefeated at home this year, so I’m going with the safe pick in this one.
The Pick: Cincinnati 26, Indianapolis 20
So how about this Foles kid? The second year pro has to be thrown into some MVP talks after this four game stretch he has put together. After a two games without a touchdown, Nick Foles revived Chip Kelly’s offense into four straight wins. He has thrown 19 touchdown passes without an interception so far this year. That’s one shy of tying Peyton Manning’s record for TD passes without a pick. Philadelphia has done it on both sides of the ball, however. That defense has given up 21 points or less in eight straight games. The Eagles have done it with young stars in their new 3-4 scheme. Fletcher Cox, Bennie Logan, Cedric Thornton, and Vinny Curry all play huge roles along that defensive line and all are under the age of 26. Detroit has some young stars on their defensive line as well. Ndamkong Suh, Nick Fairly and Ziggy Ansah are the more talented bunch. The Lions will try and pressure the weaker right side of the Eagles offensive line. I expect the lead footed Foles to take some sacks from this pass rush. Fairley and Suh provide big bodies in the middle to bottle up Philly’s run game as well. The Eagles secondary is statistically the worst and the league facing a Lions team that average 300 yards per game through the air. This is a bad matchup overall for Philadelphia and I expect Foles to finally come back down to earth from his fantastic play and throw a clunker.
The Pick: Detroit 28, Philadelphia 23
Indianapolis at Cincinnati
The battle of 8 – 4, this game should be more exciting than it seems. Both teams have won double the amount of games they’ve lost. Even so, in a two game losing stretch, the Bengals lost to both the Ravens and the Dolphins. The Colts have some bad losses as well, getting curshed by the Rams and the Cardinals by a combined 59 points. These teams are good, but flawed. The Bengals have shown signs of dominance, but lack consistency. The Colts have a bad offensive line and a bad defense, but Andrew Luck has proven he can make up for almost all of that. It’s been hard on poor Andrew Luck. He is constantly trying to avoid having his head taken off by a defensive lineman and on top of all that he lost his favorite target, Reggie Wayne, for the year. Going on the road and facing one of the deepest and best defensive lines in the NFL won’t help poor Luck and his struggling offense. The Bengals are also undefeated at home this year, so I’m going with the safe pick in this one.
The Pick: Cincinnati 26, Indianapolis 20