WEEK 12
November 14th, 2013
By Mike Nowoswiat and Brett Ciancia
By Mike Nowoswiat and Brett Ciancia
GEORGIA TECH at CLEMSON
Thurs. Nov. 14th, 7:30. ESPN. AT Memorial Stadium
Clemson will win this game easily. Right? Well if you look at this rivalry over the years, you are wrong. Two years ago, Georgia Tech beat a top-10 Clemson team 31-17 and last year the Tigers topped the Yellow Jackets 47-31. The last time that Clemson won two years in a row was in 2003 when it won for the third straight time. Last year was new Clemson Defensive Coordinator Brent Venables’ first time against the Georgia Tech spread option attack, which could be part of the reason that the Jackets were able to break 30 points in Death Valley. It was also the last time that Clemson had the pleasure of playing an Al Groh-led Georgia Tech defense, which was porous more often than not. DC Ted Roof has returned to his alma mater from Penn State and has already begun to fix this unit. With better defensive coaching, I’d expect a lower scoring game in 2013. Georgia Tech has a different look on offense this year with Vad Lee taking over full-time for Tevin Washington at quarterback. He has looked a bit uncomfortable running the triple option, but has a much better arm than Washington, and has a better receiving corp led by DeAndre Smelter. If the Yellow Jackets were to steal a win tonight, Lee will need to capitalize on his big play opportunities through the air. On the other side of the ball, Georgia Tech must get pressure on Boyd and slow down Sammy Watkins. Easier said than done, yes, but Jeremiah Attaochu may be beginning his late season tear once again as he has recorded two sacks in each of the last two games. While I can’t pick against Boyd and company, I would advise any gamblers to stay away from this game (every year)…Clemson 30 Georgia Tech 24
GEORGIA at AUBURN
Sat. Nov. 16th, 3:30. CBS. AT Jordan-Hare Stadium
Before the season, if you told me that this game would consist of a top 10 team and a three-loss team I would believe you. Of course, like most people, I would have expected Georgia to be the top 10 team at risk of an upset in an away game against Auburn. But instead, it is Gus Malzahn and Auburn ranked in the top 10 with only one loss at LSU on their resume. Like LSU, Auburn is led by a Georgia transfer in QB Nick Marshall, who played defensive back at Georgia before being dismissed from the team. Marshall has effectively led this high-octane, ground-based offense very well in his first season under Malzahn’s tutelage. Tre Mason is an electric running back who complements Marshall very well, racking up over 1,000 yards and 16 touchdowns this season. Mason may just be the most eligible Heisman candidate at his position this season, regardless of how big of a longshot he is. Georgia has struggled since losing many offensive weapons early in the year. Todd Gurley’s return has stabilized the unit somewhat, but it is still nowhere near the group we anticipated in the preseason. The offense is not great, but the defense has been playing very poorly. Todd Grantham’s young defense has struggled to replace a lot of NFL talent that departed from last year’s roster, allowing no less than 30 points in every game against BCS opponents, except against a bad Florida offense. Auburn, of course, should not give Bulldog fans hope that the defense will turn it around this week…Auburn 45 Georgia 33
MICHIGAN STATE at NEBRASKA
Sat. November 16th, 3:30 ABC. At Memorial Stadium
I had the chance to watch Nebraska live last week at The Big House, and the Blackshirts impressed. Before you tweet back - 'Hey that's because Michigan's offense is terrible' answer me this: Why is it that when Michigan State shuts down Gardner and UM, it's "wow, Spartan defense!" but when Nebraska does the same it becomes "oh Michigan is weak." Give credit to both defenses. Yes, Michigan State's defense has been more consistently elite, but maybe this young Husker defense is finding its stride behind the dominance of JUCO transfer DE Randy Gregory. Similarly, Connor Cook is thriving, and the Spartans offense is actually helping its defense by scoring more touchdowns than them. Bad news for Michigan State is that this is the type of offense that Pelini has success in shutting down. He is 3-0 against the Spartans (NU has never lost to MSU). In front of an NCAA-Record 332nd straight sellout crowd, look for a significant homefield advantage for Big Red. Nebraska's 28 points in this game a year ago is the most Dantonio's defense has allowed in the last 22 games. Michigan State has not allowed 100 yards rushing in a game all season - Nebraska RB Ameer Abdullah is averaging 130+ (5th in Division 1)...Something's gotta give. Look for the resilient Huskers to overcome offensive injuries and defensive youth to defend it's Legends Division title... Nebraska 24 Michigan State 20
MIAMI at DUKE
Sat. Nov. 16th, 3:30, ESPNU. AT Wallace Wade Stadium
Well, once again, the Coastal Division is an absolute mess. Miami, Duke, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech each have two conference losses. Georgia Tech has to play Clemson tonight and has a good chance to pick up its third loss. Virginia Tech only has Maryland and Virginia left on the schedule and has a good chance to finish with just the two conference losses. If Miami wins, the Hokies will probably advance to the ACC Championship game; if Duke wins, Duke will probably go to the ACC Championship game. These are the two outcomes assuming the two Techs finish their season as expected. But, after all, this is the ACC Coastal Division. Nothing can be assumed. One thing is for certain: this game has high stakes attached to it. Duke is red hot and Miami is ice cold after climbing to number seven nationally before being slaughtered in Tallahassee and losing to Virginia Tech in Miami. The Hurricanes were sorely missing their Duke—Duke Johnson—against the Hokies, but the defense was of even more concern. Miami’s defense allowed 42 points to a lackluster Virginia Tech offense and allowed Logan Thomas to pass for 366 yards on over 80% completions. Duke’s offense struggled against North Carolina State last week and relied on special teams and defense to seal the game. Aside from the Virginia Tech game, Duke has not looked spectacular in many matchups despite its impressive record. Miami is simply the more athletic team at this point. And with both quarterbacks playing inconsistently, I will pick the more talented team every time...Miami 30 Duke 18
OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS
Sat. November 16th, 3:30, FOX. At Memorial Stadium
It's a rare case in mid-November that we don't really know what we have in either team here. Both had an early loss (2 in the case of Texas) but have won out since against lesser opponents. They each have a significant ranked win (Texas over OU; OSU over Texas Tech), but their 3 toughest games are all still ahead of them. Both squads have a new leader at QB than we originally forecasted. Were we perhaps a little too quick to throw Mack Brown on the guillotine? Yes and no. He has won out since, but the quality of opponents has been weak - we will learn a lot Saturday night in Austin. These teams were the top 2 consensus picks to win the league back in July, a 50/50 spilt for 1st. I had the Longhorns winning the league, and all they have done is win every conference game thus far. Oklahoma State stubbed its toe at West Virginia, for the only loss in the 3-headed race (Texas, OSU, Baylor). Case McCoy continues to improve, and the thrilling road win last Saturday will boost confidence. If this were in Stillwater, I would lean toward the 'Pokes. But as noted in July, Texas has the homefield advantage. They will defend DKR and Mack's dignity... Texas 37 Oklahoma State 34
STANFORD at SOUTHERN CAL
Sat. November 16th, 8pm, ABC. AT LA Memorial Coliseum.
It was dubbed as the biggest Thursday Night game in the history of the sport - #3 Oregon at #5 Stanford. Most of America had Oregon, but we stood by our July selection of Stanford. We noted that the Cardinal would again overpower the Ducks in the trenches, and the stout front 7 would breakdown the seemingly unstoppable Duck offense. Our division winner prevailed but there is no rest here - Stanford is again thrown into the national spotlight as they travel to Los Angeles for a College Gameday hosted battle with USC. Under "Coach O" the Trojans have won 4 straight league games, and are playing some good ball - the offense has made significant strides since the Kiffin firing. Despite such promising gains, the truth remains - they have a freshman starting QB, and when he faces challenging defenses, he plays like it. This isn't just any defense that Kessler is lining up against, but arguably the nation's strongest. Similarly, the Stanford O-Line could be the nation's strongest and will surely wear down the Trojans D. Home field advantage? Nope. USC fans stopped attending games early this season, and are quick to "boo" the home squad... Stanford 31 USC 20