BOWL WEEK 2
(Games from 12/27 to 12/31)
RECORD: 6-9
Here are the 15 Bowl Games in Week 2 along with our Picks, Predictions and Game Analysis. Happy Bowl Season!
MILITARY BOWL
Thursday December 27th, 3pm, ESPN
Bowling Green started the season off slow, but finished with a bang, winning their last seven of eight games. San Jose State has not really had a rough patch this season losing only two games to Stanford and Utah State. The Spartans only lost to Stanford by three and defeated a very good BYU team by six. Bowling Green went 0-2 against ranked teams this season, but lost to arguably the best team in the nation, the Florida Gators, by just a touchdown in its visit to Gainesville in week one. The Falcon offense has had its ups and downs this season led by QB Matt Schilz. The defense, however, has been rock solid and will have to be to shut down this Spartan attack that has scored at least 40 points on six occasions this season. QB David Fales looks to eclipse 4,000 yards this season after averaging 316.5 yards/game this season and tossing 31 touchdowns to a talented receiving corp. This game will come down to Bowling Green’s ability to limit this high-flying Spartan attack. San Jose State is proven, and it will prove its superiority in the national spotlight this time...San Jose State by 10
BELK BOWL
Thursday December 27th, 6:30pm, ESPN
Duke is bowling! Head coach David Cutcliffe has brought the Duke football program back to relevance and into a bowl for the first time since 1995. Quarterback Sean Renfree has played great under the guidance of the same coach that mentors the Manning brothers, throwing for 18 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. The Blue Devils were still in the ACC title hunt with only two weeks left in the season, perhaps because of the weakness of the ACC Coastal division, or perhaps because the program is making huge strides. Duke will face the Bearcats of Cincinnati who have lost their coach Butch Jones to Tennessee and defensive line coach Steve Stripling will serve as the interim head coach. The Bearcats lead the Big East in pass defense efficiency, which will be important as they face the pass-happy Blue Devils. Quarterback Brandon Kay has taken over the quarterback position midseason and should be able to pass against this porous Duke defense, which is allowing over 315 yards/game to FBS teams with winning records. While Duke playing in this game is a great story, the Cincinnati players winning this game after losing their coach will be an even better one...Cincinnati by 7
HOLIDAY BOWL
Thursday December 27th, 9:45pm, ESPN
Jim Mora Jr. deserves significant credit for his quick turnaround of the UCLA football program, but don’t overlook Art Briles coaching job this fall in Waco, Texas. With the departure of Heisman Winning QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor still finished with the 5th best scoring offense (3rd best passing) in the nation! In fact, both teams here have electric offenses and this will make up for San Diego’s last bowl game, the Poinsettia Bowl, that saw 1 offensive TD. Look for scoring early and often in this one- UCLA QB Brett Hundley has been very efficient especially with 1700-yard rusher Jonathan Franklin behind him. Baylor has been simply atrocious on the defensive side of the ball allowing 38 points per game (good for 117th nationwide) and will have serious trouble slowing down this Bruin attack. QB Nick Florence is capable of keeping Baylor in the contest late (don’t forget their upset of then-#1 Kansas State), but I think UCLA bounces back from two straight losses to Stanford and holds on late in a high-scoring duel…UCLA by 7
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Friday December 28th, 2pm, ESPN
Ohio started its season off with a bang going into one of the largest stadiums in the world and defeating the Penn State Nittany Lions. At the time, we saw this as a mild upset because Penn State was seemingly decimated after a mass exodus of players and a new head coach installing his new system. While Penn State went on to lose to a struggling Virginia team the next week, we cannot take away Ohio’s impressive win over a surprisingly good PSU football team. Louisiana-Monroe had an equally impressive start to the season by defeating a preseason National Title contender, Arkansas, and then narrowly losing to a top-25 Auburn team. While both of these teams seriously underachieved this season, we cannot ignore UL-Monroe’s performances against these SEC schools. Only Ohio, however, has lost some of this momentum, losing four of its last five games and comes stumbling into this bowl game against another quality opponent...UL Monroe by 5
RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL
Friday December 28th, 5:30pm, ESPN
The Hokies of Virginia Tech are not used to playing in a bowl of this caliber. Frank Beamer’s squad has been the consistent winner of the ACC and even when they do not win the conference, they are in the mix. With the rise of both Florida State and Clemson, the Hokies have taken a back seat atop the conference, but their train wreck of a season has been no other team’s doing but their own. Virginia Tech was embarrassed by a struggling Pittsburgh team earlier in the season and never fixed their problems. Rutgers had a tremendous season despite falling apart in its final two games to miss out on a Sugar Bowl appearance. The Scarlet Knights have been the best defensive team all season in the Big East and one of the top units in the nation. They will have to key in on VT Logan Thomas who has been streaky this season, throwing for 17 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Thomas must take care of the ball against this defense, and be able to move the ball on the ground as he is Virginia Tech’s leading rusher as well. The Hokies are extremely effective on 3rd and short yardage situations with Thomas either using his size to run the ball, or throw the ball efficiently at 66% in those situations. Rutgers, however, should be able to handle the inconsistent attack the Hokies will offer and win this game to salvage their season...Rutgers by 6
CAR CARE BOWL
Friday December 28th, 9:00pm, ESPN
With a relatively easy out-of-conference schedule and wins over Purdue and Illinois, Minnesota (6-6) has returned to the postseason! The Gophers get a tough matchup with an underrated 7-5 Texas Tech squad that boasts the #2 passing offense in the nation. However, Texas Tech is going through a coaching change with the exit of Tommy Tubberville and the hire of former TT quarterback Kliff Kingsbury. It is always tough to gauge the focus and intensity levels of teams that are in the midst of the coaching carousel. Further, Minnesota will be extremely fired up to return to bowl season, giving them the edge in the intangible category. This will not account for the talent differences in this one, as QB Seth Doege Texas Tech has proven they can outscore anyone. Minnesota has scored more than 17 points in only ONE BigTen game this year; inept offense is not the formula for beating the Red Raiders…Texas Tech by 13
ARMED FORCES BOWL
Saturday December 29th, 11:45pm, ESPN
Both Air Force and Rice enter with 6-6 records, and just 2 combined wins over bowl teams. The Rice defense has had trouble stopping the run all season, which is bad news as Air Force’s gritty triple option attack is ranked 2nd in rushing yards per game. The Falcons turned in a sub-par campaign in the race for the Commander-In-Chief Trophy, losing to both Army and Navy. However, they always play motivated football during bowl season and are never an easy opponent. This game will be very physical, and if one side will back down first, it will not be Air Force! I expect the game to be close during the first 3 quarters with the Falcon rushing attack wearing down the Rice defense in the 4th. With a better defense, and greater discipline, Air Force will finish with a winning record for the sixth straight season under Coach Troy Calhoun…Air Force by 7
PINSTRIPE BOWL
Saturday December 29th, 3:45pm, ESPN
This game will feature some of the best QB play seen in any matchup this bowl season. WVU QB Geno Smith electrified the country early in the season as the Mountaineers ascended the rankings and seemed on a crash course for a BCS game. The season took a turn for the worst and West Virginia proved to rather be a pretender, but Smith’s play barely fell off. He is now being mentioned as a potential number one NFL draft choice come April. Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib has played a huge part in turning the Orange program around under Doug Marrone and will also be drafted in 2013. Both teams struggle on defense, but have been able to outscore many opponents. ‘Cuse has been more consistent as a unit, but has played in an easier Big East conference. West Virginia’s one deficiency on offense is its O-line, which will make it imperative for the Orange to get pressure on Geno Smith and make it difficult for him to distribute it to playmakers Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. Austin is within striking distance of breaking the all-time all-purpose yard record and will most likely break it in what looks to be a shootout in Yankee stadium...West Virginia by 8
KRAFT FIGHT HUNGER BOWL
Saturday December 29th, 4pm, ESPN2
After a slow start to the 2012 season, Navy has found a spark on its offense with Freshman QB Keenan Reynolds. Since he was inserted into the Air Force game, Navy has gone 7-1 much in part to Reynolds' mastery of the triple option AND efficient passing. It was their gritty defense that sealed the last minute win over Army a few weeks ago. The Sun Devils have been resting up for 2 additional weeks than their counterparts- we have seen this long layoff work both ways. Taylor Kelly has been everything for this ASU offense, throwing for 2772 yards and 25 TD’s in New Coach Todd Graham’s first season. It was a good season, but they missed out on two close games in losses to Missouri and UCLA. All in all, Arizona State’s firepower should overwhelm the Midshipman defense. As always, Navy will play inspired football and grind down the Sun Devil defense. In the end it will be the Sun Devils on top, but to quote old man Corso, it will be “closer than the experts think”…Arizona State by 3
ALAMO BOWL
Saturday December 29th, 6:45pm, ESPN
The Texas Longhorns were a mild disappointment this season, a team we pegged as a 10+ win team back in August. The Quarterback controversy returned mid-October and the highly touted defense is still yet to impress. On the other hand, their Alamo Bowl counterpart Oregon State has been a huge surprise finishing in the top 15 despite being voted the consensus last place team in the Pac12 North by the media. The Mannion – Vaz duo at quarterback has been extremely productive, while the defense is only allowing 19.8 points per game (22nd in nation). For Texas, David Ash has been named the starter, but his confidence must be shattered given his short leash in previous weeks. If he makes a few poor decisions early on, he will be out of it mentally the rest of the game. Look for the Beaver defense to rattle Ash, and stifle the rush attack forcing the Longhorn quarterbacks to win the game…they wont…Oregon State by 6
BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL
Saturday December 29th, 10:15pm, ESPN
4 short months ago, this Michigan State Spartan team was the most hyped unit since their 1966 National Championship squad…not by us however. The loss of Kirk Cousins and BJ Cunningham were too much for this offense to overcome (109th in scoring). Their opponent, the Texas Christian Horned Frogs, went through some growing pains in their transitional season into the Big12 Conference. Facing 10 new opponents and an increased difficult schedule proved to be too much for the Frogs to handle. Despite both team’s struggles, they should be excited for this big-time matchup in the innaugral Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. Freshman QB Trevor Boykin has played well stepping in for suspended QB Casey Pachall, and looks to build off of solid performances against Texas and Oklahoma. Michigan State has relied heavily on bruising RB Le’Veon Bell who has rushed for 1648 yards. Given the Spartans struggles this season, the Dantonio grimaces have been extra cold; look for more of that in this one. Buffalo Wild Wings, known for “Beer. Wings. Sports” will have their bowl game known for “Defense. Rushing. Close Finishes” with TCU scoring late to win…TCU by 3
MUSIC CITY BOWL
Monday December 31st, Noon, ESPN
North Carolina State QB Mike Glennon could be playing his way into the first round of this April’s NFL draft after throwing for 3,648 yards and 30 touchdowns this season after losing his favorite target T.J. Graham to the NFL last season. The Wolfpack shocked the ACC—and the nation for that matter—with their victory over Florida State on October 6th. Despite a bad loss to one of the best teams in the nation, Georgia, Vanderbilt played very well this season, winning its last six games, including a 41-18 thrashing of a Tennessee team that also beat NC State in week one. Vanderbilt looks to impose its strong rushing attack on the Wolfpack defense, which allows opponents an average of 5.72 yards/play, over half a yard more than its own offense averages. In losses, North Carolina State is giving up nearly one hundred more rushing yards than in wins. In a matchup with one of the more physical, ground-and-pound offenses in the country, this is not a good matchup for the ‘Pack. While NC State is capable of playing with any team in the nation, look for the Commodores to take this one...Vanderbilt by 7
SUN BOWL
Saturday December 29th, 2pm, CBS
At the season’s beginning, Lane Kiffin and the preseason champion Trojans did not expect to be playing in El Paso against a struggling Georgia Tech team. Will Kiffin’s squad have any motivation to win this game? That will be the question as Georgia Tech’s players have certainly expressed their eagerness to play against a talented Southern California team. On paper, Matt Barkley, Marqise Lee, Robert Woods, and the rest of the USC offense are a terrible matchup for the Yellow Jacket attack that has struggled to defend the pass, which led to the firing of defensive coordinator Al Groh midseason. GT linebacker Jeremiah Attaochu led the nation in sacks in November and must get pressure on Barkley if the Yellow Jackets want to have a chance to win. On the outside, GT has three solid cornerbacks in Louis Young, Rod Sweeting, and Jemea Thomas, but will still struggle to contain USC’s receivers as every other team on the Trojans schedule has. The matchup that is more up in the air will be Georgia Tech’s rushing attack against a talented, but very inconsistent USC defense. The Trojans give up 4 yards/rush and 156 yards/game. It will be interesting to see how Georgia Tech’s QB situation plays out as Tevin Washington and Vad Lee have split time in recent weeks. Lee is the more talented, but less experienced, player that certainly can add another dimension to this offense with his passing ability. Georgia Tech still has not won a bowl game under Paul Johnson and will be determined to win this return trip to the Sun Bowl. If the Trojans can match GT’s intensity, they should be able to light up the Jackets...USC by 10
LIBERTY BOWL
Monday December 31st, 3:30pm, ESPN
Rematches are tough; just ask Nebraska. Here, Iowa State knocked off Tulsa back in week 1 posting a 38-25 win. Since then, Tulsa has gone 10-2 (4-1 vs bowl teams) claiming the Conference USA Championship with Nebraska Transfer QB Cody Green improving as the season progressed. Iowa State went just 3-6 in a tough Big12 Conference, but claimed impressive victories over TCU and Baylor. Right on cue from our August preview, the Giant Killers knocked off #15 TCU in Fort Worth. Still, the Cyclone offense has been weak this year, especially against any defense with a pulse. While Tulsa’s defense isn’t exactly elite (ranked 42nd) it will be tough enough to give QB Steele Jantz some troubles. I really like what Bill Blankenship has done at Tulsa, taking over for Todd Graham without missing a beat (18-8 in two years). Look for the Golden Hurricane to tie their school record for wins (11) and claim the Liberty Bowl title…Tulsa by 9
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
Monday December 31st, 7:30pm, ESPN
In a game that should preview two of the nation’s top teams next season, Clemson and LSU will meet on New Year’s Eve in Atlanta that will be sure to feature a plethora of future NFL players. In the final week of the season, we saw the SEC dominate the ACC, taking four head-to-head matchups and cementing once again its spot as king of the south. Clemson struggled to contain South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney, who recorded 4.5 sacks against the Tigers, and will struggle to contain Sam Montgomery, Barkevious Mingo and Lavar Edwards as LSU features some of the most talented defensive players in the country. Despite LSU’s supreme secondary talent, Clemson will have the advantage with its offensive skill players, featuring some of the most electric men with dreadlocks in the nation: RB Andre Ellington and WRs Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins. Clemson’s defense will probably be the weakest collective unit featured in this game, but a poor performance from LSU QB Zach Mettenberger can change that. Both teams had a difficult end to the season with Clemson losing to South Carolina and LSU struggling against weaker Mississippi and Arkansas teams. LSU has limited opponents to less than 17 points/game and its defense will be the key in this premiere non-BCS game...LSU by 6