CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK
Game analysis, Predictions, and Picks for the 2012 Conference Championship Games
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LOUISVILLE at RUTGERS - BIG EAST CHAMPIONSHIP
Thursday November 29th, 7:30, ESPN. AT Rutgers Stadium
While this is essentially the de facto Big East Championship game, Syracuse is not technically out of the picture, even though the world is more likely to end on December 21st than Syracuse winning the tiebreaker. IF Cincinnati were to be upset by UConn AND Louisville were to beat Rutgers AND Syracuse were to win AND Syracuse were to somehow miraculously jump BOTH Louisville AND Rutgers in the BCS rankings, then Syracuse would represent the Big East in the automatic-qualifying BCS bowl game. For all intents and purposes, we can assume that the winner of this game will win the Big East. Both squads bring different looks to the game with the Scarlet Knights boasting one of the nation’s top defenses and a ground-and-pound offense while the Cardinals bring a high-flying attack featuring one of the conference’s top two quarterbacks in Teddy Bridgewater. Both schools had extremely surprising losses last week after Rutgers was embarrassed by a newly improved Pittsburgh team and Louisville lost at home to a bad UConn team in triple overtime. Rutgers is allowing only 13.7 points per game and will be the best defense this Louisville team has faced all season. On the flip side, Bridgewater has the highest QB rating out of any of the QBs Rutgers has faced all season. A key matchup to watch will be whether or not Khaseem Greene and this Rutgers front seven can defend the run game and make the Cardinals one-dimensional; last week, the key to victory for UConn was to limit Louisville to only 27 yards rushing. I do not always have faith in the Rutgers offense, but I believe the defense will win this one for the Scarlet Knights as they go to their first BCS bowl game in program history. Rutgers by 3
UCLA at STANFORD - PAC12 CHAMPIONSHIP
Friday November 30th, 8pm, FOX. AT Stanford Stadium
All offseason, this Pac12 Championship Game was pegged as the ‘rematch’ and was supposed to feature preseason top 5 teams USC and Oregon facing off for a second time. We got the rematch, but no one expected it to be Stanford and UCLA! In a strange situation, these teams will play again just 6 days after their first matchup in Los Angeles, a game dominated by the Cardinal 35-17.
UCLA has relied on its high-powered offense to bail them out of games; an attack led by dual-threat QB Brett Hundley and RB Jonathan Franklin. However, Stanford’s strength is its stifling run defense which is ranked #1 in the nation, and clearly won Round One. The other side of the ball, Stanford offense vs. UCLA defense, is where David Shaw’s Cardinal pulls away in this matchup. Dominant rusher Stefan Taylor benefits from a powerful offensive line that will push around the Bruin front again this Friday night. QB Kevin Hogan has been very efficient; once the ground game gets going, Stanford’s play-action scheme becomes unstoppable. It is extremely difficult to defeat a team twice in a season, let alone twice in a week! And we must give credit to the coaching job by Jim Mora Jr who inherited an undisciplined and defeated program. In his first season, he won the division and more importantly, won back the city of LA with the victory over USC. But with a home, night atmosphere at Stanford Stadium, I think the Cardinal get it done. Stanford has been close to the Rose Bowl each of the past 3 seasons led by Heisman candidates Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck- look for this group to finally break through and represent the PAC 12 in Pasadena…Stanford by 9
UCLA has relied on its high-powered offense to bail them out of games; an attack led by dual-threat QB Brett Hundley and RB Jonathan Franklin. However, Stanford’s strength is its stifling run defense which is ranked #1 in the nation, and clearly won Round One. The other side of the ball, Stanford offense vs. UCLA defense, is where David Shaw’s Cardinal pulls away in this matchup. Dominant rusher Stefan Taylor benefits from a powerful offensive line that will push around the Bruin front again this Friday night. QB Kevin Hogan has been very efficient; once the ground game gets going, Stanford’s play-action scheme becomes unstoppable. It is extremely difficult to defeat a team twice in a season, let alone twice in a week! And we must give credit to the coaching job by Jim Mora Jr who inherited an undisciplined and defeated program. In his first season, he won the division and more importantly, won back the city of LA with the victory over USC. But with a home, night atmosphere at Stanford Stadium, I think the Cardinal get it done. Stanford has been close to the Rose Bowl each of the past 3 seasons led by Heisman candidates Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck- look for this group to finally break through and represent the PAC 12 in Pasadena…Stanford by 9
GEORGIA vs. ALABAMA - SEC CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday December 1st, 4pm, CBS. At Atlanta (N)
The winner goes on to play in the National Title Game against Notre Dame. The loser may not even end up in a BCS bowl. The Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs will duke this one out on the national scene in this National Semifinal game that surely will not disappoint. After big victories over their respective in-state rivals this past weekend, the two juggernauts will face each other for the first time since Alabama ruined Georgia’s infamous “blackout,” the same season that the Bulldogs were a big disappointment after being preseason number one (2008). While both teams play in the nation’s top conference, neither has played a very difficult schedule, which probably irritates the likes of Florida, Texas A&M, and LSU. Both teams have only played two top-25 teams, but the talent on both rosters is undoubtedly superb. Alabama boasts the nation’s top scoring defense and Georgia’s defensive unit is littered with NFL prospects, including Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree, John Jenkins, Bacarri Rambo and others. QBs AJ McCarron and Aaron Murray rank as the nation’s top two leaders in QB rating and will provide the opposition quite a challenge. Georgia’s front seven will need to be able to limit the Alabama rushing attack as McCarron is probably less suited to carry his team through the air. However, this will be no small challenge as the Crimson Tide offensive line is well-regarded as the best unit in the nation. Similarly, Alabama will struggle to contain Aaron Murray without a feared pass-rush, which is probably the aspect with the biggest drop off from last year’s team after losing Courtney Upshaw to the NFL. Murray struggled against South Carolina, which may not be the overall unit that Alabama is, but with Jadeveon Clowney and company there is no doubt that they can bring the pressure. With this in mind—and the fact that Georgia is playing some of its best football it has ever played—look for the Bulldogs to pull off the upset and take on the Fighting Irish in January. Georgia by 4
WISCONSIN vs. NEBRASKA - BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday December 1st, 8pm, FOX. AT Indianapolis (N)
Back in August I predicted that this would be the title game, but since I was more sure of Wisconsin’s ‘Ineligible Division’ title, I predicted them to win the conference. Now that my matchup has in fact come to fruition, I am forced to re-evaluate. Wisconsin (7-5) limps into the title game having lost the past two games in overtime, while this resilient Nebraska team surges, having executed FOUR double-digit 2nd half comebacks! I get the feeling that the mindsets of both programs are polar opposites- Wisconsin was coming off back-to-back conference titles and dominant seasons, but has now stumbled a bit after a mass exodus of coaches. Meanwhile Nebraska has been on the cusp of greatness but came up short both times, blowing 2nd half leads in both the 2009 and 2010 Big12 Conference title games. After being pushed around by Ohio State, Pelini refocused his Cornhuskers on the team goal – WIN OUT – and they have done just that, 6 straight wins. This team is determined and this group of Seniors that has been SO close, is ready to make the next step for the program.
In September, Wisconsin jumped out to a 20-3 lead due to a multitude of mistakes and turnovers- the sloppiest half of football Nebraska has played all season. Then came the comeback- a stifling Blackshirt defense set up Martinez’s clutch passing and electric scrambles. Nebraska came all the way back to win it 30-27.
It is safe to say that both teams have improved drastically since that meeting- Wisconsin has a new QB in Curt Phillips and has benefited from the resurgence of RB Montee Ball. The Huskers’ Blackshirt defense has gelled into the #1 passing defense in the nation, while Martinez has his offense playing at an elite level. I think that Nebraska is the better team, and has all the intangibles, but the difficulty of beating a team twice must not be underestimated. I think Wisconsin will have a lead at halftime, but the Husker defense will settle in early in the second half as Bielema gets conservative and run-heavy. Then the second-half Huskers keep overpowering with the run game, with well-time zone-read keepers by Martinez. In typical 2012 Husker fashion, they complete the comeback, finally win a Conference Championship, and smell the Roses of Pasadena…NEBRASKA by 7
In September, Wisconsin jumped out to a 20-3 lead due to a multitude of mistakes and turnovers- the sloppiest half of football Nebraska has played all season. Then came the comeback- a stifling Blackshirt defense set up Martinez’s clutch passing and electric scrambles. Nebraska came all the way back to win it 30-27.
It is safe to say that both teams have improved drastically since that meeting- Wisconsin has a new QB in Curt Phillips and has benefited from the resurgence of RB Montee Ball. The Huskers’ Blackshirt defense has gelled into the #1 passing defense in the nation, while Martinez has his offense playing at an elite level. I think that Nebraska is the better team, and has all the intangibles, but the difficulty of beating a team twice must not be underestimated. I think Wisconsin will have a lead at halftime, but the Husker defense will settle in early in the second half as Bielema gets conservative and run-heavy. Then the second-half Huskers keep overpowering with the run game, with well-time zone-read keepers by Martinez. In typical 2012 Husker fashion, they complete the comeback, finally win a Conference Championship, and smell the Roses of Pasadena…NEBRASKA by 7
TEXAS at KANSAS STATE
Saturday December 1st, 8pm, ABC. AT Snyder Family Stadium
Kansas State is a win away from clinching its first Conference Championship since 2003, another year where a key win over Oklahoma was also the highlight. Up until its upset loss to Baylor in Week 12, Kansas State was looking invincible with QB Collin “Optimus” Klein at the helm. KSU still has plenty to play for including the Big12 title and an automatic BCS berth to the Fiesta Bowl. Surely Coach-of-the-Year Candidate Bill Snyder refocused his team during the bye week and has re-motivated his Wildcats. Their opponent, Texas, struggled in their Thanksgiving Turkey Bowl with TCU, allowing freshman QB Boykin to beat them on Senior night. Keep in mind that Boykin and Klein are similar dual-threat quarterbacks, and this should be another struggle on the defensive side of the ball for the Longhorns. We thought that Texas would finally return to dominance this fall, but they have been quite a disappointment- especially on defense. Further, QB David Ash started the season off very well, but has reverted in recent weeks and has been benched on multiple occasions. Backup Case McCoy (Yes, Colt’s little Brother) seems to give the offense a spark but needs to limit the costly turnovers. This week, Mack Brown is electing to start McCoy, and will receive all first-team reps this week. Look for Klein to finish off an unbelievable Senior season on Senior night, re-asserting himself in the wide-open Heisman race, and for Coach Snyder to rally his Wildcats again, this time for a trip to Tempe…Kansas State by 10
FLORIDA STATE vs. GEORGIA TECH - ACC CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday December 1st, 8pm, ESPN. At Charlotte (N)
Somehow, someway, Georgia Tech finds itself in the ACC Championship Game for the second time under Paul Johnson and for the third time since the new conference was formed. It took some luck with the Miami Hurricanes self-imposed postseason ban, but Georgia Tech fans will tell you they do not care. A day ago, I would tell you that this game would not be close. The talent is not comparable; Florida State has that advantage by a wide margin. However, FSU Defensive Coordinator Mark Stoops was introduced as the new Kentucky Head Coach and this is not the week to be Coordinator-less. This Yellow Jacket spread option attack ranks as the nation’s third best rushing offense and will be facing a Seminole defense that just allowed 244 yards on the ground this past week against Florida and will also be without stud DE Tank Carradine. All things seem to be falling Georgia Tech’s way just as in their path to the Championship game. Unfortunately, Florida State’s offense has plowed through the ACC and Georgia Tech is defensively-challenged to say the least. The Seminole attack ranks eighth in the nation in points scored and only Clemson will have shown the Jackets a more potent offense this season. EJ Manuel was knocked out of the Florida game for a while, but returned and should be ready to take on this defense led by interim Defensive Coordinator Charles Kelly, who replaced Al Groh midseason. I anticipate this game to be much closer than the other pundits say for the reasons described above, and also for Florida State’s penchant for playing down to their opponent’s level more than they should. Still, I expect the Seminoles to win this game in a shootout. Florida State by 6