NFL LOCKS of the WEEK
Playoffs - Divisional Round
Record: 2-2
Wild Card
Conference Championships
Super Bowl
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
WR Demaryius Thomas
Line: Broncos by 9.5
Analysis: The Broncos will face the Baltimore Ravens in their first playoff game of the Peyton Manning era. Manning has transformed the offense from a run-heavy attack to a high-flying elite unit. Manning has turned Demaryius Thomas into one of the most dynamic playmakers in football and Eric Decker has become a top-notch second option. RB Willis McGahee cannot play this week despite returning to practice and could be added weapon next week if the Broncos win. Baltimore, in Ray Lewis' final home game, was able to effectively shut down Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts. Despite old legs and an injured arm, Lewis was certainly an asset last week as a leader and a well-prepared director of the defense. Luck's predecessor in Indianapolis will provide a more threatening attack this week as the Ravens hope to limit the Broncos to less than 34 points, which Manning and company posted the last time these two met in December. We do not see the Ravens being able to slow down these weapons on the outside while still effectively shutting down the Broncos running attack.
Pick: Denver by 13
Analysis: The Broncos will face the Baltimore Ravens in their first playoff game of the Peyton Manning era. Manning has transformed the offense from a run-heavy attack to a high-flying elite unit. Manning has turned Demaryius Thomas into one of the most dynamic playmakers in football and Eric Decker has become a top-notch second option. RB Willis McGahee cannot play this week despite returning to practice and could be added weapon next week if the Broncos win. Baltimore, in Ray Lewis' final home game, was able to effectively shut down Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts. Despite old legs and an injured arm, Lewis was certainly an asset last week as a leader and a well-prepared director of the defense. Luck's predecessor in Indianapolis will provide a more threatening attack this week as the Ravens hope to limit the Broncos to less than 34 points, which Manning and company posted the last time these two met in December. We do not see the Ravens being able to slow down these weapons on the outside while still effectively shutting down the Broncos running attack.
Pick: Denver by 13
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
LB Clay Matthews
Line: 49ers by 3
Analysis: Only six days after losing to the Vikings, the Packers displayed their true potential in a decisive 24-10 victory over Minnesota when it mattered. Vikings QB Joe Webb could be described as a poor man's Colin Kaepernick and was held to only 180 yards on 11/30 completions; to say he struggled was an understatement. Charles Woodson's return gives the Packers its stability in its secondary it has been missing and Clay Matthews has returned to his old form. After returning to the lineup in week 15, he has recorded six sacks in four games. We will somewhat overlook San Francisco's terrible loss to Seattle since there will always be aberrations at some point, but to say the Niners have been a bit below average--compared to Harbaugh's standard--would be fair. Much of that can be credited to Justin Smith's injury, which has also led to Aldon Smith's lack of production. We don't need to explain the importance of a pass rush, especially against a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have won 13 of the last 15 matchups between these two teams, and we surprisingly expect that trend to continue.
Pick: Green Bay by 3
Analysis: Only six days after losing to the Vikings, the Packers displayed their true potential in a decisive 24-10 victory over Minnesota when it mattered. Vikings QB Joe Webb could be described as a poor man's Colin Kaepernick and was held to only 180 yards on 11/30 completions; to say he struggled was an understatement. Charles Woodson's return gives the Packers its stability in its secondary it has been missing and Clay Matthews has returned to his old form. After returning to the lineup in week 15, he has recorded six sacks in four games. We will somewhat overlook San Francisco's terrible loss to Seattle since there will always be aberrations at some point, but to say the Niners have been a bit below average--compared to Harbaugh's standard--would be fair. Much of that can be credited to Justin Smith's injury, which has also led to Aldon Smith's lack of production. We don't need to explain the importance of a pass rush, especially against a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have won 13 of the last 15 matchups between these two teams, and we surprisingly expect that trend to continue.
Pick: Green Bay by 3
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
RB Marshawn Lynch
Line: Falcons by 2.5
Analysis: We were actually expecting the Seahawks to be favored with the way they have been playing, winning eight out the last nine. Couple that with Atlanta's annual postseason failures and you have a no-brainer of a pick, right? Unfortunately for Seattle, Matt Ryan has heard the doubters and this time around just seems to be the right year for him; he has elevated his play, which has resulted in an MVP-caliber season. Sure, Julio Jones has helped in his second year, catching 10 touchdowns and recording 1198 yards. Most of the talk will surround Atlanta's big, talented receiving corp matching up with Seattle's big, talented secondary. A good bet is that Atlanta will struggle to put up their usual gaudy numbers and Seattle will struggle to suffocate passing attacks like they are used to. If one unit has an advantage, it is probably the Falcons in TE Tony Gonzalez controlling the middle of the field. Also, Seattle DE Chris Clemons, who has recorded 11.5 sacks, is out for the year with a torn ACL, giving Matt Ryan even more time. Atlanta RB Michael Turner has had a quiet year only rushing for 800 yards, but should be fresher in January compared to years' past. Look for the Falcons to take care of business at home as Matt Ryan and company have something to prove.
Pick: Atlanta by 6
Analysis: We were actually expecting the Seahawks to be favored with the way they have been playing, winning eight out the last nine. Couple that with Atlanta's annual postseason failures and you have a no-brainer of a pick, right? Unfortunately for Seattle, Matt Ryan has heard the doubters and this time around just seems to be the right year for him; he has elevated his play, which has resulted in an MVP-caliber season. Sure, Julio Jones has helped in his second year, catching 10 touchdowns and recording 1198 yards. Most of the talk will surround Atlanta's big, talented receiving corp matching up with Seattle's big, talented secondary. A good bet is that Atlanta will struggle to put up their usual gaudy numbers and Seattle will struggle to suffocate passing attacks like they are used to. If one unit has an advantage, it is probably the Falcons in TE Tony Gonzalez controlling the middle of the field. Also, Seattle DE Chris Clemons, who has recorded 11.5 sacks, is out for the year with a torn ACL, giving Matt Ryan even more time. Atlanta RB Michael Turner has had a quiet year only rushing for 800 yards, but should be fresher in January compared to years' past. Look for the Falcons to take care of business at home as Matt Ryan and company have something to prove.
Pick: Atlanta by 6
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
QB Tom Brady
Line: Patriots by 9.5
Analysis: Houston should be able to put up a better fight than the last time these two teams met, resulting in a 42-14 stomping in Foxboro. Still, one thing will be the same as the last time: Tom Brady will be suiting up for the Patriots and Matt Schaub will be suiting up for the Texans. The game wasn't actually as lopsided as the score suggests; New England didn't even outgain Houston by 100 yards; both teams only turned the ball over once; and the time of possession was nearly identical. Still, Brady's precision in the red zone led to four touchdowns and no interceptions while Schaub ended up with no touchdowns and a pick. Houston will need to run the ball for more than 100 yards this time around to help Schaub out, and they are certainly capable of doing this. New England's run defense is ranked ninth in the league and Houston ranks eighth in rushing yards per game. The odds are stacked in the Patriots favor, but Houston can certainly pull off a surprise victory. However, we'll still go with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to cover the spread in this one.
Pick: New England by 14
Analysis: Houston should be able to put up a better fight than the last time these two teams met, resulting in a 42-14 stomping in Foxboro. Still, one thing will be the same as the last time: Tom Brady will be suiting up for the Patriots and Matt Schaub will be suiting up for the Texans. The game wasn't actually as lopsided as the score suggests; New England didn't even outgain Houston by 100 yards; both teams only turned the ball over once; and the time of possession was nearly identical. Still, Brady's precision in the red zone led to four touchdowns and no interceptions while Schaub ended up with no touchdowns and a pick. Houston will need to run the ball for more than 100 yards this time around to help Schaub out, and they are certainly capable of doing this. New England's run defense is ranked ninth in the league and Houston ranks eighth in rushing yards per game. The odds are stacked in the Patriots favor, but Houston can certainly pull off a surprise victory. However, we'll still go with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to cover the spread in this one.
Pick: New England by 14