The PICK SIX "Stock Market"
Who are we BUYING and SELLING in relation to the other preseason publications?
BRETT CIANCIA
August 12th, 2013
August 12th, 2013
Everyone has Alabama winning the SEC West and Ohio State winning the Leaders Division this season. For the preseason magazines and websites rated by the Stassen Accuracy Formula, these two teams are irrelevant because win or lose, everyone predicted them to finish in the same spot! Naturally, we value certain teams higher and lower than the national consensus, and our 2013 Conference Previews reflect that. The Pick Six "Stock Market" is designed to highlight which teams we have 'placed stock in' more than others. Conversely, it highlights which teams we are 'selling' this fall, teams that we feel will not be living up to the average national expectations. We have our stock ratings broken up by conference (Green means we are 'buying' and we have them rated higher than the national consensus. The number means how many spots in the standings we have moved them up or down in relation to the national average):
As you can see, the ACC rankings are very volatile, especially the bottom 5 in the Atlantic and the Top 4 in the Coastal. Not shown above is our pick to win the Atlantic (Clemson) which is roughly a 50/50 split nationally with Florida State. Clearly, we have less faith in the newcomers Pitt and Syracuse who come from the less challenging Big East, and should have difficulty adjusting to 9 new conference opponents. While the Atlantic's bottom 5 are all very close, we are slight buyers of Maryland and Wake. We also moved consensus last-place Boston College up a spot, as Coach Addazio inherits a veteran squad and will pump some much needed new energy and strategy into the program.
The BigTen Leaders Division is very straight-forward this year, with almost everyone placing Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Indiana, Purdue and Illinois 1 through 6, in that order. The Leaders Division is a little bit more wide-open, with the most popular pick being Michigan to win it. While I reserve my right to call a winner in their head-to-head matchup until November, I think Nebraska will take the division regardless. Nebraska has the favorable schedule (No OSU or Wisconsin), and the high powered offense. The defensive edge is uncertain, as both will be young. The only transaction here is a BUY for Nebraska to win the Legends, and a SELL for Michigan to place 2nd.
The most popular Big XII Champion pick is Oklahoma State, but I am more impressed with Texas. One of the most loaded rosters nationwide is ready for a breakout season for Mack Brown. Simple BUY/SELL Texas for Oklahoma State.
I have placed a lot of stock in Texas Christian this year, placing them 3rd in the Conference - higher than everyone (besides USA Today). I am expecting the Frogs to have the league's best defense, the return of an elite QB, and the benefit of 2nd-year familiarity in the Big12. I am selling Oklahoma one spot down to 4th, based on the departure of All-time passer Landry Jones, and the huge losses on the defensive side of the ball. The key matchup (TCU-OU) comes a week after Oklahoma's trip to Notre Dame, a game that will surely be physical and emotionally draining.
I have placed a lot of stock in Texas Christian this year, placing them 3rd in the Conference - higher than everyone (besides USA Today). I am expecting the Frogs to have the league's best defense, the return of an elite QB, and the benefit of 2nd-year familiarity in the Big12. I am selling Oklahoma one spot down to 4th, based on the departure of All-time passer Landry Jones, and the huge losses on the defensive side of the ball. The key matchup (TCU-OU) comes a week after Oklahoma's trip to Notre Dame, a game that will surely be physical and emotionally draining.
The Pac-12 North has 3 tiers of teams, and I stray from the consensus in two of them. In a 60/40 decision nationally, I am taking Stanford to win the division. The schedule is daunting, but if it comes down to head-to-head, I like their elite defense against the top-notch Oregon offense (inexperienced playcalling). I am SELLING Oregon State this year, as I feel they overachieved in 2012. I like Washington's experience and look for a bounce-back season from QB Keith Price (RB Sankey and TE Sefarian-Jenkins will help).
In the South, the preseason magazines were more likely to pick USC or USC to finish 1st. Here, I am BUYING Arizona State; DT Will Sutton leads one of the nation's best defensive lines, while in Year 2 of the Todd Graham era, QB Taylor Kelly looks to improve on his already amazing numbers.
In the South, the preseason magazines were more likely to pick USC or USC to finish 1st. Here, I am BUYING Arizona State; DT Will Sutton leads one of the nation's best defensive lines, while in Year 2 of the Todd Graham era, QB Taylor Kelly looks to improve on his already amazing numbers.
We may be the biggest stockholder of Ole Miss football outside of Oxford, MS. We have Ole Miss ranked higher than anyone in the nation, and are calling for them to finish ahead of LSU AND Texas A&M (2nd West). Don't forget they almost swept both last season, and return 19 starters. We look for a step back for Texas A&M and are SELLING the Aggies all the way to 4th in the West. Given his self-inflicted tumultuous offseason (and current uncertainty), we expect Johnny Manziel to come back down to earth a bit. Defensive coordinators now had an entire offseason to devise a scheme to slow Mr. Football. We are BUYING South Carolina to finish atop the East Division, above fellow heavyweights Georgia and Florida. We are also huge BUYers of Missouri, now in its second SEC season.
The American Athletic Conference (AAC) is wide open from spots 2-8, with the only locks being Louisville to win it, and Memphis/Temple to finish at the bottom. We look for a major decline for Rutgers, whose stout defense is gone. South Florida is poised to bounce back and take advantage of conference newcomers, and we moved them up FOUR spots against the consensus.