WEEK 10
Record: 3-3
VIRGINIA TECH at MIAMI (FL)
Thursday, November 1st. 7:30 PM. ESPN. AT SunLife Stadium
The Coastal Division has typically held the power in the Atlantic Coast Conference, but this season, these six teams are doing their best to collectively obtain the title, “worst division in football.” Virginia Tech is having an uncharacteristically sub-par season; Georgia Tech has been a disappointment; North Carolina has not shown much; Virginia has taken five steps back after taking a step forward last season. This leaves Miami and Duke, the only teams that have exceeded expectations. Miami is only 4-4, but three of its losses are to Kansas State, Notre Dame, and Florida State. The offense has been solid under Stephen Morris’ leadership at the QB position. However, the Hurricanes have only averaged 319 yards/game in its current three game losing streak and will look to rebound this week against a Virginia Tech defense that has been awful, allowing 24 points/game after allowing 17.6 points/game last year with a unit that returned nine starters. Logan Thomas was a preseason Heisman candidate by many publications due to a strong finish to last year’s season and a Cam Newton-esque stature. However, the offense has also been lackluster, which may be one of the main reasons for poor defensive play. This game may not have the overall appeal of our other five games, but it is a critical game in the ACC picture. Miami, North Carolina, and Duke all have three conference wins with a half-game lead over Virginia Tech. North Carolina is banned from postseason play and Duke, while improved, will probably not have enough firepower to actually take the Coastal crown. Look for the Hokies to break out on national TV and take control of the Coastal. Virginia Tech by 6
TEXAS A&M at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Saturday, November 3rd. Noon. ESPN. AT Davis Wade Stadium
Mississippi State is 7-1 heading into this top-25 matchup with its only loss coming against the nation’s premiere team: the Alabama Crimson Tide. However, what had previously looked like a flawless team—the offense was rolling under QB Tyler Russell and the Bulldogs finally had a top-10 defense—Mississippi State was exposed in its 31 point defeat to the Tide. Texas A&M has played a much tougher schedule thus far despite playing in the same division with home games, both losses, against top-10 foes Florida and LSU. Johnny Manziel has dazzled in his first year under center throwing for 2,216 yards, 16 touchdowns, and six interceptions, while adding another 13 scores on the ground. Kevin Sumlin has given Aggie fans great hope with his tremendous initial success. Both teams are certainly on the upswing under their young head coaches, but will they ascend high enough to dethrone Alabama and LSU atop the Western Division? Only time will tell, but for now both teams are very legitimate top-20 teams and this will be a grind-it-out battle. Aside from the LSU game, Manziel has been surprisingly smart with the ball and has avoided turnovers, which will need to be done to win this game. Similarly, his counterpart, MSU QB Tyler Russell has avoided turnovers only throwing two on the season. With playmakers like Aggie pass rusher Damontre Moore and Bulldog CB Johnthan Banks, it will be crucial for each team to take care of the ball. In the end, Johnny Manziel will be too much to handle for the Bulldogs, and I have faith in him to play smart. Texas A&M by 4
TCU at WEST VIRGINIA
Saturday, November 3rd. 3pm. FOX. AT Milan Puskar Stadium
This matchup serves as the ‘Big 12 Newcomers Bowl’ with both teams feeling the transitional effects in their inaugural season in the conference. Both teams, after flying out of the starting gates, are coming off of back-to-back losses. West Virginia QB Geno Smith has come back down to Earth after his incredible start struggling in the two losses; meanwhile, TCU was forced to move on after starting QB Casey Pachall was kicked off the team for a DUI. Backup QB (freshman) Trevone Boykin has played solid (11 TD – 6 INT 62%) in relief for Pachall, despite the teams three losses. Boykin, if his knee injury is minimal, should be able to score some points against this awful WV defense which is ranked 119th in Division 1. However, TCU is coming off a beatdown in Stillwater, and has to travel again out to Morgantown. Here the WV team has been waiting for 14 days to avenge their blowout loss to KSU. With the BYE week, I am confident that Coach Dana Holgerson has fixed the offensive issues, and refocused the squad. No team needed that bye week more than the Mountaineers, and I think they will play with fire Saturday. Smith will play more like his first 5 games than the past 2; West Virginia sends a wounded Horned Frog team home with their 4th loss (as we predicted in August, TCU will fail to reach double-digit wins for first time since 2007)…West Virginia by 7
TEXAS at TEXAS TECH
Saturday, November 3rd. 3:30pm. ABC. AT Jones AT&T Stadium
“TOUCHDOWN RED RAIDERS, with a SECOND TO GO” - Who could forget the last-second Graham Harrell to Michael Crabtree TD that ended the Longhorn’s National Championship hopes in 2008. But since then, the Chancellor’s Spurs have been returned to Austin, with Texas winning the last 3 battles. This season, the teams enter with identical records, but the perceptions of each are vastly different from what was expected preseason. The Texas defense has been one of the worst units nationwide (100th) despite multiple NFL prospects. The Longhorn offense has been the only thing keeping the season afloat, but all of a sudden, we have a quarterback controversy between David Ash and Case McCoy. Despite Mack Brown declaring Ash the starter, the late-game benching has to weigh emotionally on the sophomore. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders of Texas Tech have surprised most, with their 6-2 start and destruction of then-#5 West Virginia. Texas allowed 48 points to WV, a similar pass-heavy offense to Texas Tech, so I look for QB Seth Doege to continue his success (30 TD 70%, most passing TD in division 1) Saturday. I think Ash will need a few possessions to regain confidence that was shattered in the Kansas debacle. On the other side of the ball, Doege will pick apart the Longhorn secondary in front of Red Raider Nation…Texas Tech by 6
OREGON at USC
Saturday, November 3rd. 7pm. FOX. AT LA Colosseum
This was supposed to be the first of two Top 10 matchups between these teams, with a PAC-12 title and National Championship berth on the line; only one team has lived up to the hype. USC, as usual under Kiffin, has failed to live up to expectations. Matt Barkley, playing solid but not elite, has completely fallen off of the Heisman radar, while his defense imploded in their loss to Arizona. Kiffin has one of the most talented teams in the nation on paper, as USC always does, but has yet again failed to maximize the potential and stay focused in every game. USC limps into this matchup with the South Division way up in the air. The Kiffins have their hands full with this Duck offensive attack; Oregon beat Arizona 49-0…Arizona beat USC 39-36. While the transitive property doesn’t apply to college football, it is still nonetheless indicative of Oregon’s dominance thus far. The Ducks closest game was a 17-point win over Fresno State, the rest have been by 3+ TD’s. Obviously Oregon has the nation’s top offense, but much overlooked is their defense that is ranked 24th in scoring, despite being on the field for majorities of games with UO’s quick score offense. This unit is flying under the radar and should give Barkley some trouble. The biggest issue will be containing WR Marquise Lee who had 345 yards last week. If all else fails, Oregon will still be able to out-score USC, with their potent offense torching Kiffin’s defense again (53 points in ’10, 35 points in ’11). The Ducks reclaim some national attention after this ‘big-name’ win…Oregon by 13
ALABAMA at LSU
Saturday, November 3rd. 8pm. CBS. AT Tiger Stadium
At this time last season, Alabama and LSU were heads and shoulders above everyone else as they were preparing for their “Game of the Century” matchup in Tuscaloosa that ended with the visiting Tigers on top 9-6. Then, after much debate, Alabama was awarded a spot in the National Title Game despite playing in the SEC Title Game. In the end, it was evident that the Crimson Tide were worthy of this position as they showed off their all-time great defense in a 21-0 shutout of LSU last January. Somehow, managing to replace five top-35 NFL draft picks, the Crimson Tide have reloaded and appear to be just as strong as they were last season, signifying that Nick Saban’s program is truly a modern-age dynasty. LSU, while still ranked fifth nationally, has seen a drop off from last year. The Tigers lost perhaps the best cornerback duo in college football history in Morris Claiborne (NFL draft) and Tyranne Mathieu (ineligible). While not up to last year’s standard, the Tiger defense is still the reason why LSU is 7-1 and in the hunt for the National Title, ranking 9th nationally in scoring defense. The offense has been less potent this season under new QB Zach Mettenberger; last year, this unit averaged 35.7 points/game while this year the attack is only averaging 31.0 points/game. AJ McCarron has given the Tide improved QB play this season and is quietly building a nice Heisman campaign, posting the nation’s highest QB rating and throwing for 18 TDs and zero interceptions. Look for the Bama offensive line and McCarron’s efficient play to be the difference in this game as the Tide shutdown Mettenberger and wear down the LSU defense. In one of the toughest venues in all of sports, I expect Alabama to go into Death Valley at night and prove why they are the gold standard in college football. Alabama by 14