WEEK 11
Record: 4-2
FLORIDA STATE at VIRGINIA TECH
Thursday, November 8th, 8pm, ESPN. AT Lane Stadium
After outgaining Clemson by over 100 yards two weeks ago, I thought Virginia Tech was starting to piece its season back together after a rocky start. If history told us anything, Virginia Tech would do just that. However, this season has been like no other for the Hokies in recent memory. They have already recorded the most losses in a season since 2003—they finished 8-5—and have given up 7.4 more points/game than their previous 5 year average. Thursday night, they hope to avoid embarrassment against a Florida team for the second straight week as they take on the Florida State Seminoles after losing to Miami by 18 points in primetime last week. Virginia Tech will be happy to return to Lane Stadium, the only venue where the Hokies have earned a victory this year, to take on their toughest opponent yet. FSU boasts a defense that only allows 12 points/game and will provide all sorts of problems for the turnover-prone Logan Thomas. Not only did VT outgain Clemson in its loss two weeks ago, but it outgained Miami in its loss last week. The difference has been costly turnovers as the Hokies have a combined -6 turnover margin for these games, with Logan Thomas throwing four interceptions. While Miami and Clemson certainly have talented, opportunistic defenses, this Seminole unit is an entirely different monster that features some of the most talented players in the country including DEs Cornellius Carradine and Bjoern Werner who have 8 sacks apiece and will put pressure on Thomas like he hasn’t seen before. While I will concede the fact that Frank Beamer's men are playing better than sub-.500 ball like their record would suggest, they have consistently made the same mistakes throughout the season and give me no reason to think that they will change. If they do, they are serious upset contenders in this matchup, but FSU provides too tough a task for the Hokies and should take this game easily. The line is FSU by 14.5. Florida State covers.
HARVARD at PENN
Saturday, November 10th. Noon. NBC Sports. AT Franklin Field
For the first time ever, Pick Six is throwing in a preview to Division 1AA (FCS) in a matchup that will essentially decide the prestigious Ivy League. I was lucky enough to attend ESPN College Gameday’s first ever non-Division 1A program here at Franklin Field (2002), in which Lee Corso dressed up as Ben Franklin himself! That historic matchup ended up a huge victory for the Quakers- look for the opposite this Saturday. Harvard is on pace to shatter all major school records for offense, as they average 44.8 a game in Ivy League play. With talented QB Colton Chapple at the helm, their conference wins have all been blowouts, capped off with last week’s 69-0 drubbing of Columbia. Meanwhile, UPenn has squeaked by in their 4 league victories; the average score in conference play: 23-21. Look for Harvard to clinch its 7th Ivy League title under long-time coach Tim Murphy. I recommend watching for a little and getting a feel for Ivy League football at its finest; these players truly define the term student-athletes, and are superior both in the classroom and on the gridiron. Harvard by 13
OREGON STATE at STANFORD
Saturday, November 10th. 3pm. FOX. AT Stanford Stadium
While they may lack the national attention, explosive offenses, and star players of their in-state rivals, these teams are ranked in the top 15 and very much in the thick of the Pac-12 Championship race. The squads are very similar, with defense leading the way (each team ranked top 20 in scoring defense). While the offenses haven’t been up to par with the conference elites of Oregon, USC, or UCLA, they have been efficient for the most part and enough to win 7 games already. Oregon State has more of an aerial assault, while Stanford is all about running the ball and controlling the line of scrimmage. Stanford RB Stefan Taylor is one of the nations finest, and will be a workhorse in this one, especially with QB Chris Hogan making his first collegiate start. Hogan adds a new dimension to the Stanford offensive attack- QB mobility. Will Oregon State be fully prepared despite not knowing Stanford’s new arsenal? Further, Stanford has played extremely well against the pass, highlighted in their 21-14 win over Matt Barkley’s USC Trojans. I think Stanford’s strong defense, and new wrinkle at QB pull out the key Pac-12 North victory for the hometown Cardinal. Stanford by 6
TEXAS A&M at ALABAMA
Saturday, November 10th. 3:30. CBS. AT Bryant-Denny Stadium
Johnny Manziel has been spectacular all season long for the Aggies scoring 31 total touchdowns and completing 66.6% of his passes. The Texas A&M offensive attack ranks fourth in the nation with 44.7 points/game and has scored over 30 points in every game with the exception of the LSU and Florida games.
Unfortunately for A&M, this Bama defense most closely resembles the LSU and Florida defenses if compared to other opponents, and may be even better. Nick Saban has turned Alabama into a machine that seemingly brainwashes players into being disciplined, talented, hard-nosed football players that simply do not lose. Manziel is certainly talented and productive, but he is still in his first year under center and is less than a
year removed from a spring game performance that was plagued with inconsistency and mistakes. He is far from a finished product under coaches Kevin Sumlin and Kliff Kingsbury. In Alabama’s two worst defensive performances of the season—Tennessee and LSU—they have been vulnerable to big-armed pro-style QBs in Tyler Bray and Zach Mettenberger. While I do not think Alabama could compete with some NFL teams like Steve Spurrier has recently suggested, I would concede that this Crimson Tide defense most closely resembles an NFL defense in terms of talent and scheme compared to its college counterparts. With this analogy in mind, it’s going to take a prolific QB from the pocket to have success on this defense, not a 5'11" dual-threat freshman, regardless of how talented that player may be. Not to mention, Alabama has a physical offensive line that should be able to wear down this Aggie defense just as LSU and Florida did. While contemplating a potential upset in this game is intriguing, let’s be realists here and give credit to Nick Saban and his undisputed number-one team. Alabama by 14.
Unfortunately for A&M, this Bama defense most closely resembles the LSU and Florida defenses if compared to other opponents, and may be even better. Nick Saban has turned Alabama into a machine that seemingly brainwashes players into being disciplined, talented, hard-nosed football players that simply do not lose. Manziel is certainly talented and productive, but he is still in his first year under center and is less than a
year removed from a spring game performance that was plagued with inconsistency and mistakes. He is far from a finished product under coaches Kevin Sumlin and Kliff Kingsbury. In Alabama’s two worst defensive performances of the season—Tennessee and LSU—they have been vulnerable to big-armed pro-style QBs in Tyler Bray and Zach Mettenberger. While I do not think Alabama could compete with some NFL teams like Steve Spurrier has recently suggested, I would concede that this Crimson Tide defense most closely resembles an NFL defense in terms of talent and scheme compared to its college counterparts. With this analogy in mind, it’s going to take a prolific QB from the pocket to have success on this defense, not a 5'11" dual-threat freshman, regardless of how talented that player may be. Not to mention, Alabama has a physical offensive line that should be able to wear down this Aggie defense just as LSU and Florida did. While contemplating a potential upset in this game is intriguing, let’s be realists here and give credit to Nick Saban and his undisputed number-one team. Alabama by 14.
KANSAS STATE at TCU
Saturday, November 10th. 7pm. FOX. AT Amon Carter Stadium
With three games remaining, who would have thought the nation’s #2 team would be Bill Snyder’s Wildcats from Kansas State? Most of America, us included, had KSU pegged as a middle-of-the-pack Big12 team, and on the fringe of the Top25. Oh how they have proved everyone wrong! Their unstoppable machine of a quarterback Collin Klein is atop the Heisman race, but an unidentified head injury puts his status at ‘questionable.’ Klein has put in a running workload that rivals any big-name running back, and we were wondering if he could survive another similar season. Their backup QB Daniel Sams is actually a similar player with athleticism and patience as a runner, playing well in the second half against Oklahoma State as Klein was sidelined. Klein or no Klein, I feel confident in KSU’s ability on offense. Another major question will be the mental state of TCU, fresh off their incredible overtime win at West Virginia. This is a textbook ‘letdown’ game for TCU, but the fact that the #2 team in the land is coming to town should aid that. Despite Gary Patterson’s success at TCU, I have no reason to pick against KSU who simply have shown no flaws in their first 9 wins. Kansas State by 7 (more with healthy Klein)
MISSISSIPPI STATE at LSU
Saturday, November 10th. 7pm. ESPN. AT Tiger Stadium
LSU is coming off of a heartbreaking loss to Alabama that was decided in the last 30 seconds of the game and now the Tigers have no shot at a National Title. This would be a classic let-down game for LSU if Mississippi State showed any signs of having a pulse last week against Texas A&M in which the Bulldogs were outgained by 383 yards in front of its home crowd. Basically, Mississippi State is not who we thought they were. LSU may have exceeded its typical level of play last week under the lights of Death Valley in front of a national audience, but there is certainly reason for optimism if you are a Tiger fan. First, we finally saw the Zach Mettenberger we were expecting to start the season as he threw for 298 yards and a touchdown against a defense littered with future NFL players and led the offensive attack to 435 yards; Bama had previously held every opponent to under 282 yards. The Tigers played like the number one team in the country last week, not Alabama. This week, Mississippi State comes to Tiger Stadium to end its three week gauntlet against the top three teams in the West. LSU, thus far, has shown it is arguably the best team in the division while MSU has been outclassed by the Tide and Aggies. While it would not surprise me if a top 10 team went down this week, I have confidence it will not be the Tigers. LSU by 17