WEEK 5
Record: 5-1
BAYLOR at WEST VIRGINIA
Saturday, September 29th, Noon, FX. AT Milan-Puskar Stadium
In a surprisingly close game against the Maryland Terrapins, West Virginia finally showed signs of slowing up. PickSix’s Heisman frontrunner Geno Smith played well, throwing for 338 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions, but the offensive line struggled to protect Smith and could not get the run game going; the Mountaineers ran the ball 25 times, the result: 25 yards. While Maryland isn’t going to be mistaken as world-beaters, the defensive front seven admittedly has some playmakers including All-American Joe Vellano. Still, aside from Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, and Stedman Bailey, this explosive offense has been unspectacular. Unless the Mountaineers can find a solution to their offensive line woes, they cannot be considered as national title contenders because the defense is not an elite unit either. In its first Big-12 matchup, West Virginia takes on the newly-ranked Baylor Bears, who have been a surprise team this season after losing Heisman-winner Robert Griffin III; QB Nick Florence has been the reason for success leading the Bears offense that has put up 51.3 points per game. WR Terrance Williams will provide matchup problems for this West Virginia defense that has not been all that impressive. While both teams have played easy schedules—albeit Maryland was a good warm up game for WVU and Louisiana Monroe is playing at a silly level—thus far, it is evident that both offenses will be the strengths of each respective team and while neither defense is great, the West Virginia unit has appeared to be better. Expect a shootout, but ultimately Geno Smith making the difference at home. West Virginia by 10
OHIO STATE at MICHIGAN STATE
Saturday, September 29th, 3:30, ABC. AT Spartan Stadium
Last year in Columbus, Michigan State completely shutdown the Buckeye offense and held them to a mere 178 total yards in the 10-7 Spartan victory. 3 major events have happened since last September that can sway the result to the Scarlet and Gray: The hiring of offensive guru Urban Meyer, the development (and brilliance) of young QB Braxton Miller, and the departure of MSU’s all-time passer and receiver. So far in 2012, Ohio State has had trouble dominating inferior opponents, but still enters conference play undefeated. Michigan State enters 3-1 after beating Boise State in the opener, then falling to Notre Dame 20-3. The strengths of these teams are exact opposites: MSU has a stagnant offense struggling to move the ball, while OSU has a dynamic Heisman contender at the helm. On defense, MSU has been very strong, allowing just 11 points per game, while OSU has let some lesser opponents move the ball at ease. While MSU has already had 2 marquee games to prepare for, this is Urban Meyer’s first real test…you better believe he’s been scheming for this conference opener since August. This time around, I'm taking Meyer’s offense (Miller, Smith, Brown, Hall, and Stoneburner) over Dantonio’s defense (Gholston, Adams, and Bullough). ‘Go Bucks’ over ‘Go Green.’ Ohio State by 4
TENNESSEE at GEORGIA
Saturday, September 29th, 3:30, CBS. AT Sanford Stadium
Aside from the last couple years, this has traditionally been an absolute war. There is no love lost when both of these teams take the field and while Tennessee slipped up against Florida, Georgia will not be taking the Volunteers lightly. Perhaps the top two quarterbacks in the conference will be featured in this matchup between Georgia’s Aaron Murray and Tennessee’s Tyler Bray, who threw for 401 yards last week in a win against Akron. WRs Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson will be matchup problems for UGA on the outside as Bray looks to exploit a secondary that may still be without All-American safety Bacarri Rambo who is suspended indefinitely (but rumors suggest he will play this week). In addition to Rambo’s suspension, the Dawgs would sure like stud LB Alec Ogletree back from suspension as well. The pass rush has been solid led by Jarvis Jones, but having Ogletree back would help as UGA must be able to pressure Tyler Bray if it doesn’t want to find itself in a shootout. The Georgia offense has been prolific, averaging 47.5 points per game. Tennessee has not seen a unit like this one yet and will struggle to keep Georgia under 35. While Georgia doesn’t have a player like Justin Hunter on the outside, they do have a very deep stable of skill players that Aaron Murray will find if he is given time. These games are always difficult to predict and while UGA has shown no signs of weakness, the Bulldogs are typically vulnerable at the beginning of the season. That being said, the Bulldogs look like legitimate national title contenders for the first time in a while. Georgia by 14
VIRGINIA TECH vs CINCINNATI
Saturday, September 29th, 3:30, ESPNU. FedEx Field (N)
Well this game should be easy to predict; Pittsburgh defeated Virginia Tech 35-17 and lost to Cincinnati 34-10. Wrong. The transitive property does not work in sporting events, and surely not in college football. Virginia Tech is always good for an early season blunder and Pittsburgh is consistently inconsistent. Virginia Tech certainly has kinks to work out on the offensive side of the ball; the unit only returned three starters from last year and Logan Thomas isn’t the Heisman contender we were thinking he could be to start the season. Still, Thomas is a very good quarterback and the defense is a very good unit. Still, Cincinnati is a very solid team and its defense is one of the best in the Big East. Munchie Legaux has done a nice job in his first full season as starter, throwing for 413 yards and four touchdowns in two games. The Bearcats played Delaware State two weeks ago and were off last week, so they have probably been looking forward to this game since the victory over Pittsburgh on September 6th. The offense was unspectacular against Delaware State only scoring 23 points against a much weaker opponent. This game has the potential to be very low scoring as both squads are defense-oriented. Bud Foster fixed his problems from week three against Pittsburgh by pitching a shutout against Bowling Green, another weak opponent, but there is something to be said about taking care of business against a team that just doesn’t stack up. Look for the Hokies to be more focused this go-around against a Big East opponent. Virginia Tech by 10
TEXAS at OKLAHOMA STATE
Saturday, September 29th, 7:50, FOX. AT Boone Pickens Stadium
This Big12 series has been very competitive the last 5 years, with the Cowboys winning the last 2 meetings. This is a new look offense for Oklahoma State Coach Mike Gundy, who will start a freshman at quarterback with the absence of an All-American target at WR for the first time in 4 seasons. Heading into the season, the defense was supposed to be the strength of Gundy’s squad, however they were exposed giving up 59 points in the loss to Arizona. If that game is any indication, it could be a long night for the ‘Pokes in Stillwater. For the first time since the Colt McCoy era, a powerful offense has returned to the Longhorns. Led by QB David Ash (703 yards, 73%, 7 TD to 0 INT) and a stable of running backs (Brown, Bergeron, and Gray), Texas should have no problem moving the ball. As mentioned above, on paper heading into the season, Oklahoma State and Texas both boasted the two best defenses in the conference- only one, the Longhorns, has lived up to the billing. Look for the strong UT defensive-line to force the freshmen quarterbacks (starter still not official) into forced passes and turnovers. Texas will enter the hostile night environment at Stillwater, and leave with a Big12 conference victory. Texas by 13
WISCONSIN at NEBRASKA
Saturday, September 29th, 8:00, ABC. AT Memorial Stadium
Nebraska and Wisconsin will be unrecognizable Saturday night in Lincoln due to the Adidas special one-game uniform set. How Adidas persuaded legend coach and current Athletic Director Tom Osborne into wearing black helmets for the first time in Nebraska history, we simply will never know. After the initial shock of the uniforms wears off, it is still a key BigTen battle, with two run-based offenses. Wisconsin has underperformed this fall, with unimpressive victories and an upset loss to Oregon State. Meanwhile the Husker offense has been lethal, with a strong rushing attack AND efficient passing from Taylor Martinez. The issue with the 2012 Huskers is the defensive unit that simply couldn’t stop UCLA in the upset loss. Montee Ball is still questionable for Wisconsin; Rex Burkhead is back and looking healthy. Coach Bret Bielima started QB Joel Stave in favor of Maryland transfer Danny O’Brien, who has struggled. While the Husker D is far from elite, it should be able to stop this stagnant UW offense. In Pelini's first four-plus seasons, there has been a recurring struggle with mobile quarterbacks; his match-read coverage puts the back 7 in a quasi-man to man coverage, failing to account for a scrambling QB. Luckily for the Huskers this week, Stave will remain in the pocket, and should mean some coverage sacks are evident. After gaining an early lead, Martinez will lead a balanced offense and bounce back from his horrendous 2011 meeting with the Badgers. The black helmets will be 1-0 all-time after Saturday, as the Huskers defend Memorial Stadium. Nebraska by 10