2013 Big XII

2013 BIG XII CONFERENCE PREVIEW

By Brett Ciancia
August 1st, 2013

In our initial Preseason Top 25 of 2012, we took some heat from loyal PickSixNation members about the absence of Kansas State. I admit that we undervalued Collin "Optimus" Klein and the miracle worker Bill Snyder, but no one outside of the Little Apple saw an 11-1 Big12 Championship coming. This year Klein is gone, along with almost every Big12 starting QB. The Landry Jones era is over in Norman .. Geno Smith is up in 'Butt-fumble' Country .. Nick Florence and Seth Doege also leave after productive senior seasons.
Is this the year that Texas finally converts the on-paper talent into wins? I say yes. Mack Brown has the most complete team in the league, and will finally return to prominence. Oklahoma State has the most explosive offense, Texas Christian the strongest defense. I have TCU rated higher than everyone else in the nation, because of the return of Casey Pachall, the elite defense, and a new sense of familiarity in the league. Ultimately, I see Texas winning the Big12 and heading to the Fiesta Bowl.

1. TEXAS LONGHORNS

QB David Ash

DE Jackson Jeffcoat

Marcell Dareus’ crushing hit on Colt McCoy early in the 2009 BCS Championship Game killed the Longhorns title chances and symbolically took the momentum out of the entire program, crippling Burnt Orange Nation’s spirits. Following that rare losing season (5-7) in 2010, Texas has improved in the win-loss column but has continued to under-achieve given their annual recruiting hauls. Last August, we thought we would see a return of the dominant Longhorn brand of football, but again UT failed to live up to expectations. That assessment may have been a year off, as the 2013 Texas team looks poised to restore the glory to a historic program that has started to loose its grip on its Conference and home state.

The problem with the 2012 Longhorns surely wasn’t on offense, as last year’s unit averaged over 35 points per game, its most since the 2009 title run. 10 starters return, led by QB David Ash, who through the first month of the season was a common fixture on Heisman lists. Ash slowed up a bit from his efficient start, but was not helped by his bruised ribs. He should be even more comfortable in his second full season starting – it sure helps to have the conference’s best line in front of him. Each starting lineman returns, and all 5 are talented enough to be in the discussion for All-Big12 honors. The stout line will be opening up running lanes for a stable of blue-chip backs, a unit that has two RB’s that were ranked #1 in their respective recruiting classes (Jonathan Gray and Malcolm Brown). 5 of the top 6 receivers also return, led by 4th year starter Mike Davis, and the reliable (and familiar) Jaxon Shipley. This Longhorn offense has unlimited potential, is elite at all position levels, and will be the top unit in a Big12 Conference lacking its usual firepower.

Here lies the problem for Mack Brown’s Longhorns: the defense allowed 40+ points 4 times, losing 3. The 29.2 points allowed per game is the programs worst since before the 2005 title team. Losing Jordan Hicks and Jackson Jeffcoat early last season clearly hurt, but these defensive collapses are inexcusable for a team that wants to return to an elite level. Will this side of the ball wake up? We think so. DE Jeffcoat and CB Quandre Diggs are both All-American candidates, and will lead a more veteran defense than recent years (9 returning starters). With Jordan Hicks returning to the middle-level of the defense, the unit looks solid at each level.

After another beatdown in the Red River Rivalry, and the resurgence of the Texas A&M, Baylor and TCU programs, Texas appears to be losing the grip on its conference and home state. Fortunately, this 2013 squad has all the pieces to reclaim its elite status, and win its first Big12 title in 4 seasons. 2 intriguing non-conference games (at BYU, vs. Ole Miss) precede the normal Big12 schedule. Texas gets Oklahoma State at home, and Oklahoma at Dallas, and an extra week to prepare for a roadtrip to Fort Worth (TCU). The conference’s most talented team is also its most experienced; Texas will put together the pieces and win the Big12.

2. OKLAHOMA STATE

WR's Tracy Moore and Josh Stewart

With the departures of All-Time passer Brandon Weeden and 2nd All-Time Receiver Justin Blackmon, Mike Gundy had some restructuring to tend to on offense last offseason. Statistically, the offense didn’t drop off too much, but team-wise the Cowboys took a step back from their elite, near-Championship level 2011 season. 4 conference losses in which OSU gave up 40+ forced Gundy to re-evaluate his program, namely his staff. This season, Oklahoma State will undergo the rare process of introducing new coordinators on both sides of the ball (OC Mike Yurcich and DC Glenn Spencer).

The Cowboy offense has averaged over 40 points per game in 4 of the last 5 seasons, and should eclipse that mark yet again. With the Weeden era over there was uncertainty at the QB position; this fall there is still uncertainty but in a better sense of the word, as 3 quarterbacks all excelled at different moments last season. Despite the transfer of Wes Lunt, the other two QB’s (Clint Chelf and J.W. Walsh) are very skilled. I expect the offensive strategy to mostly stay the same here, but whenever a new Offensive Coordinator is brought in, its tougher to gauge. The 1-2 punch of receivers Josh Stewart and Charlie Moore characterize the best WR unit in the conference. The offensive line is capable, but the key loss is the workhorse RB Joseph Randle who gave this offense 20+ carries a game and rushed for 1457 yards. Such a fixture will be tough to replace, for the new coordinator (promoted from D-2 Shippensburg).

Similar to the issues with other Big12 Contender Texas, the Cowboys have fallen victim to defensive collapses. The good news is that there is no lack of playmakers – on each level of the defense! Calvin Barnett (DT), Shaun Lewis (LB), and Daytawion Lowe (S) will be the on-field leaders for this unit, but the off-field leader is a major question mark. New Defensive Coordinator Glenn Spencer has been away from College Football for 6 seasons; the Big12 is quite different than the NFC East!

Fortunately for Oklahoma State, their schedule is back-loaded, with no key matchups until later in the season, giving ample time for development under the new staff. Another plus for OSU is that 4 of their 5 toughest games are all in Stillwater. While their roadtrip to Austin may decide the Conference, Cowboy fans have their eyes fixed on Bedlam Game, the season finally that crushed their hearts last November. Oklahoma State should reclaim the State Title and return to the Top 15 for most of the season.

3. TEXAS CHRISTIAN

DE Devonte Fields and CB Jason Verrett

Long-time Non-AQ Power TCU moved up to the Big12 Conference last fall, and the Frogs encountered their fair share of growing pains. The suspension of their star QB (who was leading the nation in QB Efficiency), the unfamiliarity of 9 new conference teams, and a gauntlet of 5 ranked opponents out of their final 6 games, all helped contribute to the lowest win total at TCU since 2004.

Riding a 4-game win streak and a #13 spot in the AP Poll, TCU was opening their inaugural Big12 season well. Then off-the-field trouble struck the program, as star QB Casey Pachall was arrested (DWI) and immediately suspended. Pachall has returned, and TCU hopes its star can reclaim his early 2012 efficiency. He loses his top receiver and running back, however the returning skill players have enough potential to help fix the offense that sputtered in the second-half of 2012. Nebraska transfer RB Aaron Green shined in his limited playing time as a Husker, and is poised for a breakout season as the feature back. Even without Boyce, the receiver set is still solid- Brandon Carter and LaDarius Brown provide Pachall a dangerous 1-2 punch. The biggest question mark on this squad (besides Pachall’s full return) is the performance of the shaky offensive line.

The problems surely wont arise from this side of the ball; Gary Patterson repeatedly develops one of the nation’s top defensive units. Despite two years of sub-par TCU defense, this fall 9 starters return with a wealth of experience and talent. Losing Devonte Fields for two games will hurt, but is ultimately a non-factor to the league race. Fields, Chucky Hunter, and Davion Pierson represent the leagues toughest defensive front, while CB Jason Verrett leads the secondary as a consensus preseason All-American. In his 4-2-5 defense, Patterson has 3 Safeties (Olabode, Hackett, and Carter) that are in the All-Conference discussion. In what some consider a “down year” offensively in the conference, this veteran and star-studded defense should be league-best.

Beyond the on-the-field analysis, other intangibles factor into my high rating of the TCU Horned Frogs. Changing conferences is difficult in the short-term as game prep for 9 new opponents is simply overwhelming. In its second season here in the Big12, a certain familiarity has been established. Throw in the leagues best defense and the return of star QB Casey Pachall, and Fort Worth has a legit conference contender. With Oklahoma coming off a slugfest in South Bend, look for TCU to ‘upset’ the Sooners in early October, en route to a top 3 conference finish. Yes, the season-opener vs. LSU will be difficult, but in terms of the Big12, I have high expectations for Texas Christian.

4. OKLAHOMA

RB Damian Williams wears the Golden Hat with Sooner Nation

“Big Game” Bob Stoops – the infamous nickname seems to mock the long-time Sooner Coach, as he continues to struggle in those ‘big games.’ Oklahoma was our National Champion selection last August (at least they did better than Consensus pick USC), but in their 3 biggest games – they looked dysfunctional and vastly underperformed, losing by 5, 17, and 28. The Landry Jones era is over, and OU must also rebuild Stoops’ worst points per game defense in recent memory. Can Oklahoma reclaim the conference, or are the cracks in the armor becoming more severe?

Gone is Landry Jones, the steady 4-year starter who finished as Oklahoma’s Career Passing Leader (3rd in NCAA History). New Starter Blake Bell has been used heavily in short-yardage run situations (24 Rush TD), earning him the nickname – “BELL-Dozer,” but has little to no experience passing or leading the true offense. Fortunately for Bell, an excellent supporting cast surrounds him. RB’s Damien Williams and Brennan Clay may be the best duo in the league, and the offensive line (4 returning starters) is also top-notch. Kenny Stills and former PennSt-transfer Justin Brown are gone, but WR’s Jalen Saunders and Sterling Shepard will provide solid targets for Bell. Will spring game legend Trey Metoyer finally live up to the hype? The main questions here regard the offensive strategy: will OU adapt to the strengths of their new QB? will it be different from the usual up-tempo, air-raid attack? Bell is a more-than-capable passer, but his running success should be featured in the new scheme.

Oklahoma’s defense weakened as the season progressed, and gave up 34, 49, and 48 in consecutive shootout wins. Heisman Winner Johnny Manziel undressed them in the national spotlight in the 41-13 Cotton Bowl blowout. Perhaps the return of Defensive Coordinator Mike Stoops was an issue as the season progressed…can the Stoops brothers rebuild this unit this fall? Numerous star players from last year are gone, as just 4 starters return. The secondary takes a big hit, but also returns the teams best player, All-American candidate Aaron Colvin (CB). Oklahoma has always recruited well, and Sooner faithful claim this is a reloading defense, not a rebuilding one. This is the 4th least experienced defense in the BCS in regards to tackles returning (40%).

Oklahoma already lost its grip on the conference last fall; will OU also lose the State Title this fall? There are too many significant holes on defense, and some uncertainty offensively in regards to new strategy and QB transition for OU to be considered a Big12 favorite. After 3 tune-up games in Norman, the Sooners travel to South Bend for a rematch with Notre Dame. Win or lose, this game will be extremely physical; OU will be worn down for their next two games (both critical) with TCU and Texas. I predict OU to start October 0-2 in these two key Big12 games…after some easier opponents (and an intriguing Thursday trip to Baylor), the Bedlam Game looms largely. In front of revenge-crazed ‘Poke fans, Oklahoma State will steal the Bedlam Bell from OU.

5. BAYLOR

RB Lache Seastrunk

Two years ago, no one in Waco, Texas could have scripted the boom of the football program: a Heisman Winner, a victory over Oklahoma, another nation-leading passer the following year, and two straight 20+ point bowl wins. I can’t say no one saw this coming; Coach Art Briles had a vision of the program since day 1, and infamously told a high-school aged RGIII that he would be a Heisman contender. The Baylor football brand is being built from the ground up, both figuratively and literally, as they are installing a state-of-the-art stadium (live webcam here). In his 6th year, Briles is poised to prove yet again that Baylor is a program to be taken seriously, both on the Texas recruiting trail and on the Big12 gridiron.

The torch has been passed to QB Bryce Petty, who is drawing great off-season hype. He has been in the system for 3 years now, and is ready to run the show. Joining him in the backfield are two running backs worthy of 1000+ yard seasons: Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin. In December it was Seastrunk that boldly predicted he would win the 2013 Heisman. Despite those self-inflicted high expectations, Seastrunk should still be one of the nation’s best and both RBs will produce. With 2nd all-time WR Terrance Williams departing, the door is open for younger, talented prospects to emerge; Briles has recently been succeeded in recruiting talent and speed. Keep an eye on big Cyril Richardson who is perhaps the nation’s best offensive guard. Overall there shouldn’t be too much of a dropoff in points per game (45.3 in ’11, 44.5 in ’12).

To make the step up from middle-of-the-pack to conference competitor, the defense must improve. Last year’s 37 points allowed per game was 2nd worst in the league, and was at fault in two rare cases where a team scores over 50 points and still manages to lose **The 63-70 loss to #9 West Virginia is the highest scoring game ever between ranked teams**. The linebacking core, led by Bryce Hagar and Eddie Lackey, is the strongpoint of the defense and must bring leadership to a young front four.

Don’t be surprised to see Baylor head into November still unbeaten. That said, BU faces a gauntlet of the top 4 Big12 teams over the last 5 weeks. Art Briles will produce another bowl team for a Baylor record 4th straight season, as he continues to build the program inch by inch.

6. KANSAS STATE

Bill Snyder and his Wildcats

Entering last season the expectations wavered for Kansas State, and admittedly we missed with KSU. Collin “Optimus” Klein led the Wildcats up to #1 in the polls for the first time in school history, and despite the collapse at Baylor, the fact remains that Bill Snyder did it again! Snyder again caught the nation by surprise and finished in a BCS bowl just a few years removed from losing seasons in Manhattan. Can the Snyder Magic continue in the post-Klein era?

Gone is workhorse and leader QB Klein, who again led the team in carries and rushing touchdowns. Klein meant so much to KSU that his departure cannot be overstated, however the good news is the return of essentially the entire remainder of the offense (minus WR Chris Harper). Two talented QB candidates have emerged: the incumbent back-up Daniel Sams and the highly-touted JUCO Jake Waters. Waters was the player of the year in Junior College Football, and broke all of Cam Newton’s records! Regardless of who takes over under center, it is worth noting that they will face 3 tough league challenges right off the bat. Will the 3 non-conference tune-up games be enough prepartation for the new starter to take on the likes of Texas, Oklahoma State, and Baylor in a row?

The QB question is manageable, because both options should be successful…here on the defensive side of the ball, questions are plentiful considering just TWO starters return. Last season, the KSU defense was stout, and clearly the league’s best. The dominant shutdowns of Oklahoma, Texas Tech, TCU, and Texas simply cannot be repeated with this new unit. While Safety Ty Zimmerman is a bright spot, there is simply way too much uncertainty and not enough experience to keep up the 2012 performance.

While he will be no Klein, the new starting QB should have no trouble producing points. The inexperience on the defensive side of the ball coupled with early tests against the conference elite points to a slide down the conference ladder this season. The rest of the Big12 is ready for its revenge tour on the ‘Cats. Unless the miracle-worker Snyder has another one up his sleeve, look for a middle-of-the-pack finish for KSU.

7. TEXAS TECH

Kingsbury (2002) is the Head Coach just 10 years later

Kliff Kingsbury is back in Lubbock, and has become the youngest BCS Head Coach. Kingsbury, the record-breaking quarterback here from 1998-2002, guided Johnny Manziel to the Heisman Trophy last year as Offensive Coordinator at A&M. Tommy Tubberville failed to embrace the tradition and culture here, so naturally the Red Raider Football program needed a return to its roots: its air-raid, ‘guns up’ roots.

Kingsbury inherits an offense that scored over 37 points per game last season, complete with one of the best WR/TE units in the conference. TE Jace Amaro is All-Conference material, and with his 6’5” frame, he will become young Quarterback Michael Brewer’s favorite target. Along with Amaro, Eric Ward looks to build off of his productive 1053 yard, 12 TD season. Stepping in for QB Seth Doege is Brewer, just a sophomore; if anyone can help young QB’s flourish it is Kingsbury who last year coached the first ever Freshman Heisman winner. As long as the young offensive line can gel by October, Brewer should thrive in the air-raid offense.

A major issue with the Tubberville era was the defense, an area that saw a major decline from the years under Mike Leach’s regime. Hopefully Kingsbury’s henchmen can develop this side of the ball sooner rather than later. Luckily, the Red Raider defense is a veteran group this fall, especially up front where the entire front 7 is intact. Kerry Hyder and Delvin Simmons anchor the defensive line which appears to be one of the strongest in the conference. I look for some improvement here with an abundance of veterans, and the new staff that will surely pump new energy.

I like the move of bringing back Kingsbury, however as a first-time head coach he will experience some growing pains. The program is in good hands, but the major gains and improvements may be a year or two on the horizon. Still, there will be winning football in Lubbock, with a talented team that I expect to be playing in Bowl Season.

8. WEST VIRGINIA

RB Andrew Buie

Texas Tech: 49 … #5 West Virginia: 14. After an incredible start to the 2012 season, West Virginia saw its top 5 ranking and leading Heisman campaign completely stopped on this fateful October day in Lubbock. Such season collapses are rare, and this one hurt the psyche of Mountaineer Nation. Now in year 2 in the Big 12, how does the program respond to the loss of Geno Smith, and the absolute embarrassment on defense, a unit that gave up 39+ points in 7 of 9 conference games (5 losses).

For several weeks, Geno Smith had thrown more total touchdowns than incompletions in this high-octane offense. In the 70-63 win over Baylor (highest scoring ranked game in NCAA history), Smith passed for 656 yards and EIGHT TD’s, while Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin both topped 200 receiving yards! This offense will be unrecognizable without the familiar stars. The only notable returning player is RB Andrew Buie, who will now have a bigger workload to help aid FloridaState transfer QB Clint Trickett. Offensive guru Dana Holgorsen has quite a rebuilding task on his hands this year, I expect a significant drop-off in production and scoring.

For as elite the offense was playing, the WV defense was equally as bad. As they switched conferences, they must have missed the memo that teams do in fact actually play defense here in the Big 12, even if it isn’t much at times. The defense was much to blame for the midseason 5 game loss streak; in those loses they allowed 49, 55, 39, 55, and 50 points! 7 starters return, however the talent is still clearly lacking on this side of the ball. Look for Safety Karl Joseph to back up his tremendous freshman season.

Usually teams see a boost in their second season in a new conference thanks to familiarity with their opponents and the league’s style. However, West Virginia loses its All-time career passing leader, and its top 2 all-time receiving leaders. Both a rebuilding project on offense and vast defensive improvements are needed for West Virginia to make a bowl. Look for a losing season in Morgantown, and some sad renditions of “Take Me Home, Country Roads.”

9. IOWA STATE

QB Sam Richardson

Under Paul Rhodes, the Cyclones have been the ‘Giant-Killers,’ known for shaking the college football world once a season. The best upset was clearly the Friday Night overtime win over then #2 Oklahoma State (27 point underdogs). Rhodes brought the program out of the cellar, but has had trouble moving up past the middle-of-the-pack 6 win seasons.

Iowa State not only finished 9th in the conference, but also 9th in scoring, with just 24.5 points per game. This offense does not resemble the rest of the conference, as passing seems to be second priority. Rather than up-tempo, no-huddle, spread, Iowa State employs ball control and a patient rushing attack. Can a star running back emerge? James White and Shontrelle Johnson both bring senior experience but are yet to shoulder the entire workload. Excitement is building around Iowa Western transfer Aaron Wimberly who is drawing the terms “explosive,” “big play,” and “speedster” … three terms that are clearly lacking on this unit. New faces must emerge at receiver as the top 4 are all gone. Sophomore Sam Richardson, who finished the season with a strong 8-1 TD-INT ratio, now has a full offseason of #1 reps under his belt.

Don’t let the points allowed per game fool you- the Iowa State defense needs help. They only return 4 starters, and the fact remains that Iowa State has struggled on the recruiting trail. They have finished no higher than 9th (of 10) in any of Rhodes classes. The cupboard is bare on defense. Jeremiah George will need to be a defensive leader at the LB spot. With the conference slate hitting like a freight-train from the get-go, this unit should struggle.

There are a few levels of talent in this conference, with breaks after the top 4, middle 4, and bottom 2. Sadly for Ames, Iowa, the Cyclones fall into the bottom tier. With a challenging out-of-conference slate which features revenge-filled Iowa, and a 3rd matchup with Tulsa in 12 months, I simply do not see Iowa State matching last years win total (6). Lay down some roulette chips for another possible upset, but that might be the extent of it.

10. KANSAS

5 New Helmets for KU

Hard to believe this program was in the BCS spotlight a few short years ago. However those familiar with the sport realize how rare it was to have Kansas football relevant in National discussions. In the last 4 years, they are 2-32 in the Big 12, and haven’t beaten a BCS team since November 2010.

Simply put, this was one of the nation’s worst teams in 2012, losing 11 straight. Fans hope for the ‘2nd year coach boost’ but it doesn’t look promising here. Excitement is building around BYU transfer QB Jake Heaps and fans hope he can help erase the memory of Weis’ first transfer experiment (Dayne Crist). Both top RB’s return (James Sims and Tony Pierson) yet just 2 starting lineman will be in front of them. Also, just 4 starters return from a pathetic unit that allowed 36 points per game.

Kansas football is like a boring infomercial that Jayhawk fans are forced to watch before their main event- basketball begins. This fall KU introduces 5 new helmets, which doubles my forecasted number of wins. Until they beat a Division 1 football team, I have trouble moving them out of the cellar.