WEEK 3
September 12th, 2013
By Mike Nowoswiat and Brett Ciancia
By Mike Nowoswiat and Brett Ciancia
TEXAS CHRISTIAN at TEXAS TECH
Thursday September 12th, 7:30 ESPN. AT Jones AT&T Stadium
Texas Tech and TCU were former Southwest Conference rivals and played annually from 1958-1995 but just 3 times since. While the infamous "West Texas Championship Saddle" is no longer up for grabs (#BringBackTheSaddle), state bragging rights and conference positioning are on the table. Last year's matchup in Fort Worth resulted in a Triple-Overtime thriller with Tech escaping with the 56-53 win. This year it's the Horned Frogs that enter with a national ranking. Last week, starting QB Casey Pachall broke his arm, so Trevone Boykin gets the start after taking over for most of last season in relief of Pachall's legal issues. Boykin had some trouble against LSU, but improved last week, tossing 2 TD's. As expected, the Horned Frog defense looks strong, and it receives a boost with the full-time return of Freshman All-American DE Devonte Fields. But down in Lubbock, new coach (and former TT QB) Kliff Kingsbury has the Raider offense averaging over 50 points a game! While the 'strength-on-strength' is clearly TT O vs. TCU D, I look at the other matchup to be decisive. The Horned Frogs are stacked at RB (Catalon, James, and Green) and I look for Boykin to thrive after a full practice week with the first team. Night games in Lubbock are tough, and weird things happen on Thursdays...but I have to stick with TCU who I had rated higher than any other preseason publication. Look for Patterson's Frog defense to force a few turnovers in the second half and for the Frogs to open up Big 12 play with a win... TCU 31 Texas Tech 24
UCLA at NEBRASKA
Saturday September 14th, Noon, ABC. AT Memorial Stadium
In the first of 4 BigTen-Pac12 matchups this week, Nebraska seeks revenge. Not only did UCLA upset the Huskers last September out in LA, but the Bruins have also stole some major recruits over the past few seasons (DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa, ATH Devin Fuller). Both 5-star prospects came down to a final two of Nebraska and UCLA, and both put on the gold and light blue hat. Regarding the rematch with the Bruins, Coach Pelini simply stated "we owe them one." With the recent collapse of USC, UCLA is looking to bolster their claim to being the new king of the city, and a national profile game like this one is a perfect forum to do so. On the other side, Nebraska needs to play well on the national stage to help erase the defensive collapses of 2012. The 653 yards Nebraska allowed in this matchup last season was a harbinger for its defensive struggles. Now with a "faster" and "more athletic" defense, can the Blackshirts slow down dual-threat QB Brett Hundley? Much has been said about the Bruins bye week preceding this game. Two points there: their young secondary has only had one live-game experience, and it was evident that Nebraska was keeping its offense a bit 'vanilla' against its 2 easy foes. Both offenses look dominant on paper, with the edge to Nebraska, whose stable of running backs combined with a playmaking WR core creates an elite attack. This one figures to be high-scoring, but ultimately, I am taking 4-year starter Taylor Martinez and his Huskers to defend their 10-game home win streak and position themselves well to ride into November undefeated. Nebraska 41 UCLA 31
ALABAMA at TEXAS A&M
Saturday September 14th, 3:30, CBS. AT Kyle Field
Alabama players have been watching the game tape of last year’s matchup while they lift weights. Now that National Titles have become commonplace, there are probably some Crimson Tide fans who are more excited for this game than a BCS Title Game. To put it simply, Johnny Manziel’s heroics in Tuscaloosa may have irked some people associated with the Alabama program. A lot. Now Texas A&M has the undesirable task of not only playing Alabama, but playing a very motivated and angry Alabama. However, Aggie fans can get excited when thinking about Alabama’s lackluster week one performance against Virginia Tech, and Manziel’s eligibility for the game, which was in question weeks ago. The Tide only recorded 206 yards in week one, which is less than half their average output of 445 yards per game in 2012. Although the Hokie defense is seemingly living up to expectations, the consensus number one team in the country should not be held to around 200 yards in a game. The Virginia Tech defensive line is one of the top two D-lines in the ACC, providing a steep challenge for this green Alabama offensive line. Fortunately for this group, the Aggies do not have the same caliber of talent across the front, which will make it significantly easier for AJ McCarron, TJ Yeldon, Amari Cooper and the rest of this talented offense to produce. Texas A&M will get some defensive players back from suspension, which will be crucial because of their lackluster defensive performances in weeks 1 and 2. They have given up 306 and 240 yards on the ground in weeks 1 and 2 against Rice and Sam Houston State, respectively. Needless to say, the run defense better improve before TJ Yeldon comes to town. And finally, Johnny Manziel has played great, and nobody could use this win more than him, but I will take the Crimson Tide defense in every matchup this season. Manziel was less effective as the game wore on last year, and I expect that trend to continue since Alabama has seen so much tape from 2012. Alabama 30 Texas A&M 21
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WASHINGTON vs. ILLINOIS
Saturday Sept. 14th, 6:00, BigTen Network. AT Soldiers Field
Illinois is making its first career appearance in our Weekly Game Previews, and rightfully deserved! New coach Tim Beckman has already matched last seasons win total of 2, and Nathan Scheelhaase has returned to 2011 form. Their decisive 45-17 over Cincinnati was impressive for a team pushed around all last season. As for Washington, Coach Sarkisian fired up his 'Dawgs the right way as they broke in their new stadium with a blowout upset of #19 Boise State. While I predicted a UW win, I didn't expect that level of dominance. Their high level of play, albeit just one game, is encouraging considering I placed them above Oregon State in the P12 North. Here, in the 2nd leg of the BigTen-Pac12 Challenge, the two teams will play at a neutral site: Soldier's Field. While I am impressed with what Beckman is doing (and regret placing them below Purdue), I think Washington is on a completely different level. QB Keith Price is surrounded by playmakers: RB Bishop Sankey had 166 rush yards last week, and WR Kasen Williams is a top target. But even better news for UW is the return of All-American TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who is back healthy and off suspension and will be a huge boost to an already stacked Dawg offense. Look for Washington to overpower the Illini, despite the semi-homefield advantage... Washington 35 Illinois 21
MISSISSIPPI at TEXAS
Saturday September 14th, 8:00, Longhorn Network. AT UT
We were very high on both of these teams in the preseason as we thought Texas would—and still could—win the Big XII and Ole Miss would finish 2nd in the SEC West behind Alabama and ahead of LSU and Texas A&M. These two teams met last season in what ended up being a rout as the Longhorns gained 676 yards on their way to winning 66-31. But that was a long time ago, especially from Mississippi’s perspective. In the first true test of Hugh Freeze’s tenure, the Rebels simply were not ready. But nearly the entire team that played in 2012 will be playing again in 2013, along with a few impact newcomers. Tony Conner, Denzel Nkemdiche, Evan Engram and Laquon Treadwell were playmakers in their first collegiate game at Vanderbilt. With the emergence of Treadwell and Engram, the Rebel offensive skill players form a lethal group. Donte Moncrief was one of the best receivers in the conference last year, and still looks the part in 2013. The player whose mouth should be watering, however, is RB Jeff Scott, who will be running against a defense that gave up 550 yards on the ground last week, resulting in the firing of DC Manny Diaz. And while we thought the defense would be the strength of this team—and it certainly has the talent to be—the offense hasn’t exceeded expectations, resulting in exactly what it looks like: a mediocre team (thus far). I certainly have faith that the Longhorns won’t look as bad as they did last week, but I cannot use home field advantage as the reason for a UT win…Ole Miss 38 Texas 30
WISCONSIN at ARIZONA STATE
Saturday Sept. 14th, 10:30, ESPN. AT Sun Devil Stadium
This is a non-conference game I have had circled for months, Maybe it doesn't have the media hype of Alabama-Texas A&M, nor does it have the favorable TV slot, but rest assured that this will be a high quality football game. I think both teams are heavily underrated in the polls, and it is laughable that Arizona State doesn't have a number next to its name (Wisconsin is #20). In their three games, the combined score is 148-0! Yes, they were tune-up games against FCS opponents, but the numbers are still impressive for both squads. I put a lot of stock in the Sun Devils this year, pegging them to win the Pac 12 South over USC and UCLA. The offense is potent all-around and should continue its improvement with a second full year in Todd Graham's system. Look for the athletic and accurate Taylor Kelly to break onto the national scene Saturday night. Defensively, it all starts up front with All-American Will Sutton, an absolute force that may draw double teams to help DT Jaxon Hood flourish. I think this will be one of the better positional battles we see this month: the infamous Wisconsin Offensive Line against the nasty Arizona State D-Line. Wisconsin has run the ball at ease, with 3 runners eclipsing 100 yards in each of their first two games! So here we have two elite offenses going up against two un-scored-upon defenses. Picking a winner here is tough, especially because of my high opinions of both. Two key points here: this is new Head Coach Gary Andersen's first true national test against a BCS opponent. Not to discredit his success at Utah State, but this isn't the WAC anymore. Finally, it is tough to go out to the desert and win a tough non-conference game - just ask Gary Pinkel of Missouri, whose #18 Tigers of 2011 couldn't take the heat. While the talent levels are similar, I look for coaching experience, a tough home-field advantage, and the more experienced squad to prevail... Make sure to tune-in late night, #PickSixNation .. Arizona State 34 Wisconsin 31