PAC-12: North Division
By Brett Ciancia
August 1st, 2013
August 1st, 2013
1. STANFORD
LB Shayne Skov
QB Kevin Hogan
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Each August we hear the same knocks on Stanford, about how they lack the flash of Oregon, the history of USC, the stadium of UCLA, and the classic "there is no way they can replace ____ star player." First it was RB Toby Gerhart, then it was Coach Harbaugh leaving for the Niners. Heading into 2012, doubters claimed there was no way Stanford could maintain the success without QB Andrew Luck. All Stanford has done is win 3 straight BCS Bowl games and gone 35-5 in that span! It is time to simply accept that Stanford has a powerhouse football program. Despite losing all-time rusher Stepfan Taylor, Stanford has the nation's best defense, an elite O-Line, and a winner at QB. That looks like the recipe for a Conference Championship, and fittingly, I am calling Stanford to defend its PAC-12 crown! The Cardinal offense sputtered out of the gates last fall, only because they hadn’t found their QB yet. Once Kevin Hogan got his start, he went 5-0 beating 4 ranked teams – including the top-ranked Ducks IN the Autzen Zoo. RB Taylor’s departure will surely hurt, as he accounted for roughly 75% of the teams rushing yardage (1530). But Coach David Shaw has a well stocked roster with replacements fighting for any opening. Although he is young, I look for Barry Sanders Jr. (Yes, his son) to burst onto the scene this fall. Hey Pac 12, this is your official warning of what you’ll try to defend the next 3 seasons. The offensive line is stout to say the least – 4 starters return including an All-American (David Yankey) and two additional All-Pac12 members. The only line vacancy will be filled by 5-Star recruit Andrus Peat. The only “weakness” here is the inexperience at WR, a group that will be relied on more with the departure of 2 pro Tight Ends. The defense could be the nation’s best – I’m looking at you Tuscaloosa! All 8 returning starters are candidates for the All-PAC 12 team … EIGHT! The Linebacking duo of Shayne Skov and Trent Murphy is the best in the nation. The pair of Safeties rivals any nationwide as well: Ed Reynolds and Jordan Richards combined for 9 INT’s last season! Up front, DE Ben Gardner will lead the charge off the end, but DE Henry Anderson is also a force (5.5 sacks in ’12). The defense allowed just 17 points per game…I think even that number will be improved upon. The big question in the Pac 12 this year is simply, “Stanford or Oregon?” While Stanford may lack the flash and speed, they have the elite defense and the strength up front both on the O-Line and D-Line. With the key game against the Ducks in Stanford this year, I look for the Cardinal to protect the Farm, and go on to win the North Division. If they can navigate through a tough out-of-division schedule, and get revenge on Notre Dame, then Stanford is a legit National Title contender and deserves a shot at unseating the SEC. |
2. OREGON
QB Marcus Mariota
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“What-If”… Oregon fans are still pondering the timeless question. After rolling through the first 10 games and playing like the #1 team in the land heartbreak hit Eugene. “What-If” Kicker Alejandro Maldonado hit either of his two missed field goals (both 42 yarders). Give Stanford credit for slowing the Duck offense that came in averaging 55 points per game! But the harsh memories of the two missed kicks still sting. Since then Chip Kelly has left for Philadelphia, while both leaders Kenjon Barner and Dion Jordan joined the pros. With the coaches all promoted from within, can Oregon maintain this elite level of football, and this year go all the way? It all starts with the dynamic speedster at quarterback – Marcus Mariota. Sharing the glory and fame with backs Barner and De’Anthony Thomas, Mariota didn’t receive enough Heisman Hype for his stat line: 2677 pass yards 32 TD (69%), and 752 rush yards & 5 rush TD’s. Despite losing Barner, the backfield is still loaded with Thomas, Byron Marshall and incoming freshman Thomas Tyner. Look for more video game stats and the typical UO up-tempo attack. The line must replace 2 starters but looks solid. The top 5 WR’s all return, giving Mariota one of the finest sets of receiving targets in the league. While they may not reach the crazy 49.6 points per game mark, it will still be elite. The only concern is the departure of playcaller Kelly; will the former QB’s Coach (and National Champion QB at Nebraska) Scott Frost be able to emulate his successor? The Duck defense is forced to replace 3 highly touted pro prospects. Dion Jordan will be missed up front, while both star LB’s (Clay and Alonso) are gone in the middle. There is talent waiting to fill the voids, but the inexperience is alarming. The secondary is clearly the strength of the unit, as both Corners are All-PAC12 caliber. Ifo Ekpre-Olomu went toe to toe with USC’s Marqise Lee in last years shootout, and is the real deal. I look for a small dropoff overall defensively, but not enough to remove the Ducks from National Title discussion. Ultimately, Oregon’s season will be defined on November 7th in Palo Alto, California. In what could be the biggest Thursday night game ever, the Division crown is on the line – a must win if Oregon wants to get to the BCS National Champioship Game due to their weak schedule, it is undefeated or bust. The big game is 3 months away, but as of August, I am picking Stanford to win the showdown, forcing me to place UO in 2nd here. |
3. WASHINGTON
"Smiles" and Coach "Sark"
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Steve Sarkisian burst onto the PAC-12 scene when he knocked off his former team USC (ranked #3) in 2009. UW again shocked the college football world last September, upsetting then-#8 Stanford. With an abundance of talent and experience, this could be the season that "Sark" finally breaks the 7-6 curse, a stale record that has plagued UW for the past 3 seasons. Washington will open their newly renovated Husky Stadium against Boise State, in what should be an emotion-filled atmosphere and a true measuring stick test for UW. QB Keith "Smiles" Price regressed last season, as he was spectacular in 2011. I look for Price to return to his old ways and orchestrate an offensive comeback - the team's average points per game dropped 10 points from '11 to '12. Price is one of 10 returning offensive starters, with just a Guard to replace. The stars at the skill positions are top-notch: RB Bishop Sankey, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins and WR Kasen Williams all make convincing cases for first team All-PAC12. Look for drastic improvements here, as the unit remained intact and had the whole offseason to refocus and gel. After the total defensive collapse of 2011, the ’12 unit responded and improved dramatically. Even better for UW, 8 starters return from that unit, and should improve even more. This will be the 2nd year under DC Justin Wilcox who had major success at Boise State. Another year under Wilcox should benefit the Husky D tremendously. Shaq Thompson is a standout at LB and is back after a breakout freshman season. Watch out for one of the best Junior College Transfers, CB Travell Dixon who originally committed to Alabama. It will be refreshing to see inspired defense being played in Husky Stadium again. Many have Washington behind Oregon State. Thanks to the wealth of returning starters, star players all over the offense, and a 2nd year boost under DC Wilcox, I am calling for Washington to finish ahead of the Beavers, to finish 3rd in the North. |
4. OREGON STATE
QB Cody Vaz
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Oregon State shocked the league last year, bouncing back from a 3-9 debacle to win 9 games! No one saw this coming, as most placed OSU 5th or 6th in the PAC-12 North last August. While the turnaround was quite impressive, I look for a small step back to reality for the Beavers. Can Mike Riley prove me wrong again? Sean Mannion started the season as the #1 QB and played well until his injury in week 4. Here against BYU, Cody Vaz came in an impressed from the start. His mid-season stretch of 6 games was going well until an injury turned the tables again. Entering 2012, I think it is Cody Vaz's job to lose, but his short leash may be a distraction. Whoever is under center will have a nice duo of runners behind him in Storm Woods and Terron Ward. Star WR Markus Wheaton is gone, but the rest of the group remains intact and looks solid. The defense cut down its points allowed per game from 30 in '11 to just 20 points last season and was very much the reason for the huge win/loss turnaround. It all starts up front with dominant rush end Scott Chrichton who recorded 9 sacks last year and looks like a lock for 1st Team All-PAC12. CB Rashaad Reynolds will be a lock down corner again, and is a key part of this veteran secondary. Keep an eye on Michael Doctor at LB who will improve even more in his Senior season. I feel that Oregon State overachieved a lot last season, at least in the win/loss column and in the National Polls. By default they were ranked #7 at one point. It was another blowout Civil War (48-24 Oregon), and I don't see the State Title shifting hands anytime soon. I see at least 4 losses, with San Diego State as another tough one. The Washington game will decide who finishes 3rd in the North - I'm taking UW. |
5. CALIFORNIA
DE Deandre Coleman
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Last August, I predicted that Cal would be mediocre, yet good enough (typical 6 or 7 wins) to keep Jeff Tedford along for another season. I, and the rest of the league, didnt think they were 3-9 bad! They brought their best effort to Columbus and almost knocked off Ohio State (35-28). In the middle of the season, they shocked (and dismantled) #25 UCLA by a score of 43-17. That small glimpse of their season resume is misleading, as the Bears were pathetic in their 9 losses. This time, it cost Tedford his job. I think Cal needed some new energy in the program to accompany their newly renovated stadium. They brought in Sonny Dykes who had the most sucessful 2-year stretch in Louisiana Tech history, and won 10 games last fall. Dykes will pump new energy and strategy into this stale program, and while short-term gains may be difficult with only 11 starters returning, I think this a strong hire big-picture. The talented but raw freshman Zach Kline will lead the offense while Deandre Coleman is clearly the defensive standout. There simply isnt much production returning, and this looks like an all-around rebuilding year. Cal gets Colorado out-of-division while WSU avoids them (an extra win for Cal). The game to decide 5th place in the North Division is home, as Washington State comes into Berkeley for Cal's Homecoming. While Dykes works his rebuilding project, expect another season in the lower-tier of the league. |
6. WASHINGTON STATE
Head Coach Mike Leach
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Mike Leach sailed his pirate ship up to the Pacific Northwest last season, and was the trendy pick to escape the cellar of the PAC-12. There were significant locker room troubles here including the suspension of top WR Marquess Wilson who was close to breaking the receptions record. After the suspesion (3 games to go), Wilson quit the team. Jeff Tuel also didn't quite produce as well as many had hoped, given Leach's track record with QB's in his system. With those two gone, Leach will start from scratch on offense. Leach has a difficult task on his hands - cleaning up a losing culture and a program that hasn't been to a bowl since 2003. Leach targeted the Junior College ranks this season, with some top JUCO's coming up to Pullman. This is an effective strategy to pump game-ready players into the roster, while younger hand-picked recruits develop. Leach is a proven winner, but the clean-up job is bigger than at most places. I look for a major jump in Year 3 of the Leach era, but for now in the 2nd season, I look for another last place finish in the North Division. 
The Washington State flags have appeared at every College Gameday set since 2003
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