PAC-12: South Division
By Brett Ciancia
August 1st, 2013
August 1st, 2013
1. ARIZONA STATE
DE Davon Coleman and DT Will Sutton
QB Taylor Kelly
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Head Coach Todd Graham received criticism for leaving Pitt after just one season, but he quickly erased the negativity as he took a losing team with just 8 returning starters to a successful 8-5 season. Not only did he bring a winning culture, he already has the Sun Devils playing at a high level, high enough for me to predict ASU as the winners of the Pac12 South Division. Here’s why: The athletic yet accurate passer Taylor Kelly threw for over 3000 yards (29 TDs) in his first year starting. Now with a full offseason in the Graham system, Kelly will even further develop and flourish. He has weapons all over the field, especially behind him with a game-breaking RB duo: Marion Grice and DJ Foster. Both RBs are very versatile, and heavily factor into the passing game (79 receptions, 12 rec. TDs combined). Tight End Chris Coyle is one of the nation’s best, and is clearly Kelly’s top target due to the mismatches he creates over the middle. 2 Junior College Transfer WR’s (Jaelen Strong and Joe Morris) add in significant talent to the group. This Sun Devil offense scored 38 points per game, and after another year under Graham, the return of leaders, and an influx of JUCO talent, I look for ASU to eclipse last season’s performance. The defense is both experienced and star-studded. It starts up front with DT Will Sutton, who turned down the NFL for his senior season. The All-American had 13 sacks, but those close to ASU’s program can tell you he left 6, 7, even 8 more sacks on the field! His emotion and leadership are as valuable as his elite talent, and the fact that he will attract 2 or 3 lineman. While Sutton faces a double-team, the rest of the D-Line will thrive, namely DT Jaxon Hood. Ball-hawking Safety Alden Darby leads the secondary, another strength. Also throw in some highly-rated Junior College transfer LB’s and this defense looks very stout. The pieces are in place for success this fall in Tempe, Arizona. Graham returns the nucleus of an elite offense, owns the best defensive line in the conference, and added in a huge crop of JUCOs that will contribute immediately. The out-of-conference schedule is difficult; Wisconsin and Notre Dame will both be physical and draining slugfests. But Pac12-wise, I like Arizona State to win the South Division, and play for the conference title in December. The Sun Devils have all the momentum - #FearTheFork |
2. SOUTHERN CAL
WR Marqise Lee
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When Matt Barkley spurned the NFL and decided to return to LA for his Senior season, expectations ran rampant. USC was the consensus National Champion pick, and everyone assumed Barkley would hoist the Heisman in December. I don’t recall a bigger disappointment ever from a #1 preseason team. Many wonder how Lane Kiffin failed to produce with this elite roster. Many also wonder how warm Kiffins ‘hot seat’ is heading into 2013. The Trojan offense looks very strong everywhere but QB, with the departure of 4-year starter and all-time passer Matt Barkley. The incumbent Max Wittek was unimpressive in his debut (Notre Dame), albeit against the #1 team in the land. Cody Kessler and 5-star Max Browne are pushing for the job, but regardess, I see a major drop-off here. There is no shortage of weapons at the skill positions; WR Marqise Lee finished 4th in the Heisman. Penn State Transfer RB Silas Redd is a force, while TE Xavier Grimble teams up with WR Nelson Agholor to provide great complements to Lee. Also factor in that USC’s O-Line is loaded with 4 and 5 stars, making this unit very strong (if the QB position can be filled). On average, Kiffin’s 3 defenses have been 10 points worse than the 3 teams before him. This side of the ball has been the Achilles Heel under Kiffin, who had to fire his father, the former Defensive Coordinator. That vacancy was filled by Cal’s DC Clancy Pendergast who will surely enjoy working with blue-chip talent at every position. The defense has All-Conference potential stars at each level: DL Morgan Breslin, LB Hayes Pullard, and DB Dion Bailey. Perhaps this staff change will finally convert the top-notch talent into on-field dominance. Or we are still a year away from the new defensive culture being fully implemented. Southern Cal checks in at #2 in the South Division. USC’s starting talent may be the best in the division, but their glaring coaching weaknesses and lacking mid-season depth (*USC is still serving a roster reduction sanction from the Lack Of Institutional Control penalty) hold them back from earning the division crown. However, USC will get revenge on an overachieving UCLA squad who stole the ‘City Title’ from the Trojans. |
3. UCLA
QB Brett Hundley
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Some call it a breakout year for the UCLA Bruins under first year Head Coach Jim Mora Jr and Freshman QB Brett Hundley; I call it Beginner’s Luck. I will be the first to congratulate UCLA on reclaiming the Los Angeles Victory Bell, as I called for them to beat USC last November. However, 2013 is a different story. Brett Hundley burst onto the scene in UCLA’s upset victory over Nebraska, and he turned in a 4000+ total yard season! Hundley was an accurate 66% passer with enough speed and elusiveness to beat opponents on the ground as well (9 rush TDs). The major news here is the departure of All-Time School Rusher Jonathan Franklin, an absolute workhorse for the Bruin offense. Jordan James and Damien Thigpen will now have increased roles in the offense, but Franklin simply cannot be replaced. Further, just 1 of Hundley’s top 4 Receiving targets return (Shaquelle Evans). Keep an eye on Devin Fuller, an elite athlete that UCLA snaked from Nebraska back on Signing Day 2012. While the Bruins’ D-Line loses Datone Jones, its Linebacker core is one of the nation’s strongest. Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks (brother of PHI Eagles Mychal) make up a difficult 1-2 punch. This unit was playing with emotion in November, but after consecutive losses to Stanford, showed up uninspired at the Holiday Bowl (49-26 loss). The season-ending injury to DL Owamagbe Odighizuwa will hurt the depth up front. With just 5 starters back, will the spots open up for some of Mora’s elite recruits? 7 of the top 9 commits (of a Top 10 signing class) are defenders! UCLA and Hundley caught some teams by surprise last fall. Now in Year 2, the surprise factor turns to revenge as opponents get another shot at UCLA. The roadtrip to Nebraska, a team (and state) still enraged from the defeat on the field last season and the numerous defeats on the recruiting trail to UCLA, will be very difficult. Back to back roadtrips to Top 5 teams (Stanford and Oregon) kick off a grueling conference slate. I look for 4 or 5 conference losses for UCLA. The City Title may return to USC for the short-term, but I really like how Mora is improving the program here big picture. |
4. ARIZONA
RB Ka'Deem Carey
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Coming off of a 4-8 season and the bitter end of the Mike Stoops era, the Arizona Wildcats pulled off two ranked upsets and were within a score of two more. Coach Rich Rodriguez brought the ‘Cats back to Bowl Season with the 7-5 regular season record. In his second season, how will he replace do-it-all QB Matt Scott, fix his defense, and add in the consistency that was lacking in ’12? With the departure of QB Matt Scott, the UA offense loses over 4000 yards of production (33 TDs). BJ Denker, a Junior College Transfer nicknamed “Vanilla Vick,” appears to be the frontrunner for the job. Surely Scott’s production will be missed, however UA returns the Nation’s Leading Rusher, Ka’Deem Carey, who neared the 2000 yard mark last fall (1929 and 23 TD’s). With an inexperienced QB, Carey will have to shoulder the load, and should expect 300 carries again. Carey is the only Arizona offensive player on the All-Pac12 3-deep, and will be keyed on by every opposing defense. 3/5 of the line returns. I have trouble seeing UA match its 38 points per game mark of last season. The issue with Arizona was on the defensive side of the ball, especially their total collapses in big games. In the 5 ranked Pac-12 games, the defense allowed 66, 54, 49, 38, and 36 … they were lucky to win one of those (USC). Part of that may have been the installation of entire new defensive scheme – the 3-3-5 stack – brought in by Rodriguez’s henchman DC Jeff Casteel. Luckily for the Wildcats, all 11 starters return and will benefit largely from another full offseason in the new system. Jake Fischer and Marquise Flowers headline the LB core, while Tra’mayne Bondurant mans the secondary. Look for improvements on defense. Arizona had the potential to come in and knock off then-#10 USC, take Stanford to Overtime, and significantly defeat Oklahoma State. UA also came out flat too often (especially in the big ones) losing 49-0 to Oregon and 66-10 to UCLA. I like what Rodriguez is doing in Tuscon, but I do not see them cracking the top 3 of the South Division. That said, UA is leaps and bounds ahead of the bottom 2 (Utah and Colorado) and will return to bowl season. |
5. UTAH
Head Coach Kyle Whitingham
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Last August, in a division that was undergoing 3 coaching changes, I placed newcomer Utah high in my predictions. Due to injuries and the challenging effects of conference change, Utah bottomed out, going just 5-7 and missing a bowl game for the first time since 2002. More alarming to Ute Fans, the loss to rival Utah State who hadn’t won since 1997. Can Kyle Whittingham restore the winning pride to Utah Football? Part of the issue last fall was the injury bug, as it hit starting QB Jordan Wynn again. Highly-touted Freshman Travis Wilson eventually earned the starting job, a position he now has to himself as a Sophomore. Wilson threw for 1311 yards (63%) in the 7 games he started. Look for major improvements for the youngster, who will thrive under Defensive Coordinator Brian Johnson, the former QB who led the Utes to an undefeated season in 2008. Dennis Erickson is also helping out at OC – an interesting staff to say the least. Just 6 starters return, none of which are receiving any All-Pac12 hype. Historically under Whittingham, the defense has been stout, playing with energy and emotion. Those traits were lacking everywhere except on the defensive line, led by standouts Star Lotulelei and Joe Kruger. Unfortunately both have moved on to the NFL. DE Trevor Reilly will attempt to keep the tradition going up front, and was the leading tackler in ’12. The secondary is especially young, and better gel quickly, as several aerial assaults await in the PAC-12. After missing both Stanford and Oregon last season, both are added to the schedule. The Beehive Boot will be a challenge again, with Utah State’s improvements, and BYU’s consistent level of competitiveness. Look for Utah to miss bowl season again this fall, as the effects of switching to a BCS conferences still linger. |
6. COLORADO
RUN, RALPHIE, RUN!
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The Jon Embree era is over after just 2 seasons. He went 4-21 granted he was dealt a tough hand with the conference transition. CU went to the WAC to find its new head coach – Mike MacIntyre comes to Boulder after taking San Jose State from 1 win in 2010 to 11 wins in 2012! Texas Transfer QB Connor Wood only saw limited time last season but should start this fall. Luckily for him, all top rushers are back with just one WR leaving (the o-line must be entirely rebuit however). The standout is WR Paul Richardson, who returns after missing 2012 to an ACL tear. The defense allowed an unthinkable 46 (FORTY-SIX) points per game! 9 starters return, which is an irrelevant stat unless coaching changes are implemented and accepted quickly. Look for another 1-3 win season here at CU (the Division 1-AA game against Central Arkansas isn’t a guarantee, considering D1-AA Sacramento State beat CU last year. Colorado played toe-to-toe in the 2007 Independence Bowl (their last bowl appearance); hard to believe the exact opposite directions those teams skyrocketed towards. |