2014 Week 5 Game Previews

Week 5 Game Previews

BRETT CIANCIA and MIKE NOWOSWIAT
September 25th, 2014

Simply put, this is what we do best. As evidenced by our "Most Accurate BCS Predictions" title, we take pride in our season previews and weekly game picks. As we have done each week since we launched the site, the two of us will analyze, preview, and predict the results of the best SIX games each week.
New this season: if your team's game didn't make the cut here, our conference experts have you covered. Find the links (on the RIGHT) for further analysis for every conference game not shown on this page, along with Heisman discussion and our weekly Deion Sanders Award for the Best Pick Six of the Week.

Enjoy your Football Weekend!

UCLA AT ARIZONA STATE
This matchup has decided the PAC-12 South Division the past two seasons and both have been wild shootouts: (45-43 UCLA in 2012, 38-33 ASU last season). While it is hard to call it the division title in September, the Thursday Night battle in the desert certainly will go a long way in deciding the South. Both teams enter 3-0 and fresh off of a bye week of preparation. That extra prep and rest time was crucial for both teams for different reasons. UCLA enters the game with its star players banged up – QB Brett Hundley and LB Myles Jack, to name a few – but both are probable after 12 days off. For Arizona State, this extra time was spent getting backup QB Mike Bercovici up to speed; he has the tall task of filling in for injured star QB Taylor Kelly, who has been tough for the Bruins to stop. Bercovici has weapons all over the field, headlined by RB DJ Foster and WR Jaelen Strong. While he is no Kelly, he has a strong arm and makes quick, smart decisions – both important qualities in Todd Graham’s system. For the most part, UCLA has disappointed and failed to live up to its high national expectations. I was the only one in the nation to NOT predict UCLA to win the Pac-12 South, and I still like that prediction 4 weeks in. They have looked flat, struggled to put away inferior opponents, and lack the expected flash. The fact that Coach Mora has not officially claimed Hundley the starter could mean that he is still a little banged up, or that Mora is simply hiding knowledge – both allude to low confidence levels. Arizona State is tough to beat in the desert – especially at night. Look for the new Sun Devil defense to gel this week, and for the raucous "blackout" ASU crowd to rally behind Bercovici, en route to a key victory for the home team.
Arizona State 38 UCLA 37

ARKANSAS AT TEXAS A&M
Bret Bielema is proving why he was such a huge coaching hire just two seasons ago. This Arkansas team may not be ready to compete for the SEC West crown yet, but they will compete—something that many thought would take another year or two. The defense isn’t up to Bielema’s standards yet, but the running game certainly is. Despite the loss of All-American C Travis Swanson, this offensive line is mauling opponents every week. With an average weight of 325 pounds, Bielema’s big uglies dwarf every NFL line. Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams have been lethal at running back, combining for 881 yards and 12 touchdowns. Still, this offense is one-dimensional and will struggle against teams who can limit their rushing numbers; however, that is easier said than done. Texas A&M has some great young talent up front, but I was still surprised to see how effective they were against the South Carolina rushing attack. Arkansas’ rushing attack looks better than USC's thus far, but I still expect A&M to have the most success in stopping it than any other opponent has thus far. Kenny Hill and company should have great success through the air. Auburn receivers were running free nearly every pass play and Texas A&M has the superior passing attack. Arkansas can stay in this game if they run the ball effectively and Brandon Allen keeps the chains moving on third down—he currently completes only 47% of his passes on third down—but I expect Texas A&M to put up 40+ points... Texas A&M 45 Arkansas 30

DUKE AT MIAMI FL
Duke is picking up right where it left off. Still, the Blue Devils remain untested and Miami is looking better than it did in week one against Louisville. The Hurricanes have dropped their two “tests” in the Cardinals and last week at Nebraska. Finally, Miami is the home team and Brad Kaaya actually has some experience under his belt. Kaaya played very well last week except for his two costly interceptions. He threw for 359 yards and 3 touchdowns as the offense really leaned on him, showing just how much Al Golden and his staff trusts him because Duke Johnson was also running well. The Blue Devil defense will certainly allow Kaaya to put up some points. The question will be if the freshman can out-duel Anthony Boone. Boone has thrown 7 touchdowns and only one interception. This is good news for Duke because Boone’s main problem last year was throwing picks (1-1 TD-INT ratio). The Blue Devil offensive line is one of the better units in the ACC and one of the only units that didn’t lose a very key contributor. While I do believe Duke will overachieve again this year given its relatively low preseason ranking, I expect Miami to win this game in south Florida. Miami 38 Duke 27

STANFORD AT WASHINGTON
Coming into the 2014 season, these two teams were perceived to be the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the strong PAC-12 North Division but each have apparent flaws. Despite opening 4-0, Washington stumbled out of the gates, barely surviving upset bids from Hawaii and Eastern Washington and trailing young Georgia State 14-0 at halftime. Stanford’s recent success has been rooted in strong defense and a punishing rushing attack; one of those is evident this season, while the latter needs much improvement. The Cardinal defense has pitched two shutouts in 3 games, and currently leads the nation in points allowed per game (4.3). But it’s offensive identity is lacking, and its red zone efficiency (or lack thereof) cost them the USC game. The Cardinal rushing attack ranks a mere 75th in the nation, way below the elite standards of the past few seasons. Despite both team’s flaws, this figures to be another Pac-12 battle, something I expect to be common in this deep and talented league. While Cyler Miles has played effieciently and the UW ground game has had some success, they haven’t faced anything close to the caliber of this Cardinal defense. I expect the Cardinal defense to shut down Petersen’s offense, and for Kevin Hogan to muster up enough offense to pull out the road victory.
Stanford 27 Washington 17

MISSOURI AT SOUTH CAROLINA
Well, the Tigers looked like they would be big-time overachievers this year after losing a lot of talent and still dominating opponents through three games. Then they laid a big fat egg against Indiana. Missouri’s offensive line struggled to protect Maty Mauk, the defense didn’t look good without Markus Golden, and Darius White was injured. White’s injury is huge because of Missouri’s lack of depth at the WR position. Last year, L’Damian Washington and Dorial Green-Beckham formed one of the tallest, most athletic WR duos in the nation and now they are left with Bud Sasser and Jimmie Hunt, not bad options, but a far cry from last year’s dominant unit. Still, I expect the passing game to do well with Mauk under center if the offensive line can fix its issues. South Carolina’s defense still looks like a work in progress and the Tigers should be able to score on their Columbia-based brethren. The Gamecocks have gained no less than 433 yards in their four games featuring three ranked opponents. Dylan Thompson is settling in and passing the ball like I thought he would this season while Mike Davis is finally recovering back to full health. If Thompson takes care of the ball, the Gamecocks win. Missouri will have revenge in mind after suffering its only regular season loss to USC last season and Gary Pinkel’s teams thrive on turnovers. With a +6 turnover margin through the first three games—all wins—the Tigers had a -1 margin against Indiana and lost in a tight game. South Carolina will take care of the ball and the Tigers at home. South Carolina 42 Missouri 36

NORTH CAROLINA AT CLEMSON
With both teams coming off losses, one team has to feel great, to some extent, about its future prospects while another team is down in the dumps. North Carolina put up an all-time awful defensive performance against East Carolina, giving up 789 yards and 70 points. ECU has a good offense, but still looked like a normal team against Virginia Tech and South Carolina. North Carolina clearly struggles to defend the pass: 446 yards against ECU and 341 yards against San Diego State. Going into this season, Tar Heel fans were probably hoping to catch Clemson while it was still trying to figure out who its quarterback would be. Unfortunately for those fans, Deshaun Watson figured that out himself last week against the top-ranked Florida State Seminoles. While FSU seems to have lost a little bit on defense from where it was last year, it is still light years better than this UNC defense. To make matters worse, Marquise Williams has not been the player that everyone was expecting going into this season. He has only averaged 183 yards per game and only thrown four touchdowns to his three interceptions. Everyone thought UNC was one of the only teams who knew its QB this year in the ACC, but the emerging QBs elsewhere are making North Carolina’s situation seem like one of the worst in the conference. Justin Thomas, Jacoby Brissett, Tyler Murphy, Brad Kaaya, and of course Deshaun Watson look like play-makers. I don’t think there needs to be too much analysis here as Clemson outclasses North Carolina in every facet... Clemson 51 North Carolina 20

Week 5 Game Previews

More Weekly Content: ACC BIG TEN BIG 12 SEC PAC-12
HEISMAN RIVALRY TROPHIES DEION SANDERS AWARD

Agree or Disagree?
TELL US:

SHARE:

MORE WEEKLY CONTENT:

2014 PREVIEW
QUICK LINKS

Privacy Policy

Week 5 Game Previews

More Weekly Content: ACC BIG TEN BIG 12 SEC PAC-12HEISMAN RIVALRY TROPHIES DEION SANDERS AWARD

Agree or Disagree? TELL US:

SHARE:

MORE WEEKLY CONTENT:

2014 PREVIEWQUICK LINKS

Privacy Policy

More Weekly Content: ACC BIG TEN BIG 12 SEC PAC-12
HEISMAN RIVALRY TROPHIES DEION SANDERS AWARD

Agree or Disagree?
TELL US:

2014 PREVIEW
QUICK LINKS