2014 Week 6 Game Previews

Week 6 Game Previews

BRETT CIANCIA and MIKE NOWOSWIAT
October 2nd, 2014

Simply put, this is what we do best. As evidenced by our "Most Accurate BCS Predictions" title, we take pride in our season previews and weekly game picks. As we have done each week since we launched the site, the two of us will analyze, preview, and predict the results of the best SIX games each week.
New this season: if your team's game didn't make the cut here, our conference experts have you covered. Find the links (on the RIGHT) for further analysis for every conference game not shown on this page, along with Heisman discussion and our weekly Deion Sanders Award for the Best Pick Six of the Week.

Enjoy your Football Weekend! 2014 SEASON RECORD 22-8 (.733%)

Additional Feature this week: "Saturday, October 4th: Season Defining Gameday, Already" about this high stake Saturday.

TEXAS A&M AT MISSISSIPPI STATE
Well the Aggies showed they were not quite the 2012 Aggies against Arkansas, but still a damn good team. Even when Kenny Hill didn’t have his best day, they managed a way to squeak out a win against Arkansas—a damn good team in their own right. Unfortunately, they have to play AT Mississippi State who is a little less one-dimensional on offense and a little stronger on defense than the Hogs. MSU QB Dak Prescott has been nothing short of magnificent, albeit against some weaker opponents. LSU is not the LSU of recent years, but still a formidable opponent in a hostile atmosphere. Prescott ran for over 100 yards and a touchdown against LSU. But against a soft run defense, this was not what made his performance so good. It was his ability to pass the ball efficiently that took this offense to another level. We saw flashes of it last year, but against LSU he looked like a true Heisman contender, completing 15 of 24 passes for 268 yards, 2 touchdowns and NO interceptions. Last year, Prescott threw 10 TDs and 7 INTs; he already has 11 TDs and only 2 INTs this year. While Arkansas may have a better pure running game than Mississippi State, the Bulldog offense is so much more difficult to defend because of its multiple dimensions. Prescott is a running and passing threat and the Bulldog receivers are a deep unit. Texas A&M still gave up over 6 yards a carry and 3 TDs on the ground to Arkansas, and they could key in on the run game all day. After what I saw last week, I am very confident this MSU offense will score points. Texas A&M will need to match that offensive firepower if it wants to leave with a victory. Kenny Hill may struggle against a very good front seven. He is going to need his very good group of receivers to make some game-breaking plays like they did last week. WR Josh Reynolds made some big plays but also dropped some balls that would have led to big plays. He and the rest of this unit cannot afford to give up big plays like it did last week because I expect Mississippi State to put up more points than Arkansas did. In the end, I’ll always go with the more experienced team at home.
Mississippi State 40 Texas A&M 34

ALABAMA AT OLE MISS
Alabama comes into this game off a bye week and a huge win against Florida in which the Tide dominated the Gators, but let mistakes keep the game somewhat close. This game should have one of the best atmospheres ever produced in Oxford as College Gameday comes to town for the first time ever. A lot of weight rests on the 3rd-year starting Rebel signal caller. While Bo Wallace looks the part of an elite quarterback, and sometimes plays the part, he is the Achilles heel of this team. This team has an elite-level player at every positional group except in the offensive backfield. This team has the talent to win every single game on its schedule and it’s frustrating to watch Wallace make the same mistakes he did two years ago. This isn’t the case of a bad player holding a team back. It’s the case of an erratic player with a high ceiling not always playing smart football—and holding the team back. As John McClane eloquently puts it in Die Hard when the FBI comes in and seizes control from the LAPD: “if you’re not a part of the solution, you’re a part of the problem. Quit being a part of the f****** problem!” I believe Wallace will step up in one of the biggest games in Rebel history and start being a part of the solution. On the flip side, Alabama has two key players to watch: Amari Cooper and Tony Brown. That is aside from the obvious player to watch, first-year QB Blake Sims. Cooper has been such a force at receiver and has accounted for so much of the offense that it is difficult to imagine what the offense would look like without him. His play will be crucial. Freshman Tony Brown has been great at cornerback. While Laquon Treadwell is not the one-man show at receiver that Cooper has been, he is one of the best wideouts in the nation and containing him will be big. Treadwell is an even better receiver than Demarcus Robinson—who Brown handled very well—and his presence will need to be accounted for. In an epic matchup, look for Ole Miss to show the nation it deserves to be considered as a College Football Playoff contender.
Ole Miss 27 Alabama 20

STANFORD AT NOTRE DAME
The previous two battles for the Legends Trophy were decided by a touchdown, and the last meeting here in South Bend came down to the controversial goal-line stand in the final seconds. Expect points to be at a premium again, each yard a battle. Notre Dame is off to a 4-0 start, but the Michigan win is looking less impressive given the Wolverines implosion. Meanwhile, Stanford comes in 3-1 with its only loss a 13-10 decision to USC, a game that the Cardinal dominated in every way but self-destructed in the red zone SEVEN times! The Stanford defense, even after losing its core of All-Americans, is back at the top of most statistical categories. It’s passing defense is the #1 unit in the nation, quite a step up in talent level for Everett Golson, who has torched weak units from Rice, Purdue, and Syracuse. The Notre Dame offense has been passing-based, but yards will be tough to find Saturday. Stanford limited Cody Kessler (USC) to just 135 passing yards, 189 below his average. Notre Dame will need help from its ground game, and I simply do not see it happening against this stout Stanford front.
On the other side of the ball, Stanford’s offense has had its fair share of issues – mostly self-inflicted. In both the USC and Washington games, they outgained the opponent definitively, yet turnovers and self-forced errors limited the only stat that mattered, the points on the scoreboard. In both games, these fluky mistakes let the other team hang around long enough and in the USC game, it cost them a loss. Stanford will move the ball again, but it needs to capitalize in the red zone. With a senior leader in Kevin Hogan, and do-it-all Ty Montgomery, I see Stanford making enough impact plays to win it. The defense will hold, and the offense will do enough to deal the Irish its first loss, and to avoid Stanford’s playoff elimination.
Stanford 23 Notre Dame 17

OKLAHOMA AT TCU
Oklahoma’s first ranked test comes Saturday down in Fort Worth against the #25 TCU Horned Frogs who are undefeated, but 1 of just 2 teams nationwide to only have played 3 games so far. With two bye weeks already and two easy cupcake games, we have really only seen TCU take care of Minnesota 30-7. Oklahoma comes in more battle-tested, having defeated up-start Tennessee 34-10 and West Virginia 45-33. Under Gary Patterson, TCU’s identity has always been its fierce, never-give-an-inch defense; they are only surrendering 7 points a game, good for 2nd nationally. Patterson’s 3-3-5 defense is stocked with athletic linebackers and hybrid safeties that can play at both levels. This defense creates some matchup problems for passing attacks much like those found throughout the pass-happy Big 12. However, Saturday’s matchup against the OU offense will present a different challenge. I spoke this week with our Big12 Staff Writer, and Oklahoma Insider Zach Sepanik, and he pointed out the OU offensive line is big enough to be considered the 2nd biggest in the NFL! This line is massive and has been creating holes for its stable of running backs that features Samaje Perine (thunder) and Alex Ross (lightning). The powerful run game is averaging 222 yards per game – even without Keith Ford who will miss this game. As the game progresses, especially late, I expect the Sooner front to wear down TCU and churn rushing yardage.

Stoop’s defensive front seven is elite and will stuff what little rushing attack TCU has. This is a new look unit for the Horned Frogs, one that resembles Texas Tech and Oklahoma State both locations from which their new co-OC’s come from. Trevone Boykin is more of an athlete than a pocket passer, so his strong passing start has been a bit surprising. He has not faced a unit this strong, and might not again the rest of the season. Oklahoma’s talent level and leadership on both sides will be too much for the home team.
Oklahoma 34 TCU 27

NEBRASKA AT MICHIGAN STATE
There’s no avoiding it, the Big Ten has had as bad a start to a season as we’ve seen. In Week 2 alone, its 3 best East contenders were embarrassed on national television, while 2 West contenders needed miracles to survive upset bids from lowly opponents. With the calendar just now flipping to October, the league only has one undefeated team left, and they must face the highest ranked team in what could be a preview of the Big Ten title game. This is a chance for Nebraska to win a national spotlight game and ride a 6-0 start into the top 10 and playoff discussion. For Michigan State, it’s a must-win, considering a 2-loss Big Ten team has zero chance at a playoff bid. Nebraska brings the nation’s leading rusher (Ameer Abdullah) into East Lansing to challenge the 6th rated rush defense in America. Michigan State’s Connor Cook has transformed into the league’s top quarterback, and he will need to keep an eye on an All-American threat at D-end in Randy Gregory. While the Spartans like to establish their ground game, Nebraska is much stronger up front this season with what could be Pelini’s best front since the Suh days. Cook will need to make plays with his arm, and is mobile enough to extend plays – the type of QB that Pelini defenses seem to have trouble with.

Nebraska’s offense is more one-dimensional, but that dimension is elite and has been unstoppable. Ameer Abdullah (averaging 167 per) seems to run harder as the game progresses, and Nebraska’s offense is stronger in the 4th quarter. In the same sense that Oregon wore down the Spartan defense late in their game, I feel that the Big Red will be churning out yards in the second half. Admittedly, I am not too comfortable with the ball in Armstrong’s hands in late-game passing situations (his rushing game and decisions have improved, however).

While I see Nebraska with a legit shot at pulling the upset, I have been down this road with the Huskers before. Every so often, Nebraska has a national spotlight game that offers a shot to return to national prominence and join the championship discussion. But each time they have fallen flat – often embarrassed: 2007 USC, 2008 Missouri, 2010 Texas, 2011 Wisconsin, 2012 Ohio State, 2012 Wisconsin… the list goes on. While the potential is there, Michigan State is the more proven product at the moment, and has home field advantage.
Michigan State 27 Nebraska 24

LSU AT AUBURN
LSU has looked bad on defense to start the year. In its two games against noteworthy opponents, the Tigers struggled mightily. It wasn’t until Melvin Gordon was injured before this defense settled down against Wisconsin. And two weeks ago the Tigers looked horrible trying to stop the run against Mississippi State, giving up over 300 yards and 6.16 yards per carry for two rushing touchdowns. There is certainly talent on offense, but quarterback play has hindered that talent. This week, freshman Brandon Harris will take over at QB after lighting up New Mexico State after Anthony Jennings struggled to start the game. Harris certainly looks like an improved passer, but is he going to be Zach Mettenberger? No. The coaches seem to call an easier game for Harris, maybe something that should have been done for Jennings. Travin Dural and Malachi Dupre are good weapons on the outside and Leonard Fournette has performed well when given the opportunity. If Harris can simply let his playmakers make plays, there is potential on offense. However, I don’t see this Tiger defense slowing down this (Auburn) Tiger offense. Nick Marshall and company could not really get the rushing game going against Kansas State, which stalled this explosive offense. Similar to Florida State, this Auburn team doesn’t appear to be quite the team it was a season ago. The losses of Greg Robinson and Alex Kozan certainly hurt along the offensive line. Still, in this game, I don’t expect anything less than a 300 yard rushing performance. LSU is soft up the middle and it will not have starting DT Quentin Thomas this week. Auburn is pretty banged up as well, but should have most of their players ready. Not to mention, Auburn will want revenge from its only regular season loss in 2013.
Auburn 40 LSU 30

ARIZONA STATE AT SOUTHERN CAL
Last Thursday night in the desert, the Sun Devils were rallying around their back-up QB and were about to tie the game heading into halftime. Then UCLA’s Ishmael Adams housed a 95-yard Pick Six that shifted the entire game and launched the 62-27 blowout. How will ASU and Taylor Kelly replacement Mike Bercovici bounce back from the embarrassment? It doesn’t get any easier as they head into the Coliseum to face the #18 USC Trojans, who are fresh off a 35-10 stomping of Oregon State. USC played to its potential for 4 quarters and this is the elite team I thought they’d be. Yes, the Boston College loss is a dark shadow on their 2014 resume so far, but that has no impact on the Pac-12 race, and appears to be as big a fluke as we’ve seen in the last decade. Arizona State could really use Taylor Kelly here but the foot injury keeps him on the sideline Saturday. USC’s defense will force Bercovici to beat them, and while he has some flashes of success, he wont be able to sustain it for 4 quarters. Meanwhile, the powerful USC offense will exploit the Sun Devil defensive unit; look for more explosive plays like we saw them allow to UCLA. I was the only one to predict USC to win the South Division, and our pick will continue to roll.
USC 38 Arizona State 20

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