2014 Week 9 Game Previews

Week 9 Game Previews

BRETT CIANCIA and MIKE NOWOSWIAT
October 24th, 2014

Simply put, this is what we do best. As evidenced by our "Most Accurate BCS Predictions" title, we take pride in our season previews and weekly game picks. As we have done each week since we launched the site, the two of us will analyze, preview, and predict the results of the best SIX games each week.
New this season: if your team's game didn't make the cut here, our conference experts have you covered. Find the links (on the RIGHT) for further analysis for every conference game not shown on this page, along with Heisman discussion and our weekly Deion Sanders Award for the Best Pick Six of the Week.

Enjoy your Football Weekend!

SOUTH CAROLINA AT AUBURN
This looked like it would be an epic matchup in the preseason. Then South Carolina fell flat on its face in the season opener and any game that involved South Carolina lacked some of its luster. The Gamecock offense hasn’t been as explosive as people thought and the losses of Jadeveon Clowney, Kelcy Quarles, and Connor Shaw have been monumental. While this team certainly isn’t a Playoff caliber team, it is still capable of providing an upset. Just ask Georgia. Unfortunately, any team with an explosive offense is going to trouble this defense. Texas A&M and Georgia both put up big points even though Georgia was relatively one-dimensional and did not have a great gameplan. Auburn is the best offense this team will have seen to date, which will put huge pressure on Dylan Thompson to deliver. Thompson has not produced many big plays this season. He is only averaging about two passes over 25 yards per game, which has led to efficient, but not overwhelming, games. Fortunately, Mike Davis has begun to get it going with three straight 100+ yard games. Every member of South Carolina’s offense will need to bring it because Auburn should be able to score in bunches. The Tigers have become a very scary offense even though it has not quite hit the level it did at the end of last season. With the addition of Duke Williams, the passing attack is very good. Williams and Sammie Coates may be the best one-two punch at WR in the country as they are the NCAA’s version of Brandon Marshall and former Gamecock Alshon Jeffery of the Chicago Bears. Nick Marshall should be able to find these two receivers all game long. Truth be told, this is a favorable matchup for the superior team in this one—which is always bad news. While South Carolina is capable of scoring points on anybody, the consistency hasn’t been there. Auburn is sure to score points in bunches at home.
Auburn 47 South Carolina 30

WEST VIRGINIA AT OKLAHOMA STATE
This time last week, I questioned Oklahoma State’s top 15 ranking, and predicted that they would finish the year losing 5 of their last 6 games. TCU absolutely destroyed the Cowboys, laying some claim to my predictions. Gundy’s offense was outgained 676 yards to just 258, and OSU didn’t complete a single pass in the 2nd half. Next up in the relentless Big 12 gauntlet is West Virginia, who lit up Baylor and then lit up some couches in their hometown riots. It will be tough for head coach Dana Holgorsen to refocus his Mountaineer squad after such an emotional upset victory. However, he benefits from having the nation’s 3rd top passer under center in Clint Trickett who is passing for 361 yards per game. Trickett has benefitted greatly by the presence of WR Kevin White – the nation’s leading receiver, and a playmaker that simply isn’t receiving enough national attention. This WVU passing attack is for real, which spells disaster for the ‘Pokes, who are still reeling from their 42-9 beatdown. Look for WVU to pick apart the secondary all game; Oklahoma State currently has the 119th ranked passing defense (of 128). Back in August, the extremely inexperienced secondary was a major reason why I predicted OSU to finish 7th in the league – lower than anyone else in the nation had them. Despite their early 5 wins, I still stand by the pick, and expect the woes to continue in Stillwater. The ‘EERS are back in the Top 25, and they will defend their rank Saturday.
West Virginia 45 Oklahoma State 31

OLE MISS AT LSU
The Rebels come into this game in an unfamiliar position—the hunted. LSU has struggled this season and the Rebels are looking forward to a College Football Playoff berth. Most of their players are probably reading about how they will need to win two games in order to receive a birth: Mississippi State and Georgia in the SEC Championship. A game against Auburn will surely be a test, but as of now the deciding game will be Mississippi State. A one-loss SEC West team that does not make the SEC Championship will have the credentials to be selected. However, politics may keep them out as the committee may opt to limit one team per conference. In short, with Auburn and Mississippi State on the horizon, this game is a must-win. LSU is riding somewhat of a hot streak after wins against Florida and Kentucky. However, a terrible first half against Wisconsin, a terrible three quarters against Mississippi State, and a terrible game against Auburn have given 2014 a black eye. Fortunately, LSU’s strengths and weaknesses match up favorably with Ole Miss. The Rebels do not have an overpowering offensive line or a strong rushing attack. LSU’s main weakness this year has been its rush defense. The Tigers are giving up 5.73 yards per rush to teams with winning records, and over 6 yards per carry to ranked opponents. Mississippi is averaging under 4 yards per rush. However, the Rebels have had plenty of success against teams who have good rush defenses, so why are we too worried? It means LSU has a chance. Against overpowering offenses LSU will need to play nearly perfectly. But with a struggling offense and an inexperienced quarterback, this will be difficult. Amidst this minor resurgence, LSU has not found consistent QB play. Anthony Jennings has not been accurate in the last two games, but he hasn’t turned the ball over. He hasn’t thrown above 50% completions against a power 5 opponent this season. I simply do not see this offense doing much of anything against an elite defense. If Bo Wallace is the “good Bo” he has been, I expect Mississippi to win this game with ease. If he turns the ball over and becomes the “bad Bo,” this game can be close (which is true in just about any game). However, I expect Ole Miss’s rushing attack to perform better than it usually does, and I expect its defense to perform better than it usually does against a mediocre QB. So while this game may be a “good matchup” for LSU, it’s an even better matchup for Ole Miss. Forget the suspiciously close betting line in this one.
Mississippi 33 LSU 10

OHIO STATE AT PENN STATE
The last time most of the nation saw Ohio State, they were humbled at home by unranked Virginia Tech and seemed offensively handcuffed with a green starting quarterback. Since then, the Buckeyes have been on a scoring tear, putting up 50+ in 4 straight games behind JT Barrett, who is gaining confidence each week. With all of the chaos at the top of the rankings, the possibility for a 1-loss BigTen champion to earn a College Football Playoff bid is alive and well. But before the BigTen East title game in East Lansing (Nov. 8), the Bucks must go into Happy Valley for a “white-out” night game.
Penn State views Ohio State as its significant, most hate-filled rival, while OSU has the "Team Up North" at the forefront. This imbalance spites Penn Staters even more. Factoring in the Buckeye's dominance of late (9 of last 12 victories), the recruiting steal of Pennsylvania-raised Terrelle Pryor, and Urban Meyer's current regular season BigTen win streak of 18 games, it becomes evident why the Blue & White HATE the Scarlet & Gray.
While the OSU offense is surging, the PSU unit is heading in the other direction. Behind a porous offensive line, Penn State isn’t even averaging triple digits in rushing yards per game (121st nationally) and QB Christian Hackenberg has struggled this season (5 TD, 7 INT). I predicted back in August that PSU’s line would be a weak spot, but never thought it would be this crippling. Thankfully for the Blue & White, their trademark stingy defense has returned, as they only allow 15 points a game while boasting the nation’s top rush defense so far. The unit’s 5 interceptions of Rutgers QB Gary Nova helped earn a league win 13-10 over RU. But the offense has held them back in the other BigTen contests, both losses to Northwestern and Michigan. Last season the Bucks routed the Nittany Lions to the tune of 63-14, and in this series there exists a more accurate meaning for PSU’s acronym: Pick Six University, a unique mark of futility (MORE HERE). If PSU had even a pulse on offense I would give them a fighting chance in this one. Look for Bosa and Bennett to dominate the hometown O-line, causing several 3-and-outs to benefit the Buckeye offense with short fields. PSU will slow down Barrett & Co. enough to break the 50+ points streak, but not enough to win.
Ohio State 31 Penn State 10

ARIZONA STATE AT WASHINGTON
The Sun Devils are red hot and with their 1-loss record, are still alive in the College Football Playoff discussion. They must continue to win, and need this victory to remain afloat in the tight Pac-12 South race, one in which 5 of 6 teams are ranked. While backup Mike Bercovici has done more than what was expected, ASU gets their star QB Taylor Kelly back “100% healthy.” The young and inexperienced Devil defense appeared to be the liability back in August. Now halfway through the season, there have been marked gains, and they completely shut down defending league champ Stanford last week 26-10.
They travel North to Seattle to take on Chris Petersen’s Huskies in an always loud environment. After a promising 5-1 start, UW limps into this battle, after a devastating 45-20 loss to Oregon (their 11th straight loss to the Ducks). The defense gave up 336 passing yards to Marcus Mariota, and Kelly wont be much easier to stop. Even with homefield advantage, look for Arizona State to stay in Playoff contention.
Arizona State 34 Washington 26

SOUTHERN CAL AT UTAH
ESPN chose to send College Gameday down to LSU’s Death Valley (yet another SEC/Southern location) rather than up to Rice-Eccles for arguably Utah’s biggest home game since joining the Pac-12 in 2012… and Utah fans are upset. Regardless of the slight, this game is crucial to the wide-open Pac-12 South race that features 5 (of 6) teams ranked in the Top 25. Utah is a point away from being unbeaten, but also survived 2 wild bouts with UCLA (missed game-winning FG) and Oregon State (2OT thriller). Kyle Whittingham has done an incredible job to this point, and this national game is huge for the program. He will need to be able to refocus his team weekly, as the upcoming gauntlet includes 4 ranked teams with the 5th being Stanford. First, the USC Trojans come to town, a team that is a Hail Mary away from being the only unbeaten team within conference play. Sarkisian has his offense firing on all cylinders, a balanced attack led by QB Cody Kessler, who has the 2nd best TD to INT ratio in America behind only Mariota. Buck Allen is approaching 1000 rushing yards for the season, while Nelson Agholor is a playmaker at receiver AND in the return game. Meanwhile, Utah has had some issues moving the ball through the air, and has relied solely on its rushing attack. I expect USC to have some success slowing down the Utes’ ground game, at least enough to put more importance on the arms of Wilson and Thompson, who together only mustered up 62 passing yards last game. It will be an electric atmosphere Saturday night, and the makeup of the Utah team along with the homefield advantage reminds me a bit of the Boston College upset over the Trojans in Week 3. I think they learned their lesson up in Chestnut Hill, and will be focused enough here to gain a HUGE P12 South victory.
Southern Cal 27 Utah 20

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Week 9 Game Previews

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