2016 ACC Atlantic Division Preview

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
August 1st, 2016

1. Clemson Tigers

JIM NOWOSWIAT
ACC Staff Writer

Playoff Pick

What a job Dabo Swinney has done in Clemson, South Carolina. Inheriting a solid Tiger program, Swinney has turned it into a national powerhouse as he enters his 9th year at the helm. The Tigers were six points away from having an all-time great season last year, losing to a stellar Alabama team in the National Championship game. While disappointing at the end, last season was a huge step for the Clemson program. They are now considered among the nation’s elite programs, and they return Heisman front-runner Deshaun Watson at quarterback. 2015 was a year to remember for Tiger fans, and 2016 should be no different.

OFFENSE
What more needs to be said about Deshaun Watson? The quarterback was unbelievable in the championship game against one of the nation’s best defenses in Alabama, and he returns this year as an experienced upperclassman on a mission. Watson completed 68% of his passes while throwing for 4,104 yards in 15 games last year; as long as he is healthy all season, Watson should reach those numbers again and will be the Heisman favorite coming into the season. Just having Watson would make for an imposing offense, but the weapons around him make Clemson downright scary. Running back Wayne Gallman is returning after earning 1st Team All-ACC honors last year; Gallman gained 5.4 yards per carry and rushed for 1,527 yards last year. Behind Gallman is incoming freshman Tavien Feaster who is one of the best prospects in the nation—assuming he progresses well throughout camp he could be a nice complement to Gallman all season. The receiving corps is experienced with juniors Artavis Scott and Mike Williams highlighting the group. Williams missed all of last season with an injury after earning 2nd Team All-ACC in 2014; his return is expected to be a big boost for the Tiger offense this year. The offensive line is experienced—while a few haven’t started many games, all have seen action in most games and should provide good protection for Watson and create holes for Gallman against any competition they face.

DEFENSE
The Tigers lose 7 starters from last year on defense but are loaded with talent so there shouldn’t be a big drop-off from 2015. The defensive line is particularly young with two sophomores and a freshman expected to start. However, freshman Dexter Lawrence is a five-star prospect that should be impressive this year given his monstrous 6’5” 340 pound frame. Linebacker Ben Boulware is a senior leader that earned 1st Team All-ACC last year; his leadership will be invaluable for the Tigers this year as they try to navigate with a young lineup. Boulware made 82 tackles and 3.5 sacks last year and will need to keep those numbers up to keep the Tigers among the nation’s top performers. Cornerbacks Cordrea Tankersley and Mark Fields are both cherished options for Clemson as they return this year after producing noteworthy seasons in the Tigers run to the championship game last year. Clemson allowed 21.7 point per game while allowing 313 yards per game last year—both are impressive statistics and a large reason why they had such a tremendous year last year. It’s never easy having to replace 7 impactful players, but with Clemson’s recruiting, player development, and creative game plans from defensive coordinator Brent Venables, I believe the Tigers will be in good shape on the defensive side of the ball in 2016.

BOTTOM LINE
It’s not easy following up a 14-1 season along with a national championship appearance, but Clemson is at the point in which they are a contender year in and year out. Aside from playing Auburn, their out of conference schedule is a cake walk, and their cross division match ups of Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh should be no issue for the Tigers. If Watson can play at the same level he did last year, Clemson is in great shape; their offense is experienced and extremely talented, and their defense, while not quite as experienced, is in good hands under Brent Venables and should be a formidable defense yet again. The key showdowns between Louisville and Florida State will decide if they will play for another conference championship, and I believe Tiger fans will be traveling to Charlotte, NC in December once again to celebrate another ACC title.

2. Florida State Seminoles

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

It’s good to be a Seminole fan this day and age. Since Jimbo Fisher took over the program 7 years ago, Florida State has constantly fielded a very competitive team highlighted by a perfect 2013 season ending in a national championship. Last season was an adjustment transitioning from the Jameis Winston era, yet they still recorded a 10-3 record and earned a bid to the Peach Bowl. This year, however, Florida State is expected to return to the national championship conversation. The Seminoles were plagued by a lack of experience with only 11 returning starters in 2015, but this year they return everyone on offense and six on defense. Expectations are high once again in Tallahassee, and an ACC title and a spot in the final four is a possibility.

OFFENSE
Jameis Winston is a hard act to follow at the quarterback position—Sean Maguire certainly learned that last year. While he wasn’t a liability by any means, he wasn’t tremendous. Deondre Francois, a redshirt freshman, has been impressive the entire off season, and, as of now, is expected to be the starter for the Seminoles. Despite the encouraging play of Francois, the ‘Noles—at the very least—can put their faith in Maguire who led Florida State to a good season last year and has improved after a year of experience. Put briefly, Florida State will have better quarterback play this year whether it is Francois or Maguire taking the snaps. All the Seminoles need from their quarterback is solid, consistent play as everyone returns on offense and looks to build on a successful 2015 campaign. Dalvin Cook, possibly the best running back in the country, returns for Florida State and is expected to have another dominant year. Cook rushed for 1683 yards last year averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per carry. Further, wide receivers Kermit Whitfield and Travis Rudolph are both All-ACC playmakers that have impressed all spring and, given improved quarterback play, should explode this year and earn All-ACC honors yet again. The line is experienced and skilled; left guard Kareem Are and left tackle Roderick Johnson are both elite lineman that are going to be stellar yet again for the Seminoles. Florida State averaged an impressive 31.7 points per game last year, and with everyone back it is scary just how good they can be in 2016.

DEFENSE
Florida State has had stellar defenses in the past few years. While some of their play makers from last year are playing on Sundays now, they are loaded with young talent and experienced veterans that should put them among the top defenses in the nation once again. Defensive end Demarcus Walker is back after a monstrous 2015 year, and it is fair to expect an All-America type year from the 6’3” 273 pound beast. Josh Sweat is a sophomore linebacker that was very highly regarded coming out of high school; after a promising freshman campaign look for Sweat to turn into one of the conference’s finest players. The defensive backs are led by seniors Marquez White and Nate Andrews—both have shown they are capable of great play and will provide critical leadership for the many young guys in the starting lineup. The ‘Noles allowed a solid 3.8 yards per carry and 17.5 points last year and with a decent amount of returning starters combined with top-tier talent those numbers should not get any worse this year.

BOTTOM LINE
The Atlantic is widely considered a two horse race between Florida State and Clemson. While I believe Louisville can absolutely contend this year, I agree that the Seminoles and Tigers are on a tier of their own. The experience for Florida State—particularly on offense—is frightening. It’s going to be another fun ride in Tallahassee this year, and if it weren’t for Deshaun Watson of Clemson the Seminoles would be the logical pick for number one in the division. Regardless, Florida State will be in an impressive bowl game once again, and they have a great shot at making 2016 a banner year.

3. Louisville Cardinals

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

Say what you will about Bobby Petrino, but the guy can coach a football team. While the past two years have been solid, not great (9-4 in ’14, 8-5 in ’15), the Cardinals are poised to make a leap in Petrino’s third year back at the helm. Louisville returns 9 starters on offense and 8 starters on defense, giving them one of the most experienced lineups in the ACC. Not to mention, sophomore QB Lamar Jackson returns after nearly single-handedly reviving the Louisville offense at the end of last season. The Atlantic is top-heavy with Florida State and Clemson leading the pack, but Louisville is strong enough this year to potentially make a push into the exclusive top two spots of the division.

OFFENSE
The ceiling is high for Lamar Jackson--if he makes the usual jump from freshman to sophomore year, he should be one of the premier quarterbacks in the conference. Jackson’s support staff will be explosive, giving him the options he needs to thrive. Senior running back Brandon Radcliff returns after making 5 starts and rushing for over 600 yards—I expect him to be a very solid starter in 2016. The main attractions on this offense, however, are found in the receiving corps. James Quick and Jamari Staples are big threats, and Traveon Samuel could have a huge year making a living on dump passes and using his athleticism to make plays. Further, Tight end Cole Hikutini is an extremely athletic tight end with the potential to be an All-ACC caliber player.

DEFENSE
Defensively, the Cardinals are not as strong as they are on offense, but with 8 returning starters the defense will not be a weakness. The defensive line is solid across the board; James Hearns, DeAngelo Brown, Chris Williams, and Drew Bailey are all good players that—while they may not be all-conference—will make plays for the Cards all year. The quarterback of the defense, Keith Kelsey, returns after a 1st team All-ACC selection last year with 107 tackles last year. Kelsey is an intelligent player that dictates the play of the defense; if Kelsey is sharp and playing well, the Cards’ defense should be in good shape. Devonte Fields is another linebacker that has proven he is a force to be reckoned with--Fields earned 2nd team All-ACC last year with 64 tackles and 11 sacks. Louisville has the talent to have a very valuable defense this year, and if they make that come to fruition they could be a tough match-up for any team in the country.

BOTTOM LINE
In my opinion, Louisville is a lock for a top-three finish in the Atlantic; Boston College, NC State, Wake Forest and Syracuse do not have the talent nor the coaching prowess Louisville possesses. That said, the Cardinals will have to beat either Florida State or Clemson, two of the top teams in the nation, to catapult itself into the elite of the division. While I believe they have the ability to do so, Clemson and Florida State are too talented this year to pick against them. The Cards may not play for a conference championship this year, but they are in position for a 9-3 or 10-2 regular season record and a spot in a top-tier bowl game.

Correspondence with Nick Burch, InsideTheVille.com

4. NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK

JIM NOWOSWIAT
ACC Staff Writer

As Dave Doeren enters his 4th season at the helm of the NC State program, avoiding mediocrity once again becomes paramount for the Wolfpack. After all, 7-6 and 8-5 records are the reason his predecessor, Tom O’Brien, was shown the door. Despite making considerable strides from 2013 to 2014 (3-9 in 2013, 8-5 in 2014), the 2015 season saw a small step backwards by earning a 7-6 record. The Wolfpack should improve this year, but how much their record will show for it remains to be seen.

OFFENSE
Offensively, the Pack could be fun to watch this year; new offensive coordinator and Gus Malzahn disciple Eli Drinkwitz comes from Boise St having a reputation of running a pass first, fast pace offense. While Drinkwitz was able to pry QB Ryan Finley from Boise St as a transfer, it appears that Jalan McClendan will be the one taking the starting spot for NC State. McClendan has a big frame—6’5”, 212 lbs.—and has been running the offense well this spring and summer. While McClendan has the potential to be a very strong quarterback in the ACC, I expect him to be solid; he won’t take over games himself but he should be able to manage the game and let his play makers carry the load. The two big names for the Wolfpack that should be poised to have huge years are Matthew Dayes and Jaylen Samuels. Dayes was having a breakout season last year but was injured 8 games into the season. If he stays healthy, Dayes should be extremely productive for Drinkwitz’s offense and will be utilized frequently. Further, Jaylen Samuels, the team MVP last year, is a do-it-all offensive threat that has been moved all over the field and continues to produce at a high level. A first-team all-ACC player last year, Samuels led the country in touchdowns for tight ends. With his 4.51 40 time, expect Samuels to be all over the field in Drinkwitz’s offense wreaking havoc for the Pack.

DEFENSE
On the defensive side of the ball, DE Bradley Chubb and BJ Hill are two of the best defensive linemen in the conference and should have impactful years. Chubb led the conference for defensive ends in tackles with 69 in 2015, and has come back looking stronger and more explosive. Hill, on the other hand, is the Pack’s leading defensive tackle with 51 tackles last year and has proven to be a reliable force for defensive coordinator Dave Huxtable. While the defensive line is undoubtedly their strongest unit, the total defense returns 8 starters including Dravious Wright, a 3-year starter and impact player in the secondary. Defending the likes of Notre Dame, Clemson, Louisville and Florida State is no easy task, but the Wolfpack will benefit from having an experienced defense that has continued to improve each and every year under Huxtable.

BOTTOM LINE
I expect NC State to improve this year; unfortunately, I do not expect the numbers to show for it. Last year NC State did not win a big game, and with Notre Dame, Clemson, Louisville, Florida State, Miami and North Carolina headlining the schedule, it’s going to be tough to escape the land of mediocrity. Assuming the Pack takes care of its remaining schedule, that gives them 6 wins; expecting them to beat 3 of those 6 teams named above is unrealistic, thus leaving them at a probable 7-6 or 8-5 record. The Wolfpack will go bowling again, but they should once again be in for an average season.

Correspondence with James Henderson, Pack Pride

5. BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

Steve Addazio did a tremendous job with Temple during his tenure with the Owls, and he showed great promise by taking a 2-10 Eagles team to 7-6 in his first year. Unfortunately, Boston College hasn’t seen improvement since, and they fell all the way to 3-9 last year despite a stout defense. This year should be a different story, however, as they draw a reasonable cross conference schedule (Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech) and return the majority of their starters from the previous year. They may not be the Matt Ryan BC Eagles, but they will be a much improved version in regard to last year’s team.

OFFENSE
On offense, Kentucky transfer Patrick Towles will be leading the Eagles; he has experience under his belt and has good arm strength that can stretch the field. Towles struggles with some of his reads, but he should be a decent, competent quarterback in the ACC. The main attraction of this offense is running back Jon Hilliman, who is coming off of a season ending foot injury last year after earning All-ACC honors as a freshman. The running back has looked strong throughout the spring and it is fair to expect a big comeback year in 2016. Another legitimate threat for the Eagles this year is tight end Tommy Sweeney. Sweeney is a 6’5” 246 pound sophomore who made 9 starts last year and has been very impressive throughout the spring--look for Sweeney to be utilized frequently for the Eagles this year. The offensive line will not be outstanding, but it will not be a liability, either. Center Jon Baker has a high upside and should have a very prodiuctive year; aside from Baker, the rest of the line is average the will hold its own against enough teams but will struggle when faced with elite competition.

DEFENSE
Despite not having much individual talent, Boston College had one of the nation’s premier defenses in 2015. Defensive coordinator Don Brown has since moved on to Michigan, and while the Eagles return 7 starters I expect a dip in performance this year due to the loss of Brown. Defensive end Harold Landry and linebacker Matt Milano are both elite players at their respective positions, with all conference honors likely coming their way. Defensive tackle Truman Gutapfel is a player with high upside and could potentially have a big year as a senior leader, and former 4 star recruit Connor Strachan has proven himself to be a very good linebacker and is expected to have another productive year for Boston College. However, aside from those players, the rest of the defense is good—not great—and will suffer from the missing genius of Don Brown. Boston College allowed an almost unthinkable 2.4 yards per carry last year, and to expect them to repeat that this year is foolish. That said, even a large dip in performance from last year will still yield an impressive product for Boston College this year.

BOTTOM LINE
Boston College has the ability to catapult themselves into the middle of the Atlantic this year; the top three teams are on their own level, but it is reasonable to expect the Eagles to land either 4th or 5th in the division. They return 8 starters on offense and 7 starters on defense, and they have the fortune of star running back Jon Hilliman returning to the field thus year. With their schedule this year, and entering Addazio’s fourth year at the helm, it would be a disappointment if BC can’t return to a bowl game this season.

Correspondence with A.J. Black, BC Interruption

6. SYRACUSE ORANGE

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

Ever since the Ryan Nassib years, Syracuse has failed to earn a winning record and make a bowl game. The Orange ushered in Scott Shafer to lead the program after Doug Marrone got it back on track, but after only recording one winning season in 3 years, with no signs of improvement, Syracuse decided it was time to change course. Now, they have brought in Dino Babers, an exciting hire coming from two extremely successful—albeit short-stints at Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green. Babers has been all over the country as an assistant coach and finally got his break as a head coach 4 years ago at age 51. Now, he takes over a depleted Orange roster and has the challenge of navigating them toward the top of the Atlantic. It’s no small task, but Babers has shown quick improvement at Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green so anything is possible for him and the Orange.

OFFENSE
The Orange return sophomore QB Eric Dungey after starting 7 games and completing 60% of his attempts as a true freshman in 2015. Babers is a known as a passing aficionado so I expect Dungey will improve as time goes on and be a very competent quarterback in the ACC. Dontae Strickland is expected to be starting at running back; he saw limited time last year and should figure to be an average running back for the Orange this year. The best threat on the Orange offense is Steve Ishmael as he has looked very impressive throughout the spring. Ishmael started 12 games last year and averaged 14.6 yards per reception; if Dungey has time in the pocket and makes improvements from last year Ishmael will have a huge year for Syracuse. The offensive line is an issue for the Orange as no one is expected to be an above average starter. The line may be able to hold their own against the bottom of the division, but once they start playing the top half of the division serious issues will arise.

DEFENSE
The Orange defense will have a tough time this year despite returning 8 starters. On the positive side, the defense should return all but one player next year, but the overall talent level is lacking for the upcoming season. Their best player is junior linebacker Zaire Franklin who recorded 81 tackles and 3 sacks in 12 starts last year. He will need to be the glue that hold this defense together. Everywhere else, the defense is littered with average starters that could be good in a few years with more experience but will struggle to keep up this fall. Safety Antwan Cordy came on strong at the end of last year, so he could develop into a playmaker for the Orange this year, and cornerback Cordell Hudson has looked impressive throughout the spring . However, neither are among the upper echelon of the conference and will need to surpass expectations for the Orange to have a strong secondary.

BOTTOM LINE
Syracuse, like many schools in the ACC recently, seems to have made a very legitimate coaching hire in Dino Babers. Babers quickly turned around both Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green in 2 year stints, so Syracuse has a reason to be excited about the future. However, this year the odds are stacked against them to get to a bowl and earn a winning record. Their cross conference draws of Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh are not easy games, and dealing with Florida State, Clemson, and Louisville every year is daunting. I believe Babers will improve the Orange this year, but the wins will not show up until a few more years in Syracuse.

Correspondence with NunesMagician.com

7. WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

Looking at Wake Forest this year, it is astonishing how young—and oddly experienced—they are. Sophomores and juniors dominate the projected starting lineup, and most of them are returning starters. It seems very likely the Demon Deacons will improve in Dave Clawson’s third year in Winston-Salem after consecutive three win seasons the past two years; how much they will improve, however, is the tough question. Wake figures to be at the bottom half of the Atlantic again, but with a favorable home schedule and winnable out of conference games it is conceivable Wake will go bowling for the first time since Jim Grobe’s years.

OFFENSE
Last year was an absolute struggle offensively as they only gained 3 yards per carry and averaged a mere 17.4 points per game. That said, Wake Forest returns 9 of 11 starters—a decent sign of improvement for the Demon Deacons. At quarterback, it is possible to see both John Wolford and Kendall Hinton this year; Wolford saw 10 starts last year versus Hinton’s 2 starts. Both options will be solid this year—they both will not be great by any measures but it is fair to expect them to be slightly above average players that will manage the game effectively. Along those same lines is sophomore running back Tyler Bell. Bell made 6 starts as a freshman last year gaining 3.5 yards per carry; I expect Bell to get closer to the 4 yards per carry mark this year and will prove to be a competent option in the backfield this year. Wake’s best option on offense is Tight End Cam Serigne who has had two impressive years so far as a Demon Deacon. Serigne earned honorable-mention All-ACC in 2014, and average 12.2 yards per reception last year. This offense isn’t full of star power, but look for Serigne to have another all conference year this year.

DEFENSE
The defense appears to have four big play makers surrounded by decent ACC players. On the line, Duke Eljiford provided a big lift coming back from injury last year, and if he stays healthy he could make a huge difference for Wake all year long. At linebacker, Marquel Lee is far and away the best for the Demon Deacons; he has played in nearly every game in his career so far, and he has the talent and experience to turn in a big senior year. Further, Cornerback Brad Watson and safety Ryan Janvion are two integral components of this Wake Forest defense and need to have big years to keep this defense competitive throughout the year. Both are senior leaders and could potentially land an All-ACC selection this year. The rest of the defense is filled with decent players; it is going to be imperative for defensive coordinator Mike Elko to draw up effective schemes and maximize the talent to keep Wake Forest competitive in the Atlantic.

BOTTOM LINE
Wake Forest is in an interesting position now; it has the combination of youth and experience that, mixed with good coaching, could produce solid seasons in the next few years. The Demon Deacons have been through some dark times recently and haven’t even sniffed a postseason game in quite some time now. This year could be different. If Wake can take care of the games they are supposed to, and win some of the toss ups, they could realistically look at a 6 win season and go to a bowl game. Regardless of the record, Wake will improve from last year and will be competitive in more games than not.

In correspondence with Les Johns, Demon Deacon Digest