2016 ACC Coastal Division Preview

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
August 1st, 2016

1. miami Hurricanes

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

For the Hurricanes, the hiring of head coach Mark Richt might be the biggest victory since the 2001 National Championship—well, maybe one of those legendary Nevin Shapiro yacht parties may have been bigger. While Richt has yet to win a title of his own, he had tremendous success at Georgia, and lasted 15 years as the head coach at a prominent SEC school which is unheard of this day and age. Indeed, Richt will be an immediate improvement over former coach Al Golden, and the pairing of Richt—a quarterback guru—with All-ACC junior Brad Kaaya could prove to be a lethal combination. Further, Miami’s schedule is as good as it can be for them; the Hurricanes have the unfortunate pairing of Florida State as their annual cross division matchup, but they have both FSU and North Carolina at home. The rest of their ACC schedule is very manageable, and with some newfound excitement in Coral Gables, this team should have a big year with an ACC title game on the horizon.

OFFENSE
On offense, the Canes have the fortune of returning Kaaya at QB; this year will be his third year as a starter and he has earned All-ACC honors both as a freshman and as a sophomore. The all-conference QB threw for over 3,000 yards last year and had a 61% completion rating, and given that Kaaya has looked sharp throughout the spring, it is expected that he will maintain his all-conference form this year. The offensive line is a potential weak spot for the Hurricanes as only RG Daniel Isidora is expected to be an elite level player. However, Kaaya will have weapons at running back and wide receiver, particularly Joseph Yearby and Stacy Coley, that should allow Kaaya to excel and showcase his talents. Further, Richt is expected to call the plays on offense for the first time in years; with 9 returning starters and a top-level quarterback, Richt will have the personnel he needs to make this offense powerful in the ACC.

DEFENSE
The defense for the Hurricanes should be very solid with the potential of being great. There are no liabilities on the defense, and they have an experienced defensive coordinator in Manny Diaz leading the way. Last year, Miami allowed 5.3 yards per carry—an issue that led to the Hurricanes allowing at least 20 points to every team except Bethune-Cookman. This year, however, the yards per carry should go down as they return 6 starters and have a scary defensive line with Gerald Willis and Al-Quadin Muhammad anchoring the trenches. At linebacker, expect Jermaine Grace to have an all-conference year; he has looked very sharp throughout the spring and brings invaluable senior leadership to the defense. Further, another senior that is expected to have a huge year and possible All-ACC campaign is Rayshawn Jenkins. Jenkins suffered a back injury that kept him sidelined in 2014, but he had a good comeback campaign in 2015 with 52 tackles and 3 interceptions while making eight starts. Now that he has had a year to get the rust off, and performed well throughout the spring, I expect him to make a big leap and become a key component for the Miami defense.

BOTTOM LINE
Ever since joining the ACC, Miami has never been able to get back to the level of dominance they achieved in the 80’s, 90’s and early 2000’s. In fact, they haven’t been all that good since they joined the ACC, with mostly mediocre records, zero titles, and 3 head coaching changes. However, for the first time since they had Butch Jones, I believe Miami has the coach they need to win a conference title and maybe someday a national title. While the SEC East was not the premier division in football the past few years, Richt will benefit from not having to go through the top conference in football year in and year out to get to the Promised Land. Add that to the fact that Miami is a sleeping giant, and there is the possibility for years of dominance to come in South Florida. While this year a spot in the final four is doubtful, I expect the Canes to play in the ACC title game, and finally be in the upper tier of the conference they were supposed to dominate for the past decade.

Correspondence with Cam Underwood, TheStateOfTheU.com

2. North Carolina Tar Heels

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

North Carolina finally had a breakthrough season after struggling to recover from the Butch Davis experiment, which was an era filled with talented players and academic scandal. Unfortunately, Fedora struggled out of the gate and didn't seem to attract quite the same caliber of player that Davis did. Fedora's high-powered offense was fully loaded for a couple drives per game before sputtering. Finally, the Heels found their groove in 2015 behind senior QB Marquise Williams and explosive playmakers. Despite criticism for playing an easy schedule, UNC went toe-to-toe with eventual National Runner-up Clemson. Perhaps Larry Fedora was just a late-bloomer.

OFFENSE
On offense, the Heels are going to be powerful once again. RB Elijah Hood is a premier player with All-America potential after earning 1st team all-conference last year. Rushing for 1,463 yards last year, Hood is a game-changer and with another year of growth and development, there is a good possibility of those numbers reaching the 2,000 mark. Directing the Heels under center this year will be Mitch Trubisky, a prototypical quarterback standing at 6’3” 220 lbs. Last year, Trubisky played in 9 games backing up Marquise Williams—while Williams had an impressive season, I expect there to be little if any drop off with Trubisky leading the Tar Heels offense. Through spring ball, Trubisky has impressed many, and with the weapons around him Trubisky could be in position to earn an All-ACC nod. While Hood will be utilized frequently, receivers Mack Hollins and Ryan Switzer are more than capable options. Both players earned All-ACC honors last year, and there is every reason to believe they will be named all-conference again this year as they have looked sharp throughout the spring. With 7 of 11 players returning on offense, and a quarterback in Trubisky looking sharp through the off season, expect another explosive offense in Chapel Hill this year.

DEFENSE
Defensively, the Heels are once again led by the worst head coach to win a national championship—Gene Chizik. While his head coaching prowess may be doubted, Chizik has proven himself as an impressive defensive coordinator, and with another year under his belt in Chapel Hill, North Carolina’s defense should improve. Like the offense, the defense returns 7 of 11 players; unlike the offense, however, the defense has little star power returning. The best unit on the defensive side is the cornerbacks—namely MJ Stewart and Desmond Lawrence. Stewart earned 2nd Team All-ACC while starting 12 games and making 62 tackles and 4 interceptions. He is a dynamic player that will have a tremendous season again this year. Lawrence also earned 2nd team All-ACC and is a senior leader that recorded 59 tackles and 2 interceptions in 14 games started last year, and is expected to retain all-conference honors. Aside from those two play makers, the Heels defense lacks many other notable names; DT Nazair Jones is a player that will make plays all year long, but the rest of the defense is expected to be solid but not exceptional. Chizik will have to rely on his schemes and preparation to get this defense to the next level, as it does not have the talent to be suffocating on its own.

BOTTOM LINE
North Carolina is in a unique position this year—they have to deal with the pressure of repeating a great season, not a disappointing one. It took Fedora until his 4th year to get the program where he wanted it to be, and now that he has some momentum there could be many more favorable seasons to come in Chapel Hill. The offense is good enough to win a lot of games for the Tar Heels this year, but if they want to take it to the next level with a conference title, the defense is going to have to improve from last year; a shoot-out with the likes of Florida State and potentially Clemson is not a recommended route to victory. With all that said, Carolina is in a good position this year, and should see a 2nd place finish in the coastal.

Correspondence with Greg Barnes, Inside Carolina

3. Virginia Tech Hokies

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

For the first time since 1987, Virginia Tech will not have Frank Beamer on the sidelines coaching the Hokies. Beamer’s career was phenomenal; in 29 years Beamer recorded 238 wins and made the postseason every year since 1993. While he is undoubtedly the father of Virginia Tech football, it was time to make a change as the Hokies have fallen off by earning mediocre records in the past 4 years. Enter Justin Fuente. Fuente was an unknown name a few years ago at Memphis-he was just a former arena football player with no real track record. However, he did a tremendous job with the Tigers by completely turning around their program, and in doing so made himself a hot commodity this year in the coaching search. Under Fuente, this Virginia Tech team should improve from last year; the Hokies keep long time DC Bud Foster and have a very favorable cross conference schedule. The QB position is a big question mark, but with Fuente’s new offense and the continuity of the defense Virginia Tech will be back in the mix of the coastal.

OFFENSE
Jerod Evans is expected to start at QB this year for the Hokies; while he will not be a game changer at that position, I expect him to be competent by managing the game and not turning the ball over too much. Further, Evans will benefit from having elite weapons around him that will take the pressure off of him to make plays. Running back Travon McMillian had a tremendous year last year—he earned 3rd Team All-ACC as a freshman rushing for 1,043 yards gaining 5.2 yards per carry. McMillian has looked remarkable throughout the spring and is poised to have another all conference year. The biggest threat for the Hokies will once again be Isaiah Ford; Ford was a 1st Team All-ACC selection last year, and he should benefit from being in an improved Justin Fuente offense. Tight End Bucky Hodges will also be utilized frequently this year—he was a 2nd Team All-ACC player and has proven he can make plays downfield. The offensive line is not as strong as their skill positions; the coaching staff is high on LG Wyatt Teller, but there is no one that will dominate the trenches for the Hokies. If Evans and the offensive line can be solid, and not a liability, the Hokies’ offense will be impressive due to their immense talent at the skill positions.

DEFENSE
Surprisingly, Virginia Tech was able to retain Bud Foster as defensive coordinator despite him not receiving the head coaching job after 29 years on the Hokie sidelines. It is unusual for a coach to put aside his ego and disappointment like that, but by doing so Foster has proven his ultimate loyalty to Virginia Tech and the two sides should benefit from that decision to stay this year. Last year was a disappointing year for the Tech defense, as they allowed 4.6 yards per carry and 26.3 points per game. However, with the continuity of Foster at defensive coordinator, and 7 returning starters, the Hokie defense should be stronger this year. Virginia Tech has one returning All-ACC defensive player in DE Ken Ekanem, and while he regressed a bit last year he should once again be an all-conference player and I expect him to earn a 2nd or 3rd team All-ACC nod this year. Chuck Clark is a senior strong safety that has a great deal of experience under his belt and will be a big leader for the Hokie defense—he is a player that I believe will have a big year and will be a big clog in the secondary. The linebackers are a weak point for Foster’s defense this year, but with a very solid defensive line and secondary the Hokies will make improvements from a year ago.

BOTTOM LINE
As shown year after year, anything can happen in the ACC Coastal. It’s probably the toughest division to predict in college football. But while it’s a nightmare for us, it is a blessing for a team like Virginia Tech this year. On paper, Virginia Tech is not a team that should make the ACC title game; they have to adopt a new coaching system and philosophy and their talent level is good but not great. However, “the rules are there are no rules” in the Coastal, and there isn’t any team that is on another level like Florida State and Clemson in the Atlantic. So, while I believe Miami and North Carolina will finish in the top two, Virginia Tech has the ability to challenge the Coastal and, with a few breaks here and there, could find themselves in the top two once again.

Correspondence with Evan Watkins, 247 Sports

4. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

The Jackets hit rock bottom in 2015 after peaking in 2014. It was a surprising fall for a team that featured a returning quarterback and an improved defense. Due to the intricacies of Paul Johnson’s offense, the loss of several key players at running back and wide receiver proved to be impossible to overcome, and this dire situation was exacerbated by many injuries. After suffering close loss after close loss, the Yellow Jackets are primed to rebound in 2016.

OFFENSE
In 2014, the Georgia Tech offense tied a modern day record for 3rd down conversion percentage. The offensive line, led by All-American Shaq Mason, was able to get a consistent push to help make third downs manageable. For the first time this century, the Jackets thoroughly manhandled Georgia in the trenches, which led to a thrilling overtime victory. In addition, WR DeAndre Smelter proved to be the best wide receiver since Demaryius Thomas and bailed the offense out in the rare times the ground game stalled. Without Smelter and Darren Waller, the GT receivers failed to consistently win one-on-one matchups, and Justin Thomas’ completion percentage plummeted. The offensive line struggled last year, particularly in pass protection, but the A-backs and wide receivers often missed the most critical blocks. The greatest reason why I expect tremendous improvement on offense is that I expect improved blocking from the skill positions. The raw talent at running back may be improved over the 2014 team, but the comfort in the system and the blocking are nowhere near where they were.

DEFENSE
The Georgia Tech defense will face a tough challenge to replace some key players. Cornerback DJ White and DT Adam Gotsis were the top players on this defense last year, and both are now in the NFL. White’s former counterpart, Chris Milton, also departs after playing well the past two years. Fortunately, USC transfer Lamont Simmons is now eligible to play and could enter the starting lineup along with Step Durham to replace both White and Milton. However, Lance Austin could get the call to start alongside his brother, Lawrence, who is an above-average nickel corner. While they most likely won’t match last year’s ability, Simmons and Durham are both big corners that would present a unique look. The front seven has been an issue in the Paul Johnson era, except for the first two years when players like Michael Johnson and Derrick Morgan, who were originally signed by Chan Gailey, led a very formidable group. Aside from the very large hole left by Gotsis, the front seven remains relatively intact and could be aided by the help of some freshmen. Defensive end KeShun Freeman is a very solid all-around player, who will need to improve his pass rush ability otherwise opposing quarterbacks could have a long time to throw and defensive coordinator Ted Roof will need to rely on the blitz.

BOTTOM LINE
Both 2014 and 2015 were anomalies for Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech, but moreso 2015. The Jackets have consistently finished in the top two of the Coastal Division, so it would be unwise to rank the Jackets at the bottom of the ACC, especially with Justin Thomas returning at quarterback. Unfortunatley for GT, their nemesis Mark Richt has moved into the division and figures to be an improvement over Al Golden, thus making the division much more difficult. With an easier schedule this year, expect the Yellow Jackets to surprise everyone who wrote them off after last season.

5. PITTSBURGH PANTHERS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

Pittsburgh had a bit of a crazy year in 2015; they lost head coach Paul Christ to Wisconsin, hired Pat Narduzzi from Michigan State, and had to deal with the shock of star RB James Conner having cancer. Despite all of that, the Panthers had a solid year finishing 8-5 and recording zero losses to bad teams. While Pitt improved from 2014 to 2015, I do not expect the Panthers to make that same jump from 2015 to 2016—at least not in terms of their record. Pitt’s schedule is tough, and with the improvement of the ACC coastal it is going to be tough for them to surpass their win total from last year.

OFFENSE
The highlight for the offense this year is the return of James Conner to the field; he has shown he is a true warrior by fighting cancer and his presence will surely impact the team in ways that can’t be measured. QB Nathan Peterman, a former Tennessee transfer, could have a huge year for the Panthers and has All-ACC potential. Peterman looks the part with a 6’2” 225 pound frame, and he had a very solid year in 2015 completing 62% of his passes and threw for 20 touchdowns. Peterman finished second in the ACC in completion percentage, third in touchdown passes and fourth in passing efficiency—assuming he makes improvements this year and builds off of his solid spring he should be in for another good year. Pitt gained a solid 4.8 yards per carry last year with ACC rookie of the year Qadree Ollison, and with the return of Conner this combination should be very difficult to stop for opposing defenses. The wide receivers are a weak point for the Panthers, so the run game will be vital to their success; if the offensive line can give Ollison and Conner opportunities, the Pitt offense will be fine. However, with few downfield threats, it will be easy for defenses to load the box and force the receivers to beat them.

DEFENSE
For years, head coach Pat Narduzzi was one of the best defensive coordinators in the nation at Michigan State, and with a year under his belt at Pitt, the Panthers defense should improve this year. In 2015 the Panthers were not great by any means; Pitt allowed 4.3 yards per carry and 26.1 points per game. This year, however, Pitt returns 8 starters from last year, headlined by strong safety Jordan Whitehead who earned 2nd Team All-ACC as a freshman last year. Aside from Whitehead, every returning player is solid but not elite; linebackers Mike Caprara and Matt Galambos are seniors that will need to step up lead this defense if it wants to keep up with the top of the ACC offenses. The panthers are also expected to start freshman Damar Hamlin at cornerback-if he could step in and be a solid contributor that will be a big difference maker for the Panthers defense.

BOTTOM LINE
While Pitt will benefit from having Narduzzi in his second year and the return of James Conner to the field, their schedule is too difficult to believe they will improve on an 8-5 record. The Panthers draw Penn State and Oklahoma State out of conference, and they have the misfortune of playing Clemson—at Clemson-- in a cross-division match up. Not to mention, they have to travel to North Carolina and Miami this year. Peterman should make improvements at quarterback and the running backs will be among the elite of the ACC, but with their schedule I see a ceiling of an 8-5 record once again.

Correspondence with Stephen Flinn

6. DUKE BLUE DEVILS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

For the past three years, David Cutcliffe and the Duke Blue Devils have overachieved by winning 10, 9, and 8 games, respectively. Prior to that streak, the Blue Devils were consistently at the bottom of the ACC, and just making a bowl game was a big accomplishment. Now, Cutcliffe has turned Duke into a legitimate ACC Coastal contender by maximizing the talent he has and pulling out close win after close win. While Duke has exceeded expectations the past few years, I expect the Blue Devils to take a step back as they lose key components of their secondary and draw a tougher cross conference schedule.

OFFENSE
At quarterback, Thomas Sirk was expected to start the season, but ruptured his Achilles in February, opening the door for Parker Boehme. Sirk started 12 games for the Blue Devils last year and completed 59% of his attempts while rushing for 803 yards; he was certainly a solid quarterback last year and if he can improve his deep balls he would be a much bigger threat to opposing defenses. Of course, all of this hinges on if he can come back from such a severe injury in about 6 and a half months. The skill players are fine but not outstanding; WR TJ Rahming is probably their best threat and he is only a sophomore. Shaun Wilson is an experienced running back that can make big plays, and rushed for 5 yards per carry last year—he will be a nice option to take the load off of Sirk this year. The offensive line is looking competent with RT Casey Blaser leading the pack. Blaser had a very strong outing last year and has the potential of earning an All-ACC nomination. Tanner Stone at RG is also a very sound lineman that is expected to have a nice year for the Blue Devils.

DEFENSE
Losing Jeremy Cash in the secondary will be a big hit for Duke as he was one of the premier players in the conference last year. Further, Duke has a new defensive line coach in Ben Albert, and with little talent to work with I expect the defensive line to be a major liability this year. At linebacker, Ben Humphreys, Tinashe Bere and Alonzo Saxton will all be above average players that, while they may not be elite, will hold their own and make plays around the field. Duke is strongest at cornerback; Devon Edwards and Breon Borders are both senior leaders and will be among the best corners in the Coastal and the entire conference. Last year Duke’s defense was impressive by only allowing 3.6 yards per carry—that number will go up this year given their line troubles, but I believe they will improve as the year goes on and this Duke defense will not force the offense to win games for them.

BOTTOM LINE
Across the board, Duke—on paper—is a slightly above average team. Of course, the same could have been said the past few years yet they were among the best in the Coastal. This year, however, I think they will fall back to 6 or 7 wins given the improvement in the division and the tougher schedule (i.e. the addition of Louisville instead of Boston College). Cutcliffe has done a tremendous job in Durham taking over a mess and producing extremely competitive teams, and this year they should be competitive once again. That said, I believe this is the year they return to the bottom of the Coastal and fight for a bid to a bowl game.

Correspondence with Patrick Cacchio, Blue Devil Nation

7. VIRGINIA CAVALIERS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

When Mike London was hired at UVA, I believed it was a good hire as he seemed to be an energetic coach with a penchant for getting recruits. While London had a successful year in 2011, the Cavaliers have struggled the past four years failing to surpass 5 wins. It certainly was time to end the London era, and bringing in Bronco Mendenhall was as good of a hire that they could possibly make. Mendenhall spent the past 11 years leading BYU, and he has yet to earn a losing record as a head coach. That streak will be put to the test this year as the Cavaliers are not exactly stocked with talent and have to deal with a tough division. While I have the utmost faith in Mendenhall turning around the Virginia program, it will be difficult to make progress in terms of wins this year.

OFFENSE
Offensively, the quarterback position is in question to start the season; returning starter and senior Matt Johns is currently battling Easter Carolina transfer Kurt Benkert for the starting spot. Johns has played in the majority of the games in his career in Charlottesville thus far, and he has shown he is a decent quarterback in the ACC. Benkert has looked strong in the spring and is more athletic than Johns—something Bronco Mendenhall values. Whichever quarterback wins the job will not be elite by any means, but both should be competent for the Cavaliers this year. In the backfield is Taquan Mizzell, who has shown he is a good runner but is excellent in the air; Mizzell hauled in 721 yards in the air and has amazing quickness in open field. If Mizzell is given opportunities, he has the ability to make huge plays for Virginia. The receivers and the offensive line are weak for the Cavaliers, and they both could be a liability this year. Virginia averaged 25.8 points per game last year, and given their lack of talent at the receiver and line positions it is unlikely that number will improve in 2016.

DEFENSE
The defense is in good hands with Bronco Mendenhall in town; Mendenhall has always fielded good defenses and with some elite talent sprinkled around the lineup, the Cavaliers should make strides this year. At defensive end, junior Andrew Brown has All-ACC potential this year—he was the Gatorade national player of the year coming out of high school and is expected to have a big impact in the trenches. Micah Kiser, the quarterback of the defense, returns this year after earning 1st team All-ACC last year. Kiser is a phenomenal leader for the Cavaliers and will need to perform at a similar level this year to ensure UVa has a strong product on defense. The Cavaliers’ most talented player is found in the secondary; free safety Quin Blanding is a tremendous player that has started every game the past two years and is fully expected to earn another 1st Team All-ACC selection this year as he has impressed all throughout the spring. With Brown, Kiser, and Blanding, the Cavaliers have big playmakers that should help bring the average of allowing 32.2 points per game down into the twenties.

BOTTOM LINE
It is going to be difficult to rise in the Coastal this year for the Cavs, as the rest of the conference is strong and well-coached. Unfortunately Mendenhall has inherited a roster that is, by and large, average. To make matters worse, Virginia draws Louisville as one of their cross-conference matchups. UVa is in a similar position as Syracuse; the team will improve across the board, but it’s going to take some time until those improvements turn into wins. Patience is key for Virginia, but for 2016 a last place finish in the Coastal is likely.

In correspondence with George Revercomb, @CavalierBlue