2016 Pac-12 North Division Preview

BRETT CIANCIA
August 1st, 2016

1. WASHINGTON HUSKIES

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

In last season’s UW preview, I wrote:

“Usually I put heavy stock in a talented coach’s 2nd season at a new school, but this year may be the exception to the rule due to a mass exodus of talent and an unusual amount of missed reps in the spring due to injuries to 8 potential starters. I look for his 3rd season (2016) to be that breakthrough”

Entering 2015, the UW defense had lost 4 defensive stars to the first 44 picks in the NFL Draft, and Petersen had an extremely young roster in his second season. After exceeding my expectations in the 2nd rebuilding year, I am calling for a division championship here in his third season.

Back in May, I went on the Bill King Show and declared Washington the biggest sleeper team in America and announced my prediction for them to win the North. Stanford and Oregon are a combined 48-2 against the other Pac-12 North teams this decade, but with reloading issues of their own, I am calling for a new team to emerge and steal the crown – the Huskies of Washington.

OFFENSE
As a senior at Folsom High School (CA), Jake Browning threw for 5,790 yards and 91 touchdowns; his 229 career passing touchdowns broke the national record set by Jimmy Clausen. These are video game numbers, people! Last season as a true freshman, he started 12 of 13 games and after some growing pains, emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in the conference. The passing attack seemed a bit handcuffed at times, and failed to stretch the field vertically. That problem will be fixed immediately with the return of speedster receiver John Ross III, who missed the 2015 season with a knee injury. Any doubts about Ross’ recovery were silenced when he ran a 4.25 40 in spring practice. This vertical dimension will make this offense that much more dynamic, and will open up holes for another freshman star in the backfield, Myles Gaskin. Like Browning, Gaskin burst onto the scene last year as a freshman, starting the final six games and accumulating 1,302 yards and 14 touchdowns. As if two freshman stars weren’t enough, Petersen experimented with two freshman tackles, Trey Adams and Kaleb McGary, who both thrived on the opportunity. Six of the ten linemen in the two-deep last season were underclassmen, and while they struggled at times in the pass game (34 sacks surrendered), the ground game was sufficient, and progress was noticeable as the season progressed. Four starters are back, and I expect the line to make a major step forward this fall. You tend to see significant progress from the first to second year starting, and it might be most notable along the line. Look for an improvement on last season’s 164 rushing yards per game (76th nationally) and 4.5 yards per carry.

As most of the line is set, and the sophomore stars in the backfield are all-conference talents, there aren’t many position battles on this side of the ball. Probably the biggest question is on the outsides, regarding who will complement Ross at receiver. Dante Pettis looks like the next best receiver, and the name may sound familiar as he is cousins with Austin Pettis, the all-time leading receiver at Boise State under Petersen. The third spot will be a battle between returning veteran Brayden Lenius and spring hero Chico McClatcher. I expect McClatcher to grow into the WR3 role as the season develops, making it hard to take him off the field. Despite losing Joshua Perkins at tight end, Darrell Daniels rates as our #2 TE in the Pac-12, and will be a mismatch over the middle of the field.

DEFENSE
They call themselves “Death Row” and certainly have backed up the moniker on the field. Even after losing 4 stars to the top 44 picks in the 2015 NFL Draft, this young bunch developed into the #1 defense in the Pac-12. Now, in defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowsi’s 3rd season, the unit almost returns completely intact. The secondary is the most talented in the conference, and ranks as our 1st unit in the nation. Budda Baker earned a “99 Overall” rating at safety, while Sidney Jones is just as intimidating at corner. They are a duo of all-conference locks. But what elevates this secondary to the nation’s elite, is that in addition to the Baker-Jones tandem, there are still multiple stars across the unit. Kevin King locks down the other corner opposite of Jones, while Darren Gardenhire is an impact player at the nickel spot. If an opposing coordinator chooses to avoid Jones’ half of the field, there really isn’t an easy solution, as there are no weaknesses.

To make a great secondary purely elite, it needs a fierce defensive line in front of it. For UW, this happens to be the team’s next best unit. Elijah Qualls is the star of the front, an anchor at nose tackle who earned 4.5 sacks and 2 fumble recoveries. A pair of promising sophomores flank Qualls, but even with their youth, this line looks like the second-best in the league behind Utah’s juggernaut front. Perhaps the only question mark on the defense is at outside backer, as starters Travis Feeney and Cory Littleton must be replaced. The good news is that the inside backer tandem returns; Azeem Victor led the team in tackles (95), while Keishawn Bierria can cover a ton of ground – a key attribute in the pass-heavy Pac-12. 8 starters are back, and just 2 of them are seniors. This young bunch went through its “rebuilding year” while becoming the league’s strongest. I expect an even more feared unit here in 2016, and will certainly live up to the self-proclaimed title as “Death Row.”

OUTLOOK
Stanford or Oregon? Oregon or Stanford? Having dealt with the annual question atop the Pac-12 North for the past 4 seasons makes this decision seem even more bold. I am calling for Washington to win the North Division. I knew 2016 could be special for Petersen in his 3rd season here, but given how far ahead of schedule they were in year two, the sky is the limit this fall. The schedule sets up favorably, as they host Stanford early in the season – as the Cardinal come off of an opening gauntlet of Kansas State, USC, and UCLA. Washington hosts South favorite USC (a team they beat last season in LA), and avoid the other contender UCLA. Look for 10+ wins, a division title, and a return to national prominence unseen here since the early 1990s.

2. STANFORD CARDINAL

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Before his Super Bowl run with the 49ers and before becoming a walking reality show, Jim Harbaugh led one of the more impressive program turnarounds in college football. In 2007, he inherited a 1-11 Stanford team that was coming off of 5 straight losing seasons, but ended up pulling the largest Vegas upset ever (41-point underdogs @ #1 USC) and brought the team to a Fiesta Bowl in 2010. So as David Shaw took over and maintained that high level of success with 3 straight double-digit win seasons, the credit was deservedly shared. 2014 saw a minor regression to 8-5, and the usual chirps were flying about how Stanford is back to mediocrity. But 2015’s 12-2 conference championship team quieted any and all critics. They finished just outside of the College Football Playoff, and added yet another consistent elite season to the Shaw resume, in the process proving that 2014 was the outlier, not the return to the pre-Harbaugh dark ages.

OFFENSE
I can still hear the “Heisman!” Guy screaming from the Rose Bowl postgame interview. This will go down as an unthinkable Heisman snub, as Christian McCaffrey shattered Barry Sanders’ yardage record, a feat that has been considered untouchable for decades. While Derrick Henry won the award behind the “workhorse” mantra, keep in mind that McCaffrey only rushed for 139 yards less than Henry –- yet added an additional 1700 all-purpose yardage! Such a historic season will be tough to match, but is even more of a stretch when you factor in some of the roster turnover alongside him.

Keller Chryst and Ryan Burns are battling for the starting quarterback spot after 4-year starter Kevin Hogan’s departure (yes, the Hogan era is finally over after what seems like a decade). Usually in a competition like this the two guys have contrasting style, something different about their skill sets or experience level, or some basic differentiator. That is not the case here, as Chryst and Burns are the exact same mold of quarterback. Both are 6’5” 230, have minimal experience, and offer a dose of mobility. This isn’t Oregon mobility, but Stanford mobility. Think of how Hogan and even his predecessor Andrew Luck, with their large frames were able to extend plays in the pocket, or even tuck the ball and gain those 8-12 crucial yards. That is what these two also bring to the table. Shaw will not name a starter until far into fall camp, and may even use them both in September until one emerges; this process ended up working in 2012 for Hogan.

Additional changeover is occurring up front on the offensive line, the unit that simply makes Stanford who they are as a program (3 of last 4 Morris Trophy winners for best West Coast Lineman). The left side is gone to the NFL (Garnett & Murphy) along with Shuler at center. Johnny Caspers and Casey Tucker are strongpoints and returning starters on the right side, while David Bright is primed for the left tackle spot. I talked with Stanford analyst Andy Drukarev (@StanfordRivals) and he predicts there may be some shuffling for the 5th spot, as AJ Hall may unseat former blue-chipper Brandon Fanaika, which would move Bright into the guard spot. While those losses on the left may seem insurmountable, what Stanford has succeeded with in player development is the “Jumbo” package where they bring in 1 or 2 additional linemen. These 5-10 snaps per game for younger guys adds up and starts to pay dividends when they eventually become full-time starters. The three new starters and their overall ability to gel as a unit will help define this team’s ceiling.

Even with Devin Cajuste’s departure, this WR group will be stronger than last year, and looks like one of the conference’s best. All of the attention is on returning starters Michael Rector and catch-of-the-year Francis Owusu, but I feel that the top receiver on the team is Trent Irwin. This former 5-star is the best route runner, has the best hands, and is poised for a breakout season. Stanford has been considered “Tight End U” of late, and that trend continues with Dalton Schultz, who is their best “Y” tight end in a while – meaning he can block in addition to creating mismatch problems across the middle of the field.

DEFENSE
Against their own high standards, the 2015 defense took a step back in a few metrics including pass defense (71st nationally) and yards per carry (4.32 – 66th nationally). And it seems like with Stanford more than any other program, people really underestimate their ability to “reload” and not “rebuild.” Remember, over the last 5 classes, Stanford has recruited towards the top of the Pac-12, earning the 4th best weighted average. So while both star defensive ends depart, look for Harrison Phillips to fill in after his 2015 season-ending injury, and former 4-star Jordan Watkins to lead the race for the other end spot. In the middle is the leader of the defense, the big hoss Solomon Thomas (10.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks in 2015) who is earning “best in school history” discussion. He rates as a 97 overall and we view him as a lock for 1st team All-Pac12.

Another major loss is Blake Martinez, the star backer who led the team in tackles with more than double the 2nd tackler. Without him flying around the field, look for Kevin Palma to hold down the middle, while Peter Kalambayi will be a solid starter on the outside. Quenton Meeks had 3 INT’s last season and looks like a perfect fit for the nickel spot, with Alijah Holder and Terrence Alexander at the corners. Zach Hoffpauir returns from his stint with the Pittsburgh Pirates farm system, but despite his experience, looks like the 3rd safety behind returning starter Dallas Lloyd and Justin Reid – Eric’s brother. Shaw has proven his ability to reload and churn out strong, or at least above average, defenses, and this year looks no different. But just how strong can determine the difference between 8 and 11 wins.

OUTLOOK
In terms of true talent and coaching, the North Division is a dead heat between the established Stanford, and the upstart Washington. But ultimately the quarterback uncertainty, loss of star power on both lines, and the extremely front-loaded schedule for this inexperienced team make the difference. Those three reasons make up the slight difference between predicting Stanford to defend the North or not.

The first 6 games might just be the hardest opening stretch in America, and with such uncertainties I cannot confidently predict Stanford to win these season-defining and division-clinching games. All that said, they are a true top 15 team with a high ceiling behind the most electrifying player that college football has seen in a decade… “HEISMAN!” … “HEISMAN!”

3. OREGON DUCKS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Just after Signing Day, we conducted a survey of 100 FBS-level recruits and a staggering 60 voted Oregon’s uniforms as the best in college football. To put that landslide in context, over in the “worst uniform” category, no team had more than 9 votes. And before you shake this off as irrelevant data, 72% admitted that “uniforms have a great impact on my perception of a team” and 33% stated that “uniforms would be a factor in my decision process.” Oregon was the first program to attack this niche, and their attention-grabbing uniforms are a major ingredient to the program’s resurgence since the Bellotti era.

USC has the tradition and the trophy case, UCLA has the palm trees, Stanford and Cal have the elite academics – Oregon needed an equalizer and found its niche through uniforms, facilities, and high-paced style of play. They are the winningest program in the Pac-12 since 2000, and it is hard to believe they haven’t cashed in for the ultimate prize of the crystal football trophy. In 2010, the Ducks were tied with Heisman winner Cam Newton’s Auburn team until the bizarre Michael Dyer play where somehow his knee never grazed the turf. Then 4 seasons later, this time with a Heisman quarterback of their own, UO was outclassed by a 3rd string quarterback as the Buckeyes steamrolled to the first Playoff title. While Bellotti built it, Chip Kelly elevated it, Mark Helfrich must maintain the high success and prove that last year’s 4-loss campaign was an exception and not the new rule.

OFFENSE
Former quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator (and national champion QB) Scott Frost took the head job at UCF, and the Ducks are going back for seconds to the FCS Big Sky Conference in search of another transfer quarterback. Of course, Eastern Washington’s Vernon Adams was extremely accurate here last season (65%, 26 TD – 6 INT) and succeeded with the transition when he wasn’t banged up. Now Montana State QB Dakota Prukop will take his graduate season in Eugene, and the true dual-threat may just be a better fit in the Oregon system. Despite his creativity and elusiveness in the pocket, Adams was pass-first; Prukop presents more of a run threat, especially in the downhill rushing attack and the zone read. Don’t count out his arm strength either; in the spring game, with a flat-footed flick of the wrist he chucked the ball 50-yards. Despite several dropped balls, Prukop certainly looked the part. It looks like Oregon patched up the leak for another season, but questions arise about quarterback development here if they are poaching the FCS level two years in a row.

Prukop will be distributing the ball to one of the best skill units in America. Charles Nelson is back on offense and looked like his favorite target in the spring game. Nelson is an ace in the return game, can line up anywhere on the field, and is so elusive in open space. A duo of more traditional receivers Darren Carrington and Dwayne Stanford return; so too does speedster Devon Allen, who won NCAA titles in the 110m hurdles and 60m indoor hurdles. As if they needed more targets, Pharoah Brown returns after missing last season due to injury, and provides all-conference caliber from the tight end spot. The staff says they will use more double tight end sets, but with this deep stable of receivers, I’ll believe it when I see it. Star running back Royce Freeman deserves to be in the same discussion as McCaffrey, Cook, and Fournette, and fittingly earned a 98 overall rating. He is a proven workhorse, but with several capable backs behind him, he doesn’t need to be.

Questions abound up front, as just two starters return, and multi-year starter Tyler Johnstone must be replaced. Tyrell Crosby is the strongest, and will move over to that left tackle spot, while Cameron Hunt returns at right guard. Freshman Jake Hanson will start at center, and while discussing the offensive line, Matt Prehm of 247 Sports (@Prehmmr247) called him the next Oregon NFL lineman. Half of the two-deep are freshmen, which is a very rare feat in itself. In rebuild mode, this looks like a middle-of-the-pack offensive line, and ranks 7th in our Pac-12 unit ranks.

DEFENSE
Defense wins championships, even in the pinball-scoring Pac-12. Last season, the Oregon defense hit rock bottom, allowing 37.5 points per game (116th nationally), 307 yards passing per game (126th), and 6 yards per play (98th). Former coordinator Don Pellum has been reassigned to linebackers, while former Michigan head coach Brady Hoke was brought in to lead the defense. Hoke is throwing out Oregon’s 3-4, two-gap defensive scheme in favor of his 4-3 style. He also brought in a massive playbook that players mentioned was heavier than their course textbooks. While the hire and scheme shift may eventually pay merits, such a dense new playbook could cause the defense to do too much ‘thinking’ and not enough ‘playing’ – at least until they know the scheme inside-and-out. Just how long the adjustment will take could determine if these terrible stats are fixed this season or not.

It doesn’t help that there is extreme uncertainty in the front seven, as just one starter returns in DT Henry Mondeaux. While he is a proven force, the only other known quantity is Torrodney Prevot, who put on some muscle strength in his move from LB to DE. From there, the other 5 spots are wide open and may not be decided until the end of fall camp. Meanwhile, the secondary returns 3 of 4 starters with a breakout freshman taking the other corner spot. This is one of those cases where you wonder if the “returning starter” angle holds any merit, as the secondary was torched on a weekly basis. I will say the loss of pass rusher Deforest Buckner is actually a worse loss to the secondary, as now they must be holding coverage that much longer. Arrion Springs is the leader of the group, Tyree Robinson has shown versatility at both positions, while senior Reggie Daniels hopes to turn around somewhat of a personal regression at safety. My instant reaction is to say that it cannot get worse on this side of the ball. But at a closer look, with extreme youth and a scheme shift that is bringing along a Harry Potter sized playbook, it may be tough to make significant improvements.

OUTLOOK
When Kelly handed over the keys to Helfrich, he also gave him a Heisman quarterback. Some detractors note that Helfrich simply hid behind Mariota, and was exposed without him last season. First off, 3 of the 4 losses were by a score or less, and Adams was banged up at times throughout the season. While the attention will be placed on Prukop, the real key to Oregon’s season is their development on both lines, and how quickly Hoke can implement his 4-3 system to make this defense viable again.

We will learn a lot in the Week 3 trip to Nebraska, and then even more in October as the Pac-12 gauntlet heats up. Oregon draws South favorite USC but also gets auto-win Colorado. The North is as deep as it’s ever been, and while most years this roster would look like a 1st or 2nd place team, the uncertainties in the trenches and defensive shift place Oregon in the 3 spot.

4. WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Washington State started the 2015 season with a loss to FCS Portland State and it was barely national news; no one even batted an eye. There was almost a nonchalant acceptance of the upset. From that opening Saturday, it would have been unthinkable that this Coug team would rattle off nine wins for its most successful season since 2003 – and only winning season over that span. Mike Leach’s air raid offense has always been potent, but the soft defense had been holding them back. What turned the fortune was an extremely opportunistic defense, and clutch late-game heroics by quarterback Luke Falk and his deep stable of playmaking receivers. The 2015 season will be a tough act to follow, but excitement abounds as this is the first time in over a decade that Wazzu has a legit case for preseason top 25 hype.

OFFENSE
You hear coaches and coordinators always using the buzz words of “balanced” and “multiple” in regards to offensive style. Conversely, if you are looking for a definition of one-dimensional offense, this is the best example yet. Washington State led the nation in passing offense (389, 1st) yet finished dead last in rushing offense (80, 128th). However, beyond the surface, the 5.92 yards per play (34th) shows overall offensive efficiency despite the terrible 3.56 yards per carry (115th). While traditional football strategists use the run to open up the pass game, Leach uses short passes to set up the more vertical routes. The short/quick pass game is his equivalent to a rushing attack. And with this stable of receivers and conference-leading quarterback – can you blame The Pirate?

Luke Falk earns a 96 overall rating, as he checks in as our best Pac-12 quarterback. In his first season starting, Falk threw for a nation-leading 4566 yards with a 38-8 TD to INT ratio. Last summer, Leach called him the calmest player he’s ever coached, and that was before leading three last-second, game-winning drives (Rutgers, UCLA, Oregon). Look for more video game numbers again this season, as several key receivers are back including Gabe Marks, who could have easily gone pro early. Marks was a Biletnikoff semifinalist and led the unit with 1192 yards and 15 touchdowns. In the Leach offense, receivers are designated as either inside or outside receivers. Marks is an outside receiver, and will be flanked by inside receiver River Cracraft – a deadly duo when on the same half of the field. The other outside guy will be Tavares Martin who is also the team’s fastest. The other inside spot is wide open, and Leach likes to rotate, so snaps will be split by Robert Lewis, Kyle Sweet, and freshman Isaiah Johnson. While 4 running backs are capable, I expect a duo of Gerard Wicks and James Williams. Wicks is the big physical guy, and while freshman Williams can also run you over, he showed in the spring game that he can jump over you too! Williams looks like a complete back, and has been turning heads in practice as the scout team hero ever since he set foot on campus.

While the wide receivers and backfield are by far the strongpoints of this roster, the offensive line is one of more concern. Three starters do return, but Joe Dahl was drafted and the whole left side needs to be replaced. I talked with Washington State analyst Matt Zimmer (@COUGFANcom) regarding the line situation, and he noted that Eduardo Middleton (right tackle) is the top lineman, while center Riley Sorenson has a strong football IQ. They rate as our top two lineman of the unit, and although he is unproven, it is hard to ignore the physical frame on Cody O’Connell (6’8”, 350+ pounds). More so than other teams, WSU can afford to have a weaker line because the release time on most throws is much quicker than in a traditional, pro-style offense. Often times, Falk will get the snap and immediately fire the ball to the sidelines on smoke routes or screens. The offense will still be extremely unbalanced, but it would not surprise me if they moved out of the 128th in rushing offense for the first time since 2013.

DEFENSE
The reason the 2015 team broke the 11-year non-winning season streak was due to the defensive turnaround by young coordinator Alex Grinch. He brought high energy and a breath of fresh air, all the while cutting the points allowed per game down from 39 to 28 in his first season. One of the keys to the game is turnovers, and he was able to triple the output from 8 to 24. Giving Falk an additional two possessions per game is an incredible advantage. However, the question is whether such a turnover surge can be repeated, especially when there is a dose of luck involved. The 3-4 front returns 2 starters – both are star players in anchor Robert Barber and Hercules Mata’afa who demonstrated all-conference talent towards the end of last season. The other end spot is up for grabs as JUCO-transfer Henry McBroom filled in during spring ball for injured Daniel Ekuale. The linebackers are wide open and an area of concern, besides family legacy Peyton Pelluer who is the clear leader of the entire defense.

The pass defense was statistically the best unit last season, and 4 starters are back (bolded in the graphic). The only vacancy is at safety where freshman Jalen Thompson is challenging Charleston White, the veteran who has played nickel, corner, and has now transitioned to safety. There is usually a boost in a new coach or coordinator’s second season, and while the defense may be more talented, can it be as lucky/turnover-happy?

OUTLOOK
While 2015 was a special turning point for the program, and this level excitement has been missing since the early 2000s, it will be a tough act to follow. The offense will be every bit as strong, and will probably draw near the 40 point-per-game milestone. But the level of roster depth and talent on the defensive side of the ball is worrisome. Washington State has recruited towards the bottom of the conference, ranking 11th of 12 in our weighted average. The three last-second wins, as well as an insane improvement in forced turnovers seem like temporary boosts that could easily reverse in 2016. It doesn’t help that the North is the strongest it’s ever been. That said, I feel Washington State is on the fringe of the top 25. Even if they open 0-3 in the league, another 8-4 regular season is very possible.

5. CALIFORNIA BEARS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Long before Mel Kiper and Todd McShay listed Jared Goff as the projected #1 QB in the 2016 NFL Draft, I labeled him as the “best quarterback you haven’t heard of yet.” This was coming off of a strong sophomore campaign that was overshadowed by the other star quarterbacks in this pass-heavy league. He made yet another stride in his third season starting, and it looked as if head coach Sonny Dykes’ plan was coming to fruition. Dykes had been stressing that the third year (2015) would be the major turnaround year for a Cal program that had become stale under Jeff Tedford, and bottomed out with 3-9 and 1-11 seasons in 2012 and 2013, respectively.

For the plan to work, the defense needed drastic improvements. While the unit did shave off 10 points per game from the previous season, it only brought the average down to 30.7 per game (89th nationally). After a 5-0 start, the turnover bug hit the offense (5 INT vs. Utah), and then the defense collapsed on several occasions. When the defense was able to hold its ground and force some turnovers, Goff was given extra possessions and a comfortable cushion. But when they couldn’t slow their opponent, Goff was forcing mistakes and a few losses spiraled out of control. The 8-5 year may not stand out nationally, but it is important to remember the context of the program Dykes inherited in 2013.

OFFENSE
This may just be the biggest transition I’ve seen an offensive unit go through in a single offseason. Goff and his 12,195 yards and 96 touchdowns and his top SIX receivers are all gone. Two starting linemen depart, but the whole line is starting from scratch thanks to a change in offensive coordinator, as Jake Spivital comes in from Texas A&M to become the 3rd youngest OC in the Power 5. In his young career, Spivital has already coached the likes of Johnny Manziel, Geno Smith, Case Keenum, and Brandon Weedon. And while it looked like he would be coaching a first-time starter in his Cal debut, a late transfer changed the face of the offense. Signing Day is the first Wednesday in February, but Cal landed two of the biggest “commits” in May. Former Texas Tech starting quarterback Davis Webb appeared to be heading to Colorado, but changed course and joins the Bears as a graduate transfer. Meanwhile, 5-star WR Demetris Robertson shocked many by signing with Cal after extending his decision out three months. Both are huge additions, and will help tremendously in this textbook “transition” season.

In the spring game, it appeared to be a two-horse race between Chase Forrest and Ross Bowers, but Webb will be the clear starter upon his arrival on campus. Webb is an above average QB, and especially thrives in the spread out, air raid attack. His former school, Texas Tech, popularized the 4 and 5 wide set attack with Mike Leach, and luckily for both parties, Sonny Dykes runs the same system. Often times, the routes are variable and may remind some viewers of their time on the recess schoolyard: “just go get open!” Webb’s experience will help this young, but talented crop of receivers grow. Even as his top 6 depart, Dykes claims that this new bunch has potential to be the best he’s ever coached. Early enrollee Melquise Stovall was very impressive in the spring game, and on one of his touchdowns, a catch and run that demonstrated elite elusiveness, I couldn’t help but draw Desean Jackson comparisons. Robertson should move into the #2 WR spot to create a one-two punch that Bears fans will see for at least 3 years here. After that, Chad Hansen is a safe bet as the third WR, but in this system be prepared for a mix of several young guys. In the backfield behind Webb will be Tre Watson, but I expect a share of carries between him, Vic Enwere, and Khalfani Muhammed, who each rushed for over 500 yards in 2015.

As mentioned, the change at offensive coordinator means this line must learn a new system, new audibles, and will be kick-sliding much more. Last year it was mostly 5-man protection with quick pass setting, but now expect a TE or H-back for 6 or 7 guys in protection. The left side is veteran with returning starters LT Aaron Cochran and LG Chris Borrayo. Look for JUCO-transfer Dwayne Wallace to take over the RG spot, while Spivital’s guy from A&M Jeremiah Stuckey should start at center. Overall, this unit looks like a middle-of-the-pack line, and I do not expect the rushing efficiency to improve much (4.53 yards per carry, 54th nationally).

DEFENSE
While there was marked improvement and the unit was opportunistic at times, this side of the ball was the reason Cal went 8-5, and not 10-3. Art Kaufman has done a decent job fixing this disaster (45.9 ppg allowed in 2013), but the unexpected loss of its two best returning starters will significantly hurt the unit in 2016. Hardy Nickerson, the captain MLB, transferred to Illinois as his dad was named the defensive coordinator of Lovie Smith’s new staff. Further, star safety Damariay Drew suffered a season-ending injury in spring. Two major blows in talent and leadership to an already thin unit.

James Looney is the anchor up front, and the new leader of the defense. He will need some guys to step up alongside him, as the defense allowed 210 rushing yards per game (106th) and 4.8 yards per carry (95th). It looks like Tony Mekari will get the nod next to Looney, with a rotation of Marcus Manley and transfer Rusty Beckett on tap. With Kragen and Barr departing, they lose experience and 13 sacks up front. The loss of Nickerson leaves a crater in the middle level, but Raymond Davison will attempt to fill the void, and will be flanked by Hamilton Anoa’l and DeVante Downs.

The secondary’s development will be a huge piece in how this Cal season turns out. Darius Allensworth is a stud at corner, and is the only known commodity. From there, Drew’s injury opens up the safety spots. I talked to Cal analyst Ryan Gorcey (@RGBearTerritory) and he is very high on Evan Rambo to become a force and lock down a starting role. The other safety spot will be between Griffin Piatt, Khari Vanderbilt, and Luke Rubenzer, the former QB who looked a bit rusty on this side of the ball but also showed physicality and potential in the spring game. Despite the statistical improvement trend on defense under Kaufman, the loss of its two star players lowers my expectation for the unit, and a small regression is possible.

OUTLOOK
By definition, this is as close to a rebuilding season as I have ever seen. Yes, Davis Webb will help smooth things over on offense, but it’s an entire new crop of receivers in a spread-air attack, along with a new offensive coordinator, new line schemes, and 7 new defensive starters. Cal has recruited in the middle tier of the Pac-12, averaging 7th of 12 over the past 5 classes. And given this new surge from the Washington schools, I view Cal as a safe bet for 5th place in the North – a division that is as deep as it’s ever been.

Cal kicks off the 2016 season a week early, as they face Hawaii in Australia. After that, a strong San Diego State team cannot be overlooked, and it is worth noting that in the crossover rotation, Cal misses 6th place Colorado but hits both Los Angeles teams who are the South Division frontrunners. Webb gives Cal a puncher’s chance in any Pac-12 shootout, but the defense and overall youth are too much of a liability to guarantee a bowl bid.

6. OREGON STATE BEAVERS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

The annual coaching carousel is always entertaining, but rarely are all angles of a single transition as stunning as what we saw at Oregon State following the 2014 season. Mike Riley is as OSU as it gets, and seemed far from the coaching free agency – until Nebraska came knocking. The fact that the Huskers were even shopping for a new head coach after a 7-year string of 9 & 10 win seasons is a story for another time. So as Mike Riley left the Pacific Northwest, Gary Andersen returned to it. After culminating his 4-year Utah State program turnaround with an 11-2 season, he took the opening at Wisconsin, but in another coaching shocker, he voluntarily left the winningest program in the Big Ten West for a depleted roster with aging facilities in a conference where pretty much every team appears to be surging upward.

He did it at Utah State, but an even more challenging rebuilding project is underway in Corvallis. The 2-10 (0-9) season last year ranks right up there with 2013 Purdue and 2015 Kansas as one of the worst statistical seasons in recent memory. System overhauls on both sides of the ball didn’t help. A 3-way quarterback circus between contenders who combined for ZERO collegiate attempts didn’t help either. But the resurgence of the Washington teams and the Jared Goff led Cal team made any attempt at a quick fix futile.

OFFENSE
Andersen went back to his old stomping grounds in Galveston, Utah to find his 2016 starting quarterback; Darell Garretson brings mobility along with nice touch on his deep balls. He also brings leadership, and has remarkably been voted captain by his peers without even playing a live snap yet. He’s a natural for Andersen’s spread system and demonstrated ability to effectively run the zone read in the spring game. Garretson also tossed 2 touchdowns to Jordan Villamin who I have rated as the top WR on the roster despite trailing Victor Bolden in the box score last season. Villamin’s 6’5” frame creates red zone mismatches and based off of the spring game, he appears to be Garretson’s favorite target. Bolden also headlines a strong WR unit, which in my opinion is the strongest unit on the roster. Former QB Seth Collins actually returned to OSU after a brief thought of transferring out, and he has accepted his new role in the slot. Collins got some experience there in the Oregon game, and could grow into a do-it-all type player in the same mold as former-QB’s Cain Kolter and Braxton Miller.

Behind Garretson is a dynamic duo of backs in Ryan Nall and Paul Lucas. Nall is the more prototypical every-down back who can truck defenders AND out-run them, as shown in the Civil War on his 66-yard TD. As a change of pace factor, Paul Lucas can line up anywhere and showed great elusiveness in the spring game on several jet sweeps, reverses, and end arounds. He seems to thrive in the same types of plays that made Jacquizz Rodgers a household name back in the late 2000s. And while Storm Woods departs as the first Beaver since Rodgers to earn 2000+ rushing yards and 1000+ receiving yards, I think the Nall-Lucas combo will be just fine. Up front, the line returns 4 guys with significant starting experience, led by captain Sean Harlow at LT. Converted tight end Dustin Stanton needs some improvement, and look for a position battle at center to be won by Yanni Demogerontas who led at the end of spring ball.

I expect significant progress on this side of the ball, thanks to an established starting quarterback surrounded by a solid cast of skill players. It is safe to say that the embarrassing 19 points per game (115th) and the 159 pass yards per game (116th) are in the rearview mirror.

DEFENSE
Kevin Clune steps in at defensive coordinator after Kalani Sitake took the head job at BYU, and brings with him yet another system overhaul – this time from the 4-3 to the 3-4. But hold on Beaver fans, Clune was able to make this 4-3 to 3-4 change twice before and even cut down Hawaii’s points per game allowed from 39 to 26 in just his opening season alone. That type of improvement is a bit more far-fetched in this situation, given the departure of leaders of each level of the defense, and the complete unknown of the front seven. There was an influx of youth up front, and several position battles are unsettled heading into fall camp. Baker Pritchard and JUCO-transfer Phillip Napoleon look like bright spots on the ends, while Caleb Saulo is the clear leader of the linebacker core. The secondary is certainly the strength of the defense as Tristan Decoud and Dwayne Williams form a solid corner duo. Williams gained a noteworthy amount of praise from the coaching staff regarding his athleticism, ball instincts, and desire to compete everyday in practice. As you can see to the left in the 2015 stat box, it will be tough to get any worse on defense. But it might be even harder to significantly improve this fall.

OUTLOOK
In year 2 of the post-Riley rebuild, there are some rays of sunshine peeking through the dark 2-10 clouds. The established systems on both sides of the ball give the team an identity to build around, while a veteran quarterback can help weather the storm of transition. But given the recent surge in the conference (especially within the North Division), simply put, Oregon State needs to recruit better. One step in the right direction is the state-of-the-art “Victory Through Valley” project that is underway – 42 million dollars well spent on bringing OSU’s aging facilities more up to par with their counterparts.

Schedule-wise, making a bowl would be a near-miracle, and another 2 or 3 win season looks more likely. Minnesota and Boise State are both tough games in the non-conference, while the best shot at a conference win is unfortunately a road contest at Colorado. Playing Cal in Week 5 is more manageable than playing them in Week 13, due to their incredibly young/new offense that may not be up to full-speed yet.