2016 SEC Western Division Preview
MIKE NOWOSWIAT
August 1st, 2016

   1.  ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

Playoff Pick
Every championship team needs a bit of luck to complement the requisite talent, discipline, and chemistry common among championship-caliber teams.  The Crimson Tide defense took a step back in 2014, falling out of the top 10 in total defense for the first time since 2007, but—make no mistake—Alabama was still a championship-caliber program in it’s title-less 2013 and 2014 seasons.  Some questioned if Alabama was on the decline, especially with only 10 returning starters heading into 2015.  However, the ball bounced Auburn’s and Ohio State’s way in 2013 and 2014, respectively.  I confidently picked the Tide to finish first in the SEC West, and win the SEC Title despite the criticism. And unless I am given tangible evidence of Alabama slipping on either the recruiting trail or the field, this will continue to be one of the easiest picks in College Football.

OFFENSE
To a lesser degree, Alabama has faced the same skepticism every time it needs to replace its quarterback, despite averaging 32-39 points per game every year since 2009.  This offense has always been built around its strong running game and offensive line, albeit Lane Kiffin has put more emphasis on the passing game.  The new QB’s supporting cast should be as good as it has been since 2012, led by a particularly good foursome of receivers in Calvin Ridley, ArDarius Stewart, Robert Foster, and TE OJ Howard.  Howard’s huge national championship game in which he recorded 208 yards and two touchdowns could have been the turning point in his career after being labeled a bust. In actuality, he probably was underutilized rather than failing to produce.  Finally, this Crimson Tide O-line has the potential to be the best group we have seen since the legendary 2012 unit that steam-rolled Notre Dame in the BCS Championship Game.  It will be tested in game one as USC’s front seven features a “who’s who?” of signing day stars.  Alphonse Taylor showed up to camp overweight and also has off-the-field issues to deal with.  The Crimson Tide will need him to play up to his high ceiling.

DEFENSE
Defensively, Alabama appears to be as talented as ever.  Nick Saban’s group has missed two components since its back-to-back championships: elite secondary play and pass-rush ability.  While last year’s defense featured one of the strongest front seven’s we have ever seen (2.43 ypc), those two elements were still missing, especially early in the season.  By the end of the season, the pass-rush was in full force, led by Jonathan Allen and Tim Williams.  Williams, in particular, emerged in the second half of the season, recording 7 sacks in his final 7 games.  The duo finished with 22.5 combined sacks and both return to provide a proven, reliable pass rush all season long.  This year, Williams has bulked up to be an every-down linebacker.  And given that Da’Shawn Hand, the better pass rusher, is Jarran Reed’s replacement in the starting lineup, this Alabama defense will not allow QBs any time to throw.  On the back end, ultra-talented corners Minkah Fitzpatrick and Marlon Humphrey gained valuable experience as freshmen last year.  From week seven until the national championship, the Alabama defense did not allow an opposing QB to throw multiple touchdowns.  Humphrey, who redshirted in 2014, could be the top cornerback selected in next year’s draft should he choose to leave early.  Once again, this will be a dominant defense.

OUTLOOK
The Crimson Tide have made it a tradition to play in a national showcase game to begin the season, but this year will be different than most.  USC is our prediction to win the strong PAC 12 and is one of the few teams that can match Alabama’s talent, particularly in the trenches.  And after a very close game last year, Alabama also needs to travel to Knoxville to play Tennessee in what could be the most hostile environment of the season.  Finally, it is LSU’s year to host Alabama, and the Tigers will be the best they have been since 2011—we could be looking at another "game of the century" on November 5th.  Also factoring in the SEC Title Game, this gauntlet of a schedule will be a greater obstacle to overcome than all other National Title contenders.  Still, this pick is a no-brainer for me, which is a testament to Alabama’s greatness—Alabama will win the SEC and make another Playoff appearance.

Correspondence with Joshua Chatham, RollBamaRoll.com

2. LSU Tigers

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner
The Tigers have not been contenders for quite some time (by LSU standards), and this will be another make-or-break year for Les Miles, who was on the hot seat all of last year.  The defense struggled mightily last year, but former Wisconsin defensive coordinator Dave Aranda assumes the same position this year after Auburn hired Kevin Steele.  With a loaded roster and a top-notch coaching staff, Les Miles will have nobody to point at but himself if the Tigers fail to contend for the SEC Championship this year.


OFFENSE
Leonard Fournette is of course the headliner on offense.  The closest thing to Adrian Peterson at the college level since Peterson left Oklahoma, Fournette will once again be the focal point on offense.  However, as we saw against Alabama last year, a one-dimensional offense is not going to cut it in this division.  QB Brandon Harris, a once highly-touted recruit, did not make the jump we expected from his freshman to sophomore seasons.  Harris showed inconsistent accuracy, finishing the season with a 53.6% completion percentage and a 2.17 TD:INT ratio.  Travin Dural has played at an extremely high level each of the past two years, and Malachi Dupre broke out last year.  The duo form one of the best in the nation and there is a lot of talent behind them.  Like Miles, Harris’ supporting cast is as good as ever, and if the offense fails to produce, he will be judged first.

DEFENSE
The defense sputtered in its first year without defensive coordinator John Chavis.  Opponents scored 24.3 points per game, which was the highest average allowed by an LSU team since the 1998 team allowed 25.4 ppg.  However, the DL returns Lewis Neal, Davon Godchaux, and Christian LaCouture, along with edge rusher Arden Key, who was very productive as a true freshman, earning Freshman All-American honors. A name that could come up often in the future is Devin White, a true freshman this year who, while he is not a projected starter, has impressed throughout the offseason and could see some meaningful time at linebacker. LSU has been known for its defensive backs since Nick Saban coached in Baton Rouge, and the 2011 SEC Champions had perhaps the best secondary ever.  Since they have moved on to the NFL, the secondary has lacked its usual bite.  This year should be different.  With potential All-Americans Tre’Davious White and Jamal Adams leading the way, the depth chart is littered with blue chip recruits such as Kevin Toliver, Ed Paris, Donte Jackson, Savion Smith, and Eric Monroe. 

OUTLOOK
Since Nick Saban has arrived in Tuscaloosa, the Tigers have taken a back seat to the Crimson Tide despite great success of their own.  This was validated by the restlessness of the fan base and the rumors of Les Miles’ burning hot seat.  Even at their best in 2011, LSU was eventually topped by the Crimson Tide.  The hierarchy is so well-defined, that I would be crazy to pick against the Tide in what otherwise seems to be two evenly-matched, elite teams.  However, Leonard Fournette is a true X-factor and anything can happen as long as he stays healthy.

Correspondence with Ross Dellenger, The Advocate

3. Ole Miss Rebels

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner
One of the most polarizing teams in college football, especially after Laremy Tunsil admitted to receiving money, Ole Miss has improved its talent and prestige under Hugh Freeze—that much is not up for debate.  The five-star recruits who gave this program momentum in 2013—Tunsil, Robert Nkemdiche, and Laquon Treadwell—were all first round draft picks in this year’s NFL Draft.  And while Freeze and many players remain, it feels like a new era has begun without those superstars.  The foundation has been built, and then some, over the past three years, but now Ole Miss fans hope the program can continue its upward trajectory under a new crop of five-star recruits, headlined by Shea Patterson and Greg Little.


​OFFENSE
Greg Little figures to start in Tunsil’s place to help protect Chad Kelly during his senior season.  Kelly, who, at one point, was more polarizing than the entire Rebel program, was able to harness his potential under Hugh Freeze’s mentorship, and should keep Patterson off the field during his true freshman season.  Kelly is the reason why this team continues to remain highly ranked despite so many key losses.  And while the receiving corps loses its alpha in Treadwell, the group remains very talented and deep, led by the best tight end in the country, Evan Engram.  Engram is a matchup nightmare for defenses and should greatly improve upon his two touchdowns as he fills in for Treadwell’s role as the go-to red zone target.  Quincy Adeboyejo proved to be a reliable deep threat with four 50+ yard catches, and will continue to open up the field and utilize Kelly’s big arm.  This offense averaged 40.8 points per game last year, and I expect that number to remain very high.

DEFENSE
The forgotten five-star of the 2013 class, Tony Conner, is a very good player in his own right, and returns to lead the defense.  Yes, Robert Nkemdiche is gone, but they will essentially add a brand new Conner who was injured more often than not in 2015.  In addition, highly-touted transfer Rommel Mageo was Oregon State’s number one tackler last year whose addition will boost this defense.  DeMarquis Gates and Marquis Haynes emerged as playmakers last year as Gates led the team in tackles and Haynes notched 10 sacks as the Rebels top pass rusher.  Haynes will need to prove that he can continue his production without a dominant force on the inside, and without CJ Johnson on the other side.  If one or two players can emerge in the same fashion that Gates and Haynes did last year, this defense could get back down to a sub-20.0 ppg allowed—with the way Freeze has recruited, it’s actually not that far-fetched.   

OUTLOOK
Overall, the Rebels may take a step back this year due to the losses of their superstar players.  The term “irreplaceable” is a buzz word, but certainly applies to the trio that started it all for Freeze.  However, Chad Kelly is the best quarterback in the conference, and his supporting cast is still above average.  If the Rebel offensive line can exceed expectations, this is an offense that can carry a team.  The schedule doesn’t make matters any easier.  Ole Miss opens with Florida State for a premier out-of-conference game, and draws Georgia out of the East.  The fact that we put Ole Miss above Texas A&M and Auburn speaks volumes as we believe both teams have very high ceilings.

   4. Texas A&M Aggies

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner
Since Johnny Manziel departed, the Aggies have not been able to match the production with the hype.  Kevin Sumlin has benefitted from SEC expansion and a downtrodden Texas program, and at one point, appeared to have taken the flag from the Longhorns as the state’s premier program.  After a 5-0 start to last year, featuring wins against Arizona State, Arkansas, and Mississippi State, Texas A&M appeared to be one of the hottest programs in the nation.  Unfortunately, the wheels came off as the Aggies only won three games in their last eight, and all three wins were against inferior opponents.  After the season, both starting quarterbacks, Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray, transferred out of the program.  Similar to Tennessee, albeit Tennessee had a more successful 2015 season, Texas A&M’s hype was largely manufactured from highly ranked recruiting classes, but most of the talent lied in the freshman and sophomore classes.  If Trevor Knight can improve the quarterback position, this team has the talent to contend for the SEC West Title.


​OFFENSE
The offense starts with the supreme skill position talent.  The WR position features three former five-star recruits, including Freshman All-American Christian Kirk.  If three five-star recruits weren’t enough, RB Keith Ford is another blue-chipper who has transferred from Oklahoma.  Over the past two seasons, the Aggies have hovered around 12 yards per reception, down from 13.55 in 2013.  Knight provides this offense with a veteran presence that has been missing since Manziel departed, and the Aggie offense should utilize his running ability better than Oklahoma’s system.  The top three receivers all complement each other perfectly as Kirk is the explosive, home-run threat; Reynolds is a do-everything, productive receiver; and Seals-Jones must always be accounted for given his humongous size and physicality.  Knight was surrounded by talent at Oklahoma, but he may have an even better supporting cast in College Station.  The offensive line is mostly inexperienced, but big and physical.  New offensive line coach Jim Turner likes who he has and we could see an improvement along the front lines in 2016.  I expect the best offense under Sumlin since Manziel left.

DEFENSE
After the defense suffered through horrible 2013 and 2014 seasons, A&M upgraded the defensive coordinator position with long-time LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis.  The combination of young talent and Chavis’ leadership helped improve the average points allowed by a touchdown last year.  With perhaps the best pass-rushing duo in the country and young talent in the interior, this defensive line has the potential to dominate.  Daylon Mack and Kingsley KeKe played very well at DT for true freshmen last year and could make a big jump in their sophomore seasons.  Behind them, the linebackers will return their most talented player Otaro Alaka, who only played in 3 games last year before being injured.  The rest of the group lacks top end talent and size, which could hurt against teams such as LSU and Alabama.  However, the Aggies will be in the nickel package more often than not, which plays to their strength.  Donovan Wilson was an All-SEC performer last year—we have him rated as a 90 overall—and completes one of the best safety trios in the nation.  I expect further improvement for Texas A&M on defense this year.


OUTLOOK
Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Auburn all have the potential to surprise people this year.  I believe all three have top 10 ceilings, and out-of-the-top 25 floors.  Texas A&M may have the best talent from top to bottom, but question marks at QB, OL, and LB are difficult to ignore.  A trip to Auburn early in the season could define the pecking order here.  Given Trevor Knight’s experience and the overall skill position talent around him, I am giving the edge to the Aggies.  Look for Texas A&M to gain back some of its lost momentum in 2016.

​Correspondence with Olin Buchanan, TexAgs.com

   5. Auburn Tigers
MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner
Jeremy Johnson did not live up to the expectations.  Unfortunately, Johnson fell victim to the hype due to his high completion percentage in spot duty while backing up Nick Marshall.  Over the course of last year’s offseason, quiet optimism turned into unrealistic expectations.  Johnson never looked comfortable running Gus Malzahn’s offense, nor was he a great fit, and the entire season unfolded accordingly.  The Tiger offense averaged eight points less per game than in 2014, while the defense marginally improved under Will Muschamp’s leadership.

​OFFENSE
In addition to the disappointment from Jeremy Johnson’s underwhelming season, WR Duke Williams managed to take 10 steps back from a great 2014 season.  Williams was unproductive during his time and ultimately was dismissed for an off-the-field incident.  He was reportedly a selfish teammate and his presence hurt the locker room.  With another speedy quarterback under center and fresh slate in the locker room, the Tiger offense has plenty of reason for optimism in 2016.  QB John Franklin arrives from junior college after originally playing for Florida State.  Franklin’s talents are relatively unknown, but his speed alone will challenge defenses in ways they were not last year, which in itself should improve the offense.  With two very good guards to run behind, I expect this offense to return to a top-15 rushing attack (35th in ypg last year).  To round out a well-balanced offense, the passing game will rely on the playmaking ability of two blue-chip freshmen: Kyle Davis and Nate Craig-Myers.  Marcus Davis and Jason Smith are both effective SEC players, but would be better suited to play the role of Robin.  Duke Williams was supposed to be Batman last year, but his implosion left the Tigers without a go-to target.  If Auburn can get a Freshman All-America type impact from one of these two freshmen, Gus Malzahn’s offensive should regain its old form.

DEFENSE
Auburn has recruited very well on defense in recent years.  While Will Muschamp did not have a huge impact in his only year with the Tigers, he was a big draw for a handful of recruits over the past two seasons.  Montravius Adams and Carl Lawson are well-established, big-time players on the defensive line who should benefit from young talent maturing.  Dontavius Russell and Byron Cowart were blue chip recruits who had productive freshman seasons while Marlon Davidson should make an impact as a true freshman.  If this defensive line can live up to expectations, this defense could limit opponents to less than 4 ypc for the first time since 2010.  Behind them is a group of solid defensive backs who could feast if provided with a strong pass rush.  The group will be led by Carlton Davis and Tray Matthews, while Rudy Ford, who transitioned into a nickel role last year, should continue to thrive in his new position.  The essential question will be if the Tigers can replace long-time starting linebackers Kris Frost and Cassanova McKinzy effectively.

OUTLOOK
I view Auburn as a team with a very high ceiling given Gus Malzahn’s track record with mobile quarterbacks.  Nick Marshall had several deficiencies in his game that were overlooked by his running ability and grasp of the offense.  While the season may (unfairly) hinge on Franklin’s ability to orchestrate the offense, I also like the defense’s potential to generate a pass rush and cover opposing receivers.  If the defense can force a lot of turnovers and bend without breaking, the Tigers have the potential to improve on last year’s numbers.  In addition, avoiding Tennessee out of the East and drawing both Arkansas and Texas A&M at home contribute to a somewhat favorable SEC schedule.  Look for Auburn to once again resemble a Gus Malzahn-coached team and prove that last year was an anomaly.

​Correspondence with Jay Tate, AuburnSports.com
 

   6. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS
MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner
Arkansas comes off of a disappointing 2015 season in which they were predicted to contend for the SEC West Title.  Behind one of the nation’s best defenses and strongest offensive lines, the Hogs appeared to be on their way to the top under Bret Bielema.  Unfortunately, the defense took a step back and the offense wasn’t explosive enough to carry the weight, despite an outstanding year from QB Brandon Allen.  The two-headed monster at RB never got going as Jonathan Williams suffered a season-ending foot injury in August.  The program’s upward trajectory came to a halt, and now the Razorbacks are hoping to stop the bleeding.


​OFFENSE
The brother of Brandon Allen, Austin Allen, will take over the offense after backing up Brandon in 2014 and 2015.  Austin was the more talented player throughout grade school and high school—he boasts two high school state championships to Brandon’s zero—but has yet to prove anything at the collegiate level.  To his benefit, Allen will enter the starting lineup with perhaps the best receiving corps in the Bielema era, featuring five legitimate threats.  Drew Morgan, Dominique Reed, and Jared Cornelius emerged as a very solid WR trio last year, combining for 1771 yards and 19 TDs.  Still, the most talented wide receiver, Keon Hatcher, only played in two games before suffering a season-ending leg injury.  His return, along with potential All-SEC tight end Jeremy Sprinkle, will be the strength of this offense.  Surprisingly, given this is still a team coached by Bret Bielema, the weakness may be the offensive line.  Dan Skipper and Frank Ragnow return to lead this unit, but Denver Kirkland, Sebastian Tretola, and Mitch Smothers have all moved on.  Look for this unit to struggle early in the season before potentially gaining momentum towards the end of the season when the inexperience begins to mature.

DEFENSE
The defense struggled last year after finishing the 2014 season as a top 10 defense that was highlighted by consecutive shutouts against LSU and Ole Miss.  The pass defense struggled as it reverted to 2013 form, giving up 1.0 yard more per passing play than in 2014 and allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.2% of their passes.  I was surprised to see the defensive backs struggle like they did considering who they brought back.  Look for the hiring of former Iowa State head coach Paul Rhoads as DB coach to pay dividends—this is a secondary that has great size and length, and these DBs need to play more aggressively than they did in 2015.  The front seven returns six, including DE Deatrich Wise who will once again be one of the best defensive linemen in the SEC after being named All-SEC last year.  Overall, I do not expect this defense to appear in the top 10 this year, but I do expect it to look more like the 2014 group than the 2015.

OUTLOOK
While there are too many variables at key positions on offense to rank the Razorbacks high, this team has the potential to finish the season ranked in the top 25.  The offensive line is very raw and inexperienced, but the replacement players have the physical tools to be successful.  I expect this team’s season to resemble the 2014 progression path: a slow start and a strong finish.  With TCU, Texas A&M, and Alabama on the first half of the schedule, Arkansas will need to win at least one game to enter the back half with momentum.

​Correspondence with Otis Kirk, Hawgs247

   7. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS
MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner
After improving his passing skills during the 2015 offseason, Dak Prescott led the Bulldogs to a successful encore year following the 2014 season in which they were ranked #1 for four weeks.  Many pundits, including ourselves at Pick Six Previews, thought that the losses of LB Benardrick McKinney, RB Josh Robinson, and key linemen, among others, would ultimately prevent another successful year.  While Dan Mullen’s team did not see quite the same success as 2014, the Bulldogs handled inferior teams and stood toe-to-toe with the powers of the SEC.  Once again, Mississippi State faces some key losses, including Prescott.  I view this as a litmus test for Mississippi State as a program because historically this has not been a team to reload.  However, if the Bulldogs can have another 9+ win year in the toughest division in football, Mississippi State must be considered a top 10 overall program.


​OFFENSE
Prescott improved in nearly every facet last year, improving his accuracy, decision-making, and overall game management despite defenses concentrating on him more.  The 2016 team will certainly feel his absence.  Sophomore Nick Fitzgerald played extremely well in spot duty as he completed 11 of 14 passes for 3 TDs and 0 INTs.  However, it was Damian Williams that looked best in the spring and could end up starting.  At this point, the quarterback position is certainly a weakness.  We are only one year removed from a similar situation that ended in a debacle – Auburn’s Jeremy Johnson had a 75% completion percentage and 3 TDs and 0 INTs while backing up Nick Marshall in 2014.  Last year, he struggled mightily and did not fit well in Gus Malzahn’s run-oriented system.  Over the past two years, wide receivers De’Runnya Wilson and Fred Ross formed one of the best WR duos in the nation last year, combining for nearly 2000 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns in 2015.  Wilson left school early, and his sheer size will change the dynamic of this offense because defenses had to scheme around the mismatch he posed.  Fred Ross’s return is huge as he is one of the best receivers in the nation.  Overall, there are several key pieces to build from, but the quarterback position could limit this offense’s potential.

DEFENSE
The defense returns six starters from a unit that allowed 23.2 points per game last year.  Over the past two seasons, the Bulldog front seven has been physical and talented.  Last year, they had to replace second round draft picks Benardrick McKinney and Preston Smith and this year they have to replace Chris Jones and Ryan Brown.  Still, this remains a talented unit featuring All-SEC LB Richie Brown and DE AJ Jefferson.  Five-star recruit Jeffery Simmons will enter the fold and should wreak havoc in some capacity.  The secondary was very talented, but also very injured last year.  The losses of Will Redmond and Kendrick Market will not hurt as much because they only played 4 and 7 games, respectively.  The defense will once again be a strength for this team.

OUTLOOK
There may not be a team in the country that will feel the loss of a single player more than Mississippi State, which is a testament to how good Prescott was during his final two years, not a knock on Mississippi State’s roster.  If a couple young players can emerge on defense, this group could be dominant.  With a drop in offensive production, the defense will be relied on to win games.  I cannot predict that new stars will emerge, and I’m left with a very good, not elite, defense that will not be able to carry this team in the toughest division in football.
 

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