2016 Notre Dame BYU Armed Forces Preview

2016 Notre Dame Preview

GEORGE DOHERTY
Notre Dame Analyst

If College Football truly is a sport defined by coach and quarterback, Notre Dame should come into the 2016 season with nothing less than Playoff expectations. In the wake of the greatest coaching job of his career, a top 11 finish with a depth chart held together by dental floss, Brian Kelly has solidified himself as one of the top coaches in the game. Kelly enters the 2016 season toting not one but two returning starters at the quarterback position, Junior DeShone Kizer and Senior Malik Zaire, who are both proven signal-callers boasting NFL arms. With a top 10 coach and the most impressive quarterback depth chart in the country, the Irish are poised to make a run at the Playoff this fall.

Notre Dame enters this season on the heels of a strong, yet still somewhat disappointing year in 2015. With the most talented roster of the Brian Kelly era, ND bounced back into the national conversation with a 10-3 record and a No. 11 finish in the final AP poll. Despite these results, many came away from the season expressing regret over the missed opportunities in the rain at Clemson and on the dirt in Palo Alto. Notre Dame’s losses came against teams that finished 2nd (Clemson), 3rd (Stanford), and 4th (Ohio State) in the final AP rankings. Irish fans ought to be proud of the resilience their team showed last season, but had it not been for a number of key injuries in September, the Irish could have been playing on New Year’s Eve. Despite losing a bevy of key contributors, including first round picks Ronnie Stanley (OT) and Will Fuller (WR) along with Butkus Award Winner Jaylon Smith (LB), Notre Dame enters 2016 with the talent and experience to take advantage of a less than daunting schedule.

OFFENSE
In year 7 of his tenure, Brian Kelly seems to have finally figured out the identity of his offense at Notre Dame. Kelly’s base system involves a power spread attack: running both his quarterback and his tailback behind a dominant offensive line, using the quick game to hit the edges, and lobbing deep to take the top off the defense. After years of awkwardly trying to fit a scheme around Tommy Rees and Everett Golson, Notre Dame’s offense has found its final form under Kelly.

Much of the hype surrounding Notre Dame this season has to do with its ongoing quarterback derby. The Irish essentially return two starters at the position: the incumbent DeShone Kizer, a 6’5’’ dual-threat who surpassed all expectations in his fearless freshman campaign, and the other incumbent, Malik Zaire, a cocksure gunslinger who lost the job to a season-ending ankle injury against Virginia. Though Kelly has yet to tip his hand, expectations around South Bend are that the job is firmly Kizer’s to lose. Kizer will enter the season on the Heisman short list, looking to improve on the 21 touchdowns he threw for last season and the 10 scores he ran in as Notre Dame’s de facto short yardage back. His timing and accuracy advantages over Zaire were evident even as the backup last summer, and he can just as often break one off with his legs. Even still, Zaire’s dogged competitiveness and unique running ability will be too much for Kelly to keep off the field altogether. They both will play, with Zaire likely come in as a change of pace QB to keep the defense guessing. The bottom line is this: two of Notre Dame’s five best players play the same position and only one of them can be the guy. Brian Kelly and offensive coordinator Mike Sanford have amassed the most enviable quarterback depth chart in the country, and it will be up to them to manage ego and attitude at the most high profile position in college sports, Notre Dame Quarterback.

While the bulk of the attention goes to the guys with the ball, the foundation of this Irish offense will be up front. Left tackle Mike McGlinchey earns our “99 overall” rating as a top lineman and slides over from the right next to left guard Quenton Nelson to form the best left side in college football. The Irish must account for the loss of more than 100 career starts up front, but offensive line coach Harry Hiestand has recruited as well as anybody along the line and expectations are that the strength of this offense lies in the trenches.

Behind the line, Notre Dame returns Josh Adams and Tarean Folston at running back. Folston, the day 1 starter from last year who got injured almost immediately, teams up with Adams, who burst onto the scene as a freshman capable of turning 6 yards into 60. Both backs will need to be better in short yardage situations to take the pressure off of Kizer, but both are capable of breaking off 1,000 yard seasons given health and opportunity.

On the outside, Notre Dame will look to replace All-American Will Fuller by committee. Senior Torii Hunter, Jr. leads a talented but raw group of wideouts. Hunter, Jr. will line up both in the slot and on the outside and will be a major part of Kelly’s quick passing scheme to get the ball into space. He will be joined in the slot by spring standout Corey Holmes and return specialist CJ Sanders. Going deep will be former 5-star Alize Jones, who kicks outside from tight end this fall, and Equanimeous St. Brown. Tight end Durham Smythe also returns from injury to give the Irish the versatility and unpredictability provided by an all-around tight end. While the Irish offense will lack the home run ability it enjoyed with Fuller, the balanced attack and experience behind center should power one of the most efficient offenses in the country.

DEFENSE
As with the offense, the strength of this year’s defense lies in the trenches. Jarron Jones returns from injury to team with Isaac Rochell to form a monster pairing along the front of Brian Van Gorder’s 4-3 scheme. The line projects to be phenomenal in the run game but severely lacking a consistent pass rush. The Irish will likely need to employ blitzes and sub-packages to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The linebacking corps should be solid, if unspectacular. Nyles Morgan has been receiving Kelly’s praise all spring and summer and it will be up to him to be the conductor of Van Gorder’s complex scheme. On the back end, it will be up to seniors Max Redfield and Cole Luke to live up to their hype and lead a secondary that is long on talent but short on experience. Safety play must improve to cut down on the big plays that so often maligned the Irish in 2015 and Redfield must direct a secondary to limit the amount of coverage busts. Defense doesn’t project to be the strength of this Irish team, but they don’t need to be. Hold a team to under 30 points and the Irish offense should be able to do the rest.

On the Special Teams front, both K Justin Yoon and P Tyler Newsome return, providing the Irish with two invaluable weapons in close games.

OUTLOOK
Notre Dame enters the season favored in its first 11 games, with a season finale at USC as a toss-up. They only play in three true away games (Texas, NC State, USC), and only play four projected top-25 teams (Michigan State, Stanford, Miami, USC) three of whom are replacing their quarterbacks.
Brian Kelly has done an excellent job with recruiting and Notre Dame checks in at #10 in our weighted average recruiting ranking. We expect Kelly to reload well, and think they will handle their 8 easier matchups just fine. The ranked matchups are the swing games, and we expect Notre Dame to go 2-2 in that frame, losing at USC and dropping one of the other three. Should they survive that gauntlet 3-1, they will join serious Playoff discussion.

2016 Notre Dame Preview

2016 PREVIEW
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2016 Notre Dame Preview

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2016 PREVIEW
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