2016 Pac-12 South Division Preview

BRETT CIANCIA
August 1st, 2016

1. USC TROJANS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Last August, I was in the middle of a live radio segment with ESPN Radio Utah when news broke about Steve Sarkisian’s move to alcohol treatment rehab. Needless to say, the Utah Utes segment was fully derailed in favor of the breaking news at USC and the impact it would have on the Trojans’ 2015 season. It was the 2nd straight season I had picked USC to win the South after correctly selecting Arizona State in 2013. Even though the 2014 team was a Hail Mary away from winning the division, it was clear that I was a year off in the prediction, and even with the coaching distractions, USC was able to take home the South last season.

Sark is gone, and Clay Helton brings a new, humble personality to USC as the program now at least has the feeling of stability at the top. While he wasn’t exactly a “splash hire” as most pundits expected, keep in mind that Pete Carroll wasn’t one either back in 2001. I think Helton’s style is exactly what the USC program needs right now, a return to smashmouth football and an exit from the circus charade that the previous two staffs had become. The NCAA roster reductions from the Reggie Bush sanctions are now officially behind them, and while the defense is extremely young, USC has one of the most talented rosters in America. In my opinion this is one of the most overlooked teams nationally.

OFFENSE
With our new Madden-style ratings for every Power 5 starting lineup, USC is the only offense with two 99 overall players: JuJu Smith-Schuster and Zach Banner. And as you can see in the above graphic, 9 offensive players are bolded meaning they are returning starters on this extremely veteran unit. In today’s college football world, it is too common for prized quarterbacks to transfer right away after losing a position battle. You have to give some credit to Max Browne, the former National High School Player of the Year, for patiently waiting 3 seasons behind Cody Kessler. Browne, now a junior, ranks as our 5th best Pac-12 quarterback, and is only that low due his lack of experience. He brings leadership and playbook knowledge while Sam Darnold brings the pure athleticism. The reports from the offseason about Darnold giving Browne a battle for the starting job are more about Darnold’s extreme upside than they are about a potential weakness in Browne. Both guys are more than capable of leading this unit.

The tandem at running back is second to none in the league, as Justin Davis and Ronald Jones III both have all-conference potential. As mentioned, Smith-Schuster is our top rated WR in America, and he backs up his brash style like when he pointed out a Utah defender mid-play, and proceeded to stiff arm him to the ground. Even if a defensive coordinator chooses to double team Smith-Schuster, several other weapons will create mismatches. Darreus Rogers and Steven Mitchell are proven players, while a trio of freshmen are very highly touted (Michael Pittman, Tyler Vaughns, Josh Imatorbhebhe).

Clay Helton has stressed that he wants to make USC a ground pound rushing team again, with the ability to wear down opponents and close out games in the 4th quarter. This strategy shift from prior regimes may just be the perfect match with our #1 rated offensive line in America, along with our top rated tackle Zach Banner. In fact, the entire starting 5 returns intact. 3 of the other 4 linemen are also deserving of all-conference hype. I fully expect this unit to open up holes for the star running backs, and protect new starter Browne until he is at a level of experience and comfort to be on par with the other household names. Helton brought over his younger brother Tyson and Neil Callaway from Western Kentucky where the two had notable success coaching the offense. There will be an increased emphasis on inside running and less zone blocking. One of the biggest locks of this entire season preview is that USC will vastly improve its yards per carry metric (4.47 per, 61st nationally last year) and its rushing offense (168 per game, 70th). The other 10 positions are set – Max Browne’s progression will make the difference between a division crown or a 3rd place finish.

DEFENSE
Clancy Pendergast returns to USC after coaching a Top 15 defense here in 2013 (the unit fell out of the top 50 after his departure). After two seasons with the 49ers, he is back and will bring a scheme that will actually utilize the star players effectively, unlike what we saw from the Justin Wilcox defenses in 2014 & 2015. He refused to blitz enough, was mostly 2-gap, and simply didn’t maximize the potential of his talented roster. Pendergast wants to bring back the 5-2 scheme, and wants to turn loose all of his highly-rated prospects. While just one starter returns in the front seven, it is basically a “who’s who” of the 2014 & 2015 National Signing Day shows, where these 4 and 5 star guys all put on Trojan hats on live TV. Rasheem Green, Noah Jefferson, Porter Gustin, Osa Masina, John Houston, Jack Jones – the list goes on and on. Even though most lack starting experience, there are too many weapons here to not find a starting lineup that works. When Alabama and Ohio State lose starters, they are given the benefit of the doubt because they recruit at an elite level at the top of their conferences. Yes, USC doesn’t have Saban or Meyer on the sideline, but they are in a similar recruiting situation where over the past 5 years they rate as our #1 weighted average recruiting rank in the Pac-12 (8th nationally), so the pieces are certainly there for Pendergast.

Meanwhile, the secondary is a proven commodity led by Adoree’ Jackson, the Olympic-caliber sprinter who is now exclusively focused on cornerback after finishing 2nd in receptions last season on offense. Jackson is one of the most athletic players in America, but I spoke with long-time USC analyst Dan Weber (@dweber3440) and he claimed that freshman Jack Jones is right there with him with the potential to approach Jackson’s high ceiling. That Jones isn’t even a projected starter really speaks to the depth and experience in the back four. Iman Marshall is yet another standout corner, while John Plattenburg and Chris Hawkins bring more experience and a hardnosed attitude to the safety spots. I feel strongly that Pendergast will be able to use his athletes correctly, and I am calling for marked improvement on this side of the ball.

OUTLOOK
With one of the top offenses in the country coupled with a super-talented cast of characters on defense that will now be led by a capable defensive staff, I am calling USC one of the most underrated teams in America. Nationally, it is a 50/50 call with UCLA for the South title, but for the 3rd straight season, I am calling for USC to win the city title and thus the division crown. I am not explicitly calling for the upset over Alabama, but also think the blowout Vegas lines are ridiculous. Not many teams can match up with Alabama in the trenches, but I think USC comes close, especially on offense. By drawing the top 3 North teams in the crossover, Alabama in the opener, and Notre Dame in the finale, this is my vote for toughest schedule in America.

2. UCLA BRUINS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

The momentum was strong heading into the 2015 season, Jim Mora’s 4th year in Westwood. UCLA had defeated cross-town rival USC three straight years, each by double-digits, and was surging on the recruiting trail too. An extremely veteran team with 18 returning starters surrounded 5-star freshman quarterback Josh Rosen and opened with 4 straight wins and a #7 national ranking. Injuries certainly didn’t help, but the defense imploded and simply got outworked by Arizona State in the 38-23 upset. Calling it an upset sounds odd now looking back, as the defense was pushed around for most of the season, especially on the ground. In the California-based Foster Farms Bowl, Nebraska pushed around the Bruins’ front seven, physically dominating them en route to 326 rushing yards.

The bowl loss was in December, but it’s almost like Nebraska continues to defeat UCLA, as they have flipped several UCLA leans and commits as part of their #Calibraska movement. For the 2017 class, UCLA has 3 commits and 7 decommits so far. With the recruiting momentum fading, several star players electing to go pro early, and offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone jumping ship, UCLA appears to be at a crossroads. Can they take truly take the next step from a 8 or 9-win team to a conference title or Playoff caliber team?

OFFENSE
This offseason, Jim Mora danced around the topic of what the offensive strategy will be for the Bruins in year two of the Rosen Era. Mora continued to joke about how coaches love using the blanket terms such as “multiple” or “pro-style.” But he himself uses such phrases too, and ever since the departure of mobile multi-year starter Brett Hundley, the Bruin offense has lacked an identity. I don’t think there was a more underappreciated back in the country as Paul Perkins. His consistency, and refusal to be taken down on initial contact will be missed – especially by a quarterback losing 3 top pass catchers, 3 starting linemen, and the coordinator he signed on with. Rosen is the real deal. He rates as our #2 QB in the Pac-12 after throwing for 3,669 yards and 23 touchdowns as a true freshman. Soso Jamabo (the guy that originally committed to ITT Tech) is a fellow 5-star in the backfield and will share carries with Nate Starks. The QB/RB set is extremely strong.

However, 3 starters must be replaced on the line, while 4 of the top 5 pass catchers are also gone. Conor McDermott is one of the strongest linemen in America, while Kenny Lacy is also a strong returning guard. Look for Kolton Miller to lock down the other tackle spot, with Scott Quessenberry at the right guard. On the outsides, Eldridge Massington returns, and will be joined by converted defensive back (and 2014 Pick Six hero) Ishmael Adams and top recruit Theo Howard. Whenever major roster turnover occurs, the recruiting trend holds more weight than other years. UCLA has recruited towards the top of the conference and the roster is littered with blue-chips (5-year trend ranks 2nd in Pac12, 11th nationally). It’s crazy how the only offensive unknown entering 2015 (Rosen), is one of just two proven commodities entering 2016. I usually call for the 2nd year starting bonus for quarterbacks, but with the roster turnover and coaching change, the gains will be milder than usual.

DEFENSE
Injuries were a major cause of the defensive struggles last season; Myles Jack played in just three games while Eddie Vanderdoes tore his ACL. Despite Jack and Kenny Clark declaring early for the pros, Vanderdoes returns, and due to the swarm of injuries, younger players are ahead of schedule in terms of experience. Depending on your exact definition of “returning starter,” as many as 10 return to this defense. There is simply no way the defense folds like we saw last season when the unit allowed 300+ rushing yards on three occasions, and simply quit here against Arizona State (video link).

Vanderdoes is the best defender on the team, but the secondary is certainly its strongest unit. All four starters are back, with the safety duo of Jaleel Wadood and Randall Goforth leading the way as one of the best safety pairs in America. Deon Hollins brings a strong edge rush in Tom Bradley’s 3-4 base set, while super recruit Mique Juarez is fighting for a starting spot as a true freshman. While Juarez may not start in the opener, look for him to work into the rotation and eventually gain the start. I am calling for significant gains from the Bruin defense here, after some negative momentum a season ago.

OUTLOOK
It is hard to believe that a program can recruit this well and fail to make a serious impact on the conference title race. Mora has had a 6-win ceiling in conference play, and while on a radio segment with ESPN Radio Utah, I mentioned that an off-the-radar candidate for the “coach hot seat” could very well be Jim Mora. It’s a dead heat between UCLA and USC for the South Division again, expectations are high, and I wonder what another 8-win disappointment would do for the hot seat.

That said, Rosen and the veteran defense give a legit shot for 10-wins. Ultimately, I like the program momentum at USC more than what UCLA has going for it right now. They are almost exact opposites entering the 2016 season; USC has the elite offense, QB questions, and an extremely young but talented defense. Basically flip that script for UCLA, meaning that the likely division title in Week 12 will offer a variety of contrasting strengths and weaknesses.

3. UTAH UTES

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Making the step up from a non-AQ conference to the Power 5 will certainly bring its growing pains. For Utah, a perennial power in the Mountain West Conference and the original BCS Busters in 2004 and 2008, it got worse before it got better in the newly-expanded Pac-12. Their conference record regressed from 2011 to 2013 before the 5-4 campaign in 2014.

But last season’s conference opener against Oregon, a 62-20 demolition, proved to be symbolic for the Utes program – Utah has finally arrived as a Pac-12 contender. The 10-3 (6-3) season resulted in a 1st place tie with USC for the South Division, and 12th year head coach Kyle Whittingham achieved the new heights with the same principles that his program is founded on. Utah is a program built on toughness; featuring a nasty defensive line and press man on the corners, they live out the old football philosophy “Run the Ball, Stop the Run” just as much as any program in America. Look for those same principles to keep them in the South race this fall – if they can find capable replacements at the offensive skill positions.

OFFENSE
As mentioned, this is a run-first offensive scheme. Devontae Booker was the perfect definition of a ‘workhorse’ back for the past two seasons, and as he and his 2773 yards depart, it looks like Joe Williams will fill that role. He gained 399 yards in the final three games in Booker’s absence and will be the starting back with Troy McCormick filling more of the versatile role getting touches on sweeps, screens, and more utilization in the pass game. But the major question is at quarterback, where 4-year starter Travis Wilson departs. A 3-way quarterback battle is underway and should extend into fall camp. Troy Williams is a UW transfer who went the JUCO route to pick up some game experience, while Brandon Cox is the incumbent back-up. I talked with Utah analyst Brian Swinney (@BSwinneyScout), and he said that while Whittingham is using typical coach-speak, that between the lines you can pencil in Troy Williams in as the Week 1 starter. However, the wild card in all of this is hyped freshman Tyler Huntley who has the highest upside and brings more of a dual-threat element. Whittingham can either mix him in some packages and see if he is ready for the starter role midseason, or redshirt him for future benefit.

The biggest weakness on the team is at wide receiver due to total inexperience and a tendency to underperform for the past few seasons here at Utah. I noted several dropped passes in the spring game, and they need marked improvement. Utah has had receivers with all of the physical tools and upside, but seemed to lack in consistency. If he can return healthy from a knee injury, it looks like Tim Patrick will be the #1 reciever, with Tyrone Smith at #2. The H-spot is a battle between Kyle Fulks who can be used in many ways like McCormick, and Raelon Singleton, the oft-injured track star that coaches are very high on.

Despite the myriad of questions at the offensive skill positions, the line looks like one of the strongest in the Pac-12, and rates as our #4 line in the league. All 5 starters return intact, and a 6th guy enters the fold to push for a starting job as the #1 JUCO prospect in America Garett Bolles picked Utah over Alabama, Arkansas, and a long list of powerhouse programs. JJ Dielman is the leader of the bunch, but Bolles may just move into the left tackle spot to unseat Sam Tevi. Isaac Asiata is a potential NFL prospect at left guard, while Hiva Lutui is injured until October; Dielman is capable of holding down the fort at center if needed. Even with Booker gone, I expect an improvement in yards per carry (4.17 per, 80th nationally last season).

DEFENSE
It sounds like a broken record, but once again the Utah defense alone makes them a contender, while the offense has major question marks. Specifically, the defensive line is the best in the Pac-12 and joins the national argument. Lowell Lotulelei may just follow in his brother Star’s footsteps as a 1st rounder, while you’d be hard-pressed to find a better tandem of defensive ends with Hunter Dimick and Kylie Fitts both returning. The other tackle spot will be Filipo Mokofisi who is a bit undersized but is one of the team’s strongest guys.

While the defensive line is earning the national hype, do not let it overshadow the secondary who is right up there with Washington and UCLA as the conference’s top units. Marcus Williams is the leader of the group, while corner/nickel trio of Dominique Hatfield, Reginald Porter, and Justin Thomas is primed for another outstanding season. They hope to match last season’s +13 turnover margin (6th nationally) to give the young offense some short fields to work with. Whittingham loves to play press man on the outsides, and with this fierce front four, the corners will need to hold coverage shorter than usual. The other safety spot will be Chase Hansen, who has very high upside and may eventually move to linebacker later in his career due to his frame.

Look for the rush defense to remain in the top 10 nationally (109 yards per game, 6th nationally last year) even with the departure of leading tackler Gionni Paul. And there is no way the pass defense finishes as low as last season’s 103rd ranking. As always, the defense gives Utah a puncher’s chance in the South Division race.

OUTLOOK
I have Utah locked in at the #3 spot in the Pac-12 South, ahead of the Arizona teams due to the extreme strength of the defense, but behind the LA teams because of the offensive skill question marks and the LA team’s superior roster talent and depth. It is nice to see BYU back on the schedule so that both fan bases don’t need to rely on a bowl matchup to see the Holy War. Utah draws the #5 and #6 teams from the North, while avoiding #2 Stanford. I see them opening up 6-1 before finishing in the 8 or 9 win range.

4. ARIZONA WILDCATS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

In 2014, Arizona shocked the Mariota-led #1 Oregon team en route to winning the South Division, but failed to win the rematch in the Pac-12 title game. Still, the 10-win season was the most at UA since 1998. Last year Anu Solomon and Nick Wilson followed up their breakout freshman season with steps back, mostly due to nagging injuries. The defense had issues of its own allowing 35.8 points per game (106th nationally) which led Rich Rodriguez to fire the entire defensive staff. With the offensive skill players returning intact, the offense looks to return to its 2014 level of explosiveness – but the true test will be how the defense responds to the coaching change and scheme overhaul.

OFFENSE
Anu Solomon burst onto the scene as a freshman in 2014 passing for 3793 yards and was fitting in as one of many star quarterbacks in this league. Last year he hit a ‘sophomore slump’ mostly due to two concussions and the ensuing hesitance especially in the rushing game. He sat out all of spring ball which allowed Brandon Dawkins to build off of his strong finish with all of the first team reps. While Dawkins does bring bigger gamebreaking plays, it is Solomon who has the experience, the consistency, and a better grasp of the offense. Regardless, the quarterback position is the strength of the offense, which is the best place to build a foundation around in the Pac-12. Similar to Solomon’s injury issue, tailback Nick Wilson had a breakout freshman season (1375 yards) but was nagged with injuries all of last season. At his best, Wilson looks like a top tier RB in the Pac-12, and even if the injuries persist, Orlando Bradford is a fine complement.

With returning starters Samaje Grant, Nate Phillips, and Trey Griffey, the receivers are the most experienced unit on the team, but need to find a way to stretch the field better. Grant and Phillips are very similar players and provide consistency, but it is Griffey (The Kid’s kid) who provides the big play and has the higher upside. A guy to keep an eye on is converted corner Cam Denson who looks to bring that over-the-top speed that was lacking from the unit in past seasons. The offensive skill positions together are the clear strength of the roster.

The reason I went against the national consensus last preseason and flipped Utah above Arizona was the talent difference in the trenches. Utah had some of the best lines in the nation, while Arizona had some glaring holes all season long. I spoke with Arizona analyst Brad Allis (@WSRBrad), and he thinks the line is ready to take a step forward, even if that step is a small one. Jacob Alsadek is the leader of the line, with returning starters on the left side in Layth Friehk and Freddie Tagaloa. This looks like a middle-of-the-pack offensive line but will be serviceable enough for this offense to return to 2014 power.

DEFENSE
The offense seems to be back on the right track, but the biggest questions for the 2016 Wildcats are concerning the defense; how quickly can they adjust to the scheme change from the 3-3-5 to the more traditional 4-3, and can the unit be viable in year one of the coaching change? Former Boise State defensive coordinator Marcel Yates takes over and added ace recruiter Dante Williams from San Jose State. The defensive staff is younger and hopes that the added energy and excitement will connect with the current roster and future recruits. Even with the departure of all-everything Scooby Wright, the linebackers look like the strongpoint. DeAndre Miller has breakout potential, Cody Ippolito returns from injury, and Michael Barton adds depth from Cal. Paul Magloire was forced to move to LB last season, and even though he looked out of place at times, you cannot ignore his high production. They might not have the full personnel ready for the scheme shift, so expect some 3-3-5 principles and the use of outside linebackers as rush ends.
Tellas Jones sat out of spring with an off-the-field suspension, but if he is cleared, he is a bright spot in a secondary that needs all the help it can get – finishing 115th in pass defense last season. At the corner spots, look for Dane Cruikshank to claim the spot opposite of DaVonte Neal, who has shown glimpses of greatness but has been an overall disappointment.

OUTLOOK
The quarterback position is vital in all of college football, but compared to other leagues it may be the most important in the Pac-12. We are going against the national consensus here placing Arizona above Arizona State, with the most important differentiator being the quarterback. We are bullish on Solomon returning to 2014 form while Arizona State has a 3-man mess that could carry into the season as we saw back in 2012.

The schedule is a gauntlet and Arizona will probably be underdogs in every conference game until November. However, they draw auto-win Oregon State from the North (ASU does not), and get to host the Territorial Cup which will ultimately be the swing game for 4th place and perhaps have a bowl bid on the line for both teams.

5. ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Back in 2013, we were the only preseason publication to correctly predict Arizona State to win the South Division. They have been far from predictable the past two seasons, as what looked like a rebuilding year in 2014 resulted in 10 wins, only to be followed by a rocky 6-7 campaign last season. Even week to week the Sun Devils are tough to understand; after being punished by USC 42-14, they traveled to the Rose Bowl and physically dominated the then-#7 UCLA Bruins (here is some evidence). Quarterback questions, a rebuilding offensive line, defensive collapses, and overall inconsistency moves Arizona State out of contention for the South title for the first time since expansion.

OFFENSE
The buzzword you always hear associated with Arizona State is “high-octane” as their up-tempo attack has finished in the top 35 nationally in scoring each of Todd Graham’s four seasons. To make it a 5th straight season, major holes must be replaced at quarterback and along the offensive line, all with a coordinator change. ASU is the only FBS team that doesn’t have a single quarterback on roster that has attempted a collegiate pass. This inexperience has led to a three-man battle for the starting job, a battle that is nowhere close to being resolved and will lead into fall camp and perhaps the season. Let’s not jump to any conclusions, as this battle reminds me of 2012 when Michael Embank and Mike Bercovici were the leaders in front of Taylor Kelly. Former 4-star Bryce Perkins took the first snap in the spring game, so you will see him in the starting lineup graphic on the left side of the page, but that is a space holder until a true starter emerges. As mentioned, 4 starters must be replaced up front, with former blue-chipper Evan Goodman as the sole returner at left tackle. Sam Jones looks like a sure starter while Stephon McCray has been a contributor in the two-deep for years. I spoke with Hod (@DevilDigest) and he expects the walk-on Tyler McClure to win the position battle at center over JUCO transfer A.J. McCollum. It is also noting the overall youth in the two-deep as Goodman and McClure are the only seniors out of all 10 linemen. The yards per carry metric was already low last season (4.33, 75th nationally) and looks like that will be tough to improve on this fall.

The strength of the offense comes at the skill positions as they are stocked with proven playmakers. A dangerous duo in the backfield will put defensive coordinators through fits, especially given Demario Richard’s and Kalen Ballage’s abilities in the pass game. They rate as our 4th and 9th best backs in the conference, respectfully. While the receivers lose DJ Foster and Devin Lucien, Tim White and Cameron Smith are proven starters. Smith adds the vertical deep threat while former blue-chipper Jalen Harvey provides the possession-type skill set. The big question is how quickly N’Keal Harry, the nation’s #1 WR recruit, can break into the rotation. Kody Kohl is rates as our 3rd tight end in the league, and Jay Jay Wilson was a spring hero. The staff likes versatile tight ends, and these green quarterbacks will likely rely a bit on their mismatches across the middle of the field. With the unproven quarterback and rebuilding line, look for more of a west coast style with shorter, quicker timing routes.

DEFENSE
Todd Graham is known for his attacking, blitz-heavy defensive scheme. When the blitz hits the rewards are nice, the disruption and explosiveness are great. But this aggressive style leaves the unit vulnerable to the big play, an issue that severely damaged last year’s unit, en route to the worst passing defense in America of 2015, and in worst in Arizona State history. A better pass rush is expected, as JoJo Wicker and Tashon Smallwood present a powerful duo up front. Wicker provides the best pass rush on the team, while Viliami Latu is the blue collar veteran at the nose spot. But the strength of the defense comes at linebacker, as Salamo Fiso and Christian Sam present one of the better tandems in the league.

ASU uses special names for two defensive positions; the DEVIL backer is a DE/LB hybrid that will be played by spring hero Koron Crump, while the SPUR is a LB/DB/Nickel type role that will be filled by freshman Malik Lawal. The secondary obviously needs improvement which means some moving parts; De’Chavon “Gump” Hayes moved over to corner from WR, while Kareem Orr moved down from safety to take the spot opposite of Hayes. Laiu Moeakiola is a proven contributor, while Armand Perry showed some promise as a freshman but missed time with an injury. Graham, as usual, has brought in some JUCO guys to compete and add depth. It is safe to say that it cannot get worse this fall on defense. I think the front seven is more than capable of causing more disruption in the backfield, and continue to control the ground game (126 rush yards per game, 20th nationally).

OUTLOOK
At a quick glance, it is easy to focus on the big names on the schedule. But for Arizona State, in somewhat of a transition year, the expectations need to be tempered a bit and a reasonable goal would be overall roster development resulting in a bowl appearance. To reach that goal, the potential swing game is actually the conference opener against a rebuilding Cal team. If last year’s 48-46 game was any indicator, this will be a wild one that may end up making the difference between 5 and 6 wins.

It became a decision between Arizona and Arizona State for the 4th and 5th spots in the South – despite the national consensus going with Arizona State, I am picking the Wildcats to steal back the state title. Quarterback play is more important in this league than any other in America. We know Solomon’s ceiling and his backup’s capabilities. We have no clue who will take snaps for the Sun Devils this year, and the battle could last all season.

6. COLORADO BUFFALOES

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

There is an expected learning curve when joining a new conference, and for the Pac-12’s 11th and 12th members, Colorado and Utah, the first few seasons where quite an adjustment. For Utah, it was a step up from the non-AQ Mountain West Conference. For both teams it was a full schedule of new opponents, an even more pass-heavy style of offense to defend, and new recruiting turf wars. The only difference is that Utah was able to finally break through in year 4 and year 5, posting winning conference records and even a 10-win campaign last season. Colorado is entering year 6 and has failed to produce in the win column. I think it is safe to say that the program is improving, even if the win/loss record doesn’t show it. The roster finally has depth and resembles a Pac-12 roster. The facilities are now on par with conference rivals with the addition of the state-of-the-art Champions Center. And on the field, last year CU played 4 of 5 division teams to within a score – head coach Mike MacIntyre hopes that these close losses reverse this season or his seat might start to get a little warm.

OFFENSE
It all starts at quarterback, where 3-year starter Sefo Liufau may not get the national attention as the other Pac-12 star passers, but was doing a fine job. Once he went down to injury, the offense only averaged 12.8 points per game. While he is on pace to return in the fall, CU almost landed one of the top graduate transfers of the offseason in former Texas Tech quarterback Davis Webb, who signed non-binding financial aid papers with CU, but ultimately chose Cal. Liufau has some new targets to throw to as a pair of JUCO transfers will fight for playing time. Juwann Winfree is a surefire starter while fellow transfer Kabion Ento will compete with Bryce Bobo for the third receiver spot. Winfree’s large frame is a nice complement to small speedster and returning leader Shay Fields. Sean Irwin is also a strength, as this receiving group is the top unit on the entire roster.

Probably the next most talented would be the running backs, led by Phillip Lindsay who is the #1 guy in a “back by committee” group. While three additional backs will vie for carries, look out for Beau Bisharat, the incoming 4-star who is the highest rated recruit in the MacIntyre era.
The offensive line needs significant improvement as the talent level drops significantly after left tackle Jeromy Irwin. It is rare for a freshman to break through into the starting lineup anywhere, but is even rarer along the offensive line where strength and development take a few offseasons to accumulate. But Colorado plans on starting freshman Tim Lynott at right guard, while freshman Aaron Haigler is pushing for the start at right tackle. I spoke with Adam Munsterteiger, the publisher of Scout’s CU page BuffStampede.com, and he says that despite the spring hype, it is unlikely for Haigler to win the start over senior Shane Callahan. Until noted progress occurs, this unit is the weakness of the entire roster. The 24.6 points per game (97th nationally), 3.75 yards per carry (109th) and 5.12 yards per play (100th) need improvement to compete in the pinball Pac-12.

DEFENSE
For a 4-9 team, the defense really wasn’t that bad. In fact, the secondary was actually a strength, finishing 2nd in the conference in pass defense. It is Jim Leavitt’s 2nd season as defensive coordinator here, so I am expecting some efficiencies in terms of scheme understanding and roster evaluation. You may remember Leavitt from when he was the head coach at South Florida, leading the Bulls to as high as #2 in the nation in that wild 2007 season. He has that same high energy and it provided a spark on this side of the ball. The strength of the defense lies in the back seven, specifically the secondary led by a duo of all-conference level players in corner Chidobe Awuzie and safety Tedric Thompson. They operate out of a 3-4 base, but in this pass-heavy conference, they are in the nickel about 80% of snaps. This nickel role is especially where Awuzie thrives.

The backers have some budding stars as well; Addison Gillam is fighting injuries but is the leader in the middle with a high upside, while hybrid types Derek McCartney and Jimmie Gilbert provide support on the outsides. The defensive line features Josh Tupou at the nose, with Jordan Carrell and Leo Jackson at the ends. Samson Kafovalu had some off-the-field issues but looks to be on schedule for a return – should that hold true, he has the talent to surpass Jackson at end. The 27.5 points per game doesn’t look that great on paper, but in most of the losses, the defense kept the game within reach. Leavitt hopes that the offense can give him a little more support this fall.

OUTLOOK
It is hard to believe that a program that was a perennial top 25 and bowl team during the 1990s and early 2ooos can fall off the map so quickly and quietly. The current roster wasn’t even alive for the Buffs National Title in 1991, or for the Kordell Stewart Hail Mary of 1994. And most were still in preschool for the 2001 season, CU’s last double-digit win season.

A team that has won 5 conference games in 5 seasons needs to prove themselves before earning my trust. It is as simple as that. Given the strength of the Pac-12 South, and the whole conference for that matter, there are no easy conference games anymore. While there may not be the headlining Playoff contenders that other conferences can flaunt, the depth from top to bottom in this league is notable. While MacIntyre is doing the right things with facilities, staff, and a few recruiting wins, the gains need to be converted to actual football wins soon. They do draw Oregon State at home, which looks like CU’s best shot at a conference win. Week 3 presents a nice throwback matchup – the Buffs travel to Ann Arbor to (hopefully) recreate that Hail Mary of 1994.