2016 Big Ten East Division Preview

BRETT CIANCIA
August 1st, 2016

1. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

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Co-Owner

PLAYOFF PICK

After closing the 2014 season by beating Wisconsin 59-0, Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, and then Oregon in the National Championship, the expectations were at an all-time high heading into last season. In fact, Ohio State became the first team ever to receive all 60 first-place votes in the preseason AP poll. Cardale Jones won the quarterback battle, but both he and 2014 star JT Barrett both played and started games. It seemed as though the offense was in a rut all season, and that they had lost that championship drive that we saw in 2014. This is always an issue for defending national champions, but last August I was confident that Urban Meyer would keep that motivation at a high level. Remember that back in 2012, his first season here, Ohio State was serving a postseason ban and despite no championship possibilities, Meyer was able to keep his team hungry and focused every week to go a perfect 12-0.

The rain-soaked loss to Michigan State cost Ohio State the Big Ten East title, and essentially the Playoff bid. Even after steamrolling Michigan and Notre Dame to end the season, almost every NFL-ready underclassman made the early jump to the pro draft. Most teams with just six returning starters would chalk up the season as a rebuilding season. But here at Ohio State, there is no “rebuilding” but rather a “reloading” after finishing 2nd nationally in our 5-year weighted average recruiting rankings. Meyer has the pieces for another title run, it’s just a matter of how long it takes to find that starting 22.

OFFENSE
Ezekiel Elliott, Braxton Miller, Cardale Jones, Taylor Decker, Michael Thomas, Nick Vannett. These six guys only make up half of the Buckeye’s 12-man draft class, a group that almost broke the national record (set by OSU in 2004). Only a handful of programs can withstand that amount of talent turnover. Ohio State is one of them.

There will be no quarterback circus this preseason, as former Heisman finalist JT Barrett is now the unquestioned starter and team leader. I expect a full return to his 2014 poise and production, offering more of a dual-threat nature than Cardale brought. Though the question remains about the amount of quarterback running Meyer will dial up, especially given the quarterback depth concerns behind Barrett. Up front, three starters must be replaced, but the two coming back are all-conference locks in Pat Elflein and Billy Price. Elflein is actually moving over to center this season, and earned our “99 overall” as a top rated lineman. The three new starting lineman were all 4-star recruits.

In fact, every projected offensive starter (besides Elflein, ironically) were 4-star recruits. There is no shortage of playmakers at the skill positions, and they each will have plenty of chances to prove themselves. Mike Weber was the spring hero at running back and looks like the feature back. He would have been splitting carries with Bri’onte Dunn, but since his July dismissal, Meyer has moved Curtis Samuel back to RB from his slot wide receiver role. Dontre Wilson, like Samuel, is an offensive weapon that Meyer is always scheming new ways to get the ball to. At the outside receiver spot, look for Noah Brown who is healthy after showing some great signs in 2014 but was lost to injury last preseason. Freshman Austin Mack was also turning heads this preseason, and looks to help fill the void of Michael Thomas as a true outside receiver. I know it sounds crazy, but the offense may actually improve from last season’s disappointing 28th finish in scoring offense. The team will be more focused with an established starting quarterback, and the offensive strategy can be built solely around Barrett instead of wavering the identity and strategy with the Jones/Barrett circus we saw last year.

DEFENSE
Joey Bosa, Eli Apple, Darron Lee, Vonn Bell, Adolphus Washington, Joshua Perry. Now this chunk of talent will be harder to replace, at least initially. The three returning starters provide proven star power at each level of the defense. Tyquan Lewis is back at defensive end, and will now be joined full time by Sam Hubbard, who did a fine job filling in for Joey Bosa in the Fiesta Bowl.

Raekwon McMillan earned our “99 overall” as a top rated linebacker, and will be flanked by Dante Booker and Chris Worley. The unit still looks strong, but it remains to be seen who co-coordinators Luke Fickell and Greg Schiano will use to fill that Darron Lee role. Gareon Conley is back at corner, and he was quietly pretty solid last season despite being overshadowed by all of the NFL talent. “DB U” will be rotating guys until the other three starting spots are locked down, but for now we have projected starters of Marshon Lattimore (CB), Malik Hooker (S), and Damon Webb (S). It is just a matter of finding those 11 ‘silver bullets’ that mesh the best as a unit.

OUTLOOK
Every season we give Alabama the benefit of the doubt. They lose starters every year and young guys jump pro early, but we always trust that Saban will reload and not miss a step. Why can’t we do the same for Ohio State? No one besides Alabama has recruited as strongly as Ohio State, and Meyer and Saban are the two best coaches in the game right now. Yes, the expectations suffocated them in a rain-soaked, last-second field goal loss to Michigan State. But I have no doubt in my mind that Ohio State was one of the three best teams in America last season. We will look back ten years from now and wonder, ‘how the heck didn’t 2015 Ohio State repeat as national champions?’

The Oklahoma game is a toss-up, but Ohio State can afford to lose it, as long as they run the table in the Big Ten. They host Nebraska in their toughest cross-over game, travel to Happy Valley for a white-out night game, and then get both Michigan State and Michigan in the final two weeks. Some pundits are pointing to that timing as a bad thing. I disagree. If you look back at how that 2014 season unfolded, the early loss to Virginia Tech only rallied the team harder, and the young bunch grew stronger and more confident every week. And then 59-0 happened. Look for another 2014-like surge towards the end of the year and into the Playoffs. Maybe we’ll see World War 5 between Meyer and Saban.

2. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES

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Co-Owner

Unless you live under a rock, or prefer the other “futbol,” you have certainly heard about some of Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh’s attention-grabbing offseason. Whether it be calling out successful coaches on Twitter, appearing ringside at WWE, “Netflix and Chill” and climbing trees with recruits, or of course forcing NCAA action on his beloved satellite camps, Harbaugh has found a way to keep Michigan in the news (good or bad) every week of the offseason. The last time we saw such an attention-seeking head coach in college football was Lane Kiffin during his time at Tennessee and USC. Kiffin publically calling out Urban Meyer (then-Florida head coach), is eerily similar to Harbaugh’s public Twitter shots at rival coaches and programs.

However, there is one major difference. Kiffin had zero success prior to his college head coaching career -- he lasted 1.5 seasons in Oakland, and had Janikowski attempt a 76-yard field goal. Meanwhile, Harbaugh has backed up his weird public charade with consistently solid football development. He turned perennial loser Stanford into the perennial top 10 Stanford we know today. He then went to the NFL and turned the losing 49ers into NFC Champions. While the “Harbaugh Hype” has been out of control this offseason, the difference here is that behind all the headlines and noise, he is a strong football coach with a blue-chip filled roster looking to build off of a 10-3 opener.

OFFENSE
Given how Harbaugh and his staff turned Jake Rudock into an efficient winning quarterback in just one offseason, I am not as concerned as other national pundits in regards to the quarterback vacancy here. It looks like a 2-man battle between Wilton Speight and Houston-transfer John O’Korn, with Speight with the edge heading into fall camp. Whoever wins the job will be protected by a top-notch offensive line and will have a trio of all-conference weapons to throw to.

4 of 5 starters return up front, led by Mason Cole, the team’s top lineman who this year will move over to the center spot. As you can see in the starting lineup graphic, 4 of the 5 lineman are blue-chip recruits (Kyle Kalis a 5-star) that will continue to develop in their second full season with the Harbaugh staff. This unit rates as our #2 offensive line in the conference, and I expect more running lanes for a committee of backs led by De’Veon Smith, Drake Johnson, and USC-transfer Ty Isaac. I am surprised we didn’t see more of Isaac last fall, but I feel he will have a bigger role this season.

More so than other offenses, the tight ends are used heavily in Harbaugh schemes. Jake Butt is our 2nd rated tight end in America, but he is basically a big-body receiver as he can line up in the slot occasionally. Add to that a 1-2 punch of Jehu Chesson and Amara Darboh and you have the top rated receiver core in the Big Ten. The only question on this side of the ball is the guy under center, and it just so happens to be for former Michigan quarterback Harbaugh’s specialty. If he made Rudock into a winner, I am confident that one of these candidates can emerge to be at least a game manager, distributing the ball to these playmakers and limiting mistakes.

DEFENSE
Michigan’s defense pitched three straight shutouts (#22 BYU, Maryland, #13 Northwestern), the first team in Division 1 football to pull this off since 1980. Despite allowing 41 points to both Indiana and Ohio State, the unit was able to finish 6th nationally in scoring defense allowing just 16.4 points per game. Defensive coordinator DJ Durkin leaves Ann Arbor to take the head coaching spot at Maryland, but Harbaugh found a very strong replacement.

Last season, Don Brown was able to lead Boston College’s defense to a top 5 finish in every major statistical category, despite a total lack of blue-chip talent, and a nation-worst offense giving his guys no help at all. Brown takes over a unit that features not just one, but two #1 defensive recruits (Peppers and Gary), and 8 of 11 projected starters were rated 4 stars or higher. Basically, he won the Daytona 500 with a broken-down sedan with a wheel missing, and now has the keys to Earnhardt’s machine.

The star power is unbelievable, starting up front with defensive end Chris Wormley and defensive tackle Ryan Glasgow, whose presence was felt more after his season-ending injury, as the defensive line eroded without him. The unit is so veteran, that Gary is not even slated as a starter, but will instead bring 5-star depth to the rotation. The only unit with question marks is the linebackers, as all 4 guys depart. But do-it-all Jabril Peppers moves down from the secondary to handle the strong side backer spot. Harbaugh said that Peppers could start at any non-line position on the team – don’t shrug that off as a Harbaugh quote, because the hype is real. Jordan Lewis earns our 99 overall at corner back, and returning starter Delano Hill is back at safety. From an already stingy defense last season, the depth has been improved, and the coaching change is at the very least a wash, at best a genius move that will yield the #1 unit in America. They call Brown Dr. Blitz, and this could be this could be the most feared defense in the nation.

OUTLOOK
There is something special brewing in Ann Arbor, and for the first time since 2007 Michigan will be pre-ranked in the Top 10. There will be no App State meltdown like we saw that season. Michigan is actually the most bet on team in Vegas to win the National Championship. While I think that is taking the hype a bit too far, the gap between Ohio State is closing. Look for Michigan to avenge their heartbreaking loss to the Spartans, finish 2nd in the East, and play in the New Years Six.

3. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

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Co-Owner

Last preseason, I went on ESPN Radio Detroit and I made the prediction that the Week 12 showdown with Ohio State would be a #1 vs. #2 matchup that decides the Big Ten East and the conference’s Playoff spot. If it weren’t for an upset loss to Nebraska (controversial at best), it would have ended up being #2 vs. #3 at kickoff. Still, all the rest held true as MSU outlasted the defending national champions in a rain-soaked Horseshoe, 17-14, to clinch the East.

Some seasons are remembered for crazy games or star performances or major upsets. 2015 will stand out for its weekly routine of shocking plays, the stunning moments that make our game so great. Michigan was about to finally steal back the state title, but the punter dropped the ball and the Spartans returned the fumble for the walk-off winning score.

You can put away all that talk about Michigan State being Michigan’s “little brothers.” Besides the 2012 down year when the program was catching its breath, the 6-year stretch includes a 58-10 record and 5 victories over Michigan. And ‘surrender cobra’ excluded, none of them were within two touchdowns. Mark Dantonio has excelled at player development and has a knack for turning 3-star recruits into All-Americans and draft picks. Look for the reloading trend to continue in 2016.

OFFENSE
With most of the East Division moving toward the spread offense, Michigan State has stayed true to its smashmouth identity. All-time leading passer Connor Cook departs, and hands over the offense to 5th-year senior Tyler O’Connor, who led the upset win over Ohio State. O’Connor is an efficient runner, and we should see more quarterback run plays, draws and zone reads. Even though we won’t see him start this season, strong-armed freshman Brian Lewerke is turning heads in practice and looks like the quarterback of the future.

What differentiated Michigan State last season was elite strength on both lines, and although some star power left for the NFL, the outlook is still positive up front. Brian Allen leads at center, while Dennis Finley has surged forward this offseason and will start at left tackle. As usual, Michigan State will employ a 7-man rotation along the line, and as a unit they rate as our #4 offensive line in the conference. They will be opening up holes for breakout star LJ Scott, who had his moment in the Big Ten title victory over #4 Iowa. If the glimpses of what we saw in his freshman season can become his default, he has a very bright future ahead of him. Currently we have Scott rated as the 3rd best running back in the Big Ten, but could even rate higher after we see a full season performance.

The top two receivers, Aaron Burbridge and Macgarrett Kings, accounted for over 50% of production and both must be replaced. R.J. Shelton and Felton Davis III are the easy names to throw in there as replacements, but an unknown freshman is prepared for an absolute breakout season. I spoke with Michigan State analyst Hondo Carpenter, who spoke very highly of Donnie Corley. He said that Dantonio has super high praise for the practice hero, and there is speculation that he could grow into the best athlete Dantonio has coached since Ted Ginn. I usually take the offseason hype with a grain of salt, but this is an unseen level of praise, and I expect him to be an X-factor.

DEFENSE
As always, Dantonio’s Spartans follow the old football mantra: “run the ball, stop the run.” Just like the offensive line, star power departs, but enough returns to make this a top 3 line in the league. Malik McDowell is an absolute force at defensive tackle, and earned our “99 Overall” rating as the top defensive tackle in America. There are national stars at each level of the defense. In addition to McDowell up front, Riley Bullough leads the linebacker core; he is a very cerebral player who also added 15 pounds of muscle strength this offseason. Flanking Bullough on the outside is Chris Frey, who plays with a high level of emotion.

Perhaps Dantonio’s most impressive feat is the constant reloading of the secondary. Once known as the “No Fly Zone,” most people expected a drop off after those stars moved on to the NFL. But once again the secondary is loaded with talent. Montae Nicholson and Demetrious Cox form one of the top safety tandems in America. While Nicholson is the more talented pure safety, Cox is drawing high praise from NFL scouts due to his versatility and ability to play both corner and safety. Vayante Copeland is another guy with a high ceiling, despite his youth. I am calling for an improvement on this side of the ball, and statistic gains in points per game allowed (21.7, 25th nationally) and passing defense (234 yards per game, 77th nationally).

OUTLOOK
Coming into the research process, I felt the tough decision was going to be picking either Ohio State or Michigan to win the division, with Michigan State as a clear distant #3. But after deeper analysis, it is clear that Michigan State is very much in the thick of this race and it became a 3-team race. A few issues made the slight difference in placing them below #2 Michigan. Losing an all-time leading passer cannot be understated, as well as losing two all-conference lineman and the top two receiving targets. I know Dantonio can reload on defense, and I have no worries there. But can he do the same on offense, and can the unit take those hits and still rally enough to win close games? The margin for error was already razor-thin to begin with, as 7 games were decided by a score or less. The Spartans went 6-1 in those, and without some offensive improvement, that number could start to reverse this season. While still a clear top 15 team, Michigan State is a slight notch below the other contenders.

4. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

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After back-to-back 7-6 seasons, head coach James Franklin replaced both his coordinators, which can sometimes be the smoke rising from an approaching hot seat. Franklin has had no trouble recruiting, and even through the sanction classes Penn State rates 25th in our 5-year weighted average recruiting index. But his issue has been translating the blue chips into wins. While they have avoided any losing seasons, PSU is still just 1-8 against the East powers since 2012 (Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan) and the blowout losses make the distance from the division’s elite seem wider than ever. The feel is that the coordinator moves will buy Franklin a transition year, but losses to in-state rivals and continued blowout losses may shorten the leash.

OFFENSE
This is not your grandfather’s Penn State offense. Historically one of the most conservative, ‘three yards and a cloud of dust’ offenses is undergoing a major overhaul this offseason. Franklin brought in Joe Moorehead from Fordham to install his uptempo offensive attack. I talked with Penn State analyst Greg Pickel, who said that the team has been very receptive to the scheme shift, and they have bought in this offseason. It is easy to read “uptempo” and automatically assume it will be a Mike Leach, Big 12 aerial attack. But view this scheme more as a Baylor or Oregon offensive strategy, where the goal is to run the ball between the tackles to set up the passing game. Yes, it is a spread, no-huddle scheme, but it still has the run-first goal.

After filling in during the Gator Bowl, Trace McSorley looks to be the leader to take over for NFL-bound Christian Hackenberg. Don’t mind the coach-speak, this “battle” is clearly led by McSorley, who went 23-27 for 281 yards and 4 touchdowns in the spring game. He is joined in the backfield by our #1 rated running back in the Big Ten, Saquon Barkley. This guy is the total package: speed (4.38 40-time), strength (390 power clean), and vision. The skill players continue on the outsides with one of the league’s best duos. Chris Godwin is the star outside receiver, DaeSean Hamilton moves into the slot role this season, while Saeed Blacknail is the speedster drawing high reviews. Even with Brent Wilkerson’s departure from the team, tight end is a deep group led by Mike Gesicki. But keep a close eye on former O’Brien “run-on” Tom Pancoast of Unionville, PA.

The skill positions are very strong, but the key to this offense’s success as a whole is centered on the glaring issue up front. When scholarship/roster reductions hit, the area that is impacted the worst is the depth along the lines. Offensive line has been a brutal unit for Penn State for several years now, and Moorehead hopes his new system can help alleviate the problem. He also brought in Matt Limegrover to coach the line, a guy who had success with less talent at Minnesota. Hopefully he can shift the line’s attitude, a group that at times looked like it simply didn’t want to be on the field (evidence: Temple’s 2-man rush forces a sack). Andrew Nelson is a potential star at left tackle, and Brian Gaia moves over to center. From there, significant competition is underway, which is always a good thing for player development.

DEFENSE
Like the offense, the biggest question mark surrounds the defensive line. But it has a different feel here, as these are questions of “reloading” the team’s strongpoint of 2015, while the offensive line has to “rebuild” an awful unit. The line loses 3 stars to the NFL – Carl Nassib, Anthony Zettel, and Austin Johnson – with Garrett Sickels as the only returning starter. The back seven certainly has more game experience, and the trio of linebackers looks stout. Brandon Bell is the #1 LB and has an outside spot locked down, while Jason Cabinda battles Nyeem Wartman-White for the inside spot. Either way, the other guy will claim the other outside spot. Bell and Cabinda are returning starters, but Nyeem Wartman-White was also a starter earlier in the year prior to his season-ending injury in the Temple game.

After Bell, the next best defender on the roster is safety Marcus Allen who will lead the secondary with returning starter at cornerback Grant Haley. John Reid will claim the other corner spot after impressing in some playing time spots last season as a freshman. Look for the defense to come close to their #26 ranking in scoring defense, and even eclipse that mark if the defensive line can reload sooner rather than later.

OUTLOOK
Penn State looks like a clear-cut #4 in the Big Ten East. While they can recruit toe-to-toe with the upper half, they haven’t proven it on the field yet. That said, their roster talent separates them from the lower-tier of Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers. It is nice to see Pittsburgh back on the schedule, an in-state rivalry that was played every season from 1935 to 1992. Penn State fans have bought up entire packages of Pitt season tickets, just to secure their way into the 9/10 game. After that Keystone battle, State gets a rematch with Temple, who beat PSU for the first time since WWII. Iowa will be a night-game 11/5 in a crossover from the West Division. Penn State is somewhat of a mystery, especially offensively, but has the talent to at least place them above the bottom-tier, and hopefully have a puncher’s chance against the East elite.

5. INDIANA HOOSIERS

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The Hoosiers returned to bowl season for the first time since 2007, and a controversial ending cost them their first bowl win since 1991. That last-second, heart-breaking loss was kind of a theme in 2015, as IU lost one-possession games to Ohio State, Michigan (OT), Iowa, and Rutgers. 5 of the 7 losses could have swung the other way, and it was the defense’s inability to stop anybody that held back Indiana from an even higher milestone. That will be the same question mark and potential limiting factor again in 2016.

OFFENSE
Sometimes roster timing is everything. The offense’s star QB-RB duo of Nate Sudfield (3573 yards passing) and Jordan Howard (1319 yards rushing) must be replaced, while the core of a strong offensive line, and a veteran receiver core return. If Sudfield and Howard could join the rest of this veteran group, it would be getting national hype.

Dan Feeney headlines the offensive line, that itself is one of the strongest in the league. Feeney earned our 99 overall rating after allowing just one sack in 2719 college snaps. Dimitric Camiel has 18 career starts and has the right tackle spot locked down next to Feeney, while Brandon Knight is the young new-comer with a high ceiling. Even with the loss of NFL-bound Jason Spriggs, the new quarterback will have time to distribute the ball. The top three targets return from last season where combined they accrued 2625 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns. Simmie Cobbs is the tall, deep-threat, while Mitchell Paige is a smaller, walk-on, possession guy that is a very solid 3rd option. Kevin Wilson’s pass-happy offense will again rotate in several receivers, so look for sophomores Nick Westbrook and J-Shun Harris to have prominent roles.

It is a three-way battle at quarterback, between Richard Lagow, Danny Cameron, and incumbent back-up Zander Diamont. Cameron is the son of LSU offensive coordinator Cam, knows the offense better, but Lagow has the stronger arm and has the slight lead heading into fall camp. In the backfield, Devine Redding is the more typical runningback, while Camion Patrick is a former wide receiver but will get significant action here. Last season, the offense led the Big Ten in almost every statistical category, headlined by the 36.5 points per game and 294 passing yards per game. There is no reason the Hoosiers can’t match that output this season, but it is easy to wonder “what-if” Sudfield and Howard had one more season in the crimson & cream.

DEFENSE
For as strong as the offense has been recently, the defense has continued to hold back IU from moving up the East Division hierarchy. The defense finished last in almost every statistical carry, a contrast to the elite offensive output. As mentioned, 5 of the 7 losses were within a score, and in most of them the defense simply couldn’t finish the job. The most glaring issue is the strength in the trenches, as the defensive line simply doesn’t match up with the massive offensive lines of this league. All 4 starters must be replaced, too. Nate Hoff played well as a freshman, but went through somewhat of a ‘sophomore slump’ and will start alongside huge-frame Ralph Green. I spoke with Indiana analyst Matthew Weaver (@MB_Weaver) who noted that it has been at least 10 years since they had a serviceable pass rush. The interior line has some beef, but again, defensive end looks like the weakness of the entire roster.

In defensive coordinator Tom Allen’s 4-2-5 base scheme, the two backers will be Tegray Scales and returning starter Marcus Oliver. Two additional seniors – T.J. Simmons and Clyde Newton – have significant starting experience and the unit as a whole is the defense’s strongest. But Allen needs to find ways to get his playmakers on his field, as the 4-2-5 obviously gives more roles to defensive backs. That secondary was absolutely torched last season, finishing 127th (of 128) in Division 1. That said, the unit was extremely young and started two freshmen and two sophomores who now have a full year of starting experience and offseason growth together. Jayme Thompson transfers in from Iowa Western (via Ohio State) and will play the nickel spot. I am cautiously optimistic that the secondary will take a huge step forward this fall, but statistically the pass defense issue is as much a testament to the inefficiencies in the pass rush. As you can see from our 2015 stat box (left), Indiana was one of the most unbalanced teams in terms of offensive success and defensive failures. That is why it was common for them to score 40+ and still lose games.

OUTLOOK
Believe it or not, Indiana has done a decent job recruiting and ranks 8th in the Big Ten in our weighted average recruit index. For Kevin Wilson to return IU to bowl season for the first back-to-back appearances in 25 years, he will need to reload at QB and RB, and start to make progress on defense. Until the defensive line can stack up in the trenches, Indiana cannot break through to the upper tier of the East. An easy non-conference slate will boost the win-loss record and I expect IU to take care of business against Purdue, Rutgers, and Maryland to clinch a bowl. The Penn State and Northwestern games are swing games and I think IU will steal one of them to get to 7-5, their best record since 2007.

6. MARYLAND TERRAPINS

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Randy Edsall brought Maryland to bowls in his third and fourth seasons, but the program bottomed out last season and the 3-9 (1-7) campaign signaled the end of his time here in College Park. As a program, Maryland is in an interesting spot in terms of location and branding. They are geographically close to some recruiting hotbeds in Pennsylvania and the DMV region, areas that have been dominated by Penn State and Virginia Tech. But given those program’s respective declines from the mid-2000s, the turf may be more open than ever. In terms of branding, Maryland is the Under Armour version of Oregon. We conducted a survey of 100 FBS recruits asking them several questions on branding and uniforms; Maryland was towards the top in both “best uniforms” and “worst uniforms” which displays the love/hate with the flag-based uniforms. And before you shake this off as irrelevant data, 72% admitted that “uniforms have a great impact on my perception of a team” and 33% stated that “uniforms would be a factor in my decision process.” Oregon was the first program to attack this niche, but maybe Maryland can find effective ways to brand itself with its new added visibility in the Big Ten.

D.J. Durkin makes his head coaching debut after going back-and-forth between Harbaugh and Meyer’s staffs at Bowling Green, Stanford, Florida, and Michigan. As a first-time head coach, I like his staff moves to bring in three former FBS head coaches. Mike London (UVA), Pete Lembo (Ball State), and Scott Shafer (Syracuse) were all on board, but Shafer’s departure gave the opening for fellow 2007 Stanford coach Andy Buh to man the defense.

OFFENSE
Additionally, Durkin brought in Walt Bell from Arkansas State to lead the offense. Bell did a nice job with his high-tempo, dual-threat rushing attack, a system that seems to fit all three quarterbacks here at Maryland. It looks like Perry Hills will be the starter, as he fits the offense better and is a true dual-threat (535 yards rushing in 2015). Bell will play to his quarterback’s strengths better than the former regime, who forced the team into unnecessary passing and an FBS-worst 29 interceptions. Behind Hills in the backfield, look for a ‘running back by committee’ approach this year with Wes Brown, the speedy Ty Johnson, and Virginia Tech transfer Trey Edmunds. Brandon Ross’ explosiveness will certainly be missed here. Meanwhile, the receiving core is stocked with potential breakout players. Former blue-chip recruit D.J. Moore is the top receiver, Levern Jacobs will start in the slot, and the third spot in the rotation will be a battle between Malcolm Culmer, Taivon Jacobs, and Teldrick Morgan who led New Mexico State in receiving last year. Look for an increased emphasis on running the ball effectively, and putting the quarterbacks in less positions to fail.

Maryland has some studs on the offensive line roster, but most blue-chippers are too young to seriously contribute yet. Sophomore Damian Prince is the exception, as a former 5-star tackle who played a bit last season and is the clear #1 lineman on the team. Michael Dunn and Mike Minter are former walk-ons, but due to experience will be the early season starters in front of highly-touted young guys. The guard spots are up for grabs, and the staff rotated players around to different roles in the spring.

DEFENSE
The defense struggled last season finishing 103rd in scoring defense and 104th in pass defense. The scary thing with the pass defense issues is the fact that the two best pass rushers and three starting defensive backs all must be replaced. This is where the star-studded coaching staff needs to help rebuild. Mike London is coaching the defensive line, which features a few proven ends in Roman Braglio and Jesse Aniebonam, but has an open spot at defensive tackle.

Jermaine Carter is a proven leader at linebacker while Jalen Brooks is a probable starter alongside him. The third spot is open with the transfer of Abner Logan; Shane Cockerille looks like he can make a push for the start. His situation is pretty unique as he made the shift to linebacker from quarterback, which is an ironic contrast to previous seasons that were so injury-riddled at quarterback that linebackers were forced to fill in for emergency situations. Will Likely is the team’s most talented player, and is as effective in the return game as he is a lockdown corner. Likely averaged 18.2 yards per return (2nd nationally) and also earned All-BigTen honors on defense. Maryland is the favorite to land Alabama graduate transfer Maurice Smith, who would immediately start at the other corner spot. We will know of his decision before fall camp, but for now to be conservative we have Darnell Savage as the projected starter. The corners are stronger than the safety spots, which are an area of concern with both 2015 starters gone. Durkin was able to turn Michigan’s defense into a top unit, and even registered three shutouts in a row last season. The roster is nowhere near as talented as Michigan’s, however there are enough pieces in place to see some noted progress. I think it’s safe to assume they will climb up from below the #100 mark in those defensive categories.

OUTLOOK
Look for Maryland to start 4-0 against an easy non-conference slate and Purdue, but the Big Ten schedule hits hard. They will need to beat 2 of the 3 swing games against Rutgers, Indiana, and Minnesota – or pull some upsets – to reach bowl season in Durkin’s debut. Indiana looks like the clear #5 team in the East, while Maryland and Rutgers are undergoing very similar transitions. While the long-term effects of each hire are unknown, here in year 1, I feel more comfortable with Maryland due to the coaching staff that Durkin has assembled around him. An underrated facet of the coaching carousel is that former coordinators and first-time head coaches have a bit of a learning curve, but by bringing in such a veteran staff I feel that the transition for Durkin will be more seamless than that for Ash. Plus, Maryland draws auto-win Purdue from the West, so they essentially have a one game lead on Rutgers already.

7. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

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The 1869 National Champions are undergoing another major transition just two seasons after moving from the Big East to the American to the Big Ten. Ten seasons ago, Rutgers knocked off #3 Louisville and was the center of the college football world, but slowly that peak has disintegrated and finally hit rock bottom last year with a 4-8 season marred with off-the-field issues. Kyle Flood is out, and Chris Ash is in. Ash is the former defensive coordinator at Ohio State, and brings Big Ten familiarity with him to Rutgers, as the program attempts to take advantage of its fertile recruiting turf and become a Big Ten brand. Currently buried in one America’s toughest divisions, Ash looks to inch back towards respectability and relevance.

OFFENSE
Ash brought in Drew Mehringer, a Tom Herman disciple, as his offensive coordinator. Tom Herman was the mastermind behind the 2014 national champion Ohio State offense, and then led Houston to a 12-win season capped by a New Years Six bowl win. If he does install a similar offense, it will be up-tempo, spread but power run heavy. The offensive line gave up 25 sacks last season in a pro-style scheme, but hopefully the spread attack will alleviate that issue. Four starters return up front, led by Chris Muller and Dorian Miller, our two top rated Rutgers offensive linemen. Development in the trenches will go a long way in determining the offensive success in year 1.

The backfield tandem of Josh Hicks and Robert Martin combined to rush for 1437 yards and 10 touchdowns last fall, and together they represent the strongest unit on the offense. Look for the two to split carries again in 2016. Janarion Grant is the best playmaker on the team, although most of that has been seen in the return game. Based on what we have seen from him there, we project Grant to be the #1 receiver and it will be imperative to get him several touches and to stretch the field both horizontally and vertically. Andre Patton had 34 receptions last year and looks like the #2 receiver, as Carlton Agudosi and Vance Matthews will be in the rotation. Nick Arcidiacono is a returning starter at tight end, and yes, you recognize that last name as he is cousins with Ryan Arcidiacono, Villanova’s March Madness hero.

The quarterback spot is an open battle that will stretch into fall camp, mostly because returning starter Chris Laviano does not fit the preferred mold for this system. Laviano, and Hayden Rettig for that matter, lack the dual-threat attributes of former Mehringer quarterback Greg Ward. I talked with Rutgers analyst Sam Hellman (@SamHellmanScout) who explained that Laviano is the slight favorite for the starting job. He mentioned that while Laviano is no Braxton Miller, he can run enough to keep the defense honest and make the zone read somewhat effective. Quarterback efficiency and ball security will go a long way in year one of the offensive transition.

DEFENSE
Rutgers was ripped apart on defense last year, and there is no way to sugarcoat it. They finished 104th in scoring defense (35 points per game), 119th in pass defense, and 112th in total defense. The defensive line is the strongpoint of the entire roster, headlined by a pair of blue-chip recruits that were part of Kyle Flood’s first class – the one that wanted to ‘lock down the Jersey border.’ Yes, you hear that sentiment every season from Rutgers fans, but this was the class that actually succeeded in doing so. Darius Hamilton was a 5-star defensive tackle, while Quanzell Lambert was a 4-star end. Both will be stars up front and will be joined by returning starter Sebastian Joseph.

After being torched last season, all 4 starters return to the secondary, creating a classic case of the “returning starters” stat holding less value than usual. However, this time the unit will be joined by Ross Taylor-Douglas, a grad transfer from Michigan that will start at one of the corners. Kiy Hester is a former blue-chipper who will play the free safety spot while returning interception leader Anthony Cioffi will be the strong safety.

For all of the experience in the other two levels of the defense, the linebackers are new after all three starters and leading tacklers depart. Ash looks to use Najee Clayton in the same role that Darron Lee excelled in at Ohio State, while Deonte Roberts will start at the weakside. The middle linebacker spot is a bit less set in stone, but T.J. Taylor looks like the likely starter. Overall the defense can’t get any worse, and given the strength in the trenches, there is room for optimism with the defensive-minded Ash in town.

OUTLOOK
Especially in the Big Ten East, there is a long way to go for Rutgers. The reasons for excitement are legit; the new staff has proven success at other spots, and looks to build an identity which is something that has been missing here. The recruiting grounds are stocked with talent, but Rutgers needs to compete with the league’s elite before pushing them out of North Jersey. First things first, establish an identity on both sides of the ball, and grow together as a young coaching staff. An attention-grabbing upset of one of the East Division powers would be huge in recruiting.