2016 Big 12 Preview

BRETT CIANCIA, ZACH KINDER, ZACH SEPANIK
August 1st, 2016

1. OKLAHOMA SOONERS

ZACH SEPANIK
Big 12 Writer

Order was restored in Norman last season as the Oklahoma Sooners captured their ninth Big 12 conference title and earned a spot in the College Football Playoff. Repeating as a conference champion is never easy, but with the weapons Bob Stoops has returning, it’s hard to find a reason the Sooners won’t.

OU was consistently excellent last year as just three of its 13 contests were decided by one possession. On top of that, only five were decided by less than 20 points. Even with the talent coming back, there was an exodus of playmakers leaving plenty of holes to fill if the Sooners hope to replicate that dominance.

Perhaps the greatest void is at wide receiver after go-to offensive weapon Sterling Shepard was selected 40th overall by the New York Giants in the 2016 NFL Draft. In addition, the pass rush has perhaps the biggest needs as the Sooners must replace five of their top six linebackers (those five combined for 37 tackles for loss, 12 sacks and 11 passes defensed).

OFFENSE
Lincoln Riley begins year two of his reign as offensive coordinator and he has potentially the best backfield in the nation to work with as player strengths perfectly align with scheme.

Baker Mayfield runs the show at quarterback. He enters the season as one of the top contenders for the Heisman Trophy. Even with Riley’s pass-first approach, Mayfield was able to healthily incorporate bruising backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. On first downs in 2015, Mayfield completed 77 percent of his passes, while Mixon averaged 7.3 yards per carry and Perine averaged 6.5. Because of the Sooners three-headed monster, defenses are forced to respect the run, but also deal with Mayfield’s quick decision-making, forcing them to cover sideline-to-sideline.

No Shepard means Dede Westbrook slides into the No.1 slot and he has the tools to be great. Beyond Westbrook, however, there is a lot of average, inexperienced wideouts with none accumulating more than 20 receptions last season. Geno Lewis and Jarvis Baxter need to raise their games, while A.D. Miller, Jeffery Mead and Jordan Smallwood must develop a role. One thing we do know is Mayfield elevates the play of everyone around him, so there’s hope.

Up front, four players who combined for 33 of the 65 starts on the offensive line are gone, although three starters return. Jonathan Alvarez will orchestrate the Sooners attack from center, while Orlando Brown (LT - 6’8, 357) and Dru Samia (RT - 6’4, 274) bring great size at the tackle positions. Two JUCO transfers, Ashton Julious and Ben Powers, add depth to the line. Powers finished the spring as the first-string right guard. Julious figures to backup redshirt freshman Cody Ford at left guard. It will be a young, yet experienced group.

If the front can open a few holes, Perine and Mixon can do serious damage, while just enough protection for Mayfield means he can air it out, or use his legs to perform one of his miraculous scrambling acts. Either way, points should not be hard to come by for the Sooners as Riley continues to instill his offensive genius.

DEFENSE
In what is basically a 3-3-5 system, defensive coordinator Mike Stoops prefers speed over size. That caused OU to be one of the nation’s worst in short-yardage situations last year, but that was really the only weakness as far as rushing or passing defense is concerned.

The line is once again stacked. Charles Walker and Matt Dimon serve as the anchors. The two combined for 17 tackles for loss a year ago. Walker figures to step into the defensive end spot, leaving Dimon and Matthew Romar at the tackles. Young ends D.J. Ward and Marquise Overton are poised for breakout seasons, while Jordan Wade should see plenty of action up front as well.

With a solid line, run defense shouldn’t be much of a concern for the second level, where there are more questions than answers. Jordan Evans is the only sure thing. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and Tay Evans will likely round out the linebackers starting unit, but the two combined for only 12.5 tackles and a single sack last year so there isn’t quality game experience. That leaves Jordan Evans as the focal point for opposing teams to gameplan around, which could hamper the Sooners pass rush. Blue-chip redshirt freshman Ricky DeBerry, as well as JUCO transfers Kapri Doucet and Emmanuel Beal could very easily creep into distinct roles, especially if their blitz efforts shine.

In the secondary, Jordan Thomas was arrested in late June and could face charges of interference, public intoxication and assault and battery. It was not his first off-the-field incident, as Thomas also has been suspended twice for undisclosed team violations during his time with the program. He started 11 games a year ago and finished with 46 tackles and five interceptions to earn All-Big 12 second-team honors.

The verdict on Thomas will be a huge piece for a group that already lost ballhawk Zack Sanchez. Dakota Austin will do his best to fill the shoes Sanchez left, but if something happens to Thomas, that leaves things up to P.J. Mbanasor and Stanvon Taylor who have, at most, gotten their feet wet. Meanwhile, the safety positions are as proven as any in the country. Ahmad Thomas and Steven Parker have shutdown ability, while sophomores Kahlil Haughton, Will Sunderland and Prentice McKinney each come with an impressive pedigree.

If the pass rush can develop, OU’s defensive results will be quite similar to last season. And they always say— defense wins championships.

OUTLOOK
For as potent and favored a team as OU, it is crazy to think about the lack of depth behind their starting QB. Keeping Mayfield healthy at all costs will be the most important thing Stoops and the Sooners do, because if he were to go down, either true freshman Austin Kendall or redshirt freshman walk-on Connor McGinnis would step in.

Austin Seibert is a force in the special teams game. His punts were unreturnable as a freshman, and his leg makes any field goal attempt reasonable. Overall, Seibert’s efficiency makes the field position battle tilt extensively in the Sooners favor.

With two very tough non-conference contests (Houston at NRG Stadium, Ohio State), and a trip to Fort Worth to face TCU sandwiched between the Buckeyes and the Red River Showdown, OU’s schedule is front-heavy. A lot will be determined for the Sooners six weeks into the season.

If Mayfield stays healthy, the receiving corps develops, and a pass rush is found, a 10th conference crown will be in the cards, and perhaps a deep College Football Playoff run.

2. TCU HORNED FROGS

ZACH KINDER
BIG 12 Writer

Follow @zachkinder

Few things in life are as consistent as a Gary Patterson defense, and the 2015-16 season was no different. Despite question marks, depth issues and inexperience, Patterson’s club finished fourth in the conference in total defense while relying on a bevy of freshmen. One of those freshmen, Mike Freeze, shined in preseason practice before being named starter at middle linebacker. Shortly in the season, Freeze excused himself for personal reasons and never rejoined the Horned Frogs, ultimately transferring in the offseason. If inexperience and depth weren’t enough, TCU suffered the injury bug, which claimed four starters, including James McFarland (who will be remembered for his heroics against Ole Miss in the Chick-fil-a Bowl) and Sammy Douglas. Trevone Boykin lived up to the Heisman hype early in the season before also sustaining an injury late in the season against Oklahoma State. The injury before heading into Norman derailed the rest of the season. Boykin never fully recovered and was suspended prior to the Alamo Bowl.

TCU had struggled in the Big 12 during its early tenure, but the installation of a new offensive system rejuvenated the Horned Frogs, who improved to 23-3 over the past two seasons, including bowl wins over Ole Miss and Oregon, the latter in dramatic comeback fashion. TCU was robbed of a potential playoff run in 2014 and injuries stunted the Horned Frogs in 2015, but TCU has emerged as an annual Big 12 contender and the team to watch possibly dethrone Oklahoma in 2016.

OFFENSE
In order to make a run in the conference this season, TCU will have to address some glaring holes in the offense, particularly under center and along the offensive line. And the loss of receiver Josh Doctson cannot be overstated. Kenny Hill, the transfer from A&M, was voted preseason newcomer of the year, but has yet to secure the starting role. Also vying for the position is sophomore Foster Sawyer, who left much to be desired in a limited role a year ago. The offensive line, one of the conference’s more experienced in 2015, returns Joseph Noteboom, who moved from right to left tackle. Aviante Collins fills Noteboom’s slot at right tackle. Collins has 23 career starts, but only started once during the past two seasons and missed most of 2015 with an injury. Austin Schlottmann has the important role of replacing All-Conference center Joey Hunt. Guards Matt Pryor and Patrick Morris combine for four total starts (all by Pryor).

Kyle Hicks and Shaun Nixon were valuable backfield pieces in relief of the departed Aaron Green, but Nixon will miss the season with an undisclosed injury. The injury opens an opportunity for Michigan transfer and former 5-star Derrick Green, who will be eligible to play this fall, and incoming freshman Darius Anderson. TCU signed a pair of highly regarded JUCO receivers, Taj Williams and Ryan Parker, to soften the blow of losing Doctson, and sophomore KaVontae Turpin has a chance to be something special. While Williams is already on campus, Parker is not listed on the official roster at the moment. Deante Gray missed the 2015 season but had a solid campaign in 2014 and returns this season in the starting lineup.

The Big 12 learned not to doubt Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie the hard way in 2014 when they transformed Boykin into a Heisman contender, and it would be perilous to do so again with Kenny Hill.

DEFENSE
As many pieces as TCU has ready on offense, it’s the defense that could shine this season. Relying on inexperience proved helpful for Patterson, who returns a solid group, particularly at linebacker, where depth is anything but an issue. The defensive line returns All-Conference defensive end Josh Carraway and James McFarland along with Nebraska transfer Aaron Curry. Breylin Mitchell is the new face on the defensive line, earning the spot over Chris Bradley who started nine games in 2015. Keep an eye on Mitchell throughout the season; Patterson gave him the nod over an experienced starter for a reason. Montrell Wilson earned the nod at middle linebacker over Ty Summers. Summers finished in the running for Defensive Freshman of the Year and had 23 stops in the monsoon game vs. Baylor. Travin Howard, who led the team in tackles, also returns. Behind him is Sammy Douglas who is returning from injury.

Nick Orr and Ranthony Texada return to pace one of the conference’s top secondaries. Texada was a star in the making, but suffered an injury of his own and missed most of this past season. Backing up Orr is Kenny Iioka, who was listed as the starter prior to his own injury. Jeff Gladney rounds out the corner position and is the lone freshman starter on the defense. Denzel Johnson led the team in tackles for loss from the safety position a year ago and also returns opposite JUCO transfer Markell Simmons. Simmons two PICK SIXES at Pima Community College and was rated the No. 4 JUCO corner before signing with TCU.

OUTLOOK
It’s a dangerous idea to bet against an experienced Gary Patterson defense, and this defense is loaded with both youth and talent. There are plenty of skilled players ready to step in should the injury bug show its ugly face again this season. It’s equally as dangerous to bet against Meacham and Cumbie transforming a quarterback into something special. During Hill’s brief time at Texas A&M, he showed remarkable skill. Boykin showed significantly less skill prior to Meacham and Cumbie’s arrival.

TCU gets an early test against a talented Arkansas team in Fort Worth during week 2. It should provide an early litmus test before hosting Oklahoma three weeks later. TCU’s schedule includes road games at West Virginia, Baylor and Texas, but plays out remarkably in their favor. Aside from hosting Texas Tech after getting back from Morgantown, TCU avoids playing any of the conference elite back to back and gets its two biggest threats in Fort Worth (OU and OSU). A late season contest in Austin should provide for some good TV. The Horned Frogs have blown out the Longhorns in each of the past two seasons, but this is potentially the most loaded and talented Longhorn team in recent memory. Keep an eye on Texas, but don’t let your gaze drift too far from TCU. A second conference title is certainly within its grasp.

3. OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS

ZACH KINDER
BIG 12 Writer

Follow @zachkinder

Following a rough rebuilding year in 2014, Oklahoma State seemingly limped into this past season. Despite the offseason dismissal of the highly athletic (and now NFL return man) Tyreek Hill, the Cowboys weren’t for lack of firepower. The backfield welcomed JUCO All-American Chris Carson, who spurned Georgia for Stillwater, and had the conference’s deepest receiver corps. A deeper and more experienced offensive line looked ready to improve on a dreadful campaign in 2014, which was a large reason the offense had stalled much of that season.

Improvements came slowly, though. Gundy’s Cowboys won each of their first 10 games, but only five came by more than a touchdown. Twice in the nonconference OSU looked less than impressive, and during conference play had to hold off Texas and come back against Kansas State, West Virginia, Texas Tech and Iowa State. A blowout of TCU looked to be a turning point for the Cowboys (the only team to beat TCU with starting quarterback Trevone Boykin) heading into the toughest part of the schedule. However, a trap game at Iowa State nearly tripped up Oklahoma State before hosting Baylor. The Cowboys allowed two long touchdowns early against Baylor and the Cowboys never led a quarter of play after in blowout losses to OU and Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl.

OFFENSE
The season ending provided tough lessons for the Cowboys to learn, starting with the growth it needs to see along the offensive line. With all five linemen returning this season combining for nearly 100 starts, it is one of the conference’s most experienced. Added experience didn’t show itself much a season ago, but will be necessary if Oklahoma State hopes to make its run toward a conference title this season.

Although Gundy runs a more balanced offense behind a stable of running backs (more on them later), the line should get plenty of help from Mason Rudolph (3770 yds, 21 TDs), entering his second full season as starter, and yet another deep crew of receivers. James Washington (1087 yds, 10 TDs) exploded onto the scene in 2014 and delivered with a stellar sophomore season. Behind him are returning starters Marcell Ateman (766 yds) and Jhajuan Seales (323 yds). Jalen McCleskey, Austin Hays and Chris Lacy are also coming off strong seasons. Seales developed a bit of a drop problem during the 2015 campaign, but has as much talent as any receiver in the conference. More pressure should be on Rudolph this coming season thanks to the departure of senior leader JW Walsh (787 yds 13 TDs passing; 359 yds, 13 TDs rushing), who played significant minutes throughout the season and accounted for at least one touchdown in each game. In the backfield, a steady diet of Carson (517 yds, 4 TDs) and Rennie Childs should make up for the loss of Raymond Taylor, which isn’t saying much about a rush offense than ranked No. 113. But the buzz has been about the highly-touted transfer from Stanford. Son of the former Oklahoma State standout, Heisman winner and NFL Hall of Fame running back, Barry J. Sanders will be a welcome addition to the Cowboys this spring. Although he played in a limited role behind Heisman runner-up Christian McCaffrey in Palo Alto, he was every bit the playmaker Oklahoma State will need him to be. For video evidence, click here.

The Cowboys also return both players at Gundy’s famous “Cowboy back” position, a hybrid tight end/fullback. Without a doubt, the offensive line will be key this season for Oklahoma State. If the past two seasons are any indication, there should be real concerns going into the season.

DEFENSE
Defensively, many Cowboy faithful may be tempted to hit the panic button following the loss of fan favorites Emmanuel Ogbah to the NFL and Jimmy Bean, Ryan Simmons and Kevin Peterson to graduation. Seth Jacobs also made the decision to hang up his cleats for health reasons. All of them will be missed, but there’s reason to be hopeful.

Seven starters return, including a loaded secondary where the Cowboys struggled most a season ago. Ashton Lampkin and Jordan Sterns lead the talented group that includes part-time starter Ramon Richards and returning starter Tre Flowers. Vincent Taylor returns to anchor the unit’s front seven, along with Jordan Burton and Chad Whitener. All three were All-Big 12 honorable mention a season ago. Whitener replaced Simmons at middle linebacker early in the season and finished third on the team in tackles. Replacing Bean and Ogbah at defensive end are Jordan Brailford and Jarrell Owens. Both received significant playing time when Bean tore his ACL in the latter half of the season. Brailford finished second on the team in quarterback hurries with three. Owens added two more. Former JUCO All-American tackle Motekai Maile also returns up front.

While there are some big shoes to fill this season, there’s little reason to expect a significant drop off. The unit’s primary goal will be to improve upon a scoring defense that finished No. 88 a season ago, thanks in part to allowing 440 yards of offense per game. The scoring defense is partly skewed due to blowouts in the season’s final three games. Another stat of note was the Cowboy’s third down defense. Largely evident during games vs. Baylor and Oklahoma, Oklahoma State allowed teams to convert on 42 percent of its third downs.

OUTLOOK
While there are some questions marks for the Cowboys this upcoming season, the pieces are all there for another run at the conference title. If the offensive line can improve enough to give Rudolph time to go through his progressions in the pocket, there is a plethora of playmakers ready to step up. The same goes for opening holes for backs. Sanders adds a new element to Gundy’s offense, and it should be interesting to see how he develops throughout the season. While the defense lost some of its primary contributors from a season ago, the players stepping into their roles showed plenty of ability.

A nonconference home matchup with Pitt on Sept. 17 will be the Cowboys first obstacle to a perfect season. The Panthers aggressive defense will test the offensive line’s growth out the gate behind Ejuan Price (11.5 sacks in 2015) and Jordan Whitehead. The defense will also get a healthy dose of Qadree Ollison and, potentially, James Conner (ACC Player of the Year in 2014). The Cowboys were fortunate enough to get TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma at home in 2015, which means all three will be road contests in 2016. Baylor is in a state of disrepair following an offseason investigation, the firing of head coach Art Briles and the loss of many recruits. Baylor also lost plenty of talent from this past season’s squad. Oklahoma State will head to Waco just one week after facing Pitt, and closes the season on consecutive road games at TCU and Oklahoma.

An unfavorable schedule might mean a step back for the Cowboys this season in terms of wins, but a perfect season isn’t out of question with improvements in specific areas.

4. TEXAS LONGHORNS

ZACH SEPANIK
Big 12 Writer

Follow @zachsepanik

The narrative seems to gain more steam each and every year in Austin. Are the Texas Longhorns back? Will Charlie Strong get the program to the level it used to be?

After opening last season with a 38-3 drubbing at the hands of Notre Dame, Strong demoted offensive co-coordinators Joe Wickline and Shawn Watson, promoting receivers coach Jay Norvell to the play-calling chair. None are with Texas in 2016 because of the dramatic offensive inconsistency.

So Strong went and picked his guy. Sterlin Gilbert takes over the reigns as offensive coordinator, bringing a much-needed identity from Tulsa — the spread.

A lineup that was filled with freshmen and sophomores a year ago gains another year of experience. The upside they flashed at times could point to a tremendous sign that the good just might become great.

Restoring the Longhorns back to national prominence was not an overnight task and Strong has them at its doorstep with his pieces in place. The season opener, September 4 versus Notre Dame, will go a long way in revealing the path Texas will take in 2016.

OFFENSE
Tyrone Swoopes and Jerrod Heard are back at the quarterback position. Swoopes is more efficient as a runner, while Heard throws a better ball. Neither shined last season, although both have shown plenty of potential. With all that said, freshman Shane Buechele will likely serve as the Longhorns starter. He dazzled in the spring game and has the tools to best fit the identity Texas is hoping to create.

In the rushing attack, Swoopes led the Longhorns last season with 12 touchdowns, while Heard racked up the most yards (736). D’Onta Foreman averaged 7.2 yards per carry and Chris Warren III averaged 6.6. The two combined to accumulate over 1,000 yards and will attempt to replace the explosiveness Johnathan Gray brought to the table.

On the outside, the receiving corps has a ton of options. John Burt enters his sophomore campaign after averaging 8.8 yards per target as a true freshman. Armanti Foreman is the other big-play threat and Jacorey Warrick figures to step-in at slot receiver. Also keep an eye on freshman Collin Johnson. At tight end, Caleb Bluiett and Andrew Beck provide balance to the rushing and passing games. The overall goal for the Longhorns is to distribute the ball to as many different players as possible.

The talent at skill positions can adjust to a new scheme, but the real questions begin when the line must adjust to new assignments and duties. Four players return with starting experience. Connor Williams and Kent Perkins lock down the left and right tackles, respectively. The two have the most career starts up front. Patrick Vahe started 10 games at right guard last season as a true freshman and should anchor that spot once again. Left guard and center are where things get interesting. Brandon Hodges, a JUCO transfer, leads the depth chart at left guard, while Zach Shackelford, a freshman, has the edge at center.

It’s not very often you see a freshman snapping to a freshman (Shackelford to Buechele), especially at a big-time program like Texas. Perhaps it is the right formula for Strong and the Longhorns as they search for consistency through development of the spread.

DEFENSE
If you’re an offense in the Big 12, watch out. The Texas defense is another year older, which means they are another year wiser. And defensive coordinator Vance Bedford has many of the same building blocks to rectify last year’s drop-off in performance.

The top three lineman are back (and seven of the top 10). However, put the newfound experience aside and Texas was startlingly bad against the run last year. They gave up 92 rushes of 10-plus yards, 114th in the nation. In order to improve, it will start with the trio of Naashon Hughes, Paul Boyette Jr., and Poona Ford. They combined for 23 tackles for loss up front. Look for Breckyn Hager, Charles Omenihu and Bryce Cottrell to shore up the defensive end spots and provide balance.

At linebacker, four of the five that saw playing time in 2015 return. Even with the loss of ace blitzer Peter Jinkens, the leading tackler last season, blue-chip sophomore Malik Jefferson has the motor to wreak havoc. Anthony Wheeler will inherit the starting weakside linebacker role and combine with Jefferson to form a solid 1-2 punch at the second level. Players like Timothy Cole and Edwin Freeman should see their roles increase as well.

With all the playmakers already in place, the most exciting unit on the Longhorns defense just might be the secondary, where Strong welcomes back 10 of 11 defensive backs. Sophomore cornerbacks Holton Hill, Davonte Davis and Kris Boyd will ease the pain of losing the top corner from last season, Duke Thomas. At safety, Dylan Haines, DeShon Elliott, P.J. Locke, Jason Hall and John Bonney give the Longhorns outstanding depth, forming one of the most exciting secondaries in the nation.

The pass defense will be dynamic. If the rush defense can carry its load, the Longhorns could very well get back to showcasing Strong’s signature of defensive aggressiveness and brute strength.

OUTLOOK
All signs point to turning the corner in Austin. What the Longhorns lacked in experience last season, they gain in returning starters. Developing an identity on offense will also go a long way in maintaining some form of consistency and sticking to a gameplan.

Yet, it is all about the figurative clock; the race against time. Strong is 11-14 at the helm of the Longhorns, the worst start to a Texas head coach’s tenure since Dana Bible went 3-14-1 in 1937-38.
His project is unfolding nicely and as long as the clock doesn’t strike midnight, Strong will have the Longhorns back in the national spotlight within two years, if not this year. Hook ‘Em!

5. BAYLOR BEARS

ZACH KINDER
Big 12 Writer

Follow @zachkinder

When Art Briles arrived in Waco in 2008 fresh off several successful seasons with Houston, Baylor was the Big 12 cellar dweller. The Bears were the laughingstock of the conference, winning only a handful of conference games since joining the league at its inception in 1996. Briles’ brilliantly developed offensive gameplan along with the commitment of Robert Griffin III transformed the Bears. Griffin brought home the Heisman in 2011 and Baylor claimed its first conference title in 2012.

Fast forward to 2016. Baylor is now the Big 12’s black eye. Briles and university president Ken Starr were fired amid investigation of a sexual assault cover-up that spanned both the university and local police. The scandal cost interim coach Jim Grobe much of the highly-touted incoming recruiting class, many of whom would likely have been called on to fill immediate needs. News didn’t get much better as the investigation revealed some of the findings. Backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham, supposedly escaping the scandal, transferred out. Third string quarterback and converted wide receiver Chris Johnson announced his decision to transfer earlier in the season, leaving the cupboard bare behind returning starter Seth Russell. In an effort to control the situation, Grobe announced it was his decision to keep Briles’ staff, many of who were implicated in the investigation. His efforts only led to more questions about the program’s integrity and Grobe’s questionable decision making.

This story, along with conference expansion, will follow Baylor and the Big 12 throughout the season. Any lingering effects to players may be seen on the field, which could be disastrous in a competitive league.

OFFENSE
The Bears aren’t for lack of playmakers at skill positions. Two-time All Big 12 and former freshman All-American running back Shock Linwood returns to the backfield along with Johnny Jefferson, who carried Baylor to a win over North Carolina in the Citrus Bowl (299 yards, 3 TDs) in place of an injured Linwood. KD Cannon, Chris Platt and Lynx Hawthorne will stretch opposing secondaries with big-play ability, and Cannon is on the short list of Biletnikoff hopefuls after posting 1030 yards and 8 touchdowns a year ago. With Corey Coleman and Jay Lee gone, this is Cannon’s ground to lead in his third year.

Plays were easy to come by behind one of the conference’s best offensive lines opening massive holes in 2015, but only Kyle Fuller returns to the unit this season. Fuller might be the conference’s best center, but the rest of the line combines for just one career start and left tackle Dom Desouza has never played a down of Division 1 football. Despite the lack of starting experience, Baylor fans should be able to relax a little. Patrick Lawrence (RT), Rami Hammad (RG) and Blake Blackmar (LG) all played in every game a season ago. Bigger questions rest under center, where Seth Russell returns from a serious neck injury he suffered early in 2015. Not only is it possible to reinjure his neck, but the mental aspect of getting hit and suffering major neck damage may plague Russell all season. Behind him the situation is dire. Zach Bennema is a second-year walk-on and Zach Smith is a first-year quarterback who chose Baylor over Texas and SMU.

DEFENSE
Barring an injury to Russell, Baylor might be able to maintain Briles’ offensive choreography, which has a tendency to lead to video game-like numbers. The defense, however, faces serious questions.

The entire defensive line, a dominant force in the conference the past two seasons, is gone. Shawn Oakman is facing sexual assault charges following his graduation and Co-Defensive Player of the Year Andrew Billings turned pro. Cornerback Xavien Howard also opted to turn pro following the season, leaving Orion Steward, a three-year starter to take over leadership of the group. Howard’s replacement is redshirt freshman Jameson Houston, who hasn’t played a down in collegiate football to date. Houston’s spot isn’t guaranteed and he hasn’t garnered the rave reviews you’d hope to see for a freshman starter in the Big 12. Houston would join returning starter Ryan Reid at corner, and Travon Blanchard also returns at nickel. Departing safety Terrell Burt was made famous when Kirk Herbstreit wrongly accused him of faking an injury in the fourth quarter against Oklahoma. His replacement, Chance Waz, saw significant playing time during 2015 and should plug in as starter seamlessly.

A lot of pressure will be on the inexperienced front seven (two new starters at linebacker) against the Big 12’s interestingly talented run games, particularly Oklahoma and Texas. There are also some depth concerns throughout. Baylor finished 2015 allowing nearly 400 yards/game and more than 5 yards/play. It will need fresh faces to produce results early and often and stay mentally sharp in light of the university investigation if it hopes to maintain its new winning standard.

OUTLOOK
Baylor opens the season in typical fashion: hosting lowly Northwestern State. While normally an uneventful blowout, Grobe could use the opportunity get a feel for the team’s poise and mental sharpness. SMU and Rice, on the road, follow before conference play begins. Baylor will be thrown into the fire out the gate in conference, hosting a hungry Oklahoma State team. With two bye weeks and games vs. Kansas and Iowa State, Baylor could walk into Darrell K Royal Stadium a pleasant 5-1. Then the Bears begin a tough stretch that includes games against TCU and at Oklahoma and ends with a contest at West Virginia, where Baylor hasn’t won since the Mountaineers joined the conference.

An injury or two could send the Bears reeling, especially with a tough stretch late in the season. However, a cohesive effort from Russell and company paired with a solid defense could have the Bears once again in the top half of the league. Before the scandal, coaching change, and mass transfer exodus, we rated Baylor more in the 2nd/3rd/4th range, but now they check in at 5th behind a Texas team that is finally ready to take a major step forward.

6. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS

ZACH SEPANIK
Big 12 Writer

Follow @zachsepanik

Talk about Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Last season, the West Virginia Mountaineers transformed from Jekyll into Hyde and back. They played like a top-20 team or better in September and November, beating teams they should and doing so convincingly.

Then October happened. WVU got whipped by Oklahoma and lost the heart of its defense in safety Karl Joseph, leading to the domino effect. After setting the bar high, the Mountaineers failed to clear it as a 3-0 start quickly turned into a 3-4 mark.

Athleticism has always been a forte of Dana Holgorsen coached teams as players must keep up with his tempo. Once again, he has the pieces in place to make something special happen in Morgantown, but the brutal travel the Mountaineers face in the Big 12 illuminates issues such as consistency and staying healthy.

As always, the offense should be explosive. Not having running back Wendell Smallwood, who rushed for 1,519 yards a year ago, creates new opportunities and the players that will step in have experience. Meanwhile, the defense is a whole different story and we’ll get to that.

OFFENSE
There is no doubt the Mountaineers produce big plays. However, last season WVU struggled late, whether it was in drives or games. I would guess that falls on the shoulders of the quarterback and Skyler Howard doesn’t get off easy here. In the first 45 minutes of contests, Howard produced a completion rate of 58 percent and an interception rate of 3.1 percent. Compare that to his performance in the fourth quarter (41 percent and 4.9 percent) and you can sense a trend.

That led to stalling out in opposition territory, or not taking off to begin with. When the Mountaineers did stall, they settled for field goals, as Josh Lambert was called upon 28 times.

If Holgorsen’s offensive attack is to improve, Howard must step up and there has to be efficient contributions because efficiency is what the Mountaineers’ key contributors from a year ago provided. Smallwood gained at least five yards on 51 percent of his carries. Meanwhile, inside receiver Jordan Thompson led 11 WVU players targeted by at least nine passes with a 60 percent success rate. Neither are back.

Rushel Shell will see the bulk of carries out of the backfield and JUCO transfer Justin Crawford should make an immediate impact. Keep an eye on true freshmen Kennedy McKoy and Martell Pettaway as each looks to carve out a niche.

In the receiving corps, the top three wideouts are back in Shelton Gibson, Daikiel Shorts, Jr., and Jovon Durante. At inside receiver, Devonte Mathis complements Shorts, while guys like Ka’Raun White and Gary Jennings add flexibility outside.

Something that will be interesting to see is how Holgorsen incorporates the plethora of H-Back candidates (half-fullback, half-tight end) he has stocked up. From Michigan transfer Michael Ferns, to redshirt freshman Stone Wolfley, the ability to dump down could take some pressure off Howard.

Further help for Howard comes in the offensive line, which returns three starters and two half-starters. Tyler Orlosky is back at center with Adam Pankey locked in at left guard. The two have combined for 54 career starts. Opposite Pankey at right guard is Kyle Bosch. At tackle, Marcell Lazard and Yodny Cajuste each started six games as freshman. Cajuste slides over to left tackle to replace the departed Marquis Lucas, shaping a front that should pass a lot of tests.

A huge key for any offense is to develop a rhythm. Quick three-and-outs will not cut it for a tempo offense that is searching for efficiency. There is plenty of talent for the Mountaineers to develop a fluid offense, but how they gel is the ultimate determining factor.

DEFENSE
This is where things get interesting. Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson is known for his smashmouth, aggressive, physical style. The Mountaineers hit hard, but that has caused some attrition to the depth chart.

The line has potential. Noble Nwachukwu and Christian Brown anchor the defensive end positions, and Darrien Howard fills in at nose tackle. They were three of the top four up front for the Mountaineers last year. Outside of them, no other returning lineman recorded more than 5.5 tackles in 2015.

Let’s shift levels. That’s where it begins to get dicey. WVU’s top four linebackers and four of its top six defensive backs are no longer with the team. Pressure from the line will be huge to shadow some of the inexperience behind it.

At linebacker, 17.4 percent of the starters’ tackles a year ago were tackles for loss. The average was nearly identical (16.7 percent) for returners Al-Rasheed Benton (Mike - Middle LB), Sean Walters (Will - Weakside LB), and Xavier Preston (Sam - Strongside LB). They will be huge in blitz schemes to combat the pass, as well as plugging the gaps and stuffing the run. Justin Arndt’s playing time will increase as the backup to Preston, while Hodari Christian slots in behind Benton. From there, three true freshman and a redshirt freshman make up a thin layer of depth.

In the secondary, of the eight returnees who played last year, five are seniors and three are juniors. Then you throw in Miami transfer Antonio Crawford, who is also a senior, and you start to think experience is abundant. But what the Mountaineers are trying to replace from a uniquely active and havoc-wreaking unit is just tough to do.

Joseph had five interceptions in just four games, while corners Daryl Worley and Terrell Chestnut combined for nine picks and 23 passes broken up. Nana Kyeremeh and Rasul Douglas will attempt to fill the shoes at cornerback, while Dravon Askew-Henry and Jarrod Harper have the makings for a solid safety combo. Crawford and three JUCO transfers, including Kyzir White, will add stinginess to the unit, as White fits into the Spur mold (linebacker/safety hybrid).

Simply put, if there are any injuries, this defense could be in shambles. Playmakers jump out across the board, but when one goes down and more work is created for young, inexperienced units, it could be very difficult to maintain the hostile level Gibson strives for.

OUTLOOK
West Virginia is cooking with a fragile recipe. Going for the “home run play” on offense is risky and can wear down a team’s own defense by a lack of effectiveness. Efficiency on defense with a lack of depth can’t happen if the opponent has more big-play ability.

Howard must be a senior leader and look up the term consistency before stepping on the field. If he can truly understand the concept and rally his troops to follow, Holgorsen’s offense could actually get over the hump and stay there for a whole season.

Without so many of the pieces that made it so strong last season, the defense may not be as reliable. With a lack of depth, Gibson may have to scale back his intentions to prevent injury and maintain competitive balance with the talent he has to work with.

Most of the big boys come to Morgantown this year, so travel won’t be of much concern as in previous seasons. Finding the playmakers to earn the respect of their teammates and coaches is going to be key for a volatile squad.

7. TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Along the left column of this preview you’ll see the stat boxes that we compile every season, which are meant to visualize strengths and weaknesses of the team’s previous season. Of all 65 boxes we created, this is on the short list in terms of the largest contrast from offense to defense. Boston College and Missouri were all defense with little to no offensive production (BC lost a game 3-0). But on the other side of the spectrum are the pinball offenses such as Texas Tech and Washington State. Texas Tech scored 52 points against TCU and 53 points against Oklahoma State – and lost both games!

This severe dichotomy has put a ceiling on Texas Tech during the Kingsbury era; in his three seasons as head coach they have failed to pull off a conference winning record. The praise is worthy for the insane offensive production, but the soft defense ends up basically cancelling it out. Can the offense sustain the 45 points per game output (2nd nationally), and can the defense (3rd worst nationally) improve enough to make it count?

OFFENSE
It all starts at quarterback, where Patrick Mahomes put up video game numbers last year as a sophomore, passing for 4653 yards with a 36-15 TD-INT ratio in this trademarked air raid system. Mike Leach brought the 4-vertical spread passing attack to new heights here in 2008 as Texas Tech was on the fringe of a Big 12 title and BCS appearance. Kingsbury himself was a star quarterback under Leach, and although The Pirate set sail to the Pacific Northwest, you wouldn’t be able to determine that from the stat sheet. With Mahomes at the helm, the Red Raider attack is as potent as ever, but needs to replace leading receiver and energizer bunny Jakeem Grant.
Former JUCO-All American Derrick Willies will be the feature receiver, and will take the X spot on the outside. At the other outside spot, “Z” will be Dylan Cantrell who played with Mahomes in high school at Whitehouse (TX). Willies and Cantrell rate as our top two Texas Tech receivers, and the inside roles will be filled by Cameron Batson (H) and Ian Sadler (Y) in the slot.
It looks as though the QB-WR connections will be electric again, but there are questions along an offensive line that loses 4 starters. Baylen Brown returns at left tackle, and is a proven all-conference contender. But from there, young guys will need to emerge; look for freshman Terence Steele to lock down the right tackle spot. Losing 4 starting linemen and the starting running back means that we could see even more passing, perhaps to even approach Leach’s current Washington State output that featured the #1 passing attack, and 128th (dead last) rushing production.

DEFENSE
As mentioned, this half of the ball has serious work to do. Granted, when paired with such a high-tempo offense, it is understandable for most defensive metrics such as yards and points to be higher. But where Texas Tech needs to improve is in the efficiency stats such as 3rd down defense (125th) and red zone defense (126th). Defensive coordinator David Gibbs likes to play super aggressive, which is fine, except that you need to pull off enough turnovers to balance out the risk, and eventual long plays.
Breiden Fehoko is the star of this defense and rates in our top ten defensive linemen in the conference already as just a sophomore. He will be flanked by a former 5-star recruit Ondre Pipkins who is a grad transfer from Michigan. Gary Moore takes a defensive end spot with multiple years of spot playing time. Almost exclusively in the 4-2-5 base scheme, D’Vonta Hinton and Malik Jenkins will be the two starting linebackers.
The secondary was torched last season, finishing 127th in passing defense (268 yards allowed per game), but three starters return and with a stronger pass rush the unit can take some steps forward. Jah’Shawn Johnson leads the secondary after a strong debut, while Keenon Ward returns at the other safety spot and Justis Nelson returns to his nickel role. The phrase “it can’t get any worse” is used a lot this time of year, and fits perfectly to the Tech defense. While the yardage metrics probably won’t improve too much based on the track meet style of play, look for the efficiency stats and turnover margin as key factors for the 2016 defense’s success.

OUTLOOK
The margin between the Big 12’s middle tier of teams is razor-thin. Before the scandal and ensuing transfers, Baylor would have rated more in the 3rd/4th range, so we feel 5th is a fair spot and it is hard to drop them any lower. While depth is an issue, their starting lineup is still solid enough for a winning record. Then the debate became West Virginia or Texas Tech for the 6th spot. We value the play in the trenches very highly as a prediction indicator; WVU has the #1 offensive line in the conference while Texas Tech is rebuilding. Yes, this style of play doesn’t require as much from its line than in more pro-style attacks, but from top to bottom, full roster considered, we feel more comfortable with West Virginia in the 6th spot. Can Texas Tech surge upward, sure, if the defense makes some steps of improvement and Mahomes stays healthy, the Red Raiders have a puncher’s chance in every game on their schedule.

8. KANSAS STATE WILDCATS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

If you are new to the sport of college football, one of the most proven rules is to never underestimate 76-year old Bill Snyder. In what has become known as the gold standard of program rebuilds, he made consistent winners out of a Kansas State program that went just 3-40-1 in the 4 years before his 1989 arrival in Manhattan. That he made Kansas State a powerhouse in the 1990s and early 2000s is nothing short of a miracle. He stepped away from KSU for three years and all his hard work crumbled down – but he came back again to rebuild and brought the Wildcats to back-to-back double-digit win seasons in 2011 and 2012.

That 2012 season was when we were first snakebitten by the Snyder Magic. We launched the site in August 2012, and in our first season preview, I was a seller of Kansas State, placing them below the national consensus due to their several close (lucky) wins in 2011 that I felt would reverse. Our first follower on Twitter, K-State Marty, made sure to remind us each week of our blown pick. While we finished 2012 with the most accurate BCS previews in America, according to Stassen Accuracy who tracks the preseason publications, I’ll still never forget that pick.

OFFENSE
You’d think I’d learn my lesson here in Season 5, not to underestimate Snyder. But here I am placing the Wildcats 8th in the Big 12. The reason they are this low is on this half of the ball, an offense that simply had no excitement or big plays last season. Starting quarterback Jesse Ertz went down for the season in week one, meaning that Joe Hubener took over the offense. In the same role as Collin Klein, the 6’5 Hubener actually led the team in carries and rushing yards. Nothing game-breaking, but a steady 5 yards per carry. What was lacking was the passing attack, as he finished with just a 47.6% completion rate and more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (9). Factor in that there were no explosive, game-breaking backs or receivers, and you get a very one-dimensional offense that finished 7th in the Big 12 in points per game (29.9). In this pinball scoring league, that simply won’t cut it.

Four of the five starting linemen are gone, meaning that besides returning center Dalton Risner, the other four new guys combine for 4 career starts. Of the 64 Power 5 teams, Kansas State ranks 54th in our 5-year weighted average recruiting ranking, meaning there are less proven guys stepping in and “reloads” become “rebuilds.” This is nothing new to Bill Snyder, who hasn’t particularly recruited well, but has been a master in player development, motivating his team to get every speck of ability out of them. While the unit certainly could gel as the season unfolds, it is a major question mark on an already weak offense. They need to have a few playmakers emerge from the skill positions, or it will be another 150, 200-carry season for the quarterback.

DEFENSE
For as bland as the offense looks on paper, there are stars at each level of the defense. After missing 12 games last season, Dante Barnett is still our top rated defensive back in the Big 12, while a pair of former 4-stars lock down the corners in Cal transfer Cedric Dozier and returning starter Duke Shelly.
Elijah Lee is the leading returner in tackles (80) and interceptions (3) and is an all-conference caliber linebacker. In fact, this trio of backers all rate in our top 10 Big 12 linebackers. Up front, defensive end Jordan Willis and defensive tackle Will Geary form quite the one-two punch.
The injury bug certainly can’t hit as hard as it did last season (*knocks on wood*) so I expect significant improvements on this side of the ball. With that pass rush combined with some star power in the secondary, I think it is safe to assume KSU will climb out of the basement in pass defense (286 yards per game, 121st nationally) to get back to respectability. The scoring defense metric should also improve.

OUTLOOK

With Kansas State, I see a tough defense that returns star power and is headed for certain improvement. But offensively, I just don’t see the firepower or strength up front to keep pace with the other elite offenses in the conference. Texas Tech checks in at #7 with an absolute scoring machine led by an elite gunslinger, West Virginia (#6) has the top offensive line in the conference plus a dynamic backfield, and Baylor – despite the scandal and freshmen transfers – still has a strong starting lineup and is the 3-time defending scoring champ in Division 1 football.

Until we see some offensive improvement, I feel strong about this pick. But in the back of my mind, the EMAW ghost of 2012 is creeping back in. Pick Six Marty – go ahead and get those tweets fired up.

9. IOWA STATE CYCLONES

ZACH SEPANIK
Big 12 Writer

Follow @zachsepanik

And so the Matt Campbell era begins at Iowa State, bringing quite the expectations along with him from Toledo.

Paul Rhoads earned three bowl bids in his first four years, never winning more than seven games in a season. Then he went 8-28, leading to his firing and Campbell’s hire. In fact, the Cyclones have won more than seven games in a season just seven times in nearly 120 years.

Stars are in place and that is rarely the case in Ames. However, lack of depth poses a critical question mark for Campbell in his first season, which features a brutal road slate.

Campbell’s energy and solid recruiting chops will generate more wins in coming years than the great Cyclones fans are used to. With upgraded facilities and greater resources, Campbell should have the Cyclones turned around in no time.

OFFENSE
While at Toledo, Campbell and his offensive line coach, Tom Manning, crafted a power-based spread offense. Manning joins Campbell at Iowa State as the offensive coordinator and there are pieces he inherits to make a smooth transition with the scheme they have developed.

Sophomore running back Mike Warren is the straw that stirs the drink. He ran for 1,339 yards in his first collegiate season and his new coaches won’t be scared to give him the ball. Toledo ran more frequently than normal on standard downs, operating at a high pace while remaining physical. David Montgomery should slot in behind Warren when he needs a breath.

Handing off to Warren will be junior quarterback Joel Lanning. Since 2008, no Iowa State team has ranked better than 87th in passer rating. The reasons behind the aerial troubles have been injury and ineffectiveness. At least two quarterbacks have thrown 70-plus passes in all but one year since 2009. Ames has been a quarterback carousel, to say the least. Lanning rushed for more than 450 yards last season, so he is mobile, something Campbell likes to utilize in his offense. Georgia transfer Jacob Park and freshman Zeb Noland will battle it out for backup duties.

The other star of this offense is junior wide receiver Allen Lazard. He can flat out go up and get it. Lazard is a deep-play threat, as well as a quick strike option. Meanwhile, Dondre Daley, Trever Ryan and Carson Epps will be the beneficiaries when Lazard is double teamed.

Up front, it is all about staying healthy. Injuries forced Iowa State to start seven different lineman at least once last fall. Five are gone. Jake Campos is back, however, and he is a stalwart left tackle. The only other Cyclones offensive line member with starting experience is left guard Nick Fett (one career start). At center, Julian Good-Jones had a solid spring, while the right side of the line should feature Patrick Scoggins at guard and Jaypee Philbert Jr. at tackle.

There are a lot of “ifs.” (1) If a patched together offensive line can hold up, they give the Cyclones offense a chance. Furthermore Lazard and Warren are great. (2) If the injury bug stays away from them, the 25 points per game averaged in 2015 could be small compared with a Campbell spread offense that clicks.

DEFENSE
For defensive coordinator Jon Heacock, there is perhaps not a quicker, more disruptive player to inherit when establishing a defense than senior defensive tackle Demond Tucker. He racked up 13 tackles for loss and six sacks last season, and with the loss of Dale Pierson, becomes the anchor of the Cyclones defense.

There is no proven productivity on the line beyond Tucker. Pierre Aka will match up next to Tucker at the other defensive tackle position. On the ends, juniors and seniors comprise the rest of the “Big Uglies,” as Jhaustin Thomas, Gabe Luna, J.D. Waggoner and Darius White should form a nice rotation to get pressure on the opposing quarterback.

In the second unit, Jordan Harris leads the depth chart at middle linebacker and Willie Harvey has a firm grasp on the weakside linebacker position. Out of a pool of Jordan Harris, Brian Mills, Josh Jahlas and Jack Spreen, there should be some depth to enhance the Cyclones rushing and passing defense.
Finally, the secondary is fairly experienced with the ability to limit big plays. Against Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State in 2015, the Cyclones surrendered a 68 percent completion rate, 14.2 yards per completion, 19 touchdowns and one interception. Versus everyone else, the numbers were a lot more pleasing (55 percent completion rate, 11.5 yards per completion, nine touchdowns, four interceptions). So, ISU can at least play defense against lesser pass offenses.
Nigel Tribune and Brian Peavy lead the way at cornerback, while Jamal Wiltz and Jarnor “Jay” Jones will see plenty of action. Sliding into the nickelback position is D’Andre Payne as Campbell has liked what he has seen from the young defensive back. Last but not least, the veteran Kamari Cotton-Moya and newcomer Mike Johnson hold down the safety spots. Throw in three JUCO signees and Heacock should have some athleticism to work with.

Beside Tucker, there really isn’t anyone who stands out on a defense that was lackluster in 2015, to say the least. Heacock is a brilliant mind, however, and he’ll have to test players. There won’t necessarily need to be that much testing conducted, especially in a Big 12 conference that features several strong offensive attacks.

OUTLOOK
The Cyclones had more strong performances last season than one would think as their record was not indicative of how competitive they were. Bringing in a gem of a coach like Campbell to lead an experienced team, although one without proven playmakers (outside of Warren and Lazard), Iowa State could make a sneakingly surprising run.
The schedule is difficult and will cause confidence issues if they can’t stay in games. By mid-October, the Cyclones will have played at Iowa, TCU, Oklahoma State, and Texas, while also hosting Baylor. That’s just in the first half of the year. Welcome to Ames, Mr. Campbell!
Nonetheless, Campbell is talented. He will bring in top-50 recruiting classes. He will put out a strong product and establish his credibility. The short term is bright as there is talent and leadership to turn things around. The long term will come. Don’t sleep on this team, but don’t go all-in on them, either.

10. KANSAS JAYHAWKS

ZACH SEPANIK
Big 12 Writer

Follow @zachsepanik

The Kansas Jayhawks hit the rock chalk bottom last season going 0-12. They should win at least one game in 2016 and that will most likely be the season opener, September 3 versus Rhode Island. From there, it will be a matter of figuring everything else out.

The seven-year collapse culminated in depths so low that there is ultimately no quick road back. Now entering his second year as head coach, David Beaty inherited almost no Big 12 talent when he took over in Lawrence. There is another year of experience, but still not enough talent to take drastic steps. This job is the ultimate definition of a rebuild.

But anything will be an improvement from the product the Jayhawks put on the field last season. They were so bad among FBS teams that by many rating systems, KU would have ranked 41st in FCS. Absolutely futile!

OFFENSE
Ryan Willis is set to lead the Jayhawks offense at quarterback. After taking over in the fifth game against Baylor last season as a freshman, Willis flashed his solid pedigree, providing hope that he is the guy to stand tall in the pocket, read defenses and make quick decisions.

Out of the backfield, the Jayhawks top rusher, Ke’aun Kinner, returns for his senior campaign. Willis and backup quarterback, Montell Cozart, are the top two returning rushers after Kinner. However, two sophomores, Ryan Schadler and Taylor Martin, should develop more defined roles after a year in Beaty’s system and under new running backs coach, Tony Hull.

Young is the only way to put it when it comes to the wideouts Willis has to throw to. Leading receiver Tre’ Parmalee was as underrated a senior as it gets (comes with the territory of going winless). Steven Sims Jr., Jeremiah Booker and Tyler Patrick, all sophomores, averaged a combined 5.4 yards per target a season ago. Those numbers will have to drastically improve if there is to be any hope for a passing game.

All in all, among the 10 players targeted at least 19 times in 2015, only two are gone, so continuity could be a friend for Willis. Add former four-star Texas A&M receiver, LaQuvionte Gonzalez, who is eligible this year, and there is speed on the perimeter.

Now to the glue of the offense — the line. The bar was not high to begin with, but the Jayhawks stats from its line were better than other offensive categories. KU kept defenders out of the backfield, as evident of a 75th national ranking in stuff rate and 98th in adjusted sack rate.

Nine players started at least three games up front and six are back in the fold. From left to right, the 2016 Jayhawks blockade will feature Jordan Shelley-Smith, Jacob Bragg, Joe Gibson, D’Andre Banks and Clyde McCauley III. Another year lends to further continuity and size won’t be an issue as the six key returnees average 6’5, 305.

There is not extensive talent on the Kansas offense, but there is experience. The players are familiar with one another and that alone might provide signs of hope for the future.

DEFENSE
It was as pungently bad on the defensive side of the ball for the Jayhawks last year as it could have possibly been. They held only three opponents below 38 points, while allowing 55 or more five times. Pass defense was a major downfall, as tackles for loss by linebackers in 2015 fell from 46.5 to 14. Furthermore, defensive back passes defensed fell from 50 to 25. Atrocious!
But once again, there’s continuity. Six of the top nine linemen are back. Dorance Armstrong Jr. and Anthony Olobia lock down the ends, while sophomore Daniel Wise and D.J. Williams anchor the defensive tackle and nose tackle positions, respectively. Damani Mosby and Jacky Dezir should see plenty of action up front as well.

KU also has its top three linebackers returning to the mix. Marcquis Roberts and Joe Dineen Jr. accounted for 17.9 percent of the Jayhawks tackles last season and combined for 10 tackles for loss. Courtney Arnick, Cameron Rosser and Osaze Ogbebor figure to contribute extensively in backup roles. Throw in the jewel of the 2016 recruiting class, Maciah Long, and linebacker is the least of concerns for defensive coordinator Clint Bowen.

The pass defense was extremely weak last year, but the secondary welcomes 10 of its top 11 defensive backs into the shuffle. 11 DB’s recorded at least 7.5 tackles in 2015, but only three played in all 12 games. To throw gasoline on the fire, KU surrendered a 157.7 passer rating. You can’t just “Rock Chalk Jayhawk” that up to inexperience.

Anthony “Fish” Smithson, the Jayhawks leading tackler a year ago, is as good as it gets at safety. At nickelback, Tevin Shaw brings a physical presence, and Tyrone Miller Jr. survived as a freshman cornerback against elite Big 12 receivers. He will only progress in 2016. Derrick Neal and Brandon Stewart round out the back end of the KU defense.

OUTLOOK
The raw, freshman talent from last year’s roster has morphed into experienced sophomores thanks to being thrown right into the fire from day one. At all levels, continuity abounds and there is added depth with JUCO transfers and Beaty’s recruits.There’s obviously room for improvement and Kansas should see that in 2016. But the hole is so deep, it won’t be very noticeable, unless you are looking under a high power magnifying glass.

Since topping Iowa State to begin conference play in 2009, KU has gone 3-57 in Big 12 play. Beaty has the energy and frame of mind to keep the Jayhawks pushing forward. However, it can’t come at the mindset or belief that things can’t get worse. Focusing on getting better, every coach’s cliche, is the ultimate of what Kansas must work toward.