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2016 SEC Eastern Division Preview

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
August 1st, 2016
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1. Tennessee Volunteers

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
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Playoff Pick

The Volunteers are finally back.  Some—depending on team affiliation—would roll their eyes at that statement because we’ve heard the story for quite some time.  Signing Day triumphs have turned into unwarranted preseason hype before the talent was ripe.  This year, however, is different because the Volunteers are returning a proven nucleus of players who have the talent to win a championship.  Butch Jones has proven he is a winner at every stop, and many felt it was only a matter of time before he won at the highest level.  The final step Jones must prove is his ability to win at the highest level.  He has done a tremendous job retooling Tennessee thus far, but the battle is only halfway over.
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OFFENSE

Joshua Dobbs returns at quarterback to give Tennessee the best QB situation in the East, and one of the best in the SEC.  Dobbs has improved each year, opening his career as an effective game manager and steadily improving to an all-around threat.  The talent surrounding him has also improved, particularly along the offensive line and at running back.  Dylan Wiesman returns at guard after an All-SEC 2015 to lead a suddenly experienced offensive line.  Drew Richmond will be the only starter without experience, but he should be a welcoming contributor to the unit given his size and skillset.  With the return of Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara, the Volunteers not only have two great running backs, but they have a duo that complements one another perfectly.  Hurd is so athletic and physical that he can absolutely wear a defense down while Kamara is a big-time home run threat who averaged a ridiculous 6.5 yards per carry last year.  If wide receivers Josh Malone and Preston Williams can be more consistent, this offense has the potential to be without any deficiencies.

DEFENSE
On defense, the narrative remains the same, which is a testament to the Tennessee staff’s ability to recruit and develop players.  Led by DE Derek Barnett and All-American CB Cameron Sutton, this is a well-rounded group with playmakers at every level.  With the addition of former Vanderbilt and Penn State defensive coordinator Bob Shoop, I expect a noticeable improvement from a group that allowed only 20 points last year.  Jalen Reeves-Maybin, along with Barnett, provide one of the best pass rushing tandems in the nation as the duo combined for 16 sacks last season.  The only big departure will be that of safety Brian Randolph.  Accordingly, the master team builder Jones has brought in a stellar defensive back class that could contribute as early as this year.  Nigel Warrior is a blue chip recruit who outshined a lot of his peers as an All-American that could get into the mix with a strong camp.

OUTLOOK
Brick by brick, the pyramid is nearly complete.  With Georgia and Florida in the midst of coaching and quarterback transitions, the stage could not be set any better for a run in 2016.  With Alabama on the schedule, the Vols face the most difficult cross-over game compared to Georgia and Florida.  However, in what should be one of the most anticipated games of the season, Tennessee will have an opportunity to shine on the brightest of stages on October 15th.  A win against the Tide would be symbolic of the rebuilding phase coming to an end, but the result of that game will not define the season.  The Volunteers should be favored in every game except Alabama (and potentially the SEC Title Game).  If they can win one of those two games, they will be in a good position for a Playoff appearance as either the SEC Champion or as an at-large bid.  We feel that Tennessee is ready, and we are calling for a Playoff birth in 2016.
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2. Georgia Bulldogs

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
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The Mark Richt era is officially over—and it is difficult to imagine anyone other than Richt leading the Bulldogs between the hedges.  Richt gave Georgia fans plenty to cheer about, but never managed to be the top dog in the SEC, particularly when Urban Meyer’s Florida program was the dominant team during the mid 2000s, and now Nick Saban’s Alabama program is the gold standard in college football.  While Richt had tremendous success and was very close to a national title in 2012, he picked a bad time to go stale, 13 years into his tenure.  Given Richt’s pedigree with quarterbacks and his tremendous success with David Greene, Matthew Stafford, and Aaron Murray, I thought Georgia picked a bad time to fire him given Jacob Eason’s impending commitment.  However, the Kirby Smart era has started off well on the recruiting trail, and the Bulldog program has a new feel to it.  Now he has to prove that it is more than just window dressing.
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OFFENSE

Of course, Eason stuck with his commitment to play for Georgia and now seems primed to start.  He must fend off returning starter Greyson Lambert and Brice Ramsey, who seems to live in the shadows of the Georgia QB competition.  Both Lambert, who was very solid in his first year at UGA, and Ramsey have limitations, while Eason will face growing pains as a true freshman.  Jake Rowe of Dawgs247 said he expects Lambert to start the year, but Eason to play the most snaps. I would not expect Lambert to regress this year—therefore, I expect production from the QB position to improve.  The biggest win for the Bulldogs will be getting Nick Chubb back from injury after he was named 1st Team All-SEC in his true freshman year, over the likes of Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry.  Chubb, along with Sony Michel, form one of the best running back duos in the nation and both will get to run behind an offensive line that returns three starters.  Similar to Alabama, expect Smart and new offensive coordinator Jim Chaney to put a heavy emphasis on the ground game.  Chaney also gets great production out of the tight end position and Jeb Blazevich is one of the best all-around TEs in the country.  Despite the lack of a star at QB, this is still a high-powered offense that should improve under Chaney’s leadership.

DEFENSE
Kirby Smart will get to put his handprints all over this defense after leading some of the best defenses in the modern era at Alabama.  He inherits a roster chock full of blue chip, albeit inexperienced, talent.  Leonard Floyd and Jordan Jenkins were a couple of the best edge defenders in the nation last year, and would have been a perfect fit for Smart’s defense, but will both play on Sundays this year.  However, Lorenzo Carter was so talented that the previous staff couldn’t keep him off the field, and should shine as a starter in 2016.  Fellow true sophomore Trenton Thompson also saw action last year and could turn into an All-American by the end of the season.  Finally, the secondary was one of the best in the nation after looking like a major question mark this time last year.  Opposing quarterbacks only completed 51% of their throws, and Johnathan Abram is the lone departure.  Rico McGraw and Juwuan Briscoe could actually improve this unit as both are prototypical for their roles and gained valuable experience last year.  Overall, if DE Jonathan Ledbetter comes back from suspension and players like Thompson, Carter, Natrez Patrick, and Briscoe all play up to their potential, this defense could finish the season as a top 5 unit—there is a lot of talent to go around and very few holes.

OUTLOOK
The overall outlook on the Bulldogs has been jaded by the facts that they are undergoing a head coach transition and their starting QB is likely a freshman.  Richt proved to be one of the best offensive coaches in football, but Brian Schottenheimer was a disappointment in Athens.  Jim Chaney will have full control of the offense and I expect that to translate to significant improvement.  While Tennessee is getting all of the preseason accolades, Georgia is 1B, not a distant 2, to the Volunteers in the SEC East.  Look for the Bulldogs to compete for an SEC Title.

Correspondence with Jake Rowe, Dawgs247
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   3. FLORIDA GATORS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
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It was a tale of two seasons for Florida in Jim McElwain’s first year.  The Gators started off hot by winning their first six games, as well as starting 10-1.  However, after Will Grier’s suspension, the offense became very Muschamp-esque as the Gators struggled against inferior opponents and were blown out against formidable opponents.  Still, 2016 was a far cry from 2013-2014 and the program has regained its pride.  Many of the same questions that surrounded this team at this time last year still remain.  Yet, one of the biggest question marks, the head coach, is no longer a concern as Jim McElwain proved to be worthy of the praise as he came over from Colorado State.
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OFFENSE

Luke Del Rio is projected to start after Treon Harris moved to WR and transferred, but still needs to actually earn it in camp.  Feleipe Franks was a blue chip recruit who flipped his commitment from LSU and could potentially win the job.  Regardless of who starts, the production should be better than what Harris gave at the end of last year.  One reason I say that with confidence is an improved offensive line.  After averaging only 3.5 yards per carry and allowing 46 sacks in 2015, this group has nowhere to go but up.  Freshmen who played a year too early now have valuable experience and a year in the weight room.  With more stability at quarterback and an improved line, I anticipate a better year for this offense despite key losses at the skill positions such as Demarcus Robinson, Jake McGee, and Kelvin Taylor.  WR Antonio Callaway should reap the benefits of the improved stability as he showed great flashes as a freshman and could be the next great Florida wide receiver.

DEFENSE
While McElwain inherited pure chaos on offense from Muschamp, he benefited from the leftover talent on defense, which was the backbone of the 2015 team that won 10 games.  At every level on defense, there were playmakers and future NFL players contributing to hold opponents to only 18.3 points per game, 3.5 yards per carry, and only 182 passing yards per game.  Correspondingly, the departing class loses a playmaker at every level in DL Jonathan Bullard, LB Antonio Morrison, and DBs Keanu Neal and Vernon Hargreaves.  Fortunately, young and proven talent is in the wings to pick up the slack.  DE CeCe Jefferson showed tremendous ability as a true freshman and earned Freshmen All-SEC honors.  Jarrad Davis had a breakout year at linebacker, recording 98 tackles and 7.5 TFL, and is a potential Butkus Award winner in his senior year.  Finally, Jalen Tabor and Marcus Maye earned many accolades last year in the secondary and Tabor actually had a better year than Hargreaves.  Still, this secondary will probably take a step back as there really isn’t anywhere else for it to go.

OUTLOOK
Florida benefitted from close wins, a positive turnover margin, and a very talented defense to win 10 games last year.  Simply put, the Gators were overachievers.  While I don’t expect improvement in the win/loss column, I do expect to see a better overall team in 2016.  Jim McElwain has proven himself at every stop and we still do not know his ceiling.  For Florida fans, this is an exciting feeling—they’ll even tell you, “It’s great to be a Florida Gator.”
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   4. MISSOURI TIGERS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
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Missouri football will certainly have a different feel to it without Gary Pinkel on the sideline for the first time in 16 years.  The Tigers continually surprised people with their success after transitioning to the SEC despite lacking the perceived talent of other traditional SEC powers.  Time and time again, Pinkel proved that disciplined, smart football almost always prevails over sheer talent.  Albeit, Missouri’s roster was largely underrated by most media outlets and continually churned out playmakers.  Pinkel’s presence will not be completely interrupted as former defensive coordinator Barry Odom takes over the reigns as head coach.  However, Odom’s promotion is not the only major coaching change as Josh Heupel takes over as offensive coordinator while famed defensive line coach Tom Kuligowski has moved to join Mark Richt’s staff at Miami.
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OFFENSE

Heupel’s addition is welcomed—well, really any new blood is welcomed for an offense that finished last in Power 5 conference scoring per game last year.  The Maty Mauk era started off hot as he performed well filling in for injured James Franklin in 2013.  However, he proved that he wasn’t the next Russell Wilson in his first year as full time starter in 2014, and eventually struggled so much that he lost his job in 2015.  The Tiger offense lost multiple playmakers last year and ultimately finished the season averaging 13.6 ppg, 3.5 yards per carry, and only 281 yards per game.  Heupel will increase the tempo (when does a new offensive coordinator NOT say this?) and will be a great mentor and developer to current and future Missouri quarterbacks.  With the losses of Evan Boehm and Connor McGovern, there is essentially no experience along the offensive line.  Given how the group performed as a whole last year, I would still expect improvement despite no real indicators pointing that way, except new scheme.  Aside from Heupel’s arrival, the Tiger offense should be bolstered by the maturation of Drew Lock and high-powered transfers RB Alex Ross and WR Chris Black.  While they won’t be confused for the 2013 group, the offense should take several steps forward in 2016.

DEFENSE
The 2013 team featured the nation’s best defensive line with SEC Defensive Player of the Year Michael Sam and first-round pick Kony Ealy rushing the passer.  The Tigers dipped back into their limitless pool of freak defensive linemen the following year as Shane Ray and Markus Golden formed one of the nation’s top defensive end duos once again.  Not to understate the talent and hard work of the individual players, but DL coach Tom Kogilowski is certainly one of the best in the industry and his loss will hurt.  However, it may take a few years to feel his loss since this year’s defensive line looks to be loaded full of talent once again.  Charles Harris is coming off of an All-SEC year in which he recorded seven sacks and 11.5 TFL to lead the group.  DT Harold Brantley returns from injury after a very productive 2014 season.  Meanwhile, the most promising players may be Terry Beckner and Walter Brady who both had productive freshman years and could turn into monsters in their second seasons.  Unfortunately, this group loses the safety net that LB Kentrell Brothers provided them, as he led the nation with 152 tackles.  Brothers was the heart and soul of this defense, and his absence will sting.

OUTLOOK
Missouri’s program currently has so many moving pieces that it is very difficult to predict.  I have consistently ranked the Tigers higher than the national preseason average, but one of the main reasons was my faith in Pinkel.  This offense will improve with the help of a new scheme and new transfers and the defense looks to hold serve as one of the SEC’s better units.  While I do not expect Missouri to compete for an SEC Title, I do expect a winning season.
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   5. KENTUCKY WILDCATS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
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The Wildcats finished 2015 with a disappointing 5-7 record.  After taking over a program in the gutters, Mark Stoops began his head coaching tenure with consecutive two-win seasons before breaking through in 2014 with a 5-7 record.  With tangible improvements on the recruiting trail and in the win/loss column, the Wildcat program finally had momentum for the first time since the Andre Woodson era.  And with a handful of blue chip recruits competing for the starting QB position, there was only more reason for optimism.  Patrick Towles was named the starting QB, and his individual season was just as disappointing as Kentucky’s.
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OFFENSE

Towles has transferred to Boston College, and the Wildcats find themselves in the twilight zone as another big-armed QB with lots of promise will need to prove it on the field.  Drew Barker took over the starting role from Towles in the final two games last year, but struggled, only completing 50% of his passes while throwing one TD and two interceptions.  Barker will have a full complement of players at his disposal as Kentucky returns nine players on offense, including Boom Williams and JoJo Kemp at running back and an experienced offensive line, including All-SEC Center Jon Toth.  This rushing offense already averaged 4.7 yards per carry and could be one of the best units in the SEC this year.  The stability in the ground game will surely help Barker adjust to being the full-time starter.  Given his potential, it is difficult to ignore the upside of this offense.  Still, we will need to wait and see, especially after Towles’ struggles and Barker’s inconsistency in limited action.

DEFENSE
While the record remained stagnant at 5-7, last year’s Wildcats saw slight improvement on defense as the points per game decreased by about 4 points.  Mark Stoops certainly is not content as this unit showed some of the same weaknesses that have crippled this team.  Opponents are still breaking off long runs and the pass rush still has a long way to go.  And with the losses of many of last year’s top contributors, it is tough to expect anything more than marginal improvement.  The strength in Mark Stoops’ recruiting classes has mirrored his personal tendencies as a defensive coach, but players like Matt Elam have not done enough to turn it around.  With athletic linebackers Jordan Jones and Courtney Love entering the starting lineup, we could see a more athletic group in 2016—it’s up to Stoops and DJ Eliot to utilize that talent.

OUTLOOK
Mark Stoops’ seat will be hot if this team fails to show improvement in year five, especially as it seems Bobby Petrino is gaining momentum at in-state rival Louisville.  With a trip to Alabama featured on the cross-division schedule, gaining bowl eligibility becomes even less attainable.  However, the Wildcats host South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State, which will be the games that make or break the year.  As I said in last year’s preview, if the QB position can exceed expectations, Kentucky has all the makings of a sleeper team, and given Drew Barker’s pedigree, that assumption becomes a little less unrealistic. 
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6. Vanderbilt Commodores

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
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After one of the worst debuts as a new head coach, Derek Mason is slowly gaining traction in Nashville.  Mason inherited a bare cupboard from former coach James Franklin, and as such, most of the criticism he faced was uninformed.  The Commodores only improved by one game from 2014 to 2015, but the actual improvements are not accurately reflected in the record.  In 2014, Vanderbilt was blown out by Temple in Week 1, barely defeated UMass and Charleston Southern, and lost every SEC game.  With 15 starters back, including the young nucleus that helped revive the defense, Vanderbilt is once again trending upwards.
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OFFENSE

The Vanderbilt QB situation is not to be confused with the likes of Clemson, UCLA, or Ole Miss.  Still, Commodore fans will take solace knowing that there is some semblance of a Power 5 QB situation, which has not been the case the last two years.  Kyle Shurmur was a highly-rated recruit who was thrust into action last year as a true freshman due to the dire times.  While his completion percentage was low, Shurmur showed why he was highly recruited and provided hope for the future.  With a full offseason under his belt, Shurmur appears to be the signal caller Derek Mason has been searching for.  Overall, the offense improved in every statistical category except points and sacks allowed last year.  With the return of Andrew Jelks, a Freshman All-American OT and all of the skill position players, I expect this group to continue to improve and break 20.0 ppg and 4.0 yards per carry in 2016.

DEFENSE
The largest breakthrough last year was on the defensive side of the ball.  I always look for an improvement in the coach’s area of expertise when evaluating new head coaches.  The defense improved from 33.3 ppg allowed in 2014 to 21.0 ppg allowed in 2015.  The strength of this defense is its linebackers with four potential All-SEC players in Josh Smith, Zach Cunningham, Nigel Bowden, and Oren Burks.  Cunningham racked up 103 tackles last year and was named an All-American and Burks was an All-SEC safety who moves to LB this year.  Nigel Bowden was named to the All-SEC Freshmen team in 2014, but was sidelined with concussions last year.  Josh Smith, the best recruit of the bunch, played a lot as a true freshman and could make a big jump in production like Cunningham and Bowden did in their second years.  In addition, both starting cornerbacks, Torren McGaster and Tre Herndon, return to provide stability in the secondary.  Overall, this should be one of the best defenses in the SEC this year.

OUTLOOK
From top to bottom, Derek Mason would certainly like to improve the overall talent on this roster.  The Commodores may struggle in close games due to a lack of depth compared to other SEC teams.  However, this is the best starting lineup Mason has had, and the defense features a handful of All-SEC players.  With improvement on offense and stability at the quarterback position, I expect this team to pull off a few big upsets this year and make it to a bowl.  The future is bright in Nashville.
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   7. South Carolina Gamecocks

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
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Will Muschamp is once again an SEC head coach.  After cleaning up the mess Urban Meyer left at Florida, albeit a roster chock full of talented players, Muschamp was unable to live up to Meyer’s level of success and was subsequently released.  He led one of the nation’s best defenses in 2012, which concluded in a trip to the Sugar Bowl—Muschamp may have ultimately failed at Florida but has certainly proven he can win.  He inherits a 3-9 team and a program that must compete with SEC powerhouses and a now-juggernaut Clemson program.  His resume may not be that of the ideal candidate, but his personality and energy are critical characteristics—actually prerequisites—for a job like this.
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OFFENSE

After averaging over 30 points per game each of the prior five seasons, the offense hit rock bottom last year, averaging only 21.9 points per game.  Perry Orth struggled at QB as he posted a 4:3 touchdown to interception ratio and a 54% completion percentage.  Orth will return for his senior year, but will have to fend off true freshman Brandon McIlwain, who participated in spring practice and looked very good.  With a returning starter in the mix, I typically use last season’s production as the floor for what to expect in the upcoming year.  However, with the losses of Pharoh Cooper and Jerrell Adams, as well as Muschamp’s track record with QBs, the quarterback position is a true wild card.  The strength of this offense lies in the trenches as Alan Knott and Cory Helms form a strong inside duo, and talented, but inexperienced, players Zack Bailey and DJ Park enter the starting lineup.  The running game could certainly improve this year, but depth is a major question behind running back David Williams.  This offense will still struggle at times, but I expect improvement from last year.

DEFENSE
The defense was the identity of the South Carolina program at the peak of the Spurrier era.  Jadeveon Clowney is the poster child, but each year seemed to always feature freakish athleticism on the defensive line and talented players in the secondary.  The defense marginally improved last year, but the last two years overall have been below average on a national scale, let alone the South Carolina scale.  The defensive line will not be confused for the 2013 unit, but it should be a strength this year.  Marquavius Lewis has the potential to be an All-SEC player and came on strong at the end of last year.  With a full SEC season under his belt, I expect a very good year from him.  The linebackers had a chance to be the best unit of this team, but lost their star, Skai Moore, to a season-ending neck injury already.  Still, Bryson Allen-Williams and Jonathan Walton will get their turn to be full-time starters, and both are extremely athletic and physical.  The biggest question marks are in the secondary after an up-and-down season last year.  Rico McWilliams and Jordan Diggs, who did not participate in the spring due to a shoulder injury, are the only returning starters.  Will Muschamp was critical of the defensive backs in the spring, but noted that sophomore Rashad Fenton played well and could win one of the starting cornerback spots.

OUTLOOK
I expect a rocky start to Muschamp’s first year.  He will certainly face criticism since many people were weary of his hire, but he did not inherit a great roster and faces a very difficult schedule.  If Muschamp can get the Gamecocks to a bowl at 6-6 or 7-5, most Gamecock fans would be jumping for joy.  The difficult part about this schedule is that the most winnable games are early in the season, and this team may face early growing pains with a new coaching staff and potentially a true freshman quarterback.  While they may not win the games at the end of the year, it will be interesting to see how the team progresses in hopes for a big 2017.

Correspondence with Scott Hood, Gamecock Central
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