2016 Big Ten West Division Preview

BRETT CIANCIA
August 1st, 2016

T-1. IOWA HAWKEYES

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Iowa might just be the biggest mind-puzzle this preseason. What do you make of their 12-0 campaign last season, in which a very average roster had every single bounce go their way? The Hawkeyes (incredibly) won all 5 of their one-possession regular season games, had a +11 turnover margin, and avoided the top 4 teams of the Big Ten East. All of those close wins were like pulling Jenga logs out of the stack, and the blowout loss in the Rose Bowl was the final straw, as they imploded on themselves on the national stage.

All of that said, they return most of their stars and playmakers, and look like the division favorites. I wouldn’t pick Iowa to win any other Power 5 division, and would place them 4th over in the Big Ten East, but here in the West, the array of challengers is underwhelming. Can Kirk Ferentz sustain this high level of play, or revert to the old 7-5 ways?

OFFENSE
Entering 2015, Jake Rudock transferred to Michigan, leaving the starting quarterback job to C.J. Beathard, who was a breath of fresh air at the position. Historically, Iowa has had a lineage of super-conservative quarterbacks, but Beathard brings a gunslinger mentality and just enough elusiveness and creativity to extend plays. He was also very efficient with the ball (27 TD’s to 5 INT’s), and this ball security is essential to the team’s success again in 2016. It will be “running back by committee,” but Akrum Wadley has the highest ceiling and is one of the few game-breaking playmakers on the roster. LeShun Daniels is a proven back, and is more of the prototypical Iowa back (sadly, even with the injury pattern too).

Three starters are back on the offensive line, spearheaded by Sean Welsh who made the Rimington watch list despite never taking a snap at center yet. Boone Myers formerly started at left tackle but while he was out with an injury, Cole Croston filled in and looks like the starter now. Myers still rates as our 3rd highest Iowa lineman and will take the left guard spot. After some playing time as a true freshman, James Daniels might just have the highest ceiling along the line.

The biggest question mark resides at receiver. Matt VandeBerg had 65 receptions for 703 yards and 4 TD’s last season, but after him there is a significant dropoff. The offense needs another playmaker to emerge between Jerminic Smith and Jay Scheel. Smith played some as a true freshman last season, while Scheel was highly-touted out of high school. Tight end George Kittle is solid and will be relied upon heavily. Like Wisconsin, this lack of receiver talent could handcuff the offense and make them more one-dimensional than last season. Ultimately, receiver play and Beathard’s high efficiency with ball control could be the two main factors.

DEFENSE
Defensive end Drew Ott’s medical redshirt appeal lost, and he is really the only star player this #19-ranked defense is losing. There are all-conference stars at each level of the defense, and an All-American at corner in Desmond King. As our top rated cornerback in America, King earns our “99 overall” rating, and will be joined again by 3-year starter Greg Mabin at the other corner. This tandem is excellent, but there is some drop-off at the safety spots, with walk-on Brandon Snyder and Miles Taylor who was burnt by play-action often.

Linebacker Josey Jewell and defensive tackle Jaleel Johnson anchor the core of the defense, and both are legit all-conference talents. There are just two open spots in the front seven, but look for Matt Nelson (DE) and Aaron Mends (OLB) to seize them. I talked with Iowa analyst Tom Kalken (@HawkeyeReport) and he mentioned that the 6’8” Nelson has put on significant muscle-strength and looks like a strong replacement for Ott. With 8 starters back (including 1st round talent King) from a team that only allowed 20 points per game, the defense will be what keeps Iowa in every game this season. They will give the team a puncher’s chance in every ballgame.

OUTLOOK
I know I referenced the slim margin of error in Iowa's 12-0 run, but all of that aside, you need to give credit to Ferentz and the Hawkeyes for doing just enough to survive. At the core, they played some really sound football on both sides of the ball.

That said, with a tougher schedule and the bullseye fully planted on those black and gold jerseys, can Iowa do it again? I do not think that turnover margin will be repeated, and do not see the offense becoming super dynamic all of a sudden. I see this as a dead heat with Nebraska for the West crown, and give the slight edge to Iowa because they host the three West Division contenders while Nebraska must travel. The Penn State night game in Happy Valley could prove to be a swing game, and I do not see Iowa surviving that white-out atmosphere with a win. I am calling for Iowa and Nebraska to both finish 6-3 in the Big Ten West.

T-1. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Last preseason, every publication in America picked Wisconsin to win the Big Ten West. But with roster turnover along the offensive line, and a weakness at quarterback, I was the only one to move them out of the top spot. And while that part held true, by picking Nebraska to win the West over Wisconsin, I was only half-right. I picked the wrong sleeper team, as Iowa pulled off the Cinderella 12-0 regular season. But looking back on the pick, I do not regret it at all, because I still feel Nebraska was every bit as talented as Wisconsin – and Iowa for that matter.

In Mike Riley’s first season in Lincoln, it seemed as though the team invented new ways to lose each week in new, heart-breaking fashion.
BYU completed a Hail Mary touchdown on the final play (loss by 5), an overtime loss after a wild 4th quarter comeback against Miami (loss by 3), failure to gain a late first down and ruined 13-0 4th quarter lead at Illinois (loss by 1), same trouble finishing off Wisconsin to lose on a last-second field goal (loss by 2), failed 2-point conversion to force overtime vs Northwestern (loss by 2), injury-riddled roster gives up 5 turnovers to Purdue (loss by 10), an errant Pick Six makes the difference vs Iowa despite nearly doubling them in yardage (loss by 8).

Just typing that list was painful. That litany of odd losses is enough to last most programs a few seasons or a decade, let alone a single season, but Nebraska had every bounce go against them, and every close game (except the Michigan State upset) went the wrong way.
For all the games Nebraska barely lost, Iowa barely won, and even though their records were very different, I feel they are almost identical talent-wise. Can Nebraska improve in Riley’s second season enough to reverse these one-score losses?

OFFENSE
Riley and offensive coordinator Danny Langsdorf would prefer a more pass-oriented offense, but as we saw at Oregon State, they are open to adapt the scheme to fit their player personnel. Simply put, Tommy Armstrong is just not a pocket passer, and is far from it. He does brings another element to the offense with his running ability, but needs to cut down on costly interceptions (16 last season) and errant reads and throws. There tends to be significant improvements from a quarterback’s first to second season starting. And while Armstrong has been the starter since October 2013, with the offensive staff/scheme change it was almost like he was starting over again. Nebraska fans saw a run-heavy scheme in the Foster Farms Bowl, where they rushed for over 300 yards against UCLA, and would like more of this power running focus. While I don’t think that performance will be the norm, I do think Riley will mix in enough quarterback run plays to keep Armstrong effective.

At I-back, Terrell Newby was slated as the starter last preseason and had major shoes to fill. The lineage of top-notch runners goes back to the start of the Pelini era – Helu, Burkhead, Abdullah. But you also need to go back to the middle of the Callahan era to find the last time Nebraska employed a true “back by committee” approach. In 2006, Brandon Jackson, Marlon Lucky, and Cody Glenn all shared the carries, and the bigger share went to the ‘hot hand’ that game. It looks like a decade later it may be a similar approach with Newby joined by Devine Ozigbo who emerged with 20 carries in the bowl win.

The strongest unit on the team is the wide receiver core, and they rate as our top WR unit in the Big Ten. Jordan Westerkamp might only be known nationally for his behind-the-back catch, but I think he has a strong chance to become the school’s first-ever 1000-yard receiver (918 last year). Meanwhile, Brandon Reilly returns as another top-notch threat, while three additional playmakers will fight for touches. I have Stanley Morgan penciled in as WR3; he looked like a growing star in time as a freshman. But the x-factor is De’Mornay Pierson-El, the elusive punt returner who is recovering from an injury. If he is 100% healthy and in full 2014 form, he will be a starter. His Twitter handle @DontPunt_15 says it all.

The most critical factor in the offense’s success this fall, in addition to Armstrong’s decision-making and efficiency, is the offensive line’s development. Two starters return, led by Nick Gates and Dylan Utter who rate as our two top Nebraska linemen. The guards are young but were highly-touted recruits. The starting five rates as one of the division’s best, but there are serious depth concerns under that top line.

DEFENSE
6 seasons ago, the Blackshirts were the #1 scoring defense in America led by the most dominant defender our sport has seen in decades. Bo Pelini built his 4-2-5 “match” defense to excel in the pass-heavy Big 12. To say the Big Ten West is more run-heavy is an understatement. So Pelini’s defenses had some issues adjusting, and that 2009-2010 level hasn’t been seen here since.

5 starters return from a unit that finished 10th in the Big Ten in scoring defense allowing 28 points per game. The -12 turnover margin must be improved upon, even if half of that metric has to do with Armstrong throwing to the wrong jerseys. The strongest unit on the defense is the linebackers, even if the other national pundits aren’t giving them the attention they deserve. I see multiple playmakers that are ready to break through. Michael Rose-Ivey has been injury-riddled but I have liked what I’ve seen from him when healthy. Dedrick Young played in 12 games last season as a freshman, and Josh Banderas will likely claim the middle backer spot again. Marcus Newby will be brought in for packages against spread and passing teams, as he is more versatile in coverage.

Nate Gerry rates as our top safety in the Big Ten, the true leader of the entire defense. Chris Jones and Joshua Kalu return at the corners, while the other safety spot is wide open for incoming freshman 4-star Lamar Jackson to battle Aaron Williams for playing time. But the big issue, like the offense, comes along the line thanks to an exodus of strong players. Freedom Akinmoladun is a star in the making, but from there questions abound. 5th-year Kevin Maurice is finally ready to start, and perhaps Khalil Davis will join him up front with the reliable Ross Dzuris at the other end spot.

OUTLOOK
At a closer look, the 7-loss debut for Riley was more like an 8-4, 9-3 season given the ridiculous ways games were lost that should have been won. This season they receive the 2nd-year coach bonus which should certainly cut down on turnovers and mistakes. This is the best stable of skill players in the conference, and the keys will be Armstrong's efficiency and ball control, and the developments on both lines especially defensively. The West is very winnable and despite every publication in America giving Iowa the division out-right, I am calling for a tie (both likely 6-3 in the league).

In the non-conference, keep an eye on the Oregon game. Under Riley, Nebraska has hit the West Coast hard in recruiting, and the #Calibraska Movement has been fun to follow. A win over one of the West's powers, in front of dozens of blue-chippers, should build off of the bowl win over UCLA last December.

Thoughts and Prayers with the Foltz and Sadler families, as well as the entire Nebraska football community and fan base

3. WISCONSIN BADGERS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

After Gary Andersen’s unexpected departure, Paul Chryst opened up his tenure with a 10-win season, the school’s 7th in 11 years. But on the national scale (much like Northwestern), it was a quiet 10 wins overshadowed by the Cinderella story that Kirk Ferentz was able to orchestrate at Iowa. Due in part to an early-season injury to feature back Corey Clement, Wisconsin’s vaunted rushing attack finished just 95th nationally – the lowest in over 20 years. Chryst will need to re-establish this identity, especially with holes at quarterback and receiver, and his ace defensive coordinator being poached by LSU.

OFFENSE
As mentioned, the Wisconsin offense simply wasn’t itself last season. Clement is the next star in the long lineage of Wisconsin backs, and should be back to his full ability after being sidelined with a nagging sports hernia injury. He rates as our #2 running back in the Big Ten, and will be backed by Dare Ogunbowale, who gained 894 yards in his absence last season. Ogunbowale made the switch over from defense a few sesason ago, and has displayed great speed and vision. Expect these two to be relied on much more with significant question marks at both quarterback and receiver. The lack of playmakers on the outside is very unsettling, and the only proven commodity is Rob Wheelwright. The leading returning receiver is actually Ogunbowale (299 yards) which speaks to the inexperience with this unit. Jazz Peavy is the clear #2 reciever, while Reggie Love and George Rushing will battle for the third spot in the rotation. Wisconsin will again go heavy with many two tight end looks; Troy Fumagalli is the receiving tight end, while Eric Steffes is the stronger blocker.

At quarterback, it’s the classic case of the incumbent, veteran back-up against the prized, hand-picked recruit. Bart Houston enters his 5th season here, played a bit in 2014, but has always had his name in the quarterback competition. Alex Hornibrook was Paul Chryst’s signee back at Pittsburgh, but when he took the head coaching job at Wisconsin in 2015, Hornibrook followed him to the Midwest. Despite some expected freshman growing pains at the beginning of his first spring camp, Hornibrook left it looking like the better prospect. While Chryst has given no indication of the starter, traditional analysis suggests that the veteran Houston will start week 1, but Hornibrook will push for time and eventually steal the job as the season unfolds.

It is easy to get caught up in the running back glory here: Wisconsin is now home to the NCAA record holders for all-time career rushing yards (Ron Dayne), single-game rushing yards (Melvin Gordon), and career rushing touchdowns (Montee Ball). But before we anoint them “Running Back U,” let’s not forget what makes Wisconsin football who they are: the big hosses up front. I think a more fitting name for this recent powerhouse is “O-Line U.” But lost in the 10 wins was the worst rushing output in 20 years, and the first time since 2004 that UW failed to produce a 1000-yard back. Coming into 2015, I wrote that with just 2 line starters back, a regression was coming. And while I couldn’t have predicted that large of a fall, it was still correct. Wisconsin goes as its line goes. This season 4 starters return, headlined by Michael Deiter at center and Dan Voltz who moves over to left guard. These two rate as our top lineman on the roster, with new starter Ryan Ramczyk looking impressive in spring.

DEFENSE
Wisconsin finished with the #1 scoring defense in America (13.7 points per game) after holding every opponent to under 24 points, with the exception of eventual national champion Alabama. Two key stars are gone from that unit as linebacker Michael Schobert and Michael Caputo have graduated. But the biggest loss is at the top. Ace coordinator Dave Aranda was poached by LSU, so Chryst decided to bring in Justin Wilcox, recently fired from USC. Wilcox had some success at Washington, but with all of the blue chips at USC, he underachieved and didn’t use his playmakers enough. It will be a similar 3-4 base scheme, and luckily for Wilcox, the linebacker unit is loaded with both experience and potential. Vince Biegel (8 sacks last season) is the top defender on the roster, and will again star at the outside spot. Opposite of Biegel is T.J. Watt (yes, the younger brother of J.J.) and T.J. Edwards is a returning starter in the middle. I spoke with Wisconsin analyst Jason Galloway and he noted that the other ILB spot is still a battle between Jack Cichy and Chris Orr. We rate this as the best linebacking corps in the Big Ten West.

Rounding out this stout front seven is a duo of returning starters at the defensive ends. Chikwe Obasih is a 3-year starter and the unquestioned leader up front. At nose tackle, Olive Sagapolu hopes to build off of a productive freshman season. It is a deep line, and the rotation should be able to flourish as other teams tire late in games. For as strong as the front seven appears to be, there are as many questions in the secondary. Michael Caputo (3-year starter), Darius Hillary (3-year starter), and Tanner McEvoy (multi-year contributor) are all gone from the #7 passing defense in America. Despite some ups and downs in his career, 4-year starter Sojourn Shelton is the most proven commodity and the leader of the bunch. The other three starting spots are very variable heading into fall camp, but at this point Derrick Tindal looks like the probable starter at corner opposite of Shelton, while D’Cota Dixon and Leo Musso have slight leads at the safety positions. With the loss of star power and coach Aranda, I am calling for a noticeable regression on defense. The 2015 numbers cannot be matched -- #4 rushing defense, #7 passing defense, #4 yards per play, #11 3rd down defense, #11 red zone defense -- but if the new-look secondary can gel, and if Wilcox uses his playmakers correctly, the defense should still be towards the top of the conference.

OUTLOOK
Welcome to the Big Ten East, Wisconsin! After years of avoiding the cross-division heavyweights, Wisconsin now faces an absolute gauntlet of a schedule. In terms of roster talent, they rate right up there with Iowa and Nebraska, but the schedule disadvantage is enough to drop them below the other contenders. Questions at QB and WR will make an already one-dimensional offense that much more predictable, while the loss of coordinator Aranda will damage the defense. The stagnant offense relied too heavily on the elite defense last year, and will not have that luxury this fall. I expect Wisconsin to lose all three East games to start 0-3 in conference play…and that is followed immediately by the three West contenders all in a row. I think a 5-4 Big Ten record is a safe guess at this point, with a guaranteed loss to Aranda’s LSU in the opener.

4. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Pat Fitzgerald led Northwestern to 10 wins in 2012, which was the program’s first double-digit win season since 1995 when he was the star linebacker. Those 3 losses in 2012 were all close, and the offseason slogan heading into 2013 was “5:03” the combined time of how close Northwestern was to a perfect season. The bar was set at an all-time high, and the 2013 and 2014 teams failed to match it, each going 5-7 and missing bowl season. Out of nowhere, the 2015 squad returned to 10 wins, and as I mentioned above in the Wisconsin preview, this was the quietest 10-win season in recent memory. After stunning Stanford 16-6 in the opener, Northwestern survived close games against Duke and Ball State, but the next time they were seen nationally was against Michigan who dropped a 38-0 spanking on the #13 Cats. Seven days later, another nationally televised ranked matchup, and another blowout loss – this time 40-10 at the hands of then-#18 Iowa. From that point on, all eyes were on Kirk Ferentz’s Cinderella story and Northwestern scraped its way to 10 wins.

It is worth taking a closer look at the wins and losses. Not counting the FCS game, their wins were by an average of 8.6 points (including wins by 2, 2, 5, 6, 7, & 9). Meanwhile, their three losses against Top 40 teams (aka when actually challenged) resulted in massive blowouts for an average loss margin of 35.7 points. Against weak opponents they won by a score, against Top 40 teams they lost by 5 touchdowns! With just 11 starters returning from an overachieving team, a 5-year weighted recruiting rank of 10th in the Big Ten, and a tough cross-division slate, a win/loss regression is almost guaranteed.

OFFENSE
With a lack of playmakers, the offense became extremely conservative and played for field position, rarely taking any chances downfield. The offense averaged just 19.5 points per game (114th nationally), 139 yards passing per game (120th) and an overall efficiency of just 4.47 yards per play (120th). They seemed handcuffed on offense, and simply fed Justin Jackson the ball 25 times per game. Granted, he has emerged as our 4th rated running back in the Big Ten, but the non-existent passing threat needs to be fixed. Clayton Thorson returns at quarterback after a freshman season filled with growing pains (51% completion, 7 TD to 9 INT). Usually you see the biggest improvement from the first to second season starting; his development is key.

The offensive line was patched together week by week, but the five projected starters all had significant time last season. Left guard Ian Park and right tackle Eric Olson rate as our top two Northwestern linemen, and as a unit they look like a middle-of-the-pack bunch. With a (hopefully) more stable lineup, I expect the yards per carry stat to improve from the 4.09 (85th) mark. Serious questions remain on the outsides, as the lack of playmaking receivers is troubling. 3 of the top 6 in receiving yards last season are gone, including jack-of-all-trades Dan Vitale. They call his position the Super Back, which is a RB/H-Back/TE hybrid; look for Garrett Dickerson to take over here and do a fine job. Solomon Vault is back to receiver after some time at running back, but besides that, there are some voids here. The offense will certainly improve overall, but will it be enough to stay afloat? 19.5 points per game will not win 10 games again, and may only win half that.

DEFENSE
Due to the offense’s inefficiencies, it was defense-first last season. The 18.6 points allowed per game ranked 12th nationally, and the Cats gave up just 5 passing touchdowns, the least in America. Part of that excellent pass defense was the tandem of gifted pass rushers – Deonte Gibson and Dean Lowry – who are both gone. Ifeadi Odenigbo had 5 sacks last season as a pass rush specialist and will now take on a full starting role, while the defensive tackles both return.
But the true star of the defense is junior Anthony Walker, who followed up a promising freshman season with a breakout sophomore campaign complete with 20.5 tackles for loss (most in the Big Ten). He is an All-America candidate this season, and rates as a 98 overall. Jaylen Prater and Nate Hall will flank Walker on the outsides in Fitzgerald’s 4-3 base defense.

Godwin Igwebuike leads the secondary after finishing 2nd in tackles (87), and is joined by fellow returning starter Matthew Harris. Kyle Quiero had a breakout spring and looks to have solidified the other starting safety spot. With Odenigbo filling in for the biggest losses, and all other star power returning, look for the defense to be stout yet again.

OUTLOOK
As noted in the intro, the 2015 Northwestern path to 10 wins cannot be repeated. National pundits focus on how Iowa survived so many close games, but Northwestern is right up there with them. Yes, give credit to the stingy defense holding up for 4 quarters, and for the offense doing just enough to get the wins. But going forward that pattern is not sustainable. In a down division, Northwestern has a chance to make some noise, but until we see signs of offensive improvement, they are just outside contenders. The Wisconsin game in Evanston (11/5) is the swing game determining the 3rd and 4th place finishers in the West, and I feel Wisconsin is the more talented team top to bottom.

5. MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

During his decade-long tenure from 1997-2006, Glen Mason brought Minnesota to 7 bowl games. But the ensuing Tim Brewster years (17-33 overall record) were disastrous and Jerry Kill was brought in to pick up the pieces. That’s just what he did, with steady improvement over his first 4 seasons culminating with a New Year’s Day bowl in 2014 – the program’s first since the back-to-back Rose Bowls in 1961 and 1962. But health concerns have always been an issue, and last season after 7 games Kill was forced to retire. While it may not be a splash hire, defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys takes over the head position and brings stability along with the same football identity as his predecessor. It is the same hard-nosed Minnesota, this time with a much more manageable schedule.

OFFENSE
Minnesota has built its offensive identity as the stereotypical Big Ten offense – a punishing rushing attack in the “3 yards and a cloud of dust” mentality. However, there is some uncertainty in terms of offensive identity and scheme heading into 2016 as new full-time head coach Tracy Claeys hired Jay Johnson from Louisiana Lafayette who had success with the spread offense. But at the same time, Claeys also brought in Bart Miller, with roots in Wisconsin coaching its offensive line, as Big Ten as it gets. The two hires display contrasting styles, and the staff has played their cards close to the vest in the spring. We will likely see the same style, complete with power and zone rushing, but maybe an influx of more spread concepts like some jet sweeps and screens. Wide receiver is an area of concern, which leads me to believe Johnson will slow-play the offensive overhaul. In KJ Maye’s departure, look for Eric Carter to fill the spot as the smaller slot receiver, while returning leader Drew Wolitarsky and Rashad Still will hold the other spots.
Besides playmaking ability on the outsides, the next biggest concern comes at offensive line. I talked with Minnesota analyst Ryan Burns (@RyanBurnsMN) and he noted that while the starting five is strong, depth up front is where the true concern lies. Claeys did a nice job filling the left tackle and right guard vacancies with JUCO transfers; in fact, Garrison Wright and Vincent Calhoun look like the top two lineman in the unit. I am a big fan of JUCO players filling voids on rosters, especially in the trenches because they bring experience and extra years of strength training that is so vital on the lines.

Quarterback Mitch Leidner has already drawn 1st round NFL grades, and despite admitting that mock drafts are not my expertise, I still feel that is quite a stretch. We are in the business of evaluating college players and teams IN COLLEGE, and at this moment, Leidner rates as our 5th best quarterback in the Big Ten. Leidner improved his 51% completion rate up to 59% but is more valuable for his gutsy runs, leadership, and warrior endurance – even ligament damage in his toes couldn’t hold him back. He will be joined with a promising duo of sophomore running backs in Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith. Think of Brooks as old Minnesota, the 20-carry workhorse, while Rodney Smith is more of a change-of-pace back that can be utilized in more creative, spread concepts. Overall, I think an improvement on the Big Ten worst 22.5 points per game is almost a guarantee – unless Leidner goes down or the starting line hits some attrition.

DEFENSE
Two key players returning from injury provide sparks to the front and back four. That 5’11” 290-pound bowling ball in the middle is Steven Richardson, who Burns candidly described as a “giant muscle box.” Alongside him is JUCO transfer Merrick Jackson who I expect to beat out the underperforming Scott Ekpe. The interior defensive line is certainly a strength, while the ends desperately need to create a pass rush. Another bright spot duo is at linebacker with instinctive inside backer Cody Poock flanked by the rangy outside backer Jack Lynn.

The other star returning from injury is Damarius Travis at safety. Travis excelled in the opener against #2 TCU (a team Minnesota played toe-to-toe with), but suffered a season-ending injury. He will lead the unit after the departures of star corners Eric Murray and Briean Boddy-Calhoun. Jalen Myrick has sprinter speed and is one of the league’s fastest, and brings man coverage experience at corner. The other safety spot is a three-way battle between Ace Rodgers, Oregon-transfer Eric Amoako, and walk-on Adekunle Ayinde. Like Travis, Ace Rodgers was a week 1 starter vs. TCU but was lost to injury, and may just win the job back.

OUTLOOK
Claeys got a heck of a welcome gift in terms of his first-year schedule. Minnesota had one of the toughest gauntlets in America last season, and now gets to swap TCU/Ohio State/Michigan for Oregon State/Maryland/Rutgers. This could easily be a 3-win swing and I expect it to be. Kill did an excellent job here, and managed to bring home all of Minnesota’s several rivalry trophies – except the Paul Bunyan Axe that has resided in Madison since 2003. Perhaps this will be the year to steal back the Axe, against what should be a war-torn Wisconsin bunch going through the exact opposite type of schedule shift, from 2015 cupcakes to a 2016 death row.

6. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

The term “splash hire” is thrown around a lot during the annual coaching carousel in December/January, but Illinois’ hiring of long-time Chicago Bears head coach Lovie Smith fits the definition perfectly. The timing was strange, but it turns out that Illinois biggest signing came a month after National Signing Day. Smith is so beloved in the region, that Illini faithful hope he can create a spark in recruiting, and start to lock down some of the Midwest’s finest talent. An influx of playmakers is crucial, as Illinois rates just 12th in the Big Ten (53rd nationally) in our 5-year weighted average recruit index. The program hasn’t been nationally relevant since Ron Zook’s 2007 squad that featured QB Juice Williams and RB Rashard Mendenhall. Another star-powered QB-RB combo is the feature of Smith’s first roster here.

OFFENSE
Smith hired Garrick McGee as his offensive coordinator who was last seen in the Big Ten a decade ago at Northwestern in the same role. While the coaching staff has been more secretive than most in terms of revealing offensive schemes and strategies, they seem to want to evolve into a run-heavy, spread option offense. Now that transition may take longer than expected, as Smith will surely play to his quarterback’s strengths in Year 1. Wes Lunt is a very efficient pocket passer, and this will be his 3rd season starting here after transferring from Oklahoma State. He rates as our 2nd best QB in the Big Ten, but lacks playmakers on the outside after star slot receiver Mike Dudek was lost to an ACL injury in spring – the exact injury that took him out of the 2015 season as well. Desmond Cain will be the #1 target, and while he is not as dynamic, he is very effective and simply just gets open. Malik Turner will need to fill in for Dudek, while Justin Hardee returns from a 2015 injury at WR3.

Up front, 3 starters return and the strengths are clearly at the tackle spots with Christian DiLauro and Austin Schmidt rating as our top two Illinois linemen. Joe Spencer returns at center, and is a very cerebral player and an involved leader on offense. For the rushing attack to start to move forward (111th nationally last season), the offensive line needs to see some improvement. In the backfield, Ke’Shawn Vaughn rushed for 723 yards as a freshman, and is now the feature back. I spoke with Illinois analyst Bob Asmussen who feels Vaughn is one of the top backs in the conference thanks to his quickness, vision, and extremely high potential. Asmussen also mentioned Vaughn’s high self-goals – to lead the nation in rushing. With the offense slowly evolving, it may be difficult this fall, but he has a big career ahead of him.

DEFENSE
In recent years, the Illinois defense has had significant issues and has held back the team from bowl season. That wasn’t the case last fall, as the unit moved up into the Top 40 in scoring defense (23.3 per game) and ranked 15th in pass defense. While just 4 starters return, the presence of defensive-minded Lovie Smith is enough to get excited about. In hiring Hardy Nickerson as his defensive coordinator, Smith also picked up a stud middle linebacker in Nickerson’s son (same name). Linebacker Nickerson moved over from Cal as a grad transfer to play for his dad, and is a tackling machine. The other two linebacker spots are wide open, and without an official depth chart released yet by the staff, our August guess is Tre Watson and James Crawford at the outside backer spots.

In this 4-3 base scheme, three starters return along the defensive line to make it the clear strength of the defense. Besides Lunt, there is no other player as irreplaceable as defensive end Dawuane Smoot, who has serious NFL potential. Fellow seniors Rob Bain and Chunky Clements anchor the defensive tackle spots. Three starters are lost in the secondary, but ballhawk Taylor Barton had 4 interceptions last season and also gets very involved in the run game. Caleb Day is a former blue-chip recruit at corner.

OUTLOOK
On a high-level, so far it looks like Lovie Smith’s approach has been focused on assembling a strong coaching staff which is a contrasting approach to Ron Zook who made the first emphasis solely on recruiting. Granted, Smith joined in March which is a bit late in the recruiting cycle, so we will see his true impact in the next class. As far as the here and now, Illinois does not have the roster talent to compete for a division crown yet, but are certainly above the basement-dwelling Boilermakers. UNC and Western Michigan are both challenges in the non-conference, while Michigan and Michigan State are both tough draws from the East. I think 6th place is a fair opening spot for the Illinois, especially given the odd timing in the coaching cycle. Look for Lovie Smith’s second and third seasons to be the progress years.

7. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Darrell Hazell inherited one heck of a rebuilding project here in 2013, and at the beginning of his tenure he stressed the need for patience. The debut season was one of the worst statistical seasons in college football history, as Purdue went 1-11 (0-11 vs. FBS teams) and placed at or near the bottom in every common stat metric.

Entering Year 4, the patience has run thin, as Hazell has produced a 6-30 record going just 2-22 in Big Ten play. But more so than the awful win-loss result, is the lack of any feeling of progress or excitement around the program. Maryland and Rutgers have the fertile recruiting backdrop and some upward surge in that department. Indiana had a taste of bowl season. Illinois had the splash hire. While the other bottom-feeders in the conference all have some optimism, Purdue seems stuck, with recruiting struggles and a lack of fan support. It is hard to believe that a decade ago, the Boilermakers were a solid program always giving Ohio State and Notre Dame fits.

OFFENSE
It is also hard to believe that such a depleted roster has somehow produced – not just one – TWO likely SEC starting quarterbacks. In his 3 years here, Hazell still has not stayed with a quarterback for a full season. If someone will break the trend this season it will be Danny Blough who passed for 1547 yards in 8 starts last season. Both sides of the ball will be led by new coordinators; Terry Malone steps in on offense. I spoke with Purdue analyst Stacy Clardie (@GoldandBlackCom) and she explained that Malone wants this system to be quarterback-friendly with easier reads, less verbiage, and a smaller playbook. This is a direct contrast with ex-OC John Shoop’s system that had NFL-level complexity. Look for Blough, just a sophomore, to thrive in the new scheme.

Fellow sophomore Markell Jones will again be the leading rusher (875 yards and 10 TD’s in 2015) and will be joined by freshman Richie Worship – a 6’1”, 250-pound tank. Clearing holes for them will be an issue, as this offensive line rates towards the bottom of our Big Ten unit rankings. That said, Jason King is a potential pro prospect at left guard, and the young Martesse Patterson has potential to grow into a star. The receiver core is senior-laden, but only has one proven playmaker in DeAngelo Yancey. Purdue will again be in 3 and 4 receiver sets almost every snap, so expect a rotation between starter Cameron Posey, Domonique Young, Bilal Marshall, and the back-up slot guy Gregory Phillips. Last season the offense mustered just 25 points per game (92nd nationally), and 131 yards rushing per game (109th), but did average 240 through the air (54th). If the line can improve enough to allow Blough to grow in the new system, these numbers can be improved upon.

DEFENSE
There is more star power on this side of the ball, and a very high-level of experience in the linebacking core. However, new defensive coordinator Ross Els is committed to running the 4-2-5, which takes a 3rd linebacker off the field in favor of a 5th defensive back. While the scheme shift may fit the roster better in future seasons, it doesn’t fit the personnel right now. And quite honestly, the 4-2-5 itself is better suited for pass-happy leagues such as the Big 12. Els is a Bo Pelini disciple, and back when Nebraska was still in the air-raid Big 12, this scheme helped produce the #1 scoring defense in Division 1 in 2009. While Els will use the same “match” concepts as Pelini, I don’t see it working as effectively against the steamroller, run-first Big Ten West.

8 starters are back, so the experience is there, despite giving up 37 points per game last season (112th nationally). Star power is strong, as Jake Replogle anchors the defensive line, Danny Ezechukwu and Ja’Whaun Bentley form a strong backer tandem, and Leroy Clark mans the secondary. As mentioned, the other linebackers are senior veterans in Jimmy Herman and Andy James Garcia, but in Els’ 4-2-5, both are pulled from the field in favor of rookie defensive backs. Another major loss is at defensive tackle where Ra’Zahn Howard has been dismissed from the team. Even with the standouts at each level of the defense, the overall roster talent is lacking.

OUTLOOK
The schedule is actually very favorable when you consider the cross-division draw from the East. Purdue draws Penn State, Maryland, and rival Indiana, while avoiding the three superpowers. In terms of home/away, it is unlucky that the two best shots at a Big Ten West victory are both on the road AT Illinois and AT Minnesota. While I think that if Hazell can stick with Blough for a full season there will be some offensive gains, I cannot move Purdue out of the division basement until they show me themselves.