After decades of dreaming about it, years demanding it, and months arguing about it, the Playoff Era is finally here. The old BCS system would have produced a National Championship Game of #1 Florida State (only undefeated) and #2 Alabama (SEC Champion), but with both of those squads losing in the National Semifinals, the new system is instantly validated.
This offseason, we will take the role of the Selection Committee and look at how every BCS season (1998-2013) would have played out in the current College Football Playoff setup. As a staff, we will analyze, debate, and ultimately select the 4 most deserving teams and seed them #1 through #4. Once the bracket is set, we will throw the historical matchups into the game simulator over at What If Sports, a complex algorithm that simulates any matchup of teams from 1996 to the present. We will simulate each matchup 25 times for a more accurate sample size, and report the series results and average score. How different would the college football landscape look if the 4-team playoff had come 16 years sooner? Would the SEC still have held the crystal trophy for 7 straight seasons? Would Oregon have a championship by now? How would the famous #3 teams such as 2000 Miami, 2003 USC, 2004 Auburn, and 2011 Oklahoma State fare with a shot at glory? Would the BCS busters prove themselves? Let the games begin - here's what should have been: 1999 SEASON BACKGROUND & SELECTION COMMITTEE Florida State beat Virginia Tech in the 1999 championship game, Bobby Bowden’s second national title. Michael Vick was a revolution at the quarterback position and Peter Warrick was the playmaker for the Noles. The ACC and Big East were represented as the only two undefeated teams from the BCS conferences—what a year for the Bowl Championship Series. Nebraska finished the regular season at number three after slipping up against #18 Texas 24-20, but later defeated them in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Cornhuskers went 3-1 against the top 25 including a 41-15 stomping of fifth-ranked Kansas State. As a conference champion with only one loss to a respectable team, Nebraska was an obvious choice as the third team in.
Wisconsin, Alabama, and Tennessee were the next three teams in the final AP poll at the close of the regular season. Tennessee and Alabama each finished with two losses, with Tennessee winning head-to-head 21-7. However, Alabama won three more games against top 25 opponents and also won the SEC. In addition, Florida completed a triangular dog-eat-dog link between these teams as the Gators beat Tennessee while losing to Alabama twice, including the SEC Championship game. With a tougher strength of schedule and a conference championship, the Crimson Tide would get the nod over Tennessee. That leaves Alabama and Wisconsin. The Badgers finished the season at number four in the AP poll after winning the Big Ten. The Tide lost to unranked Louisiana Tech and the Badgers lost to unranked Cincinnati. You can’t play the ‘bad loss’ card in this debate. In the end, both teams are deserving. However, with a 34-7 stomping over top-10 Florida in the last week of the season, we believe Alabama would have the momentum to carry them through to the Playoff. 
1999 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
Florida State comes into this game with a difficult matchup. Of course, there will never be an easy playoff matchup, but Alabama was probably the hottest team in the country heading into this game with two top-ten wins in the final three weeks of the season (#8 Mississippi State and #5 Florida). The Seminoles proved to be much better than their SEC counterparts. FSU won 14 games to 11 by an average score of 27-22.
Virginia Tech was even more dominant in its semifinal matchup. Vick proved to be the better QB in a battle of dynamic signal-callers with Big XII Offensive Player of the Year and future Heisman winner Eric Crouch under center for the Huskers. The Hokies won 16 games to 9 with an average score of 24-19. So the BCS got it right. Florida State and Virginia Tech left no controversy in 1999 as the two-team model was perfect. The simulations were unbelievably tight as Florida State won 14 games to 11, but the average score was 23.88-23.72. What a year for college football that would have only been more exciting with two more games. 
LINKS to our other CFB Simulation Features:
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