After decades of dreaming about it, years demanding it, and months arguing about it, the Playoff Era is finally here. The old BCS system would have produced a National Championship Game of #1 Florida State (only undefeated) and #2 Alabama (SEC Champion), but with both of those squads losing in the National Semifinals, the new system is instantly validated.
This offseason, we will take the role of the Selection Committee and look at how every BCS season (1998-2013) would have played out in the current College Football Playoff setup. As a staff, we will analyze, debate, and ultimately select the 4 most deserving teams and seed them #1 through #4. Once the bracket is set, we will throw the historical matchups into the game simulator over at What If Sports, a complex algorithm that simulates any matchup of teams from 1996 to the present. We will simulate each matchup 25 times for a more accurate sample size, and report the series results and average score. How different would the college football landscape look if the 4-team playoff had come 16 years sooner? Would the SEC still have held the crystal trophy for 7 straight seasons? Would Oregon have a championship by now? How would the famous #3 teams such as 2000 Miami, 2003 USC, 2004 Auburn, and 2011 Oklahoma State fare with a shot at glory? Would the BCS busters prove themselves? Let the games begin - here's what should have been: 2009 SEASON BACKGROUND & SELECTION COMMITTEE 2009 was tailor-made for the 4 team playoff. The last AP poll of the regular season featured four undefeated teams in the top 4: 1. Alabama 2. Texas 3. TCU 4. Cincinnati. The only question is how do you distinguish between two undefeated teams from two non-BCS conferences? Or do you pick 12-1 Florida over both of them? Boise State finished sixth in the AP poll after going undefeated. Boise State’s claim to fame was an early season 19-8 victory over #14 Oregon. TCU looked a little better and played a more difficult out-of-conference schedule including games against Virginia and Clemson. TCU was seen as the better team and played a more difficult schedule. While Florida would certainly get a look by the committee, TCU and Boise State earned enough respect in prior seasons to maintain their positions given an undefeated season.
2009 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
The computers love Nick Saban. The humans do as well. If you just look with your eyes, you know that the Crimson Tide have been the gold standard since 2009 and fortunately the simulations haven't disagreed because we probably wouldn't have published this article. Alabama rolled over a Brian Kelly-less Cincinnati team 15 of 25 times. Of course, you may remember the Bearcats being outclassed by Florida in the Sugar Bowl, but the coaching change could have had a big impact.
The Horned Frogs won in the other semifinal--and the State Championship--in a series against Texas. It was just about as close of a series as you can imagine, but Gary Patterson's team prevailed despite losing the aggregate score. TCU won 13 games to Texas' 12. Not to be outdone by one epic series, the National Championship Game (series) was also decided by one game. The Crimson Tide won the series 13 games to 12 games, but also won the aggregate score by an average 29-24. TCU hid behind the facade of a non-AQ conference, but was clearly a force. Just as Patterson proved in 2014, the TCU program has been elite for the better part of this decade. 
LINKS to our other CFB Simulation Features:
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