2007 College Football Playoff Simulation

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF SIMULATION

2007 EDITION

BRETT CIANCIA and MIKE NOWOSWIAT
February 2015

After decades of dreaming about it, years demanding it, and months arguing about it, the Playoff Era is finally here. The old BCS system would have produced a National Championship Game of #1 Florida State (only undefeated) and #2 Alabama (SEC Champion), but with both of those squads losing in the National Semifinals, the new system is instantly validated.

This offseason, we will take the role of the Selection Committee and look at how every BCS season (1998-2013) would have played out in the current College Football Playoff setup. As a staff, we will analyze, debate, and ultimately select the 4 most deserving teams and seed them #1 through #4. Once the bracket is set, we will throw the historical matchups into the game simulator over at What If Sports, a complex algorithm that simulates any matchup of teams from 1996 to the present. We will simulate each matchup 25 times for a more accurate sample size, and report the series results and average score.

How different would the college football landscape look if the 4-team playoff had come 16 years sooner? Would the SEC still have held the crystal trophy for 7 straight seasons? Would Oregon have a championship by now? How would the famous #3 teams such as 2000 Miami, 2003 USC, 2004 Auburn, and 2011 Oklahoma State fare with a shot at glory? Would the BCS busters prove themselves?

Let the games begin - here's what should have been:

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2007 SEASON BACKGROUND & SELECTION COMMITTEE

As one of the craziest seasons on file with the most teams ranked number one or number two, it would have been fitting if there was a playoff. Heck, this might have been a great year for a Sweet Sixteen. Ohio State, LSU, and Oklahoma all finished the season as conference champions and finished as the top three in the AP poll. The Big XII had one of its stronger years with the surprising emergence of Kansas and Missouri. The Sooners handed Missouri both of its losses including the Big XII Championship Game when the Tigers were ranked number one in the country.

Georgia, Virginia Tech, and USC were the next three schools considered for the last spot. Keep in mind, 2006 was the first year the SEC started its run of National Championships and the idea of ‘SEC dominance’ was not quite as prevalent at this point. After failing to win its division, Georgia wasn’t considered. Virginia Tech won the ACC and only had two losses, both to teams ranked number two at the time of the game. LSU dismantled the Hokies 48-7 and Boston College won 14-10 behind a Matt Ryan-led comeback. Virginia Tech had redemption in the ACC Championship Game, but BC was fading at that point. The ACC lacked a dominant team at the time and Virginia Tech didn’t quite look as good as Georgia or USC. The Trojans were upset by Stanford as Jim Harbaugh was beginning his Stanford turnaround and lost to #5 Oregon. USC looked just a little better than Virginia Tech while still winning the Pac-10. We feel the Trojans would have been selected by the committee as the fourth seed.

2007 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

The 2007 College Football Playoff proved that Ohio State was a fluke, not that the SEC is head-and-shoulders above every other conference. Almost as disappointing as Vernon Gholston's NFL career, the Buckeyes had us all fooled. The Trojans handled the top seed 16 times in 25 simulations, including an opening game stomping 48-17. On the other side of the bracket, the Tigers fell to Bob Stoops' Sooners 16 games to 9 by an average score of 31-24.

In a battle of the early-2000s elites, Oklahoma won a decisive 17 times. Of course, Big Game Bob lost the first game of the series, but eventually the Big 12 prevailed over the Pac-10. If this simulation is an accurate indicator, it is amazing how the SEC turned some good fortune into an overwhelming hype machine. The SEC has been the most consistent and best conference of late, but its National Title performances took the league perception to another level. Nobody stopped to question if Ohio State was overrated, but rather jumped to crown the mighty conference.