2015 SEC West Division Preview

2015 SEC Western Division Preview

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
August 1st, 2015

1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

PLAYOFF PICK

Alabama has been placed inside the top five of the Coaches’ Poll for the fifth time in the last seven years to start the season. With three national championships in that stretch, the Crimson Tide is truly a modern day dynasty. And with only 10 starters back, most teams would be entering a rebuilding year. Okay, we can acknowledge the fact that this program doesn’t rebuild, it reloads, but to be picked to win the SEC West with only 10 starters back is truly ridiculous. But then again, reeling in the top-ranked recruiting class each of the past five years is also ridiculous. And considering that Alabama has been known for its defense in the Saban era—including the historic 2011 unit that allowed only 8.2 points per game—and returns seven players from last year’s team, which still ranked as the sixth best defense in the country, this team should be ranked in the top five.

If there are only 10 starters back and seven are on defense…uh-oh, only three players return on offense. However, in 2009, which ended in a National Title, only four starters returned on offense. And in one season, Lane Kiffin already seems to be the best offensive coordinator under Nick Saban despite coaches like Jim McElwain holding that position. But this year, players like Amari Cooper, Blake Sims, Arie Kouandjio, Austin Shepherd, and TJ Yeldon are all gone. The offensive line should be another very good group as it averaged over 5.0 yards per carry since 2009 and returns its stalwart Cam Robinson. And perhaps even more impressive has been the Tide’s ability to replace running backs after Trent Richardson seemingly upgraded Heisman winner Mark Ingram in 2010, and Derrick Henry essentially unseated TJ Yeldon as the feature back last year despite Yeldon’s supreme talent. Now, Henry will try to avoid the same thing happening to him as 5-star running back Damien Harris arrives to Tuscaloosa after previously committing to Michigan. Along with the super athletic OJ Howard moving into the starting lineup at tight end, about four of those lost starters have been accounted for, and the production from last season could be matched, if not exceeded. But with the losses of Blake Sims, Amari Cooper, DeAndrew White, and Christion Jones, this passing attack must start at square one. After improving the passing attack from 248 yards per game in 2013 to 278 yards per game in 2014 despite losing AJ McCarron, it’s reasonable to expect this passing attack to drop somewhere back to 240-260 yards per game range. Whether Jake Coker or David Cornwell takes over at starter, there will be talented receivers to target, even if a Biletnikoff winner isn’t on this roster. Over the past four years, this offense has averaged 34.8, 38.7, 38.2, and 36.9 points per game. The Sims to Cooper connection might have been a prettier way to score about 36 points per game, but this offense should continue to put points on the board at the same rate as previous teams.

The defense has been truly dominant in the Saban era. It certainly receives all the warranted acclaim and recognition when the Tide wins the National Title, but it has also been the reason for down years as well. Of course, a down year in Alabama’s terms could mean a birth into the inaugural College Football Playoff and losing a tight game to the eventual National Champions. And a down year for the defense might mean giving up only 18.4 points per game and allowing opponents to rush for 3.2 yards per carry. However, last year’s 18.4 points per game was by far the worse year since 2007, when the defense allowed 22 points per game. The secondary wasn’t chock full of first round picks—at least first round picks in the immediate NFL Draft—and the offensive pace may have hurt this defense. With the offense passing more than it used to, hence lengthening the game, the Tide defense faced 108 more plays than the 2012 team faced. If you adjust the 10.9 points per game average in 2012 to the additional number of snaps last year’s defense faced, you’d have a new average of 12.3. While the 2012 defense was clearly better than last year’s, Kiffin’s offensive play calling had a negative effect on the defense’s performance. But with Kiffin back for round two, this defense must get back to that 11-14 point per game average to have a shot at winning the national title in 2015. Fortunately, the secondary returns a lot of talent and should improve over last year’s numbers. Four 5-star defensive backs have come in the 2014 and 2015 recruiting classes including Tony Brown and Marlon Humphrey who should improve the overall play at cornerback as they enter their second year. And now that I’ve addressed the one weakness from last year’s team, I can rave about the front seven, which is probably the best front seven in football. Reggie Ragland, Dillon Lee, Reuben Foster, and Denzel Devall will be one of the best second levels of any Alabama defense in recent memory. And in front of them, A’Shawn Robinson is a true run-stuffer and Jonathan Allen may be the best 3-4 DE in Tuscaloosa since Marcell Dareus. With players like DJ Pettway and former number one overall recruit Da’Shawn Hand coming off the bench, this front is ridiculous.

Unfortunately, the Tide does have a tough draw out of the East with Georgia and Tennessee. With the Playoff Committee seemingly rewarding teams for their out-of-conference schedules and not necessarily their in-conference schedules, drawing either team doesn’t have much of a positive spin. With Wisconsin on the docket to boost that out-of-conference schedule, this may be the most difficult lineup in the country. Wisconsin may take a step back as they are breaking in a new coach, and Tennessee may not be ready for Alabama in Tuscaloosa, but a trip to Athens certainly puts the Tide at a disadvantage in the SEC West. But with some timely games against Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Monroe, and Charleston Southern before Ole Miss, Georgia, and Auburn, respectively, there will be adequate breaks before nearly every big game. And with what should be an improved defense, it seems like this division should once again come down to Alabama, Auburn, or LSU. And with the most depth on defense, I’m going with the Crimson Tide.

2. AUBURN TIGERS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

After a worst-to-first turnaround from 2012 to 2013, Auburn seemed to finally find stability in its program. Despite a national championship in 2010, the roster was overly reliant on Cam Newton and Nick Fairley, and we didn’t know if Gene Chizik or Gus Malzahn was responsible for turning the program around in each coach’s first season at Auburn. But by the end of the season in 2013, the Tigers were a more well-balanced attack that nobody could stop and Gus Malzahn, the real mastermind behind the 2010 title, was at the helm. Now with the addition of defensive guru Will Muschamp as defensive coordinator, this program could not be in a better place. With eight starters back on defense, this unit will look to improve on its 400 yards allowed per game. And on offense, everyone will be looking to see how promising junior Jeremy Johnson takes over for one of the best quarterbacks in school history, Nick Marshall. The Tigers were ranked in the top 10 for most of last season, but fell apart at the end with losses to Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, and Wisconsin, all formidable opponents. Make no mistake, the 2014 Auburn team was very good and very talented, and with 10 starters to replace, it will be no easy task.

Still, the offseason is slow, and Auburn fans can’t help but let their imaginations run wild at the thought of a career 73% passer take over this Gus Malzahn system. Jeremy Johnson was a top recruit out of high school who not only has the potential to be the best passer ever to play at Auburn, but also has enough mobility and size to be a force in the run game. He certainly will not be confused for Marshall, who was fast enough to play defensive back at Georgia, but Johnson should be able to use his size kind of like Logan Thomas did at Virginia Tech, who routinely ran over linebackers in short yardage situations. And while this offense needs to replace players like Sammie Coates and Cameron Artis-Payne, the four returning starters on offense are all impact players at important positions. Duke Williams may not have been the deep threat that Coates was, but he ended up being a more reliable target that personifies the term “catch radius.” And while neither Cameron Artis-Payne nor Corey Grant returns at running back, the potential for improvement is real with former 5-star recruits Jovon Robinson and Roc Thomas running the ball. In Malzahn’s five years at Auburn, the Tigers rushed for under 5.0 yards per carry only once. And with the returns of Shon Coleman, Avery Young, and Alex Kozan, who missed all of last year with an injured back, this offensive line should still be a very good unit. And with promising young talents like Austin Golson and Braden Smith rounding out the starting five, this unit has the potential to actually improve from last year despite losing All-Everything center Reese Dismukes and long-time starter Chad Slade. With a better passer in Jeremy Johnson, these Tigers have the potential to be one of the best offenses in the country, and better suited to win a national championship.

Will Muschamp has been happy to inherit such a talented front seven in his first season at Auburn. With former top recruits like Montravius Adams and Carl Lawson—whose return will be huge after tearing his ACL last year—already in the fold, Muschamp was able to lure in 5-star recruit Byron Coward, who should only help to improve the pass rush with players like Lawson and Dontavius Russell. It feels like Kris Frost was a 5-star recruit in 1999, but nonetheless returns once again to pair up with Cassanova McKinzy to give the Tigers arguably the best linebacker duo in the country. With Jeff Holland and Tre’ Williams also on the roster, this is a seriously deep group that should give Auburn its best rush defense since the national champion 2010 team. If the secondary, which has some talented players itself, can step up, there is no reason why Will Muschamp can’t mold this defense into one of the best units in the country. With players like 2nd team All-SEC Jonathan Jones, Joshua Holsey, and Michigan transfer Blake Countess, the cornerbacks should be able to cover well. And even though players like Jonathon Mincy and Jermaine Whitehead do not return, I can’t imagine this group going anywhere but up, especially with an improved pass rush.

The Tigers have a difficult schedule that features Louisville in week 1 and Georgia from the East. Despite losing a ton of NFL talent, Louisville somehow reloads on defense with the return of Sheldon Rankins, James Burgess, and Keith Kelsey, and the addition of Big XII Defensive Player of the Year Devonte Fields and Georgia transfers Josh Harvey-Clemons and Shaq Wiggins. And you know that with Bobby Petrino in charge, it’s only a matter of time before this offense turns into a juggernaut. If the Tigers can run on this front seven, good things are sure to come for the rest of the season. And in a weaker SEC East, Georgia is the only legitimate Playoff contender so the Tigers are already at a huge disadvantage compared to everyone else (except Alabama) in the West. Still, given Malzahn’s track record, along with the addition of Will Muschamp and the premier of Jeremy Johnson as the full-time starter, this team certainly has a chance to reclaim the National Championship for the second time in six years.

3. LSU TIGERS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

The Tigers are lurking back from within the shadows they’ve been resting for the past couple years. Not too long ago, these Tigers had perhaps the best defense we’ve seen in this modern era. Unfortunately, also in 2011, Alabama had the only other defense that could hold a candle as the Crimson Tide won the season rematch in the National Title. The defense featured NFL players at every position, including the entire two-deep in the secondary. As that roster grew up and slowly moved on, LSU has slowly declined. After being ranked #1 in the country for 9 weeks of the 2011 season, LSU has held an average season rank of 5th in 2012, 12th in 2013, and 18th in 2014. Last year, only 12 starters returned and eight starters were freshmen or sophomores. This season, 15 starters return and not a single true freshman will be counted on to start in week one. With the amount of talent this program attracts, this roster will never be chock full of 4th and 5th year players, so this roster has a lot of experience. While the defense will once again be very stout, it is the offense that has an abundance of future NFL talent, particularly at the skill positions. If Brandon Harris can turn into one of those players himself, this offense could be to this team what the defense was to 2011’s squad.

As mentioned, Brandon Harris is expected to start at quarterback after splitting time with Anthony Jennings last year in his true freshman season. Harris, the former 4 star recruit, showed glimpses of his potential in the nine games he appeared in as he dazzled against teams like Mississippi State, but was not ready to be the full-time starter as he flopped in his one start against Auburn. Only Marcus Mariota posted a better passer rating in the second half of games in 2014 so he is certainly a strong competitor. In the spring game, Harris went a perfect 7-7 for two touchdowns in a simplified offense. While Harris can make plays on his feet, Anthony Jennings—who is facing suspension and may not even play this year—is the best option if the traditional Cam Cameron offense isn’t working. Harris struggled with the concepts of this offense last year, and was probably the main reason for his shortcomings, as well as his freshman inexperience. Given his talent, it’s no wonder he excelled in the vanilla offense of the spring games. However, the skill positions surrounding the Harris will be insane, and I don’t use that word lightly. Leonard Fournette came to Baton Rouge last year as the most hyped running back prospect since Adrian Peterson. And after a slow start, we all began to see why. Fournette is a grown man who looks the part of a grizzled NFL veteran that can run between the tackles and take it the distance from anywhere on the field (see bowl game). And just two seasons after losing Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr., this receiving corp could burn SEC secondaries to the same degree, led by Travin Dural and Malachi Dupre, the former number one wide receiver recruit in the country. And despite losing two starters including La’El Collins, this offensive line looks to reload with a lot of talented players like 2nd team All-SEC RT Vadal Alexander.

Yes, the defense lost some key players from last year’s team, but the attrition doesn’t even come close to the mass exodus of talent over the previous two offseasons. Barkevious Mingo, Sam Montgomery, Ego Ferguson, Anthony Johnson, Kevin Minter, Eric Reid, and Craig Loston, among many others, all had to be replaced in 2013 or 2014, which doesn’t even include some of the key losses from the great 2011 team. Roster turnover happens here, and while Danielle Hunter, Kwon Alexander, Ronald Martin, and Jalen Collins sounds like a lot to replace, I expect this defense to improve on last year’s top 5 finish in scoring defense. The greatest loss, however, may be defensive coordinator John Chavis, who moved on to College Station to try to repair the Aggie defense. Kevin Steele comes over from Alabama as a linebackers coach, but also holds experience as a coordinator, most recently at Clemson. In 2013, the defense only returned four starters and had their worse year since 2008. Last year, with seven starters back, the Tigers pass defense improved so much that despite giving up 0.6 more yards per carry, opponents scored 4.5 less points per game. With players like Tre’davious White, Ed Paris, Jamal Adams, and Jalen Mills in the secondary, this could be the best unit at “Secondary U” since that 2011 group. The Tigers should once again be stout up front with interior linemen Christian Lacouture and Davon Godchaux entering their second seasons as starters. If this group can find a pass rusher after recording an unusually-low 19 sacks in 2014, this defense will almost certainly improve so long as Steele doesn’t squander what’s given to him.

The Tigers didn’t schedule a premier non-conference season opener like they have in five of the past six seasons. However, I can’t say that is a major plus since they won all five of those games and the Playoff Committee clearly values strength of schedule. Albeit, any team in the SEC West should not have to worry about strength of schedule. The Tigers draw South Carolina and Florida in back-to-back weeks, which considering recent history, isn’t a bad year to draw this combination. The Gamecocks are coming off their worse season in recent memory and Florida is in limbo after hiring Jim McElwain despite having a talented roster. The Tigers’ season will be determined in November as they play Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Texas A&M in consecutive weeks. If they can manage a 3-1 record, look for a top-2 finish in the SEC West and a top-10 finish nationally.

4. OLE MISS REBELS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

After not making a bowl in 2010 or 2011, Hugh Freeze guided the Rebels to a Compass Bowl victory over Pittsburgh in his first season in Oxford. But Freeze’s national coming-out party was never on the football field. Rather it was on ESPN in early February, 2013 when Ole Miss, of all places, signed three out-of-state 5-star recruits after posting a 7-6 season. Robert Nkemdiche, Laremy Tunsil, and Laquon Treadwell now give the Rebels a trio of future first-round NFL draft picks and probable All-Americans in 2015. Of course, every other fanbase cried that Freeze was paying players because there was no way any recruit would want to go to Mississippi. Payments or not, Oxford is becoming a destination for blue chip recruits thanks to Freeze—and who could blame them? The Grove is a beautiful college football wonderland and there is a great feeling inside of Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. And now thanks to that 2013 recruiting class, Mississippi has steadily improved from 7-6 to 8-5 to 9-4 in each of the past three seasons. However, while very good, last year’s 9-4 record understates just how good the Rebels were as they played six weeks inside of the top 10, including three weeks ranked #3. After Laquon Treadwell went down in the most heartbreaking game of 2014, as well as the Rebels’ Playoff hopes, this team was simply deflated. With a new season to look forward to and revived Playoff hopes, the Rebels look to regain last year’s early season form.

The nephew of Jim Kelly, QB Chad Kelly has had a controversial start to his career after being kicked off Clemson’s football team and being arrested after soon arriving to Oxford last year. Kelly was a former High School All-American and has a lot of potential under center. However, he hasn’t won the job yet as Ryan Buchanan was said to be the leader after spring practices. Whoever the quarterback ends up being, he will be surrounded by a strong supporting cast and will not have huge expectations haunting him. Laquon Treadwell is arguably the best receiver in the nation, and Evan Engram is arguably the best tight end in the nation. Engram is essentially an uber-athletic jumbo receiver who plays sort of like Aaron Hernandez did at Florida. And the QB will also have the benefit of playing behind potentially the best offensive line in Freeze’s tenure. It has been solid in the past three seasons, averaging 4.1, 4.7, and 4.2 yards per carry, but it has never been able to take over games. With explosive players like RB Jaylen Walton, the Rebels had the 6th most 50+ yard rushes in the FBS, but only the 106th most 10+ yard rushes despite having one of the best linemen in the country in Laremy Tunsil. Justin Bell, Aaron Morris, and former blue chip recruit Rod Taylor, should provide the Rebels with a good trio of guards while Fahn Cooper is a high potential right tackle who should improve in his second year as starter. And given the anticipated improvement on the line and the experience that returns at the skill positions, whoever is handed the reigns at quarterback should be able to at least match Bo Wallace’s production last year. The three year starter probably regressed in his senior season as he completed less than 52% of his passes during five of the last seven games, a terrible stretch that also included 7 TDs and 8 interceptions. So while I don’t expect this offense to be confused with Oregon’s, a more consistent QB and a more powerful rushing game should result in a more effective unit.

Defense has been the calling card thus far in the Freeze era. Dave Wommack and Jason Jones have improved the defense by a considerable margin in each of the past three seasons, but this year will be the first time that they will need to replace key cogs. Serderius Bryant, Senquez Golson, and Cody Prewitt were three impact players in the back seven with Golson and Prewitt garnering All-American honors last year. And while Freeze doesn’t necessarily have All-Americans waiting in the wings, he found a few transfers to try to fill the voids. Cornerback Tee Shepard was a former top recruit who transferred from Notre Dame and sat out last season while Tony Bridges transferred from Junior College and figures to be the opposite starter. While the secondary should be solid, the strength of this defense lies in the front seven. Robert Nkemdiche helped improve both the pass rush and rush defense from the interior line as he became a star during his sophomore season. Nkemdiche is comparable to Ndamukong Suh, not only in their unique “N” names or their impact from the defensive interior, but also because of their athletic playing style that utilizes both strength and speed. His brother, Denzel, was a freshman All-American before falling out of favor during his sophomore year and regaining his freshman form last year, only to get injured and miss the last five games of the season. With his return, as well 2nd team All-SEC linebacker Tony Conner, this should once again be one of the best linebacker units in the nation. CJ Johnson was always an undersized defensive lineman who should make the transition to linebacker very well. It wouldn’t surprise me if this defense improved upon its already impressive 3.5 yards per carry.

The Rebels have a very favorable schedule—if there was ever such a thing in the SEC West—in 2015. First, the Rebels host UT Martin and Fresno State, the latter being a solid warm up game for a trip to Tuscaloosa. And if there was ever a time to get the Crimson Tide, it would be early in the season as eleven new starters will be settling into the starting lineup including a QB. Next, the SEC East draw of Vanderbilt and Florida is favorable considering Vanderbilt is the only “gimme” win there is in the SEC and Florida is in the midst of a major philosophical change as it transitions from Will Muschamp to Jim McElwain. And the Rebels get a bye week before their last two games against LSU and Mississippi State. So while Texas A&M, Auburn, and Arkansas should all be improved and will challenge the Rebels in a mini gauntlet beginning in week 8, this is probably the best schedule of any SEC West team.

5. TEXAS A&M AGGIES

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

Kevin Sumlin finds himself back at square one after becoming one of the hottest names in coaching after replacing Mike Sherman in College Station. In Sherman’s final season, the Aggies went 7-6 with losses to Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas State and Texas. With a top-10 preseason ranking, a 7-6 record was a huge disappointment, but this team was not a truly average team. Arkansas and Oklahoma State both defeated Texas A&M early in the season when the Hogs and Cowboys were ranked 7th and 18th by a combined 5 points. Arkansas and Oklahoma State both finished the season in the top 5 and were arguably the best teams not named Alabama and LSU. The Aggies then crushed a top-15 Baylor team led by RGIII 55-28 before losing to a solid Missouri team in overtime, top-10 Oklahoma, and top-15 Kansas State in 4OT. And with 18 returning starters upon Sumlin’s arrival, and a hidden Heisman winner at QB, the cupboard certainly wasn’t bare in 2012. To his credit, Sumlin took all that talent to an 11-2 season, but now he must prove that he isn’t Larry Coker circa 2001. After last season’s stomping over then-top-10 South Carolina, there wasn’t a doubt in anyone’s mind that the SEC Aggies had overtaken Texas as the premier team in the state. But given TCU and Baylor’s ascendance to the top of not only the Texas landscape, but the national landscape, as well as Charlie Strong’s track record before taking over Texas, Sumlin needs a big season in the worse way.

Fortunately, Sumlin took advantage of his two-and-an-half year success by raking in top recruits on both sides of the ball. Kyle Allen, Speedy Noil, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Christian Kirk make up an all-5-star air raid, which is Kevin Sumlin’s dream. Also, top receiver from 2014 Josh Reynolds returns to round out a stacked receiving corp. Allen, the former number one QB recruit, came on at the end of the season after taking over for Kenny Hill after the disaster in Tuscaloosa. Against Auburn, Allen recorded his first signature win of his career as he completed 19 of 29 passes for 277 yards and four touchdowns. When a freshman can come in and put it all together on the road against a top opponent, you typically have a future bonafide star. In the spring, Allen was the only scholarship QB on the roster, so if he goes down, this offense could be in trouble. Kyler Murray was a high 4-star recruit, but even Allen wasn’t good enough to start at the beginning of the year despite arriving in the spring. But if there was ever a freshman QB to make the immediate transition, it’s Murray—I hate to be cliché, but he has the “it” factor going on—who looks like a perfect combination of Johnny Manziel and Russell Wilson. The young, but talented, skill players are a year older and could be one of the best groups in the nation. However, the offensive line has been blessed with 1st round draft pick after 1st round draft pick after 1st round draft pick. From 2011 to 2013, the offense averaged over 5.0 yards per carry (anything over 4.0 is considered good). Given this extraordinarily high level of play, last year’s 4.6 yards per carry and respectable 27 sacks allowed were a disappointment, despite breaking in two new starters at QB. The Aggies are hoping the downward trend doesn’t continue in 2015. But with two draft picks to replace, it just might.

There should be no downward trend on defense as this group has been slowly stockpiling talent. Not to mention, famed defensive coordinator John Chavis was lured over from Baton Rouge to hopefully (one day) turn this Aggie defense into the 2011 LSU defense. After hitting rock bottom in 2013, giving up 32.2 points per game, 5.4 yards per carry, and allowing opposing QBs to post an average 136.5 passer rating, the Aggies rebounded to some degree in 2014, led by an infusion of young talent. And there is no better young talent than DE Myles Garrett, who may have only scratched his potential en route to an SEC freshman record of 11.5 sacks. He is the main reason for the Aggie sack total to jump from 21 in 2013 to 36 last year. And with ten 4-star or better recruits along the defensive line in the past three recruiting cycles, Garrett will not be alone in getting after the QB. And with eight 4-star or better recruits in the defensive backfield over that same 3-year span, this defense should certainly improve on its 19:5 touchdown to interception ratio. The linebacker corp does not have the luxury of having a two-deep of blue chip recruits. However, given Chavous’ experience in developing top-notch linebackers—and not all of them have been 5-star recruits—I anticipate an improvement here with true sophomores Otaro Alaka and Josh Walker stepping into starting roles. In the end, this defense is a high-ceiling, low-floor type of group. Aside from Garrett, nobody is truly feared on this defense. Yet, statistics will say that at least two or three more players will bud into big-time difference makers in 2015.

Let’s start with the obvious. At least the Aggies get to play Vanderbilt, which will not be the complete push-over it was in 2014, but it is still the most favorable draw you can get in the SEC. Also, a home game against South Carolina is pretty favorable given the state of that program. Considering the obvious improvement down the stretch, and the emergence of young talents like Kyle Allen and Myles Garrett, this team is certainly going to be better in 2014. Aside from LSU, there is not one team in this division that can definitively say the same thing. Sure, Arkansas, Auburn, and Ole Miss will probably improve, and Alabama will still be great, but this is college football, where the unexpected is the only certainty. When you have 16 returning starters, recent success, and a core of young stars, you will improve, and after a solid season—improvement is a great thing.

6. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

Bret Bielema has “it.” Whether you love or you hate the sunglasses and the little hair flip, or the in-your-face bravado, you have to admit that he is a great coach and you’d love to have him coaching your team. You know his philosophy of a power running game and a strong defense can win championships, and you love the fact that he has proven he can develop players and isn’t dependent on blue chip recruits. Last year, the offense improved from 101st in the country to 45th in scoring offense. And the defense improved from 89th in the country to 9th. Usually you gauge a coach’s progress in his third year. Imagine if Bielema had taken Arkansas’ defense from 89th to 48th to 9th. That would have been incredibly impressive! But no, he did that in just two years! Bielema is one of the great coaches in America and he seems to be going under the radar. Sure, the SEC West is tough every year, but what other coach can match his progress?

Last year the offense truly transformed from a Petrino offense to a Bielema offense. After scoring only 14 rushing touchdowns in 2013, the Hogs scored 31 on the ground last year. Even in losses, the offense could move the ball on the ground, averaging 4.41 yards per carry, a respectable number in wins. And with everyone back on the line except Brey Cook, this offense should do more of the same in 2015. Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins are back at running back to form the top duo in the country, and senior QB Brandon Allen is tailor-made for this offense. Allen didn’t have the best completion percentage (56%), but the Hogs took shots downfield and ranked 101st in attempts per game. The most important statistics are his 20 TDs and 5 interceptions. He knows how to operate this offense and take advantage of his strong running game. However, when the pressure was on him, he struggled. On third downs, the Razorbacks only completed 46% of their passes, good for 114th in the country. So when the running game stalled, so did the offense. In 2008, Wisconsin ranked 86th in third down completion percentage en route to the Badgers 7-6 record. In each of the next three seasons, Wisconsin ranked in the top 10 in third down completion percentage and finished with double-digit wins all season. If Allen can improve his efficiency in obvious passing downs, we could see Arkansas take a similar step forward from the same 7-6 record to an SEC contender.

While the offense returns nine of 11 starters and any sort of decline would be surprising, the defense is a little less unpredictable. Talented defensive linemen are hard to come by and the Razorbacks lose two studs in Trey Flowers and Darius Philon. The duo combined for 10.5 of the Hogs’ 24 sacks so their production will obviously be missed. However, Taiwan Johnson recorded 4.5 sacks and returns for his junior season. JaMichael Winston, Deatrich Wise, and new junior college transfer Jeremiah Ledbetter create a high-potential front, and if there isn’t much of a drop-off from last year’s top 10 defense, this defense will still be very good. Not to mention, four of the top eight recruits in 2014 and 2015 were defensive linemen. The cupboard is not bare. In the back seven, the only other player whose loss could create a major hole is All-American linebacker Martrell Spaight. For as good as the Razorback rushing attack was, the rush defense was nearly as imposing, only allowing 3.5 yards per carry. Fortunately, if the rush defense takes a step back in 2015, the secondary should be improved with the returns of Jared Collins, DJ Dean, and Rohan Gaines. In a tough SEC West, how this defense responds after losing some key players could be the difference between a first place finish and a last place finish.

Arkansas fans needs to maintain perspective. You always want a strong program over an individually strong season. While there will be some losers in the SEC West this year, and some teams will probably lose more games than they should, each program can compete on a national level. Just a few years ago, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss could not say the same. If Brandon Allen can improve as a passer, and be more than just a great game manager, and the defense can be almost as good as last year, Arkansas will not get lost in the shuffle. But even if they do, Bret Bielema makes Arkansas a national program—and that’s what fans should be excited about.

7. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

Mississippi State had the best season in recent memory for the program last year—a 10-3 record and a trip to the Orange Bowl. While things fell apart a bit at the end with a devastating loss to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl and a beat-down by Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl, there was a lot to be proud of in the 2014 campaign. Quarterback Dak Prescott emerged as one of the nation’s top players and was a Heisman candidate for most of the year. Further, the Bulldogs had some marquis wins that highlighted the season, most notably wins over LSU and Auburn that helped establish Mississippi State as one of the top teams in the country. While the Bulldogs do return Prescott and several other contributors to the 2014 team, this year looks to be a different story. The SEC West, with little surprise, should be the toughest division in college football. Despite all seven schools fielding impressive teams, someone always has to be last, and with the Bulldog’s lack of returning starters and a gauntlet of a schedule, it appears to be the team from Starkville that will be returning to the bottom of the West.

Mississippi State has the least returning starters in the SEC with an underwhelming number of seven, four on offense and three on defense. That said, they do return their best player in quarterback Dak Prescott, and the potential Heisman candidate has proven he can lead his team to big wins. However, Prescott is going to have to do a lot more on his own if the Bulldogs want to return to the 10 win mark. Mississippi State will surely miss 1st Team All-SEC right guard Ben Beckwith, three-year starting left tackle Blaine Clausell, and four-year stating center Dillon Day. Those are some difficult holes to fill and they will undoubtedly be exploited in the SEC West. After overpowering teams in the trenches last year with NFL size and old-man strength, Mississippi State averaged 5.2 yards per carry. Furthermore, the Bulldogs lost running back Josh Robinson early to the NFL and will have to count on more inexperienced backs such as Ashton Shumpert and Nick Gibson. The wide receiving corps is not immune to departures either; three starters will be gone this year and they will have to count on sophomore Donald Gray and junior Fred Ross to shoulder the load and give Prescott options down field. However, the player who struck the most fear into opponents was De'Runnya Wilson, who looks like a power forward catching jump balls against point guards.

The defensive line and linebackers both only return one starter and the defensive backs lose an additional three starters. Lack of experience is becoming a recurring theme, isn’t it? The Bulldogs will have to count on Senior defensive end Ryan Brown to anchor the line and Junior Linebacker Richie Brown (13 games played last year) to provide some veteran leadership and playmaking ability. However, the true stud of the group is defensive tackle Chris Jones, who made a big impact in his freshman season when he was named a freshman All-American. Without the luxury of playing in front of Benardrick McKinney, he will have his work cut out for him, and opposing teams will surely run for better than 4.2 yards per carry this season. Still, there are some talented players in this front like Jones that have the potential to step up. Cornerbacks Will Redmond and Taveze Calhoun should lead the defensive backs, but MSU will not be as deep this year which will be tough to compensate for in the West considering the secondary was a weakness last year.

With Coach Dan Mullen and Dak Prescott still around in Starkville, Mississippi State will be a very respectable team with the ability to upset some big names. However, with a schedule including LSU, Auburn, Alabama, and Ole Miss, the Bulldogs’ lack of experience and depth will prove to be difficult challenges to overcome. However, they avoid our top three teams in the SEC East, and draw Kentucky and Missouri. But the game-by-game scheduling does not do them any favors either. Aside from LSU, the six most difficult games come in two big clusters, the biggest being a four week stretch in November. If this team played in the SEC East, I'd consider picking them as high as third. But this division is no joke, and someone has to finish last.

2015 SEC Western Division Preview

1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

PLAYOFF PICK

2. AUBURN TIGERS

3. LSU TIGERS

4. OLE MISS REBELS

5. TEXAS A&M AGGIES

6. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS

7. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS

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2015 SEC Western Division Preview

1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

PLAYOFF PICK

2. AUBURN TIGERS

3. LSU TIGERS

4. OLE MISS REBELS

5. TEXAS A&M AGGIES

6. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS

7. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS

PICK SIX PREVIEWS ON THE RADIO:

2015 PREVIEWQUICK LINKS

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2015 PREVIEW
QUICK LINKS