After decades of dreaming about it, years demanding it, and months arguing about it, the Playoff Era is finally here. The old BCS system would have produced a National Championship Game of #1 Florida State (only undefeated) and #2 Alabama (SEC Champion), but with both of those squads losing in the National Semifinals, the new system is instantly validated.
This offseason, we will take the role of the Selection Committee and look at how every BCS season (1998-2013) would have played out in the current College Football Playoff setup. As a staff, we will analyze, debate, and ultimately select the 4 most deserving teams and seed them #1 through #4. Once the bracket is set, we will throw the historical matchups into the game simulator over at What If Sports, a complex algorithm that simulates any matchup of teams from 1996 to the present. We will simulate each matchup 25 times for a more accurate sample size, and report the series results and average score. How different would the college football landscape look if the 4-team playoff had come 16 years sooner? Would the SEC still have held the crystal trophy for 7 straight seasons? Would Oregon have a championship by now? How would the famous #3 teams such as 2000 Miami, 2003 USC, 2004 Auburn, and 2011 Oklahoma State fare with a shot at glory? Would the BCS busters prove themselves? Let the games begin - here's what should have been: 2000 SEASON BACKGROUND & SELECTION COMMITTEE Ranked just #19 in the preseason polls, Oklahoma surged to an undefeated season under 2nd-year head coach Bob Stoops. The Sooners won the Big 12 Championship Game and finished as the only 12-0 team, clearly earning the #1 seed. From there, it was a total mess with four one-loss teams vying for three playoff spots - and they all played each other throughout the season. In the Pac-10, Washington and Oregon State were 3-way co-champs (7-1) but UW beat OSU 33-30 in their head-to-head meeting, giving them the nod. Miami and Florida State both ran the table in the Big East and ACC, respectively. But each finished with a loss. In what became known as "Wide Right III," Florida State missed the game-tying field goal and lost to Miami 27-24. In another non-conference matchup, Miami lost to Washington 34-29. Seeding these three teams is a tough assignment, but it is clear that the group of Oklahoma, FSU, Miami, and Washington was clearly the best and most deserving teams for the playoff. Virginia Tech finished 10-1 but was thrashed by Miami in their only ranked game 41-21. Ultimately, the three-team mess was sorted out by seeding FSU, Miami, Washington, in that order. FSU and Miami had more impressive victories against top 5 opponents, and their loses were to top 5 opponents while Washington played a less rigorous schedule. The distinction between #2 and #3 was negligible considering they would play each other at a neutral site regardless.
2000 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
Josh Heupel and his #1 Sooners defended their high ranking and made no doubts in their series, winning 19 of 25 simulated matchups over Washington with an average score of 34-17. Stoops' defense even pitched 4 shutouts out of 25 games.
This rematch of Wide Right III was on neutral turf, and the Seminoles got some revenge, winning the series 17 games to 8. The average score was ironically a 3-point FSU victory, 30-27. This time the Playoff bracket resulted in the same National Championship Game that the BCS system produced: Oklahoma vs. Florida State. But this time, the computer simulations favored Florida State. Yes, the 2000 Sooners beat the 2000 Seminoles 13-2 in real life. The computers spoke differently, with Heisman-winner Chris Weinke and FSU winning the series 21 games to 4, signifying that the 2001 Orange Bowl was actually an upset. This decisive series victory gives the Seminoles their 3rd straight College Football Playoff Championship (1998, 1999, 2000), which would be the first program to win 3 straight titles since 1934-1936 Minnesota. 
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