After decades of dreaming about it, years demanding it, and months arguing about it, the Playoff Era is finally here. The old BCS system would have produced a National Championship Game of #1 Florida State (only undefeated) and #2 Alabama (SEC Champion), but with both of those squads losing in the National Semifinals, the new system is instantly validated.
This offseason, we will take the role of the Selection Committee and look at how every BCS season (1998-2013) would have played out in the current College Football Playoff setup. As a staff, we will analyze, debate, and ultimately select the 4 most deserving teams and seed them #1 through #4. Once the bracket is set, we will throw the historical matchups into the game simulator over at What If Sports, a complex algorithm that simulates any matchup of teams from 1996 to the present. We will simulate each matchup 25 times for a more accurate sample size, and report the series results and average score. How different would the college football landscape look if the 4-team playoff had come 16 years sooner? Would the SEC still have held the crystal trophy for 7 straight seasons? Would Oregon have a championship by now? How would the famous #3 teams such as 2000 Miami, 2003 USC, 2004 Auburn, and 2011 Oklahoma State fare with a shot at glory? Would the BCS busters prove themselves? Let the games begin - here's what should have been: 2013 SEASON BACKGROUND & SELECTION COMMITTEE 2013 Florida State was one of the most dominant teams we’ve ever seen. Jameis Winston put together a flawless season as the freshman was a superstar from the get-go. Florida State and Auburn were pretty easy choices for the BCS National Championship Game, and would have been the top two seeds in the event of a playoff. We gave Alabama the nod as it seemed all season long that Florida State and Alabama were the two elite teams in the country. Alabama lost in the most improbable fashion to a top-5 Auburn team and was otherwise perfect. The Tide were an obvious selection.
Stanford and Michigan State were the two choices for the last spot. Stanford played a tough schedule and won each of the six top 25 opponents it played. However, the Cardinal was upset twice to unranked opponents. Michigan State upset #2 Ohio State behind its physical defense and smash-mouth offense. While the Big Ten was weaker than the Pac-12, Michigan State looked to be a little better than Stanford. One upset is forgivable, but two losses to inferior opponents would ultimately be Stanford’s downfall. Baylor won the Big XII at 11-1, but a weaker schedule and a 49-17 late-season loss to Oklahoma State severely hurt the Bears’ cause. While Alabama was the pick at three, we assumed the committee would place the three conference champions above the Tide thus eliminating a rematch of the Iron Bowl in the first round of the Playoff. We haven’t seen yet how the real-life committee will act in the event of a similar scheduling conflict. 
2013 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
The Crimson Tide were the forgotten team. Florida State was dominant all year long after going undefeated and winning the National Title. That's all she wrote. That's what we remember. The 2013 Alabama team won't be remembered for its greatness because it was Alabama. This team didn't win the National Title, which is the standard in Tuscaloosa so we forgot them. However, for as much as the computers liked the 2013 Seminoles, they liked the Crimson Tide just a little bit better. Alabama won the series 14-11 as Nick Saban got revenge over Jameis Winston for spurning the home-state Tide in high school.
Michigan State was really the surprise team in this final four. The Big Ten's perception certainly hurt the Spartans, but a College Football Playoff would have given them their fair shot on the field. And according to the simulations, the Big Ten school was a force to be reckoned with, especially considering how well Auburn was playing at the end of the season. Michigan State, led by a great defense, won the series convincingly, 16 games to nine by an average score of 29-26. In the National Championship Game, the Crimson Tide rolled over the Spartans. If it weren't for a crazy Iron Bowl, who knows how history would have written itself. According to the simulation, Alabama's modern dynasty would have been even more impressive. Four of the 25 simulations Alabama limited the Spartan offense to a touchdown or less. Once again, Roll Tide. 
LINKS to our other CFB Simulation Features:
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