After decades of dreaming about it, years demanding it, and months arguing about it, the Playoff Era is finally here. The old BCS system would have produced a National Championship Game of #1 Florida State (only undefeated) and #2 Alabama (SEC Champion), but with both of those squads losing in the National Semifinals, the new system is instantly validated.
This offseason, we will take the role of the Selection Committee and look at how every BCS season (1998-2013) would have played out in the current College Football Playoff setup. As a staff, we will analyze, debate, and ultimately select the 4 most deserving teams and seed them #1 through #4. Once the bracket is set, we will throw the historical matchups into the game simulator over at What If Sports, a complex algorithm that simulates any matchup of teams from 1996 to the present. We will simulate each matchup 25 times for a more accurate sample size, and report the series results and average score. How different would the college football landscape look if the 4-team playoff had come 16 years sooner? Would the SEC still have held the crystal trophy for 7 straight seasons? Would Oregon have a championship by now? How would the famous #3 teams such as 2000 Miami, 2003 USC, 2004 Auburn, and 2011 Oklahoma State fare with a shot at glory? Would the BCS busters prove themselves? Let the games begin - here's what should have been: SEASON BACKGROUND & SELECTION COMMITTEE
We had a BCS National Champion AND an AP National Champion. Yeah…a playoff might have helped. Oklahoma was the #1 team in the country all year heading into the Big 12 Championship Game where it fell flat on its face against Kansas State in a 35-7 loss. Jason White was the Heisman winner and the Sooners proved to be the top team all year long, which resulted in the number one BCS ranking despite the CCG loss. USC and LSU finished second and third in the AP, respectively, but LSU got the coveted number two BCS ranking. From there, LSU defeated Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl for the BCS National Title while USC captured the AP National Title. LSU had a tougher schedule, which favored them in the computers while USC won nearly every game by at least twenty points—the humans favored the Trojans. These three teams were the easy picks for spots 1-3, and the fourth spot wasn’t much harder to decide. Michigan finished the regular season fourth in the AP poll after a decisive victory over #4 Ohio State 35-21. The Wolverines narrowly lost their two games to two top-25 opponents. Other teams considered for the fourth spot included Florida State, Georgia, and Texas. FSU played a weaker schedule than Michigan while Georgia and Texas failed to win their conferences. Michigan was the clear choice.
2003 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
The Sooners squared off against Michigan in the first semifinal game. Lloyd Carr's Wolverines seemed to be the odd team out as Oklahoma was the top seed and USC and LSU eventually split the National Title. And like perception, Michigan was indeed the odd team out with Oklahoma cruising to 19 wins in 25 simulated games.
The game everyone would love to go back and see was not quite as tight as expected. The 2003 Trojans proved that their dominance wasn't a result of a softer schedule. The team that featured 52 future NFL players including QB Matt Leinart and WR Mike Williams won 20 games to 5. The Trojans put up 47 on a good Tiger defense in three of those games and cruised to an average 32-20 win. However, it was the Sooners who prevailed in the end, which indicates the 2004 Sugar Bowl may have been an upset, or that LSU was a tougher matchup for Oklahoma than USC. Oklahoma won a tight simulated series 14 games to 11 by an average field goal margin. 
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