2015 Big Ten West Division Preview

BRETT CIANCIA
August 1st, 2015

1. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

It would be nice if we never had to hear the Bo Pelini – Nick Saban comparison stat ever again. The one about how they are the only coaches to have won 9+ games in each of the last 7 seasons. While factually correct at face value, there was a whole other darkside to the stat regarding Nebraska’s former head coach. To outsiders, Nebraska seemed foolish to have fired a consistent winner, and their rabid fan base looked insatiable. Yes, the mid-1990s will probably never be repeated here. Heck, they probably wont be repeated anywhere. It was a run that saw a stoic leader bring his program to a 5-year pinnacle that featured a 60-3 record, three national championships, and a field goal short of a fourth.

While no one is expecting consecutive national championships led by a reincarnated Tommie Frazier, the fans do expect a hard-nosed team to compete for conference titles, to join the national playoff discussion occasionally, and to go toe-to-toe with the other top Big Ten brands on Signing Day. They also expect for their head coach, the highest paid state employee, to conduct himself professionally and to NOT push away their unmatched loyalty with profanity-laced tirades. That’s all.

So yes, the Pelini era featured a string of 9 and 10-win seasons, but was also littered with defensive collapses on the national scale that became too much to regularly stomach. The distracting and unprofessional behavior from Bo just made the blowout losses feel worse. Enter Mike Riley, who is virtually the exact opposite of Pelini. The mild-mannered veteran brings most of his staff from Oregon State, where they have countless years of experience together, and a penchant for making more from less.

OFFENSE
Riley has been known to adapt his offensive system to the player personnel he has on the roster. Here, it is a power-run based team, with heavy doses of toss and option plays. The run-first, mobile quarterbacks are certainly a sharp contrast to pocket-passers he churned out at Oregon State for a decade. That said, Riley calls third-year starter Tommy Armstrong a “very natural thrower” and the offensive style will fall somewhere between the old Nebraska and Riley’s aerial focus. His offensive coordinator helped bring Eli Manning out of a rut in New York, and is fittingly nicknamed the “Quarterback Whisperer.” While Armstrong is known for mobility, he has progressed through the air (2695 yards, 53.3%, 22 TD to 12 INT), and a full offseason with this staff should create a major boost. The previous staff lacked quarterback development expertise, so guys like Taylor Martinez would have to go seek external quarterback “gurus.” Well, now there are two gurus in Lincoln, on-site. With such a stable of explosive receivers, I see a successful transition season. All-time receiving yards leader Kenny Bell departs, but there is no shortage of playmakers. Jordan Westerkamp, the guy who caught the ball behind his back, leads the unit and is as sure-handed as they come. Meanwhile, punt returner sensation De’Mornay Pierson-El will be featured in the slot: a perfect guy for fly sweeps and jet motions. Jamal Turner, a former option quarterback, returns from missing 2014 with an injury, and is as elusive as they come. Alonzo Moore is another unproven, yet high-ceiling guy. And, for the first time in a while, the tight ends will be relevant in the Nebraska offense – look for Cethan Carter to break out this fall. It will be 'running back by committee,' at least at first, in the aftermath of the Ameer Abdullah era. Terrell Newby looks like most complete back, but they all lack significant game experience (except Imani Cross, but he seems to have fallen down the depth chart). Technically just 2 starters return to the offensive line, but overall the experience in this unit is up. Captain left tackle Alex Lewis will contend for all-conference honors, and former JUCO Chongo Kondolo is ready for a starting role.

Many pundits nationwide are writing off this Nebraska offense, simply due to the ‘transition year’ angle. No, guys, Armstrong is not going to be passing the ball 60 times a game like Sean Canfield and Sean Mannion did at Oregon State. This will be a mix of the two offenses, and I think Armstrong has the tools (and now the coaching) to be an effective passer. As long as he can raise his accuracy a little bit, enough to effectively distribute the ball out to these playmakers, I think a pleasant surprise could come in Year 1 of the Riley Era.

DEFENSE
Riley’s longtime defensive coordinator Mark Banker is the new leader of the Blackshirts, a tradition that needs to find its toughness again. This unit was pushed around by the likes of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin, who took out Melvin Gordon after breaking the single-game rushing record in just 3 quarters. Ouch. Six starters return, but some of the listed “non-starters” have contributed significantly over the past two seasons. The defensive line might have even improved, even in the departure of star DE Randy Gregory. The defensive tackle tandem of Vincent Valentine and Maliek Collins has the middle of the line looking stout again. Michael Rose-Ivey is back after missing 2014, and despite the small sample, I was very impressed with him as a young player. Overlooked nationally, but I am calling for a breakout season. Another potentially overlooked guy is Nate Gerry, who is the ace ballhawker (5 interceptions) but also punishes the ballcarrier. I think Banker will install, or unearth, some underlying toughness, and get this talented bunch to play to their high potential. Only time will tell if the Blackshirts have truly returned.

OUTLOOK
Nebraska has won its last 29 home openers, but the streak will be tested when gritty BYU comes to Lincoln. After the tough opener, Nebraska also plays at Miami, a location that has haunted the Husker program in the 1980s and 1990s. They draw Rutgers and Michigan State out of the East Division, but Nebraska has played MSU very tough. The true key is that both the MSU game and the West Division title against Wisconsin are both at home, in front of "The Greatest Fans In College Football." Despite the entire nation selecting Wisconsin to win the West, I am calling for Nebraska to do so.

2. WISCONSIN BADGERS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

What is the takeaway from the 2014 Wisconsin football season? It opened with a loss to LSU in a game that Wisconsin had in control until a late Melvin Gordon injury shifted the momentum. The Badgers inexplicably dropped a game at Northwestern, and then dropped out of the top 25 rankings. But then Melvin Gordon kept churning into the record books setting the single-game record (408 yards) against Nebraska, and nearly setting the single season rushing record (2587 yards). That specific game was an absolute blowout, as the Badgers ripped apart the Huskers (again) 59-24. But then Wisconsin was on the other end of destruction in the Big Ten Championship when the Playoff-hungry Buckeyes played a perfect game, winning 59-0. These severe ups and downs came and went throughout the season, but nothing was as shocking as the news that Gary Andersen was heading to Oregon State after just 2 seasons here. Apparently players were laughing when they first heard the news because it was so unbelievable that it had to be a practical joke. Well, it was no April Fools. Andersen is gone, and Paul Chryst returns to Madison where he quarterbacked from 1986 to 1988 and coached from 2005 to 2011. Can he keep this rushing machine churning?

OFFENSE
Wisconsin is now home to the record holders for all-time career rushing yards, single-game rushing yards, and total rushing touchdowns. The lineage includes Ron Dayne (’99 Heisman), P.J. Hill, John Clay, Montee Ball, James White, and Melvin Gordon. Before we anoint them “Running Back U,” let’s not forget what makes Wisconsin football who they are: the big hosses up front. I think a more fitting name for this recent powerhouse is “O-Line U.” But one of the major question marks surrounding the offense this year is the roster turnover up front. The offensive line loses 54-game starter Rob Havenstein (1st team All-BigTen), Kyle Costigan (1st team All-BigTen), and Dallas Lewallen (HM All-BigTen). The amount of talent and experience gone on the line cannot be understated. Dan Voltz and Tyler Marz are the only returning starters and they are certainly talented themselves. But there is no way that the 6.92 yards per carry is matched (2nd nationally), and I am expecting a step back in the rushing attack, mostly due to uncertainty on the line. Usually the departure of a Heisman Trophy runner-up RB would be a serious weakness, but Corey Clement is simply the next great Wisconsin back, and his name will be added to the above lineage. He nearly hit 1000 yards last year…as a backup. But Wisconsin has often spread carries to the 2nd and 3rd backs, making Clement’s backup a significant role. Taiwan Deal looks to be that 2nd back, but Dare Ogunbowale has great speed and vision and should also push for carries after switching over from defense a few seasons back.

There are more questions regarding the passing attack. Joel Stave has actually regressed over his three years of off-and-on starting. His 9-10 TD-INT ratio somehow led to 7 straight wins – handing off the ball to Gordon behind a line of giants certainly helped. The offense is one-dimensional with Stave at quarterback, and that has been okay over the past with such a dominant rushing attack. But now with uncertainties in the ground game, Stave’s issues multiply. Luckily, leading receiver Alex Erickson returns (772, 3 TDs); he runs extremely precise routes and shows no fear of going over the middle. Ron Wheelwright is more of a physical receiver, while Jordan Fredrick has experience but was injured in the spring. Look for Troy Fumagalli at tight end, who has had great development and is much-improved. All factors considered, the success really hinges on the offensive line’s new pieces, and Chryst’s coaching ability. Bielema was able to reload the ground game annually, Gary Andersen was a terrific coach. Chryst, despite time here as a coordinator, is not as proven as a headman. I see a step back on offense through the coaching change, issues at quarterback, and a new-look ground game.

DEFENSE
Dave Aranda’s defense was averaging just 16.8 points allowed per game through the regular season. But then 3rd-stringer Cardale Jones and the Buckeyes routed them to the tune of 59-0. The defense still managed a top 20 finish (20.8 per, 17th nationally), and Chryst kept Aranda on staff in his same role to provide some continuity on this side of the ball. 6 starters return, and this 3-4 set is strongest at the outside backers and in the secondary. Vince Biegel must be accounted for, which opens even more opportunity for Joe Schobert at the other OLB. They must continue to excel and even pick up some of the slack in the middle that will be left behind by the departures of both MLB’s Marcus Trotter and Derek Landisch. Michael Caputo is a physical force at the strong safety spot, and actually led the team in tackles with 106. After a big freshman season, Sojourn Shelton took a step back last season, but coaches say he has matured and moved more into a leadership role and is primed for a breakout season. There are some depth issues on the defensive line, but this should again be a strong unit. The defense will have a bit more pressure on them this season, as I am calling for an offensive regression. That said, if the middle of the defense can gel by league play, this defense can handle the additional responsibility.

OUTLOOK
For a team with question marks in both trenches, one of the last teams you’d like to open up with is Alabama, who has a top 10 offensive line and perhaps the #1 defensive line in the nation. This will be a brutal opener. Wisconsin gets three weeks to refuel before Big Ten play starts. The West Division will be on the line on October 10th, in Lincoln, a game that I am calling for Husker revenge. Wisconsin draws an easy pair from the East: expansion-mates Rutgers and Maryland, but must face Minnesota on the road to close the season. UW has held the Paul Bunyan Axe for 11 seasons and you better believe the physically tough Gophers have that one circled. The coaching change is a negative, the offensive line is rebuilding, and the 4-year quarterback still has issues. I am calling for Wisconsin to fall to 2nd place in the West Division in Chryst’s debut.

3. MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

During his decade-long era from 1997-2006, Glen Mason brought Minnesota to 7 bowl games. But the ensuing Tim Brewster years (17-33 overall record) were disastrous and Jerry Kill was brought in to pick up the pieces. That’s just what he has done, with steady improvement over the last 4 seasons culminating with a New Year’s Day bowl – the program’s first since the back-to-back Rose Bowls in 1961 and 1962. His staff has an incredible 140 years of combined coaching years together, and is perhaps the most intact coaching staff in the land. Kill has his team playing at an extremely high level of physicality, and has them pushing around traditional big-name powers. The 2014 team played well against rivals, and fittingly, Minnesota now holds four of their five rivalry trophies. But this squad still has its sights set on two additional trophies: Paul Bunyan’s Ax (Wisconsin 11 years straight) and the Big Ten Championship Trophy. Despite losing some star power, both goals are at least possibilities for the first time since the mid-2000s.

OFFENSE
The Minnesota offense is the definition of a “Big Ten offense,” but even two steps further. When you think of this conference, run-heavy, physical attacks and the infamous “three yards and a cloud of dust” phrase come to mind. Minnesota is that, and then some. Last year against San Jose State, only 2 of 7 passes were completed; and one of them was to the other team. Even with this one-dimensional approach (30th in rushing, 121st in passing), Minnesota is able to wear down defenses and do enough to control the game. Kill’s offensive goals have always been run-first ball control, and clock control. But this spring, he experimented with more short passes and some no-huddle tempo to keep the defense honest. Mitch Leidner is the leader, a proven commodity in the run game (17 career rushing touchdowns), but needs more consistency throwing the ball. His 2014 completion percentage of 51.5% needs to improve to help add a second dimension to the attack. Minnesota must replace their two biggest weapons: David Cobb (RB) and Maxx Williams (All-American TE). Cobb leaves with the single-season rushing record of 1626 yards; it will be running back by committee to fill his void. Rodrick Williams is the likely starter after playing significantly in his 2013 freshman season and cutting down 20 pounds while retaining his trucking ability. Rodney Smith and Berkley Edwards offer speed and versatility to the group. 4 of the top 5 targets are gone, meaning KJ Maye will have an even bigger role as Leidner’s security blanket. Look out for Jeff Jones, who can create offense from a variety of spots in almost a Percy Harvin-type role. Minnesota lacked a deep-threat last season which continued to crowd the box. The youth here has that top-end speed, but is simply inexperienced. I expect more vertical routes this year which should move the safeties out of the box and pay dividends in the rushing attack. The offensive line looks strong again, led by Josh Campion at right guard. Rushing totals may take a hit due to the departure of Cobb coupled with the added speed at WR. This may not be such a bad thing, as the more balanced attack could prove more potent. What was most important, and what needs to continue, is the high level of efficiency in the red zone. When they got close, they cashed in for touchdowns and not field goals.

DEFENSE
Tracy Claeys has been Kill’s defensive coordinator for the last 16 years, and his past three seasons have produced solid units. At first impression, you’d expect the strength to be in the trenches, but it was actually the secondary that proved elite, and looks that way again in 2015. Minnesota finished 34th in points allowed per game (24.2), and an impressive 18th in passing defense. The corner duo is one of the best in the conference and nation; Briean Boddy-Calhoun has the eye-popping stats (5 INT in 2014) while Eric Murray quietly eliminates the opponents top receiver and the ball is rarely thrown his way as a result. Hard-hitting safeties behind them make this secondary a feared unit. Look for a battle at the nickel spot between Jalen Myrick, Ace Rogers (JUCO) and Craig James (special teamer). De’Vondre Campbell, Theiren Cockran, and Steven Richardson are standouts in the front seven. The strong secondary, stars in the front, and hard-nosed coaching will make this defense stout yet again and should produce around the 20-25 points allowed per game like the last 3 years.

OUTLOOK
Wow, what an opener for the 2015 college football season. Minneapolis will be the center of the CFB world on Thursday, September 3rd as preseason favorite TCU comes to town. Regardless of the win/loss outcome, we will learn a great deal about both squads. Minnesota draws Michigan and Ohio State from the East Division, and both of them come off of BYE weeks. They do get West favorites Nebraska and Wisconsin both at home, and I look for the Gophers to strike in one of them. The Iowa game could be the swing game for the 3rd and 4th place spots in the West, but it’s a road trip for Kill’s squad. That said, I am still calling for a 3rd place finish. Minnesota continues to exceed expectations, so in the event of both new coaching hires at the top going through issues, keep an eye on these guys.

4. IOWA HAWKEYES

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Kirk Ferentz is by far the longest tenured coach in the Big Ten, has produced 11 winning seasons to just 4 losing years, and basically should’ve taken out a timeshare in Florida for his nearly-annual New Year’s Day bowl game there. All these accomplishments yet his seat is one of the warmest in the league, mostly due to stale on-field production since the Orange Bowl team of 2009. No question, Ferentz has been amazing for the program, but fans are building unrest and may start to ponder a change. Yes, Iowa went 7-5 in the regular season and 4 of those losses were by a score or less. But losses to every rival – Iowa State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska – has left a sour after-taste. The Hawkeyes need a very productive fall camp to get up to speed with the division favorites.

OFFENSE
The Jake Rudock era is over, as the two-year starter opted to transfer to Michigan this offseason. CJ Beathard came in to relieve Rudock after his injury, but was returned to the bench once he healed up. But now the keys to the offense are securely in Beathard’s possession. Unlike the Iowa quarterbacks before him, Beathard brings creativity, escapability, and is able to throw well rolling out or on the run. While Ferentz’s quarterbacks have been more conservative game managers, Beathard will not hesitate to create plays; both a blessing and a disguise, but a change no less. The running backs here have had the worst stretch of injuries to a specific position unit that I have ever seen. LeShun Daniels missed 6 weeks with a broken bone in his foot, but besides that, let’s hope those days are over (knock on wood). Jordan Canzeri will be the starter, and is a small, solid-built back who will become more of a factor in the passing game out of the backfield. Derrick Mitchell has moved from WR to RB and should make a push for carries in addition to helping in pass protection. While 3-year starter (and bowling ball) Mark Weisman graduates, remember that Canzeri got significant time in 2011, 2013, and 2014. Tevaun Smith will be Beathard’s go-to guy, and Matt VandeBerg is a great route-runner. Derrick Willies left the program, and star-TE Jacob Duzey should miss part of the season with a patellar tendon – only worsening the depth issues in the pass game. Austin Blythe is the team’s best lineman and is a potential nominee for the Rimington Award.

There was so much talk last season about revolutionizing and modernizing the offense. Iowa still uses a majority of power football, operating out of the I-formation, double tight sets with a big fullback, and hands the ball to the second man through. It is a very static offense with not much at all in the vertical passing game. In fact, I’d venture to say that under offensive coordinator Greg Davis, this has been the most risk-averse offensive strategy in the Power 5 conferences. Davis refuses to expand his predictable and narrow view of run-run-pass-punt. If there was ever a time to change, it is now; Beathard brings a new skill set and the gunslinger mentality to open up the passing game beyond safe under routes. Change doesn’t happen at this program, for better or worse. Just take a look at the uniforms (which I love the commitment to tradition, by the way).

DEFENSE
Last year’s unit still finished in the top 50 in scoring defense, but it was actually the worst here in over a decade. Iowa is an annual fixture among the top 20 defenses in the nation, and needs to get back to its roots to contend for division titles again. Due to a strong pass rush and solid secondary, Iowa did finish with 7th best passing defense (176 yards allowed per game). Disruptive, multi-year starter Drew Ott is the star of the defense. The senior defensive end (25 starts) has 110 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 18.5 tackles for loss, 2 forced fumbles, an interception, and an improbable punt return touchdown. The tandem of defensive tackles is gone, and they may have aided in Ott’s success. But on the other end, look for Nate Meier to finally take that next step. He needs to work on run support, and has been a target of opposing offensive coordinators in the run game. Look for the giant 6’8” Matt Nelson to add depth to the line rotation. The linebacker trio is filled with sophomores, and like most of the team’s position groups, rates average to below average on the Big Ten scale. Look for safety Jordan Lomax to piece together an all-conference season, while Greg Mabin and Maurice Fleming battle for the corner spot opposite Desmond King.

OUTLOOK
Despite the Cyclones’ recent struggles, Iowa has still managed to lose to Iowa State in 3 of the last 4 seasons. A loss here in the Cy-Hawk will be inexcusable for Ferentz. Next they host Pittsburgh and a familiar Big Ten coach in Pat Narduzzi, long-time Michigan State defensive coordinator. Iowa does get the most favorable cross-division draw possible, as they play the bottom two East teams Indiana and Maryland. Both West favorites Nebraska and Wisconsin are on the road, but the Hawkeyes do host Minnesota in what could be the swing game for the 3rd spot in the division. Simply put, Iowa is very, very average at every position group, and I see no reason why they should be considered contenders in the division. That said, their talent level is higher than the bottom tier of the West Division. I am calling for a 4th-place finish and another year in the Ferentz rut.

5. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Five straight bowl seasons culminated in 2012 with a 10-3 campaign that coach Pat Fitzgerald claims was five minutes away from being 13-0. Back-to-back 5-7 seasons since, have tempered expectations heading into the 10th season of the Fitz era. This time last preseason, Northwestern found itself in the center of the player unionization movement that involves paying student athletes. While this isn’t the time or place to discuss that mess, let’s just say that it caused quite the preseason distraction. This offseason has been more focused on actual football and the drive to return to the postseason. Before the 2014 season, if you would have said that the ‘Cats would have defeated Penn State, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame, I would have assumed we were discussing a 10-win team and potential division champ. Those high points weren’t enough to mask ugly losses to Northern Illinois, Iowa, Cal, Illinois, and a 10-9 heartbreaker against Michigan. This inconsistency makes Northwestern a challenging team to evaluate heading into 2015.

OFFENSE
Northwestern loses multi-year starter Trevor Simien, the pocket passer of the former QB duo with runner Kain Colter. This duo was one of the chief reasons for NW turning the corner and earning 10 wins in 2012. Both pieces are gone, and no starter has emerged yet. The three candidates include the strong-armed and experienced Zack Oliver (senior), Matt Alviti (sophomore), and Clayton Thorson (redshirt freshman). I expect Oliver to start Week 1 under center, but that role will be fluid throughout fall camp and the season – and don’t be surprised if Fitzgerald goes with the 2-QB system again. The new leader will benefit from a young star in the backfield, as Justin Jackson looks to repeat his breakout freshman season that featured 1187 yards and 10 touchdowns. Solomon Vault can do it all, and he needs to get the rock at least 10-15 times a game. Warren Long is the short-yardage bruiser, and Austin Anderson is highly-touted, fresh off of season-ending hip injury. The deep backfield is the strength of the team. Top targets Kyle Prater and Tony Jones both depart, and last season had depth issues worsened by Miles Shuler’s injury. The unit lacked a go-to, crunch-time WR. Christian Jones was that guy in 2013, but a 2014 spring ACL took him out last season. With Jones and Shuler healthy, and Dan Vitale mastering the hybrid “Super Back” position, this unit should be much improved – if the new guy can get them the ball! The offensive line is a glaring issue, as the efficiency numbers indicate: 3.37 yards per carry (114th) and 4.5 yards per play (122nd). The offense’s success hinges on two unknowns: a new (unnamed) starting quarterback, and the 5 guys up front protecting him. There are simply too many weapons at the skills to see a repeat of last year’s poor 23 points per game (101st).

DEFENSE
On the surface, it appears that the defense only returns 7 starters, but defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz noted that really they lose just two full-time starters. Experience abounds, especially on the defensive line and in the secondary. The entire front four returns intact, but needs improvement in run defense (4.24 yards per carry, 60th). Coach Fitzgerald mentioned that Deonte Gibson and Dean Lowry have especially stepped up their games this spring, and form a strong combo of rush ends. Tackle Sean McEvilly returns from season-long injury to add depth to the front. Anthony Walker is a stand-out young linebacker, who filled in for Collin Ellis and scored the PICK SIX that ended up sealing the win over Penn State. The secondary is the strength of the defense, a veteran group that features a lockdown corner duo of Nick VanHoose and Matthew Harris. Look for Jared McGee and Kyle Quiero to battle for the nickel spot as a hybrid LB/S. The defensive numbers were solid enough to expect a better record than 5-7. It was the offense’s inefficiencies that placed extra stress on the unit. This veteran unit should at least match last season’s numbers and again average around 25 points per game allowed.

OUTLOOK
Northwestern, known for a strong academic program, plays the West Coast and East Coast smart guys at Stanford and Duke. Out of the East Division, they draw Penn State and a trip to the Big House. Both games against the division favorites (Nebraska and Wisconsin) are on the road, meaning that the more winnable league games are in Evanston, a schedule bonus. With a similar talent level with Illinois, the more manageable schedule and Coach Fitzgerald are the differentiators and reasons for placing NW here at #5 in the West.

6. ILLINOIS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Since Juice Williams, Rashard Mendenhall & co. invaded the Horseshoe and knocked off #1 Ohio State in 2007, the Illinois program is just 35-54. Tim Beckman took over the helm in 2012 and has seen steady improvements each season, topped off with a bowl appearance last season. Despite 15 starters returning, the tough schedule and question marks on both lines make a return trip to bowl season seem even tougher. For the 2-win increase to continue, Illinois will have to pull some upsets, yet all possibilities are on the road. The rebuild pattern may slow this season, but there is still legitimate reason for bowl season optimism.

OFFENSE
Towards the end of the 2014 season, the offense began to click a bit, especially the physicality up front. Offensive coordinator Bill Cubit wants to run the ball a bit better and improve on last season’s poor yards per carry (3.7, 98th nationally). He has placed more emphasis on it and will use more power formations such as the double tight and I formation. Cubit ultimately wants to play to his strengths; if the gap blocking isn’t working, he’ll shift to more draws and zone blocking. More two-back sets will keep the pass rush honest. The ground game’s crown jewel is Josh Ferguson, who was relied on heavily last season and should again see the bulk of carries. He has led the team in rushing the last two seasons and is also a key facet of the pass game (50 receptions for 427 yards). Up front, the offensive line coach has shifted in 3 of the last 4 seasons. It is hard to make progress when the system and line terminology are in a constant flux. 3 starters return, including Ted Karras who is back from season-ending injury and is the team’s best lineman. I expect solid improvements in the rushing attack due to Ferguson’s star potential and Cubit’s increased emphasis and on it. Wes Lunt would like to remind everyone that Illinois looks to throw the ball a bit too. Before his mid-season injury in the Purdue game, Wes Lunt was piecing together a solid campaign (1763, 64%, 14 TD – 3 INT). Chayce Crouch filled in, and despite his angle of mobility, was not a sound passer and threw for a poor 10-8 TD-INT ratio filling in for Lunt. Their quarterback is healthy, but their star WR is done for the year. Mike Dudek burst onto the scene with 1038 yards as a freshman, but tore his ACL in a non-contact drill this spring. His presence in the slot would have been a perfect compliment to the long, lanky, big-frame outside receiver: Geronimo Allison. Dudek will be out until at least mid-October. Malik Turner will attempt to fill the void. Overall, I expect better rushing numbers, and with a full season of Lunt, the offensive stats and performance will certainly rise.

DEFENSE
Beckman hired 13-year NFL coach Mike Phair as co-defensive coordinator in an attempt to clean up a unit that couldn’t stop the run (239 per game, 118th) or keep teams out of the endzone (34 points per game, 109th). Seven starters return, however the spring practices were depleted due to 5 key contributors sitting out due to injury. Thankfully, Illinois had a full set of bowl practices, something Northwestern and Purdue didn’t get. Former JUCO Jihad Ward is a force at defensive end, but doesn’t have much help with him on the line. The linebackers are the strength of the defense, led by potential all-conference standouts Mason Monheim (leading tackler) and TJ Neal. Look for JUCO-transfer Eric Finney to start at the “STAR” position, which is a hybrid between linebacker and safety. Clayton Fejedelem aggressively helps out in run support from his spot at safety, and the corners both return. Again, I expect some improvement from the defensive unit, and should cut down the points allowed per game to under 30.

OUTLOOK
September has three automatic wins and a road trip to Chapel Hill to face a talented Tar Heel squad. Illinois draws Ohio State and Penn State from the East, gets middle-of-the-pack West teams Iowa and Minnesota both on the road, and their 4th Big Ten home game has been moved to Chicago. Illinois will need to beat Purdue, Northwestern, and also pull another upset to return to bowl season. I am calling for a 6th place finish in the West Division and no bowl game.

7. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Purdue has always been known for displaying the “World’s Largest Drum” on fall Saturdays, but in his 3rd season, coach Darrell Hazell may be facing the “World’s Largest Rebuilding Project.” He has been a part of successful teams at Ohio State with Jim Tressel (2005-2010) and even turned around Kent State in just two years. After a 1-11 season that was statistically one of the worst in league history, Purdue made some improvements to finish 3-9 last season. For how historically bad the ’13 Boilermakers were, history has shown that rough first seasons can lead to successful tenures. Rick Ferentz (1-10 in 1999), Barry Alvarez (1-10 in 1990), and Frank Beamer (2-9 in 1987) are all testimonials to the rebuilding ups and downs. While it was easy to quickly jump on Hazell after his opening season, there is room for cautious optimism – the guy clearly has a vision, a plan, and now some tangible progress to build off of in year 3.

OFFENSE

The offense returns 8 starters but the quarterback spot remains unsettled. Austin Appleby played most of the season and is tabbed as the starter for now, but Danny Etling won the job last summer, and the dual-threat Danny Blough could push for playing time. Appleby and Etling combined to pass for a 16-16 TD to INT ratio, and both barely finished over a 50% completion rate. Etling has transferred to LSU, making this a two-man race. Progress is much needed from their signal-caller. The backfield loses thousand-yard rusher Akeem Hunt and track star Raheem Mostert, leaving Keyante Green as the only experienced runner returning. For all the issues in the backfield, the offensive line looks promising. Center Robert Kugler anchors a line that returns completely intact and looks to build off of an already solid 4.69 yards per carry (45th nationally).

DEFENSE

There simply aren’t many bright spots on this defense. 7 starters return, but the recruiting levels are the lowest in the Big Ten according to our “Weighted Average Talent Index.” I guess optimism can be found in the fact that there was tangible progress from the 2013 debacle to last season. The defense has moved into the top 100 in every major defensive category, and before you laugh, just remember how terrible this unit was in 2013. The stars that will be featured include Jake Replogle (DT), JaWhaun Bentley (MLB), and Frankie Williams (CB). I think it is safe to expect some more improvements in year 3, especially if the offense can continue its progress to take some of the stress off of this unit.

OUTLOOK

Purdue has 2 tough non-conference games in Marshall and Virginia Tech, who looks like a potential top 25 team. The Boilermakers draw Indiana and Michigan State out of the East and will most likely need to win the Bucket game to be on the road to bowl season. Illinois on Homecoming looks like another shot at a league victory (PU won 38-27 last season). Look for another step forward for the Hazell Rebuild Project, even if that progress is not reflected in the win column. Nonetheless, Purdue still looks like a last-place team.