2015 Pac-12 South Division Preview

BRETT CIANCIA
August 1st, 2015

1. USC TROJANS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

PLAYOFF PICK

From 2002 to 2008, USC went 82-9, won a national title, shared another, and was the most feared program in America. They were Alabama, a decade ago. But since Pete Carroll’s departure after the 2009 season, that power hasn’t been seen here. Except for the final four weeks of the 2011 season, a year cut short by an NCAA postseason ban, USC hasn’t returned to that level of dominance. Hiring Lane Kiffin above his head didn’t help. Nor did UCLA’s resurgence to make Los Angeles a two-team city again. And the NCAA scholarship reduction certainly didn’t help.

This 2015 USC team has all of the familiar features of their best teams: a well-experienced and efficient pocket passer, a deep stable of skill players, a disruptive defense, and yes, even a senior linebacker wearing the vaunted #55 jersey… USC is back and here to stay.

This time last year, while every other magazine and website predicted UCLA to win the Pac-12 South, we were the only ones to pick USC. And while no one saw the surge of the South Division coming, it appears that we were a year early with the USC hype. There were certainly flashes of brilliance, almost all coming in the first three quarters, as this small roster wore down and struggled in the 4th quarter. While the program is still building towards restoring the roster to 85 scholarships, the 75 in 2015 is a HUGE step up from the 57 they had suited up in 2014. That boost comes from the Trojans first unofficial win in 2015, Signing Day, where Steve Sarkisian and his staff pulled in the #2 recruiting class in the nation. This is a team that was a Hail Mary (ASU) and last-second touchdown (Utah) away from 11 wins. 11 is a fair benchmark of where the bar should be set this season.

OFFENSE
Quarterback Cody Kessler put together a 2014 season that simply didn’t garner enough attention, at least nationally (3826, 70%, 39 TD, 5 INT). The only quarterback with a better TD to INT ratio won the Heisman. Kessler might have been the 3rd quarterback taken in the draft, but chose to return to lead what looks to be one of the nation’s most potent units. Protecting him up front is an offensive line that returns from 2014 completely intact. Max Tuerk is the veteran leader of the group, a preseason All-American, and frontrunner for the Rimington Award. Tackles Zach Banner (6’9”) and Toa Lobendahn add all-conference potential to the top o-line in the Pac-12. The line was extremely young last season, and still with three sophomores they appear younger than most. But a full year of starting together has built them into a cohesive unit that I expect to improve on the 3.99 yards per carry. I expect a more efficient ground game, even despite losing 2014 team MVP Buck Allen. Tre Madden, who split carries with Allen in 2013, returns after missing 2014 with a turf toe and looks to again split carries with assumed starter Justin Davis (595, 4.6, 4 TD). Before his injury in 2013, Madden was actually the featured back and assuming his health is back, he still has that high ceiling. Usually losing a 1st-round WR leaves an insurmountable hole in the offense, but even with Nelson Agholor moving to Philadelphia, the stable is loaded on the outsides. JuJu Smith emerged as the #1 target this spring after a productive freshman season (54, 724, 5 TD). Darreus Rogers will be a nice compliment to the shifty slot receiver Steven Mitchell, who was a surprise breakout player this spring. JUCO-transfer Isaac Whitney fills the shoes of George Farmer as a stretch-the-field type of guy. And then there’s Adoree’ Jackson. While he will be starting at cornerback, Jackson and his sprinter speed will continue to be used on offense and in the return game.

Despite sounding like coach-speak, this is an up-tempo, pro style offense that relies heavily on shifts, motions, and the quarterback’s ability to analyze the defense pre-snap and make the right decision. That is something that Kessler thrived on in 2014. He almost always makes the defense wrong. A more efficient ground game could make this unit one of the best in the country.

DEFENSE
USC’s vaunted 2008 defense led the nation in scoring, and two staffs later, the points allowed per game is stuck up in the 20 to 26 range. In Justin Wilcox’s second season as defensive coordinator, there is reason to believe that number will improve. He has additional years of Pac-12 experience under his belt from his time with Sarkisian at Washington, and his familiarity with the league’s style will help. There are technically 7 returning starters, but that doesn’t count veteran seniors Lamar Dawson (injury redshirt in ’14) and Claude Pelon. The front seven loses two leaders, one from each level: LB Hayes Pullard and DE Leonard Williams, who was taken 6th overall. Both units seem to have reloaded just fine. Nose tackle Antwaun Woods anchors the front, with Pelon and Delvon Simmons surrounding him. But one of the issues here is the lack of depth that hurt them late in games. Wilcox needs more rotation up front and may get that from highly-touted prospects such as Kenny Bigelow (injured 2014) and Cody Temple who has impressed the staff in the spring.

Behind them is a star-studded group headlined by hybrid Su’a Cravens who you’ll see wreaking havoc in the backfield and also ballhawking downfield. With Cravens, think Polamalu. At the weakside spot, Anthony Sarao is the leading returning tackler (74) and is earning all-conference attention. 3 of the nation’s top 7 LB recruits are on their way to LA to add much-needed depth. Finally, the secondary had some growing pains last season, ranking 118th in pass defense. Yes, the passing defense numbers may be a bit inflated coming from the pass-heavy Pac-12, but this number is still unacceptable for a team chasing a league title (or more). Jackson and Kevon Seymour lock down the corners.

As mentioned, the scholarship issue haunted USC, especially on the defensive side and especially late in games. USC was +135 points in the first halves of games, yet -14 in the 4th quarters. The thin defense wore down as the games progressed. Their first 3 losses display the issue clearly. One-dimensional Boston College repeatedly ran the zone read until finally the USC defense broke down in the 4th quarter. Arizona State and Utah won in the final seconds; one with a Hail Mary and the other with a meticulous drive that USC couldn’t slow enough to stop. The roster depth has improved, the experience levels have improved, former starters return from 2014 injuries, and the talent has been boosted with an elite recruiting class. USC is back and here to stay. They are my pick to win the Pac-12 South Division, and represent the league in the Playoff.

OUTLOOK
In Week 7, Notre Dame will be victims of the “Navy Effect” in which teams coming off their game with Navy are so worn down that their win record suffers. The Trojans get 3 of the South’s top 4 teams at home, including the season finale against UCLA. The city title has resided in Westwood for 3 years and I am calling for the Trojans to steal it back. And while the Pac-12’s playoff spot may come down to USC and Oregon, they could potentially play twice. Even if Oregon defends its hometurf in round one, I see USC winning the rematch and heading to the playoff at 12-1.

2. UCLA BRUINS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Well, the UCLA football program has come a long way since the 2011 regular season finale when the L.A. Coliseum’s scoreboard read: USC 50 UCLA 0. Since that lowpoint, Jim Mora’s 3-year record of 29-11 is the best start to a coaching tenure in school history. Not only has he turned Los Angeles into a two-team city again, but has even stole back the city title by defeating USC by double-digits in all three seasons. Mora turned around performance on the field, but also provided a much-needed spark on the recruiting trail. His first class (2012) was ranked 19th nationally, while his first full recruiting cycle (2013) resulted in the 7th best class. Twelve of those recruits started as true freshmen in 2013, and are now the veterans of this super-experienced team that returns 18 returning starters. Can this group bring home the school’s first conference title since 1998? Besides losing their top leader on both sides of the ball, the roster is intact and loaded with elite talent.

The South Division has recently been a three-horse race between UCLA, USC, and Arizona State, but the surge of Arizona and Utah last season make this the 2nd toughest division in America. While UCLA has seen drastic improvement over Mora’s tenure so far, the rest of the division has made gains as well.

OFFENSE
It has been the Brett Hundley show here for the past 3 seasons; gone is the do-it-all leader and #2 passer in school history. While he leaves enormous shoes to fill, it speaks to UCLA’s experience level that they are the ONLY shoes to fill on offense. Who will inherit the keys to the Mora-Mazzone Machine? Jerry Neuheisel, Rick’s son, played well in spurts last season, most notably when he filled in for the injured Hundley in the 2nd half of the Texas game. Off the bench, he tossed 2 touchdowns, including the game-winner. While Neuheisel brings the poise and experience, incoming freshman Josh Rosen enrolled early and brings elite, sheer talent. Rosen was rated the #1 QB of the 2015 class, and certainly looked the part in the spring game. Despite his youth, I expect the big arm of Rosen to prevail and start out as QB1. He benefits from being protected by a completely intact offensive line, which is one of the nation’s finest. Jake Brendel is the leader of the unit at center, Connor McDermott is an athletic 6’9” left tackle, and every lineman has at least 19 starts. Yes, the line gave up 40 sacks last season (120th nationally), but some of that was a by-product of the mobile Hundley trying to create plays with his legs.

Rosen is also surrounded by top-notch skill players behind him and on the outsides. Paul Perkins is the workhorse running back who led the Pac-12 in rushing last season (1575 yards, 6.3 per, 9 TD’s). He is placed on the Heisman watch list for good reason; one-cut and he is gone. Nate Starks was banged up a bit last season but should help shoulder the load, and look out for 5-star Soso Jamabo (yes, the guy who infamously chose between ITT Tech and University of Phoenix).

The receiver stable is loaded as well, with everyone returning from a productive 2014 season. Jordan Payton is a smart receiver who is able to effectively find holes in the defense and is the leader with 1596 career receiving yards. The speedy Eldridge Massington is the deep-threat. Former option quarterback Devin Fuller is a highlight reel waiting to happen, and offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone should get creative to get the ball to him several times a game. Finally, a pair of TE-types, Thomas Duarte and incoming 5-star Chris Clark, will be nice safety valves over the middle for the young quarterback.

To clarify UCLA simply as a finesse team is incorrect. As a result of Mora’s recruiting, this is now a downhill running team behind an NFL-caliber line. Yes, there is talent on the outsides too, but with a young quarterback the run game becomes that much more important, at least early on in Rosen’s adjustment. It was a very balanced attack last season, and I expect more of the same, plus an improvement on the 4.89 yards per carry (34th nationally).

DEFENSE
Longtime Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Bradley inherits a veteran defense that finished 3rd in total yardage in the Pac-12. He has a noticeably athletic unit that seems adapted to match up against the league’s spread-the-field and up-tempo attacks. While 3 of the top 4 tacklers are gone, including one from each level, there are several bright spots that make this one of the best defenses in the league. Look for an improvement on the 28.1 points allowed per game of 2014 (77th nationally).

UCLA runs a 3-4 front and it is often seen in the nickel package. Up front it will feel like more than just 3 down linemen due to the tough tandem of Kenny Clark (nose tackle) and Eddie Vanderdoes (defensive end). While those two alone make this a top unit, Takkarist McKinley came out of nowhere last season and adds a speed rush. Kenny Young and Myles Jack (leading returning tackler) form another dominant tandem at inside linebacker that is flanked by Deon Hollins who is receiving all-conference hype.

Speaking of all-conference hype, take a look at this secondary. I can make the case for each of them, and there is no weakness in the back. Ishmael Adams is the heartbeat of the defense who sparked the rout over Arizona State with both his return touchdown and PICK SIX. Adams moves to the nickel spot, while formerly-hyped recruit Priest Willis and Fabian Moreau lock down the corners. Randall Goforth (20 career starts) returns from surgery and plays alongside star sophomore Jaleel Wodood in the back. The secondary likes to be aggressive, and coupled with the fierce pass rush – good luck passing on the Bruins this fall.

OUTLOOK
Mora’s success cannot be understated, but he has struggled with the conference heavyweights (0-6 vs. Stanford and Oregon). They finally miss Oregon in the inter-division rotation, but also have 5 conference road games (4 vs. 2014 bowl teams). BYU is a tough non-conference draw too, a physical team that could wear down UCLA before their crucial series with the Arizona teams. The Pac-12 South is certainly a gauntlet, but with a Top-10 caliber team, I am calling for UCLA to finish towards the top. Ultimately, I am calling for USC’s revenge plus another conference loss or two.

*** If Mora can keep his star juniors away from the NFL, look out for UCLA as a top Playoff contender in 2016!

3. ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

After an 8-5 year with a very inexperienced team in his first season here, Todd Graham broke the 10-win barrier in 2013. That preseason, while the rest of the nation was enamored with the LA teams, I was the only one to predict Arizona State to win the Pac-12 South – and they did just that. That 2013 team was senior-laden and even in what looked like a rebuilding year in 2014, Graham again won 10 games. The youth of 2014 are now experienced veterans, plus Graham added in some top-notch JUCO talent to compliment the already talented roster. This has a similar feeling to the 2013 preseason, but two years later, the LA teams actually deserve the hype, and the overall talent level of the league has certainly improved. While Arizona State looks like a top 15 or top 20 team, it may only be good enough for a 3rd place finish in the brutal Pac-12 South.

OFFENSE
The Taylor Kelly era is officially over, but it feels like we lost a part of the real quarterback after his week 3 injury. He returned to start the final 6 games, but he lost his dual-threat edge. To replace the crafty and accurate Kelly is senior Mike Bercovici who started a few and filled in last season, tossing 12 TDs to just 4 INTs with an efficient 61.8% completion rate. With some experience under his belt, Bercovici provides some senior leadership. He may have a stronger arm than Kelly but may lack his precise accuracy. All in all the transition should go over smoothly, especially due to a strong offensive line. Nick Kelly (Center), Vi Teofilo (RG), and the former 5-star Christian Westerman are all-conference caliber standouts in the interior line. The tackle spots are question marks, however Evan Goodman was also a highly-touted recruit that is ready to claim a starting spot. Even with leading-rusher DJ Foster moving over to wide receiver, I expect the stronger line to help raise the 4.32 yards per carry (66th nationally). The departure of Jaelen Strong takes a huge dimension out of the receiver corps, but Ellis Jefferson attempts to match his physicality and big frame. De’Chavon “Gump” Hayes earned the moniker due to his blazing straight-line speed that Forrest possessed. As mentioned, DJ Foster moves outside but look for him to still get carries in fly sweeps and jet motions. This is a high-speed, up-tempo offensive attack; in the 3 years under offensive coordinator Mike Norvell, ASU has competed 168 scoring drives of under 3 minutes. In 2015, it’s more blazing speed out in the Tempe desert.

DEFENSE
Much like the 2013 defense, 9 starters return and will be complimented by some elite JUCO talent in the front seven. Even more notable is the extreme depth on the defensive line – the rotation up front should be big enough to always have fresh legs in the trenches. Tashon Smallwood and Edmond Boateng are the stars up front, while Salamo Fiso leads the middle level of the unit. These returning starters will be joined by JUCO standouts Deonte Reynolds (DL) and Davon Durant (LB). The secondary has the most returning experience, even with the departure of leading tackler Damarious Randall. Free safety Jordan Simone had 100 tackles himself, and is worthy of all-conference attention along with Kweishi Brown and Lloyd Carrington. I expect vast improvements on defense, including a step forward in pass yards allowed per game (260, 106th) and most importantly points per game (27.9, 76th). Last year’s unit had just 2 returning starters, meaning the growing pains are already behind them. It is a veteran unit that is possible of wreaking havoc against the other division favorites.

OUTLOOK
ASU opens up in Houston to take on Texas A&M in the schools’ first meeting. Two tune-ups follow before back-to-back tests against UCLA and USC. The Sun Devils’ fate may be determined in early October. ASU avoids Stanford but must play Oregon. The Pac-12’s talent level has risen to new heights in the past 3 seasons, and there are simply no easy weeks (except Colorado). I expect 6 or 7 league wins, but ultimately will call for a 6-3 Pac-12 record to finish solidly in 3rd place in the South Division, perhaps the 2nd toughest in America. This team has potential to shock some teams and finish higher, but I don’t think the talent progress will be reflected in the win column.

4. UTAH

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Boise State often gets the credit as the non-AQ team that burst onto the BCS scene; heck, they even renamed their mascot “Buster,” as in, BCS Buster. But actually it was Utah, back in 2004, who originally broke down the barrier. Urban Meyer led the undefeated Utes to the Fiesta Bowl and destroyed Pitt 35-7, then 4 years later Kyle Whittingham led the Utes to the Sugar Bowl and humbled Saban’s Alabama team 31-17. It was that 2008 Utes team that really escalated the pressure on the BCS and its exclusion of lower-tier teams. 3 years later, with the Pac-10’s expansion to 12 teams, the Utes found themselves upgrading to the big leagues, and haven’t been able to reach the same level of success that they had in the Mountain West – until last season. Utah had been stuck towards the bottom of the South Division in each of their first 3 seasons, but the 2014 team was able to break through and bring home a winning record in the Pac-12. But boy was it nerve-wracking. SEVEN of their nine league games were decided by a score or less. The Utes went 5-2 in those contests, clearly swinging from a losing season to one that represented progress in their new league. Was it luck or ol’ fashioned hard-nosed grit. I think it was some of both, but the team looks even stronger heading into 2015. However, will Utah’s development and progress be able to keep pace with the rest of the league, a surging conference/division that looks stronger than ever?

OFFENSE
Travis Wilson returns for his 5th season in Salt Lake City, but it’s his first time having the same offensive system in consecutive years. Finally, he isn’t forced to learn new schemes and displayed poise and confidence this spring. He will battle for the starting job with former Oklahoma transfer Kendall Thompson. These two guys have gone back in forth in starting roles and splitting 1st reps, but Thompson tore his ACL vs. Oregon. Even though Thompson was the key cog in the UCLA upset, it looks like Wilson will start fall camp and the season as QB1. In this offense, the quarterback takes a pounding, due to heavy amounts of carries from both the read option or from scrambling. Having two (or three) competent QB’s is important here. Devontae Booker is the workhorse at running back and will be featured again (292 carries, 1512 yards, 10 TD). The speedy Troy McCormick is questionable for this fall due to injury, meaning that UConn transfer Joe Williams and do-it-all Monte Seabrook will push for carries. Dres Anderson and Kaelin Clay leave major holes at WR, which explains why the staff chose to move Bubba Poole over to the outside. The offensive line returns 4 starters and looks like a formidable, middle-of-the-road unit. The offense was gritty, yet very average. They seemed to muscle out the bare minimum to pull off wins, and there needs to be solid progress if they want to escape with another winning league record. The reason they seemed to barely stay afloat was their special teams pair of Andy Phillips (kicker) and Tom Hackett (punter) who are the best tandem in the nation.

DEFENSE
The MUSS is home to the league’s best defensive line; Hunter Dimick is a clear-cut 1st-team All-PAC 12 talent, and will be joined by Star Lotulelei’s brother Lowell and UCLA-transfer Kyle Fitts. Jason Fanaika is a hybrid DE/LB and will be used in several ways in the rotation. All this talent mitigates the loss of Ted Hendricks Award winner Nate Orchard. The senior linebacker tandem of Jared Norris and Gionni Paul returns a combined 177 tackles, 5 sacks, and 4 interceptions from 2014. At the strongside backer spot, Jason Whittingham will start (Kyle’s nephew). The secondary needs is less experienced with half the unit departing. It was a strong defense last season, and with 7 starters back along with a top-notch front, the unit has strength again.

OUTLOOK
I understand it is difficult to work around a 9-game conference slate, but it is a damn shame that Utah and BYU are not playing each other. At least Utah State returns to the schedule. The Michigan opener on Thursday night will be one of the biggest storylines of opening weekend as all eyes are on Harbaugh. Utah misses Stanford but must travel to Oregon in Week 4. I see 4 definite conference losses, and trips to Washington and Arizona could be trouble, as will the homecoming game against a much-improved Cal team. Ultimately, I am calling for a 4th place finish, as the talent level is a shade below ASU. I expect Utah to out-muscle Arizona in the trenches in a game that should decide the 4th and 5th spots in the South standings.

5. ARIZONA

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

In 2008 Mike Stoops brought Arizona back to bowl season for the first time in a decade. After a few more bowl trips, Rich Rodriguez stepped in and in his third season, brought home the South Division title. It was an unlikely road to the top, especially with a freshman quarterback in the 2nd hardest division in America. The South title was the schools first and only Pac-12 title of any sort, besides sharing the Pac-10 crown in 1993. In fact, Arizona is the only original member to have never earned a trip to the Rose Bowl – and despite being on the fringe of Playoff talk last December, I don’t expect the Wildcats to be anywhere near the roses this fall.

OFFENSE
It all starts with sophomore Anu Solomon, who lit up the scoreboard as a freshman passing for 3793 yards and a 26-9 TD-INT ratio. He is stoic, patient, doesn’t force throws, and seems hard to faze. I can’t help but notice a bit of Mariota in him. Solomon played in a similar offense in high school and even sat out 2013 to perfect his knowledge. With the return of all his favorite weapons, I expect more great numbers – if his line can protect him. Huge question marks remain up front with just 2 starters returning. But if Rich Rod can form a cohesive line quick enough, look out! He stresses a high-tempo attack that has heavy zone read and wants to distribute the ball out to the playmakers. Nick Wilson ran for 1375 yards last season; he returns to form quite the offensive trio with Solomon and thousand-yard receiver Cayleb Jones. If it weren’t for the issues on the offensive line I would rate the offense higher, but the recruiting hasn’t been strong enough here for me to blindly hope for incoming stars up front. In our Weighted Average Talent Index, Arizona rates 41st nationally, and 8th in the Pac-12.

DEFENSE
Two starters return to each level of the defense, a unit that averaged 28.2 points per game (80th nationally) including the 51-point blowup in the Pac-12 Title. Fourth-year defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel was with Rodriguez at West Virginia, and is known for his 3-3-5 stack defense. Reggie Gilbert provides a strong pass rush from the end spot, but this defense is completely owned by All-Everything LB Scooby Wright. His 2014 stats look like typos: 163 tackles, 14 sacks, and 15 tackles for loss. He took home every honor possible, and was the highest defender in the Heisman voting in December. He is one of college football’s biggest stars. Alongside him at linebacker is Derrick Turituri who is one of the team’s strongest guys. Despite being undersized, Parker Zellers will be a key contributor up front, too. The passing defense was one of the worst in the nation (121st), and while some of that can be attributed to the league’s affinity for aerial assault, it was still a glaring weakness. Playmaker Tra’Mayne Bondurant departs, but with the 6 total starters back (and Scooby), I expect the 2015 defense to be about on par with last year’s unit.

OUTLOOK
Arizona had 7 games come down to within a score, going 6-1 in those contests. These close games tend to correct themselves year to year, and with the added strength at the top of the already-tough South Division, it will be incredibly hard for a repeat title. Arizona misses Oregon (deserved, after two meetings in 2014), but must travel to Stanford. After taking care of the weak non-conference slate, I see Arizona opening up 6-2 with the trips to Seattle, Tempe, and hosting of Utah as the three swing games. I think the elite Utah defensive line will rip up Arizona’s front, and is essentially the difference between placing them 4th or 5th. The South Division will be tough and tight again, and look for many more one-possession decisions. But I don’t see a repeat of 2014 here.

6. COLORADO BUFFALOES

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Given Colorado’s struggles, it must be hard for the younger generation of college football fans to imagine that this program was once feared, and earned both a national championship and a Heisman Trophy in the 1990s. After the successful Gary Barnett era, the wheels began to fall off under Dan Hawkins (21-40 from 2006-2010), but then hit rock bottom since the conference move from the Big 12 to the Pac-12. It is quite strange to reflect on the 2007 Independence Bowl, a game that featured Alabama and Colorado as comparable 6-6 peers. Since that loss, CU is just 23-62. Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, CU is 4-33 in league games, 10-39 overall, and just 3 FBS teams have fewer wins over that span. How can this issue be fixed, what needs to be done?

It was actually Colorado, not Nebraska, who was the first program to declare its departure from the unstable Big 12. CU headed west, where they cite that a majority of alumni are based out of. It usually takes teams a few years to adjust to a conference change; the style of play, opponents, and recruiting territories are all new. But we are now in year 5 in the Pac-12 and there is no sign of leaving the South Division’s cellar. Fellow expansion-partner Utah finally broke through with a winning record in the conference last season, but Colorado remains entrenched in last. Well, it is Mike MacIntyre’s 3rd season here, and if his prior stint at San Jose State is any indicator, the third time’s the charm. His progression there went 1-11, 5-7. 12-1! While there is no way in heck that Colorado approaches that 3rd year figure, there is also no doubt that progress is being made, regardless of it that will be reflected in the win column. CU is installing a state-of-the-art facility, which finally marks some catching up to their Pac-12 adversaries. Keeping pace with on-field progress, however, is a different issue – especially in the red hot Pac-12 South.

OFFENSE
It all starts with 3rd-year quarterback Sefo Liufau who saw a boost from freshman to sophomore seasons and looks for even another boost this offseason. His 2014 stats were strong (3200 yards, 65%, 28 TD – 15 INT), but he needs some additional work on his mechanics and ability to read defenses. Liufau is a great competitor and I expect him to cut down on mistakes with an even stronger grasp of the offense here in year 3. His backup is Jordan Gehrke, who won the “Iron Buffalo” for lifting, but it truly is Liufau or bust this fall. Nelson Spruce may just be the best WR in the conference, and he should again eclipse the 1000-yard mark again, and should break the school record for career receiving yards by mid-season. He is easily Liufau’s favorite target, mostly due to his ability to create separation and get open – traits often overlooked by size and 40-time. Spruce will be complimented by Shay Fields, Bryce Bobo, and Sean Irwin at tight end. The line returns 3 of 5 starters who look to open holes for Christian Powell to improve on last season’s 4.11 yards per carry (82nd nationally). Last season CU averaged a mediocre 28.5 points per game, but given Liufau’s progress and overall 3rd year system bonus, that number should climb past 30 per game.

DEFENSE
As you can see from our statistics heat map (left), the 2014 Colorado defense was, well, pretty bad. There truly weren’t many bright spots to discuss. They scored 56 points against Cal, only to lose 59-56. These blow-ups need to go away if bowl season is a legit target. The good news is that 3 starters return from all 3 levels of this 4-3 defense. Additionally, former USF head coach Jim Leavitt takes over the defensive coordinator role, and brings a new level of high-intensity. I expect him to light a fire under these returning veterans and improve the fundamentals. Stars to keep an eye on include LB Addison Gillam, CB Kenneth Crawley, and SS Tedric Thompson. This is one of those rare cases of, “well, it can’t get any worse.” I think Leavitt has them pointed in the right direction.

OUTLOOK
There is rare NCAA rule that allows a team to play 13 regular season games if one of them is the dreaded road trip to Hawaii. That is the case for CU this fall, meaning there is no bye week. Well, Nichols State in Week 4 is close. But no game can be overlooked anymore for Colorado, who has lost to a non-aq team in each of the past 4 seasons – including FCS Sacramento State in 2012. But with 13 games, 7 wins are now required for bowl eligibility, meaning that CU must take care of business in September AND win 3 league games. CU does draw the 5th and 6th ranked teams from the North, but both are away. I simply do not see 3 wins in this increasingly tough division and conference. The progress here should continue, but may not be as obvious in the win column.