2015 Big Ten East Division Preview

BRETT CIANCIA
August 1st, 2015

1. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

PLAYOFF PICK

After decades dreaming about it, years demanding it, and months arguing about it – the Playoff Era is finally here. As the #4 seed, Ohio State instantly proved the legitimacy of the new 4-team playoff by knocking off #1 Alabama and then #3 Oregon in the inaugural CFP Championship Game. We all saw the performances down the stretch, but the journey up to that point is nothing short of remarkable. Pegged as a preseason favorite to earn a Playoff bid, Ohio State lost its Heisman-caliber starting QB in August, lost in Week 2 and nearly dropped out of the polls. This coaching job by Urban Meyer goes down as one of the best ever, as he molded a freshman quarterback into a Heisman contender in 10 short weeks. But heading into the Big Ten Championship, injury struck again, and the 3rd string quarterback became the unlikely hero – leading the surging Buckeyes to three monumental wins: 59-0 over #11 Wisconsin, 42-35 over #1 Alabama, and of course 42-20 over #3 Oregon for the program’s 8th National Title.

How’s that for a storybook season?

The scary part is that many felt that the 2014 team was the precursor to an even better 2015 - the ‘next year is the year’ mentality. Well, considering how that team grew stronger with every game and every quarter…how can you NOT place Ohio State as the overwhelming favorites to defend their title?

Meyer, who has shown year after year that he is the most masterful motivator in the sport, has banned the team from using that very phrase: “defend the title.” Meyer says they aren’t defending anything, put the rings away, and go chase the 2015 Playoffs. It’s that forward thinking and motivational talent that helped him rally the 2012 team to an undefeated season (despite no postseason dreams), and to refocus the 2014 team through TWO starting quarterback injuries en route to the crystal football trophy.

OFFENSE
The much-talked about three-headed quarterback race has been shortened down to two, as 2011-2013 starter Braxton Miller moves to H-Back and slot receiver. The morning after the National Championship, I made this prediction on Fox Sports Ohio, and 6 months later it held true. My other prediction, however, is still very much up in the air. I have been saying that Cardale Jones will be the starter, but honestly it can go either way up until kickoff in Lane Stadium. JT Barrett has the larger sample size: 11-1 as a starter, 2834 yards, 34 passing TD. Cardale Jones has the championship success, and proved himself against 3 elite defenses in a row. Take your pick, Urban. There is no wrong answer, as either guy would likely start on upwards of 120 FBS teams.

It’s a shame that Big Ten All-Conference lists don’t wait until after bowl season, because it is wrong that Ezekiel Elliott was left with no mention at all. But his 246-yard, 4-touchdown show in the title game ranks up there with Vince Young for most dominant championship performance in quite some time. Behind Elliott is Curtis Samuel, an explosive back who earned 6.6 yards per carry, and was even receiving reps in the slot this spring. The receivers [except for the Virginia Tech game] will be fully loaded again, despite the departure of star Devin Smith. Michael Thomas is the big frame target, while speedsters like Jalin Marshall and Braxton Miller can score from anywhere on the field. Of the similar mold is Dontre Wilson, who is back from injury, and is another slot compliment to Corey Smith on the outsides. Marshall might just be the most versatile weapon, but again Urban, take your pick! The offensive line returns 4 starters, 3 of which are all-conference caliber, and Taylor Decker is a legit All-American candidate at left tackle. Whoever the QB is, Barrett or Jones, will have starting experience under his belt unlike being thrown into the fire last season. The starter will automatically become a Heisman contender, and I am expecting a boost from an already elite offense that scored 44.8 points per game (5th), rushed for 264 per game (9th), and averaged 6.98 yards per play (6th).

DEFENSE
Lost in the flash and celebration of the title run were the underlying issues on defense. Yes, I know this looks like nit picking, but honestly the defense was finding its way as the season progressed, finishing just outside the top 25. While the 2014 unit was solid, you got the feeling that the upcoming 2015 unit was the special one. And despite the loss of Michael Bennett up front, that sentiment looks to have held true. Joey Bosa turned down the NFL to return at DE alongside the disruptive Adolphus Washington in the interior. Bosa is drawing Top-5-pick hype, and remember it was him that shoved his blocker back all the way to knock down Christian Hackenberg – the game-saving sack in the Penn State overtime game. Pick Six Legend Steve Miller departs, but guys like Tyquan Lewis and Sam Hubbard should be in the rotation. I know Penn State gets the title of Linebacker U, and rightfully so. But in addition to having a claim towards being DB U, Ohio State sure has churned out quite a lineage of backers. Somewhat of a weakness last season looks to be a potential strength, as this core is LOADED with elite talent. Darron Lee impressed as a freshman, Raekwon McMillan was the former #1 linebacker recruit, and Joshua Perry brings the senior leadership. McMillan played a lot as a freshman and will be the focal point in the middle. Even a guy like Nick Conner, an incoming freshman, is turning heads this spring. Three starters return to the secondary, Eli Apple, Vonn Bell, and Tyvis Powell, and they all have all-conference talent.

Last season was somewhat of a transition year on defense as these super sophomores and phenom freshman broke onto the scene. Now the unit is a year stronger, wiser, and more experienced, and I am calling for improved numbers from top to bottom. I expect both the points output and efficiency stats to improve. Wow, what a “transition year” 2014 ended up being!

OUTLOOK
Ohio State opens the season as double-digit favorites in every game this season. Let that sink in for a second. That includes the Michigan State showdown that will decide the East Division and could potentially determine who represents the conference in the Playoff. I am calling for Ohio State to run the table, a perfect 13-0, and return to the Playoff – this time as the #1 seed, not the #4.

**Keep an eye on the season-opener at Virginia Tech which just got a whole lot more interesting with three receivers + Joey Bosa suspended. I will still say Bucks by 10.

2. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

TOP 40 PICK

You can put away all that talk about Michigan State being Michigan’s “little brothers.” Besides the 2012 down year when the program was catching its breath, the 5-year stretch includes a 46-8 record and 4 victories over Michigan. And those wins weren’t even close, as none of them were within two touchdowns. Mark Dantonio has excelled at player development and has a knack for turning 3-star recruits into All-Americans and draft picks. This season, the uniforms will don a commemorative patch that signifies the combined 24-3 record of 2013 and 2014, plus the two major bowl victories in the Rose and Cotton. Connor Cook was the quarterback in control of that entire patch; he and Shilique Calhoun both turned the NFL Draft despite 1st round forecasts. There is unfinished business here to attend to. Michigan State ruined Ohio State’s season in the 2013 Big Ten Championship, but the Buckeyes returned the favor last November. All signs are pointing towards the Week 12 showdown to determine who wins the East Division and likely who will represent the league in the College Football Playoff. That’s where the program’s sights are set, and there is legit reason for that high target. Dantonio has already done an excellent job here, but that ultimate prize of a national championship is within striking distance.

OFFENSE
The constant reloading on defense is admirable, but the recent surge on offense is just as shocking. A team that was stuck in the mud and averaging 20 points per game has flourished under Connor Cook’s lead, and last season scored 43 points per game (7th nationally). Cook’s 2013 season alone was intriguing to watch because the weekly progress and development was unfolding before our eyes, and culminated in the upset of Ohio State, and the out-dueling of Stanford’s elite defense. Last season, Michigan State actually led Oregon in the 3rd quarter before eventual-Heisman Marcus Mariota escaped a third and long to ignite the comeback. All of Michigan State’s wins were dominant; even the Nebraska game was utter dominance for 3.5 quarters until a furious comeback attempt came inches short. If you take a look at our 2014 key statistics heat map (left) Michigan State excelled in essentially every category (so much green!). This season, the strength (besides Cook) is in the offensive line, a unit that already was averaging 5.15 yards per carry in 2014 (27th) and returns 4 starters – 2 of which are legit All-American candidates. Jack Allen (center) looks like the best offensive lineman of the Dantonio era, while Jeff Conklin also has NFL potential and over 100 knockdowns to show for it. He has been trained by the best by competing against Calhoun 1 on 1 every day in practice for three seasons. Losing 1522-yard rusher Jeremy Langford will hurt, but the loss is not as damaging when you factor in that this line will be one of the nation’s finest, and the holes will be manageable for any new back to thrive. Gerald Holmes runs hard and doesn’t go down easy; he and Madre London will share carries. Also gone are Cook’s two top targets including Tony Lippett who put up 1198 yards. Macgarrett Kings can be used on WR sweeps that this offense seems so fond of, RJ Shelton will thrive in the slot with intermediate routes and bubble screens, and DeAnthony Arnett (Tennessee-transfer) is highly-touted and ready for a big role. While there are not really defined #1-#3 targets yet, there are enough pieces and weapons to field a potent attack again. Remember that the QB who will be distributing the ball to them is 16-1 in Big Ten play.

DEFENSE
The self-dubbed “No Fly Zone” took a step back last year, from their previously-earned elite standards (227 pass yards allowed per game, 61st). Regardless, the Dantonio/Narduzzi machine churned on. There is no such thing as a rebuilding year with this defense, as they reload annually. Back-to-back 1st round corners (Dennard 2014, Waynes 2015) have left, but there is reason to believe this defense can again finish in the top 25 again. In fact, the strong front seven is reason to think a top 10 finish is possible. As mentioned, Calhoun has 1st round talent at defensive end, which will free up even more action for the opposite end: Lawrence Thomas who himself is a force to be reckoned with. Several playmakers up front means there is not enough offensive line attention to go around. More havoc will be caused. Michigan State finished 2nd in the Big Ten in both disruption stats: sacks and interceptions. The backers are also some of the nation’s finest. Riley Bullough continues the family tradition and will not only start at MLB but may be a captain just like his older brother Max. Ed Davis and Darien Harris flank him at the outside backer spots, both senior returning starters. For the first time in a while, the secondary is actually the questionable spot of this defensive unit, as the entire original “No Fly Zone” has graduated and/or gone pro. Darian Hicks is a returning starter at corner, but with Waynes’ departure, even more responsibility falls on his plate. In this defensive scheme, so much more pressure is put on the corners to play press coverage and control their island. This is where Dennard and Waynes thrived, and may take some adjusting to for new guys. Look out for the young Montae Nicholson, Pennsylvania’s top prospect, to start at one of the safety spots and for Vayante Copeland to contribute in the secondary.

Pat Narduzzi was Dantonio’s defensive coordinator here for 11 seasons and as one of the most sought-after football minds for years, he will take over the Pittsburgh program as head coach. It is easy to expect a drop off due to his departure, but remember that Dantonio is a defense-first guy who has coached under Nick Saban and Jim Tressel. Further, he promotes co-defensive coordinators from within the system. Both Harlon Barnett and Mike Tressel have been on staff since 2004 and know the entire roster and defensive scheme inside-and-out. With star power in the front seven, I expect another elite defense here on the banks of the Red Cedar.

OUTLOOK
Oregon makes the return trip to East Lansing in perhaps the best non-conference game of 2015. Marcus Mariota was the difference-maker last year, and despite hype around EWU-transfer Vernon Adams, there is much uncertainty there, and I am calling for MSU to defend home turf. The win over Oregon will propel MSU into the top 4 or 5 heading into the three season-defining road trips: AT Michigan, AT Nebraska, AT Ohio State. That third one will decide the division, essentially the conference, and who will represent the Big Ten in the Playoff. For now, it is impossible to pick against Ohio State’s near-perfect roster, but anything can happen in one game (see: 2013 Big Ten title). That said, Michigan State has some of the best lines in the country and a future NFL star at QB making them one of the best teams in the country and placing them on the cusp of a Playoff season.

3. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Scandal struck Happy Valley in November of 2011, and over the following offseason the NCAA dropped the hammer on Penn State. With crippling scholarship reductions and a 4-year bowl ban, I correctly called for drops in the win column every year since. Heading into Year 4 post-meltdown, the program is in a high place no one – not even the State College locals, could have ever imagined. Bill O’Brien calmed the storm in his 2-year recovery here, then handed the keys over to Central Pennsylvanian James Franklin who did the unthinkable at lowly Vanderbilt: win football games. Then, in September last season, the NCAA lifted the bowl ban and vastly reduced the sanctions. And despite another regular season step back in the win column, it is almost as if a dark cloud has been removed from above Beaver Stadium. The proverbial sun may actually be shining through this fall, as optimism is running high around the program, and for good reason.

OFFENSE
You’ve seen his name atop all kinds of NFL Draft mocks despite a poor TD – INT ratio of 12-15 last season. But last season Christian Hackenberg was going through a coaching change, the loss of his All-American target Allen Robinson, and a depleted offensive line that lost its top 6 guys. The area that scholarship reductions damage the most is in the trenches, and boy did it show last season on the Penn State offense. Behind this makeshift line, PSU rushed for a program-low 102 yards per game (120th nationally). The offensive line’s experience level and talent level both rise heading into 2015 with the return of 4 starters and the additions of Sterling Jenkins, Ryan Bates, and JUCO-transfer Paris Palmer who looks to start at left tackle. I expect more protection for Hackenberg, and see him starting to live up to the national hype. His raw talent and upside are certainly there, but due to the line’s woes in 2014, those qualities have not been reflected on the stat sheet. The third-year starter benefits from perhaps the best receiving corps in the league, led by DaeSean Hamilton, and Geno Lewis. Don’t forget that the Penn State tight end group is the deepest and best position unit on the team – even with the early departure of Jesse James. Mike Gesicki earned all-Freshman honors last year, while the highly-touted Adam Breneman returns from missing the entire 2014 season. Kyle Carter, Brent Wilkerson, and Tom Pancoast add depth to the stable.

While the offensive line continues to improve, look for heavy amounts of one-step smoke routes and quick slants. These are good for 5-7 yards a pop, but given this set of playmakers, any completion has the potential to break off a big gain. It will be about distributing the ball to the skill guys, including returning leading rusher Akeel Lynch who looks poised for a big season. All signs are pointing up for this unit; the offensive line simply cannot be worse, and Hackenberg now benefits from the second-year coach bonus in the Franklin/Donovan system.

DEFENSE
For as abysmal the offense was, the 2014 Penn State defense looked like the elite units of old. As you can see from our stat box (left), Bob Shoop’s defense ranked in the top 10 of every major category, and even won the 3rd down and red zone keys. While it will be difficult to improve on such a top-notch season, there is reason to believe that the drop-off will be minimized. Anthony Zettel is the unquestioned leader on the defense, and along with Carl Nassib, will fill the void at defensive end left behind by Deion Barnes. Zettel looks like the exact definition of a “disruptive” end by registering eight sacks and THREE interceptions. Linebacker U (no, UCLA, you are not Linebacker U) loses its leader in the middle in Mike Hull (140 tackles), by Nyeem Wartman is moving in from the outside spot. Coaches and media alike are high on Wartman and I expect no dropoff from the famed middle tier here. Ben Kline missed 2014, but his return is met by the surge of Von Walker, the former RB who plays with intensity and emotion. The secondary returns three starters including the aggressive sophomore Marcus Allen, and seniors Jordan Lucas and Trevor Williams. Look for Troy Apke to add some depth as well, after playing in 7 games as a true freshman last season. Yes, the defense loses some star power, but enough talent returns to make this a stout unit again in Shoop’s second season at the helm. Familiarity at defensive coordinator has been rare here since long-time coordinator Tom Bradley’s departure. So the playbook consistency, added scholarship depth, and strong recruiting make a defensive regression seem unlikely.

OUTLOOK
The non-conference slate is perhaps the easiest in all of Power 5 football, with the only road game being in Philadelphia, which will essentially be a home atmosphere. Even PSU’s 4th Big Ten road game is taking place in Baltimore (vs. Maryland) and should at least be 50/50, if not pro-PSU. The Rutgers game in Week 3 is already pegged as a primetime kickoff, and the bitterness between these fan bases is certainly rising. With homefield advantage, I am calling for a PSU win and I expect a 6-0 start. PSU must face the two East favorites Ohio State and Michigan State on the road, but gets the key swing game against Michigan in Happy Valley, and draw bottom-feeders Illinois and Northwestern out of the West.

Even through the recruiting restrictions, Penn State still rates 5th in the Big Ten in our Weighted Average Talent Index, with even stronger talent in the younger classes (3rd 2014, 2nd 2015). These young guys will have more of an opportunity thanks to the newly expanded roster, and don’t forget that there are enough proven veterans already in place for Penn State to look like a possible 10-win team. But all things considered, I am calling for a 9-3 season and 3rd place finish in the East.

4. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Unless you live under a rock or prefer the other kind of futbol, you are well aware of Michigan’s new head coach. Jim Harbaugh returns to Ann Arbor after quarterbacking the 1986 and 1987 teams to top ten finishes. He brings with him a trademark high-intensity and a penchant for getting the most out of his teams. This seems to be a complete shift of gears from Brady Hoke, who continually squandered high recruiting talent and saw the win total decrease in each of his 4 seasons here. Much help is needed on offense, a unit that finished towards the bottom in every category. While transition years are expected through coaching changes, any amount of “rebuilding” will be forgiven by a win on November 28th against “Ohio.” The Buckeyes have dominated the series by winning 12 of 14 since 2001, but the long list of comparisons to the great upset of 1969 is certainly eye-catching.

OFFENSE
Hoke’s first two teams featured the do-it-all Denard Robinson being forced to do too much, and then in 2013 the wheels started falling off as Devin Gardner’s poor decision-making placed a low ceiling on the unit’s potential. Gardner passed for a 10-15 TD-INT ratio in 2014, and will be succeeded by incumbent Shane Morris or Iowa-transfer Jake Rudock. I expect the seasoned veteran Rudock to win the job despite missing spring, as he was a solid 2-year Big Ten starter. The running back stable is full of potential, it’s just a matter of who will step up and seize the bulk of the carries. Former 5-star Derrick Green has not lived up to hype, De’veon Smith looks the part and will be joined by bulldozer Ty Isaac, the USC-transfer. Jake Butt steps up to fill the void of Devin Funchess. Amara Darboh is the only proven threat at receiver; he brings the speed to stretch the field vertically. Keep an eye on the potential use of Jabril Peppers on offense in addition to his starting role at corner and in the return game. The yards per carry number (4.6) is relatively better to the atrocious passing stats, which leads me to believe that the offensive line should be decent enough to protect the new starter and open holes for the rotation of backs. Overall the line is improved and well-experienced, led by Kyle Kalis at right guard.

Harbaugh is an offensive mind, and a great one at that. While coaching transitions can take time, I do see immediate improvements on this side of the ball thanks to an improved front, and an experienced Big Ten quarterback. “Improvements” isn’t saying much based off of the weak 2014 output, but still, signs are pointing up.

DEFENSE
Even with the offense continually placing them in tough situations, the 2014 defense was actually quite good. All major defensive categories finished in the top 25, with the exception of points per game (22.4) which ended up a shade below at 27th nationally. These strongpoints may explain why Harbaugh decided to keep defensive coordinator Greg Mattison on staff as the defensive line coach. Up front, starting ends Frank Clark and Brennen Beyer must be replaced, but the talented classes of 2012-2014 remain in the cupboard. Despite losing leading tackler Jake Ryan, Michigan does return Joe Bolden who is known for his impact hits and deserves all-conference hype. Even Desmond Morgan’s return adds former starting experience here in the middle. The secondary returns intact except for an essential transfer trade at corner. Lockdown corner Blake Countess moves south to Auburn for his final season, but Stanford-transfer Wayne Lyons will fill the void. With the continuity of Mattison on staff, 8 returning starters, and even to an extent, Harbaugh’s high intensity, I see another top 25 defensive effort this fall.

OUTLOOK
Comparing Michigan’s non-conference slate to that of Penn State is simply unfair. Michigan opens the season with a Thursday night trip to Utah, hosts Pac-12 Oregon State, and then hosts the physical BYU Cougars in Week 4. 3 wins out of September should be considered a success. From the West Division, Michigan draws Northwestern for homecoming, but the trip to Minnesota could be trouble. Even worse, the two East favorites Ohio State and Michigan State are both home games. While that sounds contradictory, it means that these two were probably un-winnable games, and the homefield advantages are wasted. The key swing games (Penn State, Minnesota) are both on the road, which is a definite negative. I expect some offensive progress, but still a rebuilding/transition type season in Harbaugh’s debut. 6/7 wins looks likely. And all that talk about a 1969 repeat? Pour out that maize and blue kool-aid…

5. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

The 1869 National Champs are fresh off their 10th bowl appearance all-time and 9th since 2005. The Scarlet Knights competed in the Big East from 1991 until 2012 when the league was poached by conference realignment and resurfaced as the American (AAC). After just one season there, Rutgers shocked many and joined the Midwestern-based Big Ten with Maryland. Many are calling out the Big Ten for its talent imbalance between the East and West Divisions. While these things are cyclical and nature (take a look at the early-2000s Big 12, and late-1990s SEC), there is no avoiding that 4 powerhouse football brands (Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State) outnumber the 2 in the West (Nebraska, Wisconsin). Rutgers finds itself entrenched in one of the most loaded divisions in football, but exceeded expectations in their 2014 debut. Picked last unanimously, Rutgers rallied for 3 league wins including a win over Michigan and a near-upset over Penn State. That 3-point loss in mid-September will look to be avenged this season. Despite the all-time series deficit (2-23), this has the makings of a heated rivalry between the border states of New Jersey and Pennsylvania. As much as holier-than-thou Penn State fans will attempt to ignore it, this series is gaining momentum, especially with the recruiting battles taking place in the fertile grounds of North Jersey and Southeastern PA, and head coach Kyle Flood’s repeated emphasis on locking down the state borders. Taking a card out of the Woody Hayes playbook, Flood refuses to call PSU by name, and only refers to them as “that team from Pennsylvania.” Besides the much-anticipated primetime rematch, Rutgers has reason for optimism to return to its 5th consecutive bowl game, even if the overall win total isn’t matched.

OFFENSE
Long-time starting quarterback Gary Nova departs and leaves a battle between two sophomore signal-callers. Chris Laviano played in five games last season in a backup role behind the injured Nova. He was effective running the ball in the Nebraska game, demonstrated mobility, but his small sample of passing wasn’t exactly convincing. Hayden Rettig, brother of former Boston College QB Chase, transferred in from LSU after gaining several high-school accolades. At the conclusion of spring practice, Laviano has a small lead, but anything can happen in fall camp. New offensive coordinator Ben McDaniels, Josh’s brother, should feel comfortable with either guy. McDaniels has been on staff for 6 years and is under the tutelage of Ralph Friedgen who built the Maryland program and was OC here last season. Several weapons in the skill positions keep the ceiling high for this offense that averaged a mediocre 26.7 points per game (83rd nationally). 5 backs rushed for 300+ yards in 2014; Paul James entered as the featured back but was injured again (ACL) after 4 games, opening the door for freshman Josh Hicks. I expect a healthy James to split carries with Hicks who ran for 202 and a score in the bowl game, and impressed in the spring. The receiver set is also very talented, led by all-conference Leonte Caroo who eclipsed 1000 yards in 2014. Andre Patton is another returning starter, Carlton Agudosi adds a 6’6” frame, and the small, elusive Janarion Grant has proved he can be the much-needed go-to guy on 3rd downs. Tight end Tyler Kroft will be missed, along with 4 departing starting linemen. This is the biggest question mark on the team, but Flood’s relatively strong recruiting should start to pay dividends as more of a “reload” than a “rebuild.” Rutgers ranks 6th in the Big Ten (39th nationally) in our Weighted Average Talent Index (left). It will be key to get the ball out to their stable of playmakers, and McDaniels’ first project is getting this new line to gel as a cohesive unit (and hopefully in time for the Week 3 showdown in Happy Valley).

DEFENSE
The yardage numbers were OK last season, but issues are exposed in the efficiency stats of yards per carry (5.53, 120th) and yards per play (6.39, 113th). This all amounted to allowing 30.2 points per game in Joe Rossi’s first season as defensive coordinator. Signs are pointing up despite just 5 returning starters. First, those starters are impact players, and even budding stars at that. Secondly, the overall unit benefits from the second year coach bonus, another year of familiarity of Rossi’s system and defensive philosophy. Finally, conference switches are difficult due to the number of new opponents, especially when the style is different. The Big Ten is known for power football and strong rushing attacks; expect Rutgers to be more ready for the punches in the trenches this fall. Darius Hamilton is the star up front, and returns with 11.5 tackles for loss. Some names to look out for include sophomore Kemoko Turay and former blue-chip recruit Quanzell Lambert who may even get reps at nose tackle. The linebackers are the strength of the unit, even in the loss of do-it-all Kevin Snyder. Steve Longa is of the same versatile mold, and will compete for all-conference honors and match his 102 tackles of 2014. Quentin Gause also added 72 tackles and forms quite the duo with Longa. The secondary has several question marks, and hopes to become more disruptive than the 6-interception output last season. Overall, I see some improvement on defense for the above reasons and star power in the front seven.

OUTLOOK
All eyes are on that BigTenNetwork primetime Penn State game in Week 3, but the actual swing game for bowl eligibility may just be the prior game against Washington State. Rutgers draws both West Division favorites Wisconsin and Nebraska, and gets East favorites Ohio State and Michigan State both at home. This means that Rutgers’ best shots at conference wins are mostly on the road. Assuming they take care of Norfolk State, Kansas, Army, Indiana, and Maryland, RU needs that Wazzou win, or must pull off a road win (PSU, Michigan) or huge upset over division favorites. Ultimately, I see a solid team in tough division with a brutal schedule. I am calling for 6 or 7 wins, a 5th place finish in the East, and another bowl appearance.

Q&A Feature with SBNation

6. INDIANA HOOSIERS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

2007 is Indiana’s most recent winning season and bowl appearance, and the only since the year this senior class was born (1994). After 9 years coaching at Oklahoma, Kevin Wilson took over as head coach here in 2011. His first and second seasons were labeled as rebuilding/transitional years and the 2013 and 2014 teams were veteran-filled. Those were supposed to be the breakthrough years, each with 17 starters returning that featured a dynamic duo of quarterbacks and a speedy tailback. Each season featured an important win for the program. 2013 saw Indiana not just upset, but thoroughly dominate PSU, winning 44-24 for the first time in school history after losing the first 16 in the series. Then in 2014, they knocked off eventual SEC Eastern Division champs #18 Missouri, the first win over a top 20 opponent since 2006. Yes, these were the high points of the Wilson era, and should not be underappreciated. But both of these seasons failed to return the program to bowl season, finishing 5-7 and then 4-8. There is reason to believe that the Hoosiers can climb out of the division basement and reach that elusive 6-win total here in Wilson’s 5th season.

OFFENSE
In 2012, this was a pass-first attack that averaged 311 yards passing per game to just 131 rushing. Two seasons later, the output has essentially flipped, as the Hoosiers averaged 264 yards rushing (10th nationally) and just 141 passing (122nd). This mostly is a byproduct of a combination of injuries at the quarterback position that first sidelined starter Nate Sudfield and then knocked out backup Chris Covington. Zander Diamont played well in the Old Oaken Bucket game, including the game-winning score over rival Purdue. However, after the Iowa game in which Sudfield injured his non-throwing shoulder, Tevin Coleman was forced to shoulder even more of the workload. Coleman ended with 2036 yards, 15 touchdowns and an incredible 7.3 yards per carry to earn the school’s first All-American honors since Antwaan Randle El (sidenote: if you have 5 minutes to spare, Randle El’s highlight tape is must-see). Coleman’s departure, and Sudfield’s healthy return both act towards bringing more of a passing emphasis. While Coleman simply cannot be replaced, the Hoosiers do bring in 1st team All-C-USA RB Jordan Howard, who will be the featured back here after leaving UAB at their program’s termination. Devine Redding helped carry the load in the Missouri upset, and should share carries with Howard this season. Meanwhile at receiver, the top two targets leave but a trio of sophomores will take the reps: J-Shun Harris, Simmie Cobbs, and Dominique Booth. Wilson mentioned that TE Anthony Corsaro is a target to look out for this fall. But perhaps the best news for the 2015 offense is that the offensive line looks like Wilson’s best yet. Jason Spriggs and Dan Feeney headline the unit and are in the mix for all-conference honors. With Sudfield back, and a stout offensive line in front of him, I am calling for much improved passing numbers, even if that means that the rushing totals take a hit. The important part is keeping the yards per carry at a high level (5.87, 9th nationally in 2014). Look for the points per game to fall somewhere between the 2014 (25.1) and 2013 (38.4) outputs, most likely in the low 30’s.

DEFENSE
With 9 starters returning last season, the defense cut off a full touchdown per game but the 32.8 points per game still needs improvement to reach bowl season. Yards per carry (4.87, 98th) and yards per play (5.85, 91st) were also noticeably poor. Defensive coordinator Brian Knoor is in his second season here, so naturally a boost should come from familiarity with the system. It is technically a 3-4 but looks more like a 4-3 at times, especially with Nick Mangieri who is somewhat of a hybrid DE/OLB. The top two tacklers are back: strong safety Antonio Allen (74 tackles) and middle linebacker TJ Simmons (72). Tegray Scales had moments of brilliance in his freshman season (46 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 3 INT) and will build off that success in his second year. Also at linebacker is former backup QB Chris Covington, back from ACL injury. While the unit has some holes to fill, and may not have the roster talent of its East opponents, there are enough pieces for Knoor to gel a competent unit and get that second year coach bonus.

OUTLOOK
I see a 4-0 start, which is rare grounds for IU Football. The September slate includes 3 cupcakes and then a trip to Wake Forest, who is one of the worst Power 5 teams. Indiana benefits from a relatively easier cross-division pair of Iowa (home) and Purdue (away), which both have potential to be victories. Should that 4-0 start hold true, I think Indiana will find the 2 necessary conference wins to get to a total of 6 and a bowl invitation. However, look out for a trap game to ruin the outlook; Wilson has lost to a non-AQ team in each of his 4 seasons

7. MARYLAND TERRAPINS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

At the beginning of his decade at the helm, Ralph Friedgen brought the school its first double-digit win season since 1976, and then proceeded to continue the trend in his second and third seasons. After that gilded stretch, results were more inconsistent, and he was eventually let go after the 2010 season despite winning 9 games and the ACC Coach of the Year Award for a second time. His successor, Randy Edsall, has had to deal with a hefty amount of injuries and a change no one saw coming: a move to the Big Ten. Maryland is as ACC as it gets. UM was a founding member and over the course of 62 years built tradition-filled rivalries, most notably UVA in football and Duke on the hardwood. In their inaugural season in the Midwest-centered Big Ten, the Terps exceeded expectations and were two 3-point finishes away from a 9-win regular season. To come into a new conference and beat classic brands such as Michigan, Iowa, and Penn State certainly sent shockwaves through the league. That last one was especially important for regional bragging rights, and was important to back up their brash actions in the captains circle before kickoff. Taking a page out of the 1980s Miami playbook, Maryland players refused to shake hands with Penn State – this coming from a program that was just 1-35 against the Nittany Lions. The 20-19 win in Happy Valley was a big one for the program, to say the least. But now moving into year two, a dozen starters depart, and last year’s 3rd place finish in the talented Big Ten East seems like an even higher mark to match.

OFFENSE
The CJ Brown era is finally done, and there are three candidates to take over for the tough quarterback who endured through injuries for years here. Perry Hills (Jr) is a known quantity as an efficient game manager, while Shane Cockerille brings more athleticism and the ability to effectively run the zone read. But heading into fall camp the starting job looks to belong to Caleb Rowe, who missed spring ball but was Brown’s backup last season and passed for 489 yards (63% completion). The new quarterback will benefit from a core of receivers that looks poised for a breakout season after failing to meet the high expectations set last preseason. Heading into 2014, we felt that the WR duo of Stefon Diggs and Deon Long would be among the nation’s elite. But the ground game had failures that restricted the pass game, and despite decent receiving yards from the pair, the unit was underwhelming. Long has graduated and Diggs elected to go pro, but there are some bright spots ready to step up. Marcus Leak is the returning leader with 20 catches for 297 and 3 touchdowns in 2014. Leak matched that touchdown total in less than 2 full quarters in the spring game, and certainly looks dominant with his combination of size and power. Juwann Winfree looks to be the second target, and it is finally time for Levern Jacobs to be a key contributor. Jacobs has also been a spring game hero the past few seasons, but now looks ready to help on Saturdays. Look for more involvement from the tight ends: Andrew Isaacs returns and former defender Derrick Heyward has a big frame and is putting it together here on the other side of the ball. The backs had ball control issues in 2014, and this has certainly been a point of emphasis. CJ Brown was actually the leading rusher, but leading returning rushers Brandon Ross and Wes Brown should split carries. A nice weapon on offense is Jacquille Veii, who they call the “Swiss Army Knife” due to his versatility both rushing and receiving. 3 of 5 lineman return, but the unit looks to be a bit weaker than last year’s unit that only rendered 3.7 yards per carry (98th). Last season’s 28.5 points per game was average nationally, but I am calling for a small step back until the new quarterback can prove otherwise.

DEFENSE
The 52 points allowed against both division champs is not desirable, but is at least a bit expected. But the 41 and 40 allowed against Rutgers and West Virginia were less acceptable, and both winnable games flipped the other way as a result. The 30.2 points allowed per game finished 89th nationally, and there is a lot of attrition from that unit. Just one starter from the front seven returns, but is a star of the team. Yannick Ngakoue is a force at defensive end, and registered 6 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss in 2014. After being solid against the run in 2012 and 2013, the unit regressed a bit last season. Some of that can be attributed to the shift of playing style from the ACC to the run-heavy Big Ten. But no less, Ngakoue has minimal experience around him this fall, and I expect more double teams to limit his disruption. 3 new starters will fill the second level of the defense; most likely: Jermaine Carter, Abner Logan, and Jalen Brooks. Another star of the team is Will Likely who is deserving of All-Big Ten honors and also returned both a punt and a kickoff for touchdowns last season. A pair of senior safeties return: Sean Davis and Anthony Nixon. It’s always a challenge to adjust to a new league, and the Big Ten certainly has its own style of physicality and ground attacks. I think it may take another year of growing pains defensively before it gets better here.

OUTLOOK
After two tune-up games against Richmond and Bowling Green, Maryland hosts USF and gets a rematch trip to Morgantown. I expect a 3-1 opening frame before a brutal Big Ten slate. Maryland gets defending West champion Wisconsin and Iowa on the road, a tough inter-division draw. The Terps also only get 3 Big Ten home games due to hosting Penn State in Baltimore, a game that may be more Penn Staters than home staters. The two best bets of conference wins come in the final two weeks, hosting Indiana and traveling to Rutgers. But I am calling for a last-place finish