2015 ACC Coastal Division Preview

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
August 1st, 2015

1. GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

What a difference a year makes. This time last year, Paul Johnson was on the hot seat after going 7-6 and losing all of the big games, including a game to an uncharacteristically bad Georgia team. However, after picking Georgia Tech 4th in last year's preview (which was technically higher than the national average), I said that this offense was missing something ever since Josh Nesbitt graduated. Tevin Washington was an efficient option operator, but lacked the top-notch athleticism to truly make his option of the spread option a big threat. However, I’ll admit, I was a bit skeptical of Johnson during the Tevin Washington era because Washington was indeed solid and the overall roster talent seemed sub-par, which is his responsibility. Next, Vad Lee was just a terrible fit. And my oh my, he found his QB in Justin Thomas, who may have been a step slow for the majority of the season because early in the first few games and then again in the Orange Bowl, he was flying.

OFFENSE
And fortunately, Thomas returns. While not a lot around him returns—only 4 other starters on offense—the majority of the offensive line returns. However, Shaq Mason had one of the biggest impacts an offensive lineman can possibly have. Watching Georgia Tech play at the end of last season was like watching a high school football team with one 5-star, 6’5” 330 pound offensive guard. While Mason was only about 6’0”, his impact was that great. Now, his running mates were pretty good too; they were not the 5'8" 220 scrub high school linemen. I'm just trying to paint a picture of how great Mason was. Freddie Burden and Bryan Chamberlain were very good in their first years as starters. Trey Braun struggled sometimes when he pulled, but was usually effective when he just needed to block the man lining up across from him. Shamire Devine and Gary Brown are intriguing options to replace Mason. Devine is 6’7” and 350 pounds and Brown was the scout team offensive player of the year last year. Without Mason, I don’t think this unit will be improved, but it should still be very good. Aside from Broderick Snoddy, all of the running backs are gone. Snoddy is one of the fastest players in football so his return will be huge. With Thomas back, I am confident the running backs will be productive, especially players like Isiah Willis and Clinton Lynch who have been running the system for over a year now. And if Thomas and Coach Johnson can get the freshmen running backs up to speed, we could see a whole different threat at B-Back that we haven't seen since Jonathan Dwyer was in Atlanta. Marcus Marshall looks to be one of the recruiting diamonds in the rough and could make an immediate impact. Wide receivers DeAndre Smelter and Darren Waller are both gone to the NFL. Waller came on at the end of the season, but Smelter was dynamite all year. The good news? The Yellow Jackets really only need to find one bonafide number one receiver to replace Smelter. Micheal Summers is not the prototypical cyborg who plays wide receiver for Georgia Tech, but has speed and could be called upon to do a good job. Ideally, someone else will step up and Summers starts on the other side. True freshman Christian Philpott has all the makings of the next great Georgia Tech receiver. He has speed to burn and is already a big kid. Since the Yellow Jacket offense doesn’t employ a complicated route tree, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him end the year as Thomas’ favorite target if he is willing to block.

DEFENSE
I do believe the Yellow Jacket offense will be very good. It always is under Paul Johnson, and QB Justin Thomas returns. And if Justin Thomas gets hurt, Tim Byerly is one of the best backup QBs in the country. However, Georgia Tech had a relatively fortunate season last year. Most years, the Jackets would have lost to Georgia Southern, Virginia Tech, and Georgia. But this year, the ball bounced their way at the end of games. The reason why I am picking them to repeat is because of the anticipated jump in defensive production. Last year, this defense ranked 111th in yards per play and 105th in yards per carry. The defensive line pretty much consisted of Adam Gotsis being blocked by two players and true freshman KeShun Freeman occasionally getting to the QB. And the anticipated improvement all starts with the return of Jabari Hunt at defensive tackle. Hunt was a former linebacker turned defensive lineman. He didn’t qualify academically last year so he had to sit out and practice his new position on the scout team. With players like Shaq Mason saying he was the best defensive tackle he faced all year, there is reason for the hype, and his performance in the spring game didn’t dismiss any of it. With him and Adam Gotsis in the middle and KeShun Freeman entering his second season at DE, this defensive line goes from being very sorry to potentially very good. Freeman held up very well his freshman season and did surprisingly well against the run given his leaner frame, but wasn’t a super explosive pass rusher. Kenderius Whitehead has generated a lot of buzz as he transferred from junior college last offseason, but didn’t qualify academically. If Whitehead or sophomore Antonio Simmons can step up as a true edge rusher, this defense will improve exponentially from last year. The back seven returns a lot minus All-ACC linebacker Quayshawn Nealy. Beau Hankins will have to replace him this year, and if he can, this defense will certainly improve on its 25.7 points per game allowed. Chris Milton and DJ White are another solid pairing of cornerbacks; White, particularly, seems to be underrated by everyone. If he can put together another good season, he will hear his name called in the NFL draft.

BOTTOM LINE
At the end of the day, I grouped this division into three tiers. Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech are in the first tier. And if you know anything about the ACC, this is how it should be until otherwise proven. Duke took advantage of down years from these two programs in 2013, but the Dukies will probably have a down year in 2015, so it’s still “prove me wrong” on the two Techs. While Virginia Tech’s defense might be the best individual side of the ball in the ACC, Georgia Tech’s offense should be explosive yet again and its defense should be improved. The one concern for Georgia Tech is the schedule. Florida State and Notre Dame are added to an already tough schedule that features Georgia and Clemson every year. However, the Jackets get North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Florida State, and Virginia Tech at home this year so in that regard it’s manageable. The one question is: what will Paul Johnson do from now until the season starts? His Jackets aren’t being underrated for once. Oh I know—he will probably talk about how the SEC is overrated after clobbering Georgia and Mississippi State last year.

2. VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

From 2004 to 2011, Virginia Tech had either 10 or 11 wins each season. Since 2012, the Hokies have finished with 7, 8, and 7 wins, consecutively. As for the golden question, “What is going on?,” we don’t truly know. Aside from the Tyrod Taylor years, this offense has rarely averaged over 30 points per game. The defense hasn’t been linearly declining, but since 2010, it has given up an average of 20.1 points per game. In 2008 and 2009, the defense was giving up about 16 points per game, good enough for top 10 in the country. You could make an argument that this program lost its edge back in 2010 when the backbone of this program, its lunch pail defense, went from being a top 10 defense to a top 20 defense and that the great Tyrod Taylor masked that dropoff for two years in 2010 and 2011 with an abnormally potent offense. While the numbers may have slipped a bit in the last four years the defenses have still been very good. So why is the offense, which hasn’t been a historically great unit in Blacksburg, to blame for the recent struggles? I truly cannot answer that with any sort of definitive statement. Perhaps Beamer truly has lost his edge. Perhaps the slight, but noticeable, increase in overall ACC competition has been enough to hand the Hokies two extra losses per season. Perhaps the offense, which is usually solid, has slipped to outright bad.

OFFENSE
Texas Tech transfer Michael Brewer did not remind anyone of Tyrod Taylor in his first season under center last year. He showed a lot of moxy and flashed playmaking ability, but was one of the most inconsistent players in the country last year. He lost some of his playmakers to injury during the season, but sometimes made very bone-headed decisions that I simply cannot chalk up to being unfamiliar with the system as he finished with 15 interceptions and was sacked 34 times, often for holding on to the ball too long. With Marshawn Williams returning at running back as well as JC Coleman and a litter of other former 4 star recruits, the running game will definitely be improved from a running back standpoint after injuries decimated this position last year. However, it is unwise to evaluate a running game based on the running backs. The offensive line struggled last year and now only returns two starters—all signs point to another long season. Even with spring reports saying the O-line has improved, it’s reached a point where you just say, “I’ll believe it when I see it.”

DEFENSE
Now, I will try to keep this part as short as I can, but there is a lot to be excited about when discussing the defense. It is talented, it is experienced, and it is proven. Dadi Nicolas, Corey Marshall, Luther Maddy, and Ken Ekanem make up one of the best defensive fronts in all of football, and can be spelled by other talented players like Nigel Williams, an All-ACC performer in 2014. The Hokies racked up 48 sacks last year and allowed only 3.89 yards per carry. There are really only three considerable losses: Kyshoen Jarrett, Chase Williams, and Detrick Bonner. However, the secondary is stocked, making the losses of Jarrett and Bonner acceptable. However, Chase Williams was a very good linebacker so his loss is a bit worrisome considering his impact and his position in the middle of the defense. However, Deon Clarke is an athletic playmaker at linebacker who was tailor-made for Foster’s aggressive scheme as he tallied five sacks last year and will be expected to make plays in space as opposing teams’ offensive lines are preoccupied with the Hokie front. And finally--I don't know how Torian Gray does it--the VT secondary once again looks amazing. Kendall Fuller is one of the elite shut-down corners in the nation and Brandon Facyson and Chuck Clark would make an otherwise above-average cornerback pairing. In short, look for this defense to be dominant in 2015. Only Louisville has comparable talent, but most of it is in the front seven. Since Virginia Tech has arguably the best secondary in college football, the Hokies reign supreme on defense.

BOTTOM LINE
The Coastal has essentially come down to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech since ACC expansion in 2004. Duke went two years ago, but either the Yellow Jackets or Hokies represented the division in the ACC Championship game in the other nine years, and 2015 figures to be no different. Virginia Tech’s schedule gets more difficult this year as they trade Wake Forest for up-and-coming North Carolina State. However, keeping Georgia Tech in mind, the Virginia Tech’s schedule is very favorable. Not only do the Hokies avoid the big three in Florida State, Clemson, and Louisville, but Georgia Tech draws Florida State and Clemson. And if you think Brad Kaaya is Miami’s messiah, the Hurricanes draw the same Atlantic schedule as the Yellow Jackets. Since Georgia Tech’s defense should be improved with a better line, coupled with the fact that the Hokies have to travel to Atlanta on a Thursday night, I stuck to my guns and picked Georgia Tech to repeat in the Coastal. However, this was one of the toughest decisions I had to make and could easily see the Hokies taking advantage of their soft schedule and, once again, winning the Coastal division.

3. MIAMI HURRICANES

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

Well Al Golden, you’ve clearly left your best coaching days in Philadelphia, but if there was ever a time to go back to those days—it’s now. Formerly coached by Joe Paterno, Golden became one of the hottest names in football, turning around Temple from obscurity. If he could do that at a school like Temple, which has an average recruiting base, no history, and no considerable resources, then he can surely return “The U” to all of its glory. Well, so far, he is recruiting well—maybe not quite as well as Randy Shannon—and is seemingly developing his players, but with nothing to show for it. In his fifth season, it’s do or die for Al Golden.

OFFENSE
Fortunately, he may have found his QB in Brad Kaaya although Hurricane fans should be cautiously optimistic after following Jacory Harris’ career which began with a promising freshman season. However, Harris’ freshman season was moderately efficient, but lacked some of the traits you look for in a top QB. He averaged a measly 6.1 yards per attempt while he threw 12 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. But Kaaya showed a little more—he averaged 8.5 yards per attempt while his completion percentage was only 2% lower than Harris’ freshman year (60% and 58%). Not to mention, he was the full-time starter while Harris had the benefit of only playing part-time. As long as James Coley continues to develop him, Kaaya could save Al Golden’s job. But with big shoes to fill at other key offensive positions, Kaaya’s development will be paramount to the success of this offense. Gone are impact players Duke Johnson, Clive Walford, Ereck Flowers, and Phillip Dorsett. Those are big-time voids. Flowers and Dorsett were first round picks while Walford and Johnson were arguably the best at their respective positions in the country. Joseph Yearby and Gus Edwards are two great running backs, so Johnson’s loss won’t sting quite as much. But there are no immediate replacements for Walford, Flowers, and Dorsett. And even though he wasn’t a high draft pick like the others, Shane McDermott was the ACC’s best center in 2014. There is a lot to replace on offense. But the potential is there given the recent recruiting success. With improved QB play and a good amount of talent elsewhere, I’ll call for Miami’s offense to slightly improve on its 62nd ranked offense in 2014.

DEFENSE
While not to the same degree as the offense, the defense must replace a few difference-makers as well. Most notably, Denzel Perryman was the heart and soul of this defense. His talent was undeniable as a hard-hitter, but his presence at middle linebacker also leaves a leadership void. Anthony Chickillo wasn’t a supreme pass-rusher, but his skillset will not easily be replaced as he was a well-balanced defensive end. However, the Hurricanes, for being associated with the word “talent,” had a fairly weak pass rush last year. While 27 sacks is much better than the 13 they recorded in 2012, a team chalk-full of four star recruits should do better. Fortunately, Al-Quadin Muhammad returns after missing last year. He only recorded two sacks as a true freshman, but he is one guy that shows that unique ability to beat his man in front of him and hurry the QB. If he and others can improve the pass rush, this can be a very good defense, especially against the pass. Tyriq McCord, Raphael Kirby, and Jermaine Grace make up an excellent linebacker corp. For all of Denzel Perryman’s strengths, he was not the greatest at dropping back into coverage. And even though the secondary had its share of lumps, it was young, and most of the time it was good. Corn Elder and Artie Burns are very solid set of corners who can match up with just about anyone in the conference, even Tyler Boyd.

BOTTOM LINE
Miami was inconsistent last year. At times great; at times horrible. This is what worries me the most about Golden. Yes, inconsistent might as well be the definition for “freshman quarterback,” but the running game wasn’t great and the defense wasn’t dominant. If Golden can escape this year with eight wins this year that would be a huge success because the 2016 roster looks lethal. But with a cross-division schedule of Clemson and Florida State, the odds are against him. However, the ‘Canes do get Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech at home, so if there was ever a chance to unseat the two Techs, it might be this year, especially considering the Yellow Jackets have the same cross-division schedule.

4. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

For the first time in a while, the Tar Heels don’t seem to be preseason media darlings. And if there was ever a season to pick them to do well, it would be 2015. Yes, the defense was terrible last year and the offense was inconsistent, albeit very explosive. But with 10 starters returning on offense including Marquise Williams, the Tar Heels could have one of the best offenses in the country. When one side of the ball is elite, you don’t need a good other side of the ball to compete for a divisional crown. Look at Virginia Tech—the Hokies offense is still a work in progress and they didn’t even upgrade their coordinator like the Tar Heels did with Gene Chizik. But their defense should be one of the very best units in the country. If the Tar Heels can improve further on offense, they will compete for the Coastal crown.

OFFENSE
Let’s start with the good—the offense. Gone are Jack Tabb, TJ Thorpe, and…well…that’s it. Marquise Williams returns, as does his backup Mitch Trubisky who played very well for a true freshman in 2014. Elijah Hood is a former five star running back, and his running mate is a former four star recruit TJ Logan. While the running game wasn’t as explosive as you would think, only averaging a modest 4.0 yards per carry, they were young and had a few head-scratching performances. Like how does any team, let alone this high-powered attack, rush 32 times for 6 yards against Miami? They laid another stinker against rival NC State, but were otherwise solid—I just needed to point out that ridiculous stat line. So with Hood and Logan back behind all five starters on the O-line including All-ACC performer Landon Turner at guard, this rushing attack should take a few steps forward. On the outside, Ryan Switzer, Mack Hollins and Quinshad Davis form a very good trio at receiver, all complementing each other’s strengths and weaknesses very well. Switzer is a Wes Welker-type—and I don’t just say that because he is small and white—while Davis and Hollins are both 6’4” playmakers. As I mentioned earlier though, Marquise Williams was inconsistent. He sort of reminded me as a higher-potential Bo Wallace from Ole Miss; you never really knew what you were going to get. Some players are just like that—they always were and they always will be. But some players just needed some time to mature and grow into the system. Last year was Williams’ first year as the full-time starter. With another offseason under his belt and a better running game, I’m expecting for a more consistent 2015 season from Williams.

DEFENSE
Now on to the bad and the ugly. North Carolina ranked 120th in the FBS in total defense, giving up nearly 500 yards per game. If you turned on the game tape, you’d see there was a talent gap after some key pieces like Kareem Martin and Tre Boston. However, you don’t have this bad of a defense without some poor coaching. Dan Disch and Vic Koenning are both gone after a terrible 2014 season. Gene Chizik, who was equally as bad of a head coach as Disch and Koenning were coordinators, comes to Chapel Hill with unbelievable expectations given his defensive pedigree. As I mentioned in my Pittsburgh preview, it’s impossible mask talent deficiencies on defense. So while I don’t anticipate this defense to be particularly strong, I do look for a marked improvement, particularly in the back seven. The defensive line has not shown much over the past two seasons, and pass-rushers are hard to come by. However, with better coaching in scheme and technique, I do expect to see that 5.2 yards per rush come down. Here is the bottom line: North Carolina cannot get any worse. These types of predictions are easy—expect better production on this side of the ball in 2015.

BOTTOM LINE
The Coastal appears to have legitimate favorites for the first time in a couple years in Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. The division’s lack of top power contributed to UNC’s lofty preseason hype in recent memory. Was UNC predicted to be a top 15 team by some? Yes. Was it predicted to finish first in the coastal, i.e. the tallest midget, as basically a consolation pick by others? Yes. Either way, North Carolina is being underrated by many due to its shortcomings in recent years. But if the offense can become more consistent, it could be a top 15 unit nationally. When you have a unit that good, you don’t finish in the bottom half of your division unless you are in the SEC West. Expect a better year in Chapel Hill.

5. PITTSBURGH PANTHERS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

Looking at Pittsburgh on paper, you can’t help but say “this team is pretty good.” They are very unpredictable because offensively there is a lot to like and defensively there was a lot to dislike last year. Now here is the difficult question a lot of us are asking: What will be defensive guru Pat Narduzzi’s impact be in his first year as Head Coach? Better defense? Worse offense? With the raw talent the Panther’s return on offense, I don’t expect much of a drop off on offense. Paul Chryst was an offensive-minded coach, but last year the Panthers scored with their superior talent, not their superior scheme. So that leaves us with the defense. If the defense can actually improve this year, don’t be shocked to see the Panthers take the Coastal with a manageable cross-division schedule featuring a “gimme” in Syracuse.

OFFENSE
James Conner and Tyler Boyd are both impact juniors, but they might as well be seniors because there is a good chance this will be the last season we see them in Western PA. Conner will probably be the “thunder” in some NFL team’s “thunder and lightning” running back duo for the next decade while Boyd is the ACC’s version of AJ Green. Fortunately, their talents will not be wasted by incompetent QB play as Chad Voytik returns after an efficient 2014 season in which he threw 16 touchdowns and 7 interceptions with a 62% completion percentage. Voytik’s athleticism added another dimension to the offense because teams couldn’t just gameplan for Conner’s running in between the tackles. The Panthers averaged 5.32 yards per carry (anything over 4.0 is usually considered good) so the different dimensions of this offense were difficult to stop. Boyd averaged 16.2 yards per catch, which is insane considering the number of times he was targeted (higher targets = less efficiency). Not to mention, the offensive line featured a number of talented players like TJ Clemmings, Matt Rotheram, and Dorian Johnson. However, Clemmings and Rotheram are on to the NFL, but starting center Artie Rowell returns from a torn ACL that sidelined him last year. Overall, I expect improvement from Chad Voytik in his second full season as the starter as this offense will be difficult to stop under new OC Jim Chaney.

DEFENSE
Pat Narduzzi made a defense in East Lansing. It didn’t happen overnight, but the Spartan’s defense sure has come a long way. During Narduzzi’s tenure (2007-2014), his defense improved from allowing an average of 25.1 points per game in his first three years (’07-’09) to 17.0 points per game in his final three years (’12-’14). What are the lessons learned from this? Narduzzi is a good defensive coordinator and it takes time to build a defense. Watching this Panther unit last year, it was evident that the secondary lacked speed and there was no heir apparent to Aaron Donald in the pass rush. All things considered, it is kind of surprising this defense didn’t do worse. It allowed 4.5 yards per carry and only recorded 19 sacks. A solid trio of linebackers in Todd Thomas, Anthony Gonzalez, and Matt Galambos helped salvage this defense, with Bam Bradley and Nicholas Grigsby providing good depth. Gonzalez and Thomas are gone, so Bradley and Grigsby will move into the starting lineup to make up yet another solid corp. Two of the top recruits this year, Jordan Whitehead and Jay Stocker, are defensive backs. As I mentioned earlier, this was a limited group last year that struggled against some of the faster teams. Michigan State could make an argument for DB U in Narduzzi’s tenure, so perhaps his presence will be felt most on the back end of the defense.

BOTTOM LINE
In 2009, Georgia Tech won the ACC behind a handful of star players surrounded by average ones. Demaryius Thomas, Jonathan Dwyer, Morgan Burnett, and Derrick Morgan were all impact players that continuously came up with big play after big play in Paul Johnson’s second season. While the Panthers almost certainly won’t have two big time players on defense like Morgan and Burnett, someone could emerge and the offense already features two future high-round NFL draft picks. Not to mention, Chad Voytik is a solid leader on offense who reminds me in some ways of a smaller Josh Nesbitt. Could the stars align in Narduzzi’s first season and have the Panthers win the ACC? I won’t bet on it, but having a handful of true impact players can allow anything to happen.

6. DUKE BLUE DEVILS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

Duke is one of my favorite teams in the conference. Not particularly this year, but I think that I’ve figured them out. The fightin’ Cutcliffes are the anti-Coastal team. While Georgia Tech has been well-coached and pretty consistently good in Paul Johnson’s era, as well as Virginia Tech save for the past three seasons, the rest of the Coastal is basically full of paper teams whose coaches can have you scratching your head. Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, and even Pittsburgh are talked up in the preseason, look good in flashes, and ultimately falter. Some programs “breed success,” most of the Coastal does the opposite. But Duke is the antithesis. They are well-coached, they are efficient, they develop talent, they just have “it.” And while Duke is still a work in progress that cannot simply reload—and football, like any sport, requires a substantial amount of talent in order to win—you have to like this program’s long-term outlook.

OFFENSE
Duke was supposed to take a step back last year after they lost a lot in the trenches, draft pick Ross Cockrell, and Braxton Deaver and Kelby Brown were both out for the year. Still Anthony Boone and Jamison Crowder returned, as did stud linemen Laken Tomlinson and Takoby Cofield. All are gone this year and Cutcliffe’s efficient aerial attack will be tested as there is no pure passer at quarterback. Thomas Sirk takes over after appearing in goal line and short yardage situations last year when Cutcliffe wanted to utilize his speed and athleticism. Sirk didn’t show much passing the ball as he only attempted 14 passes, albeit for 10 completions and 3 touchdowns as defenses prepared for the run. Crowder was the go-to option on the outside and always seemed to make a play when the Blue Devils needed it most. However, former All-ACC tight end Braxton Deaver returns from injury and may be more crucial to the pass game’s success than Crowder as Sirk gets adjusted to the full-time position. Outside of C Matt Skura, we don’t really know what to expect from the Blue Devil O-line. It is not uncommon to have a very good positional unit full of 2 star and 3 star recruits, but it is uncommon to have continual success with limited talent. The offensive line is well coached, but also featured some true athletes, led by thoroughbred Laken Tomlinson. Since 2011, the running game has gotten better each year. Perhaps due to the overall increase of talent on the roster, or perhaps due to the core of Tomlinson, Skura, and Cofield growing up and developing, but either way upward trajectories are always nice. I’m calling for a drop off, but not major drop off as a total of three starters return.

DEFENSE
One of the worst headlines this offseason was the news of Kelby Brown tearing his ACL for the second consecutive year. You simply hate to see players put in so much work to rehab—the only thing getting them through is probably the prospect of playing next season—only to be re-injured. As for the impact on Duke’s roster, it is monumental. The leader of this defense, Brown was also the best talent in this limited front seven. Last year, the Blue Devils gave up 4.82 yards per carry and recorded only 12 sacks. While attrition certainly isn’t any sort of solution, I’m basically ignoring the fact that Duke loses five starters in their front six; it can’t get much worse. The glimmer of hope is the returning trio of safeties in Jeremy Cash, DeVon Edwards and Deondre Singleton. Cash has been the best safety in the ACC for some time now and passed up the NFL to come back to Durham for one more season. Edwards was a freshman All-American two years ago and named Honorable Mention All-ACC last year. With the loss of Kelby Brown, this defense could be susceptible to the big play as Cash and Edwards will most likely be forced to come up into the box more.

BOTTOM LINE
I hate that I am picking the Blue Devils this low because I will probably come back to eat my words, but their talent gaps from last season are alarming. It starts with the fact that this offensive line loses two key cogs and a run-first QB is now running Cutcliffe’s show. Fortunately, the Blue Devils have a soft schedule featuring a weak out-of-conference slate and two of the three worst ACC Atlantic opponents, Boston College and Wake Forest. If Duke can exceed eight wins in 2014, I promise I will never pick the Blue Devils in the bottom half of the division again. But with the way they are recruiting, I won’t even be tempted to—Duke takes a step back this year, and rebounds in 2016.

7. VIRGINIA CAVALIERS

MIKE NOWOSWIAT
Co-Owner

After yet another disappointing season, Coach London is back in Charlottesville. While the Cavs didn’t look hopeless like they did in 2013, they were a far cry from the 2011 Peach Bowl team in London’s second season. But 2013 might have been a better as a Cavs fan. You probably just didn’t expect a whole lot. Maybe you’d go and have a good time, but in the end, that’s all it was. And your day probably wasn’t ruined because you could not possibly be disappointed after a loss. Ok, I’m just kidding. At least the program wouldn’t be up for relegation if it had been a member of the English Premier League. But still, the ‘ Hoos were a very good defensive team that couldn’t seem to make an extra play at the end of games. Aside from two big losses to BYU (while Taysom Hill was still under center), Georgia Tech (in the midst of their red-hot end of season), and Florida State (in the midst of their 26-0 streak), Virginia either beat every team it played, or lost by at most one touchdown, and that wasn’t against the sisters of the poor, either. The Cavs beat Louisville, Miami, and Pittsburgh, and should have beaten UCLA and North Carolina. If this roster returned a lot, I would probably say it’s a Coastal Division contender.

OFFENSE
If you are a UVA fan, don’t answer. Actually, you might as well answer you probably don’t know anyways: Name the last five QBs who received the majority of playing time in one season. Greyson Lambert, David Watford, Michael Rocco, Marc Verica, and Jameel Sewell. No, that is not the AFC Pro Bowl roster. That is 100% the most recent starting Virginia QBs. Lambert was supposed to buck this trend after coming to Virginia with offers from Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Miami, and South Carolina. Well last year he threw for 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions as the Cavs look pretty helpless on offense. Actually, the run game was solid. Not spectacular, but solid as running backs Kevin Parks and Kalek Shepherd averaged about 4.0 yards per carry, which is basically the threshold between bad and good (i.e. average). While Parks was a beast whose absence will be missed, the offensive line figures to be better as only Conner Davis and Cody Wallace are gone and former starters Jay Whitmire and Ryan Doull return from injuries. Also, QB Matt Johns was both more elusive and more efficient than Lambert in split time last year, so you figure his presence will help prevent negative plays. I do expect to see an improvement from this offense this year, but not enough to make up the losses on defense.

DEFENSE
Virginia’s biggest strength has certainly been its defense for just about as long as I can remember. And when its strength wasn’t its defense, it didn’t have a strength and it was in trouble. Last season, the ‘Hoos were the ultimate feast or famine defense. With a talented front seven, they limited opponents to only 3.4 yards per carry, but ranked 12th in the ACC in passing defense. The secondary wasn’t bad, albeit banged up and inexperienced, but still talented. And the pass rush was arguably the best in the conference with Henry Coley, Max Valles, and Eli Harold all coming off the edge. Sure, some teams may have padded stats through the air by sheer number of passing attempts as they were forced to avoid the run, but only Georgia Tech and North Carolina gave up more yards per game through the air. However, with Demetrious Nicholson coming back and looking to have a full season for the first time in three years, and Quin Blanding moving into a leadership role at safety, look for the defensive backfield to be a strength of this roster. Not to mention All-ACC safety Maurice Canady is back to give the Cavs one of the best safety tandems in the country. With all those pass rushers gone, however, it will be up toplayers like Kwontie Moore and Andrew Brown to play up to their lofty recruiting rankings. Brown was a top ten player in the country before coming to Virginia, but the defensive tackle didn’t have a huge impact in his freshman season. However, he turned it on in the spring including a spring game in which he recorded 3.5 tackles for a loss. If the potential turns into production along the defensive front, there is no reason why Virginia cannot go bowling.

BOTTOM LINE
I would have picked the Cavs to finish above Duke, but its schedule is very difficult. While UCLA, Notre Dame, and Boise State are all non-conference games, the potential is there for a rough start, which could snowball into negative momentum before the season even gets started. As for the cross-division schedule, Virginia and Duke should both beat Syracuse and Wake Forest, respectively, but the ‘Hoos travel to Louisville while Duke gets Boston College at home. I am very high on the Cardinals in Bobby Petrino’s second year, so I already have UVA starting one game back. But you might as well shoot for the stars because you just might make it. If Virginia’s good recruiting can come to fruition and it can finish on the winning side of close games, the Cavs could start the season with a bang and come into ACC play red hot. But until the offense turns it up not just one notch, but multiple notches, I will not expect it. However, I also will not dismiss the possibility of a surprise season because the talent is there on paper.