2006 College Football Playoff Simulation

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF SIMULATION

2006 EDITION

BRETT CIANCIA and MIKE NOWOSWIAT
February 2015

After decades of dreaming about it, years demanding it, and months arguing about it, the Playoff Era is finally here. The old BCS system would have produced a National Championship Game of #1 Florida State (only undefeated) and #2 Alabama (SEC Champion), but with both of those squads losing in the National Semifinals, the new system is instantly validated.

This offseason, we will take the role of the Selection Committee and look at how every BCS season (1998-2013) would have played out in the current College Football Playoff setup. As a staff, we will analyze, debate, and ultimately select the 4 most deserving teams and seed them #1 through #4. Once the bracket is set, we will throw the historical matchups into the game simulator over at What If Sports, a complex algorithm that simulates any matchup of teams from 1996 to the present. We will simulate each matchup 25 times for a more accurate sample size, and report the series results and average score.

How different would the college football landscape look if the 4-team playoff had come 16 years sooner? Would the SEC still have held the crystal trophy for 7 straight seasons? Would Oregon have a championship by now? How would the famous #3 teams such as 2000 Miami, 2003 USC, 2004 Auburn, and 2011 Oklahoma State fare with a shot at glory? Would the BCS busters prove themselves?

Let the games begin - here's what should have been:

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2006 SEASON BACKGROUND & SELECTION COMMITTEE

The BCS was dealt a new issue in 2006, as the clear-cut #1 and #2 teams (Ohio State and Michigan) faced off on the final week of the regular season and played to a 42-39 thriller. Would a rematch be fair to the winning Buckeyes? Was it fair to leave out 1-loss Michigan despite a better resume than the rest of the field?

Thankfully, our Selection Committee didn't have to handle these issues with the 4-team College Football Playoff. Ohio State earned the #1 seed while Michigan earned a spot in the other semifinal to play SEC champion Florida. The 4th spot had some debate tied to it, as 6 teams made decent cases for a bid. LSU had the toughest schedule, winning 2 of their 4 top 10 matchups, but failed to win its conference, or division for that matter. Wisconsin did finish with 1-loss but the Committee felt it couldn't take 3 teams from the same conference, especially with the high number of viable candidates. Oklahoma and USC won their conferences but had not one, but two losses on their resumes. Boise State ran the table for another perfect season, but their poor strength of schedule (and fellow non-AQ Utah's sad performance in the 2004 Playoff) were reasons to exclude the Broncos. Ultimately, Louisville earned the #4 spot. The Cardinals won the Big East by beating #3 West Virginia, and also scheduled Kansas State, #15 Miami, and Kentucky out of conference. Their only loss came on a last-second field goal in Rutgers' biggest home game ever during Rutgers best season ever.

2006 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

Jim Tressel's 2006 Buckeyes were thought to be invincible, especially behind the arm of Heisman-winner Troy Smith. But this is what makes the College Football Playoff special. The #4 seeded Louisville Cardinals met much criticism for their selection, but quickly quieted all critics in their 18-7 (games) thrashing of OSU. It wasn't even close; the average score was 35-24, and the Cardinals advanced to the title.

Fresh off a bitter 42-39 loss to rival Ohio State in what many dubbed the "Game of the Century," Michigan was playing with a new sense of revenge. They met Florida in the other semifinal matchup and squeaked out a close series victory, 13-12 games (average score of 21-20).

Chad Henne had a bunch of playmakers to spread the ball around to: RB Michael Hart, WR Steve Breaston, WR Mario Manningham, WR Adrian Arrington. The story here was not Lloyd Carr's offense, but rather Bobby Petrino's unit. Brian Brohm lit up the Michigan secondary, while Michael Bush added ground yardage. Louisville won the series convincingly, 17 games to 8, with an average score of 31-22. Louisville becomes the first #4 seed to win the College Football Playoff.