2015 Pac-12 North Division Preview

BRETT CIANCIA
August 1st, 2015

1. OREGON DUCKS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Mike Bellotti built it, Chip Kelly elevated it, and now Mark Helfrich is maintaining this powerhouse program. Oregon leads the nation in wins since 2010 with a total record of 60-8 over that span. That 5-year window is bookended by National Championship appearances in which the Ducks couldn’t secure the ultimate prize. However, Marcus Mariota helped the program check off a major box by bringing home the first Heisman Trophy to Eugene. His departure leaves quite the void for Helfrich, as Oregon attempts to defend the conference title and finally win the school’s elusive first national title. There will always be critics until that last accomplishment has been fulfilled, but it really is hard to find faults in this program’s recent dominance. Fans nationwide love to throw the oft used “overrated” slur at Oregon; they couldn’t be further from the truth. In addition to their top spot in the overall national win standings since 2010, Oregon has finished the last 8 seasons with winning records against the spread. This means that they continue to outperform the weekly expectations set by Vegas and the betting public. For context, the next closest streak of ATS winning seasons is 4 seasons (Baylor and Kansas State). So let’s cool it with the overrated labels until Oregon is dethroned.

That said, questions remain on both sides of the ball, and the power appears to have shifted from the North Division to the South, despite winning every Pac-12 title game since expansion.

OFFENSE
Oregon has risen to prominence behind sheer speed and its high-paced offensive attack. Well, that and Nike. Scott Frost returns as offensive coordinator despite being one of the most coveted young head coaching candidates. He and Helfrich have almost the exact opposite issues heading into the 2015 season as they faced last preseason. Last year with Mariota returning, the QB position and offensive line were set and known high quantities, but the skill spots were filled with youth and question marks. Now, the RB and WR stables are proven (and extremely talented) but the QB and front 5 are unknowns. Replacing a Heisman-winning QB is always a challenge, and history shows that teams tend to struggle in the subsequent season. The FCS version of the Heisman is the Walter Payton Award, and its back-to-back runner-up is transferring in to fill the void. Vernon Adams tore apart FCS defenses to the tune of 10,438 yards (101 TD – 31 INT) over three years. Adams also shined against Pac-12 teams, and led Eastern Washington to just the 3rd FCS win over a ranked FBS team, defeating #25 Oregon State in the 2013 opener. He will perhaps remind fans of Jeremiah Masoli’s playing style, short but shifty. His creativity may remind the national fan of a young Russell Wilson. Adams was not in for spring, meaning incumbent Jeff Lockie got all the reps. I fully expect Adams to win the job in August, barring education issues that remain unclear at this time. The offensive line loses All-American Hroniss Grasu, but his void in the middle will be filled by Notre Dame transfer Matt Hegarty, who started 11 games for the Irish last fall. Tyler Johnstone headlines the unit, and returns from missing 2014 to injury.

As long as the new starting quarterback is efficient and distributes the ball to this wide array of weapons, look out for another explosive Duck attack. Royce Freeman and Thomas Tyner form a potent duo in the backfield; both average over 5 yards per carry and depending on the carry distribution, both could top 1000 yards to keep the 6-year streak alive of 1000+ backs. When you picture Oregon RB, you think speed and agility. Freeman broke that mold as a heavy inside runner. But due to high pace of play, the full stable of runners is vital. There is no shortage here. On the outsides, Braylon Addison returns from injury, and so do the other top 4 receivers. Dwayne Stanford brings the big frame and adds valuable blocking, meanwhile Byron Marshall adds the game-breaking versatility and needs to get 10+ touches a game.

While there will be a new face at QB, I expect the Oregon offense to look the same, albeit a tad less unstoppable. Surely Vernon Adams has a high ceiling, but Mariota’s efficiency was almost unhuman. I expect a small regression in both points per game and yards per play, but a similarly balanced output both rushing and passing. Still plenty of post-touchdown push-ups for The Duck.

DEFENSE
Last season, this was the worst 3rd down defense in the league, had red zone efficiency issues, but more than made up for it by creating turnovers. It was an optimistic, play-making unit; coupled with the efficient Mariota, Oregon led the nation in turnover margin (+23). The defense continued this in the national championship, forcing 4 Buckeye turnovers, but the offense failed to keep up their end of the bargain, and couldn’t capitalize (just 2-12 on 3rd downs). To expect this amount of forced turnovers again is a stretch, so the unit NEEDS to improve upon its efficiency numbers. Long-time defensive coordinator Don Pellum remains committed to the 3-4 defense, but there are talks of less 8-man coverage. A 4-man rush seems to be perfect fit for this year’s defense. DeForest Buckner turned down the NFL and is a legit All-American candidate at End. Nose guard Alex Balducci anchors the 3-man front, and look for more pass rush pressure from OLB Christian French, who actually led the team in sacks (6.5) despite not starting a game. Former JUCO-transfer Joe Walker is drawing all conference hype at MLB. The secondary gave up 264 passing yards per game (111th nationally), AND only returns one starter in Reggie Daniels. Youth in the back four is never a good thing, especially in the pass-heavy Pac-12. Oregon has recruited well, and its simply time for young guys to step up. Ifo-Ekpre Olomu was certainly missed in the Playoffs, and will be missed again as he and Arik Armstead are in the pros now.

OUTLOOK
Oregon remains the favorite in the North, despite losing Mariota and a slew of defensive stars. The Ducks make the return trip to East Lansing; Michigan State held a 27-18 lead in the 3rd quarter but Mariota rallied the troops to a win. I see this game going the other way this time around, with the Spartans winning Round 2. The Pac-12 is certainly a gauntlet, but Oregon does miss UCLA and Arizona out of the South Division. Trips to the desert (ASU) and The Farm (Stanford) along with the Week 13 showdown with USC will define the season. Ultimately I see Oregon winning the North again, but losing in the title game, ceding the league’s Playoff bid to the South champ, USC.

2. STANFORD CARDINAL

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Every season since Jim Harbaugh’s departure in 2010 the preseason narrative has been the same: “yeah, Stanford was solid last year, but how will they ever replace [insert star player here].” First it was the departure of Heisman-finalist Toby Gerhart in 2009, then coach Harbaugh after 2010, then QB Andrew Luck went pro after 2011, then all-time school rushing leader Stepfan Taylor left The Farm after 2012. The steady constant, besides a key star leaving every year, has been that Stanford has silenced critics each time. They control the line of scrimmage living by the old-school mantra “run the ball, stop the run” and in the process, made 4 straight BCS bowls from 2010-2013 and defeated the favored Oregon Ducks in the North Division title game in ’12 and ’13. Well, it took this long for even a small regression from their unprecedented level of sustained success. Stanford suffered 5 losses last season, 3 by a field goal, and surrendered the division and league crowns to Oregon. Statistically, it was actually the best defense over this span (16.4 points per game allowed per game). But the offense was one-dimensional and stagnant behind a youthful, albeit talented offensive line.

Was the 8-5 campaign finally the crash of Stanford, the start of its return to normal program standards? Absolutely not. View it as more of a blip on the radar, as this team remains stacked with talent, and is guided by David Shaw (42-12 in 4 seasons) who has demonstrated his ability annually. The Cardinal very much remains in the North Division race. The fact that 8-5 was considered a disappointment says a lot about the program’s recent rise and elevated expectations.

OFFENSE
Usually, this has been an incredibly efficient offense that controlled the line of scrimmage and controlled the clock. That dipped a bit in 2014. The Stanford offense is designed to eat clock behind a power run game, and be physical and efficient enough to force the defense to take risks – that’s when they strike with play-action over the top. These strikes are eventually what puts the game out of reach. But all of this is predicated on a strong offensive line and backs that hit the hole hard. Both facets are somewhat of question marks right now.

Yes, Kevin Hogan is STILL the starting quarterback here, entering his 4th season in control of the offense. He finished with a 19-8 TD-INT ratio and demonstrated some mobility by rushing for 295 yards. As usual, Hogan was patient in the pocket with active feet, and played especially well towards the end of the season. Behind him are 3 backs that will most likely share carries. Reymound Wright led the team in rushing [601, 4.5, 11 TD], Barry Sanders Jr brings a 3rd down element in pass protection and the screen pass game, but the true x-factor will be Christian McCaffrey. The 6-foot sophomore is very elusive, shows flashes of a Darren Sproles type back who can be used in the backfield, on fly sweeps, and in the slot. McCaffrey adds the playmaking ability that the unit loses with the departure of Ty Montgomery (2014 leading receiver and returner). Devon Cajuste and deep-threat Michael Rector will lead on the outsides, while the tight end position is strong and essential to this offense. Austin Hooper brings speed at TE, enough to get behind the defense and create mismatches. It has even been mentioned that as many as FOUR tight ends could be used on the field at once.

The offensive line has always been the key recipe for success in this system, and the youth caught up to them last season. Now, that youth becomes veterans, and collectively this unit is one of the league’s strongest. Despite losing Andrus Peat to the pros, the Kyle Murphy/Joshua Garnett duo headlines the group, and I expect an improvement on their mediocre 4.3 yards per carry. Stanford again has the line it needs to impose its will on a front seven, and control the game. The key will be if Stanford can get back to winning 1st downs, staying ahead of the sticks and in control of the game.

DEFENSE
The defense has finished in the top 10 in 4 of the last 5 seasons, and actually last year’s unit was the best of that span, finishing 2nd nationally. In that same 5-year window, Stanford finished either 1st or 2nd in Pac-12 defense every season. For that trend to continue, 7 new starters must emerge this preseason. It is worth noting that Stanford has recruited towards the top of the conference (Pac-12’s 4th best in our Weighted Average Talent Index), and defensive coordinator Lance Anderson has been a key part of player development here since 2007. I am sure that a stout defense will be assembled, it’s just a matter of who the pieces will be.

Just two starters return in the front seven: OLB Kevin Anderson and ILB Blake Martinez, a star player that they fittingly refer to as “The Machine” because he never stops moving (102 tackles, 3 INT). Up front, Harrison Phillips attempts to fill the void of Henry Anderson, but the line may be the biggest concern. More stars depart from the secondary, as Jordan Richards, Alex Carter, Kyle Olugbode, and Wayne Lyons leave big shoes to fill. While this unit will not match the elite standards set by the 2014 unit (top 10 finish in all 5 major stat categories), don’t expect a total collapse either. Look for a small step back.

OUTLOOK
A non-conference slate of Northwestern, UCF, and Notre Dame is commendable, but a tough compliment to the already brutal Pac-12 gauntlet. Last season started with the physical 13-10 loss to USC, and the Cardinal make the return trip in Week 3. I have this pegged as a loss with another coming in either the Arizona, UCLA, or California home games. The North will be decided on November 14th as Oregon comes to The Farm, but I expect Oregon to defend the North title.

3. CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Jeff Tedford opened his tenure to the tune of 8 straight winning seasons from 2002-2009; this struggling program had just 8 winning seasons in the 27 years prior. His turnaround brought Cal Football to new heights with a pair of 10-win seasons and had them a botched poll vote away from a Rose Bowl bid in 2004. It was a case of raising expectations and then failing to match his own new standards. Despite the highpoints in the mid-2000s, the tenure was becoming stale at the end, and the cupboard was completely empty for Sonny Dykes, who took over in 2013 after 3 years as Louisiana Tech’s headman. Dykes is a disciple of the Mike Leach/Hal Mumme school of thought, and their wide-open, pass-happy offensive philosophy. After a 1-11 transition year, his 2nd Cal team resembled some of those great Leach teams, at least statistically. And since Day 1 here, Dykes has echoed that “the third year is the year.” Cal finally has consistency in the coaching staff and playbook, meaning the team can stop worrying and can simply “go play.” Will Dykes’ 3rd year mantra be fulfilled? They certainly have the offensive firepower and elite signal caller to light up the scoreboard, but need to develop a competent defense to truly compete with the league’s elites and have a shot at breaking into the North’s Top 2, a territory exclusive to Oregon and Stanford since expansion.

OFFENSE
The best quarterback you haven’t heard of yet is 3rd-year starter Jared Goff, who is already the 3rd highest passer in school history and should take over the all-time record by mid-September. His 2014 season was nothing short of amazing, albeit overlooked by the other elite quarterbacks in this pass-heavy league (3973 yards, 62.3%, 35 TD – 7 INT). This time last season, Goff was coming off of a shoulder surgery, but enters fall camp this time fully healthy. Having put on some 25 pounds of muscle, he is stronger, more durable, and even more ready to lead the offense. Cal returns a 1115-yard rusher in Daniel Lasco, a true down-hill runner that looks to eclipse the thousand-yard mark again. Another big back to keep an eye on is Vic Enwere who played in all 12 games as a freshman and has lowered his pad level. Besides Goff, the strength of this team is the receiver group. 9 of the top 10 targets return from last season (Chris Harper gone), and there is pretty even distribution at the top. Kenny Lawler led last season (54 for 701, 9 TD), while Bryce Treggs looks to break his father’s one-time Cal receptions record. Trevor Davis transferred in from Hawaii to add another element, while Maurice Harris is your token one-handed catch guy. Finally, look for Stephen Anderson to add a physical tight end presence over the middle (46 for 661, 5 TD). Dykes will again use 8 or 9 receivers in this high tempo, high speed attack. Often times, the routes are variable and may remind some viewers of their time on the recess schooyard: “just go get open!”

Three offensive linemen return, headlined by all-conference candidate Chris Borrayo at left guard. I expect an improvement on the mediocre 4.07 yards per carry (86th nationally), but even then it’s hard to criticize an offense that put up 38.3 points per game (11th nationally) behind Goff and the 6th best passing attack in the land. With that crucial third season of offensive development, I look for this offense to match last year’s scoring and even eclipse 40 points per game.

DEFENSE
For as explosive as the offense was, the defense was inversely terrible. Besides some above average stats in the rush defense game, the 2014 Cal defense was brutally bad and ranked in the 100s in several major categories. The 39.8 points allowed per game finished 123rd (of 128) but was even a touchdown improvement from the 2013 output of 46 points per game. So yes, some progress was made, but now the unit needs even more significant progress to compete at the top of the league and return to bowl season for the first time since 2011. The good news is that 9 starters are back and it is a veteran unit for the first time in the Dykes era. The linebackers are the strength on the defense and one of the more experienced corps nationally, led by leading tackler Michael Barton (80 tackles), Hardy Nickerson (69), and Jalen Jefferson (58). Look for even more production and football instincts from this trio. The front 4 needs to improve its pass rush desperately, especially in the Pac-12, as the group finished 113th in sacks with just 16 total. For reference, Utah’s Nate Orchard had 18.5 sacks himself. More question marks remain in the secondary, as they were continuously toasted the last two seasons (injuries certainly didn’t help). Darius White, former JUCO transfer, returns from season-missing injury and the staff feels he has locked down one of the corner spots. Across from him is Darius Allensworth, who has benefitted from one-on-ones in practice against some of the best receivers in the league. Griffin Platt and Stefan McClure will start at the safety spots, but do not overlook Derron Brown who has a bright future in the secondary and could rotate in this fall. In defensive coordinator Art Kaufman’s second season here, there is now more of an understanding of the scheme, which allows the players to simply play and react. It was a mix of youth and experience, but the veterans were still banged up in the spring which allowed for more development of the younger guys in the secondary – certainly a plus moving forward.

Before I use the tired phrase “it can’t get any worse,” let’s remind ourselves that it was in fact worse in 2013. That said, look for improvement from a veteran group that finally has stability at the defensive coordinator spot, and scheme continuity cannot be undervalued. Cal’s defense doesn’t need to be Stanford. They just need to give this high-powered offense a chance to control its destiny. A team should not be losing games having scored 40+. Just give Goff and company enough room to work with.

OUTLOOK
4 of the 7 losses last season were by a score or less, and I expect those close gaps to be narrowed and even reversed this season. Dykes has echoed the 3rd year being the program-changer, and all signs are pointing that way. After a 2-0 start, a trip to Texas will reveal a bit about Cal’s progress. Unfortunately, they draw top South contenders USC, UCLA and Arizona State, avoid the automatic win over Colorado, and have to play North contenders Oregon and Stanford both on the road. It appears that Cal missed Stanford’s “down year” last season, but still has enough firepower to make some noise in the North Division and looks like the clear leader of the 3rd-6th pack of teams. Cal will return to bowl season, and possibly create some havoc in the Pac-12. The third year is here, and Cal is competitive again.

4. WASHINGTON HUSKIES

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

On December 6th, 2013, the Washington football program hit the coaching carousel lottery by landing Chris Petersen as their next head coach. Petersen led Boise State’s 8-year dynasty with a 92-12 overall record, which included 2 undefeated seasons and 2 Fiesta Bowl wins. He is the only 2-time winner of the Paul “Bear” Bryant Award, and has been a prime target for years. He takes the keys to what I feel is a sleeping giant of a program. The 1991 National Champs went through a downturn until Steve Sarkisian returned the program to bowl season and finally broke the 7-win barrier with his 9-4 run in 2013. Petersen’s first season resembled a typical rebuilding year, and he still managed an 8-6 record. Usually I put heavy stock in a talented coach’s 2nd season at a new school, but this year may be the exception to the rule due to a mass exodus of talent and an unusual amount of missed reps in the spring due to injuries to 8 potential starters. I look for his 3rd season (2016) to be the breakthrough, but for now, UW still looks like a formidable opponent in the deep Pac-12.

OFFENSE
2014 starter Cyler Miles left the team in May citing a chronic hip injury as the cause. The starting job will be fought for this fall camp and three contenders have emerged. Jeff Lundquist (junior) is the only one with game experience, but has to work on his decision-making. KJ Carta-Samuels (freshman) ran a double wing offense in high school and as a result, had nearly 80% less reps in high school than other incoming freshman Jake Browning. As a senior at Folsom High School (CA), Browning threw for 5790 yards and 91 touchdowns; his 229 career passing touchdowns broke the national record set by Jimmy Clausen. These are video game numbers, people! There was not much stretching the field vertically last season, and is something the offense wants to work on. Petersen wants to build off of the underneath routes, which should loosen the box and keep safeties more honest. The arm to do that is the young phenom, and I am calling for Browning to start as a rare true freshman. He will be handing the ball off to Dwayne Washington (fitting surname) who has big-play potential and emerged as the feature back towards the end of last season, finishing with a leading 697 yards and 9 touchdowns. The staff wants one feature back and a stable behind him; Deontae Cooper, 3 ACL tears later, will contribute along with the tiny speedster Jomon Dotson who was a breakout star in the spring. The top 4 receiving targets return, headlined by Jaydon Mickens, John Ross, and Dante Pettis. Shaq Thompson calls Ross the fastest guy he’s ever seen. Tight end Joshua Perkins will be a key security blanket for the young quarterback. The most critical issue with the offense, besides starting a true freshman under center, will be doing so behind a totally depleted offensive line that loses 4 starters (149 career starts). The two contributors that do return both missed spring with injury, so Petersen will need quick player development here to protect Browning.

The offense certainly had its issues last season, but that is to be somewhat expected in the first season of a new staff’s tenure. Usually that second year turns the corner for progress, but here there is extreme roster turnover on the offensive line attempting to protect a young QB. Look for the boost to be delayed a season.

DEFENSE
A similar mass exodus occurred on defense this offseason, as UW had FOUR defenders drafted in the top 44 picks of the NFL Draft: Danny Shelton (DT), Marcus Peters (CB), Shaq Thompson (OLB), and Hau’oli Kikaha (OLB). 5 of top 6 tacklers depart, and in total, just 4 starters return. Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski has been on Petersen’s staff from the beginning of the Boise State run, and has even better roster talent to work with here. UW has recruited well under Sarkisian, and collectively yield a 21st national ranking in our Weighted Average Talent Index, so the cupboard is not necessarily bare, it is just inexperienced. This unit was especially strong against the run, allowing 124 yards per game (22nd nationally) and just 3.28 yards per carry (14th). Elijah Qualls appeared in every game behind Shelton and did show flashes of excellence. But it is safe to assume some steps back here, with elite talent departing. Strongside linebacker Travis Feeney is the only returning starter in the front 7, while 3 of the back 4 return from a unit that allowed a poor 287 passing yards per game (123rd). Another year of experience together should pay dividends. Budda Baker is deserving of the preseason all-conference hype at free safety, while DB Austin Joyner is an incoming freshman to keep an eye on.

Yes, they get the 2nd year scheme boost and have recruited at above average levels, but I simply do not find it possible to replace 4 top NFL picks in addition to other top production gone in the front 7. Look for a regression from the 24.8 points allowed per game (40th).

OUTLOOK
Circle this opening Friday matchup as can’t miss. Petersen returns to the Blue Turf of Boise State for the first time, and will be met with a tough test from the defending Fiesta Bowl champs. From the South Division, UW misses UCLA but also misses bottom-feeder Colorado. They do pull California and Washington State at home, which look like the middle-of-the-pack North teams. Bowl eligibility and 6 wins may be tough to find, but that is a product of this incredibly difficult schedule. I am calling for a down year, and for this to be the true rebuilding year for a potentially dangerous 2016 Husky team in Petersen’s 3rd season.

5. WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

It’s year 4 in the Mike Leach era, and while he did bring the Cougars back to bowl season in 2013, he is yet to earn the school’s first winning season since 2003. He has assembled his trademark offense, the air raid attack that was so successful for a decade at Texas Tech. Glaring issues exist with the run game’s inefficiency, and with the defense in general. To sum up Wazzou’s problems, take last October’s game against California. 3-year starter Connor Halliday broke the NCAA record for passing yardage in a game (1990 David Klinger, Houston) by completing 48 of 69 for 734 yards and 6 touchdowns … yet they STILL LOST! The defense allowed 60 themselves. To keep pace in the Pac-12, a league that is surging and gaining depth each season, Leach needs to form a competent defense to compliment his effective, albeit extremely one-dimensional offense.

OFFENSE
As mentioned, Halliday ran Leach’s system perfectly and leaves the Palouse as the WSU career passing leader (11,304 yards). However, after his season-ending injury in the USC game, the keys to the Pirate Ship were handed over to freshman Luke Falk. Leach calls him the calmest quarterback he’s ever coached, and his performances were remarkable for a freshman in his first starting experience. Falk averaged over 400 yards in his 3 starts, but will battle for the job with redshirt freshman Peyton Bender who is a perfect fit for the system. I expect Falk to claim the starting role. The offensive line has potential to be great, as Joe Dahl and 3 additional starters return. In 2012, the unit averaged just 288 pounds, but the group has grown and developed and now averages 310. Leach’s line uses HUGE splits to spread out the defensive line and allow quarterbacks to benefit from wide vision lanes. Another strength remains on the outsides, as the receiver group is talented and coached by a familiar face to college football fans – Graham Harrell, the former Texas Tech QB under Leach. Gabe Marks is back from an injury redshirt and looks to be the key target after being heavily valued in 2013. The speedy Dom Williams had 43 catches and 9 touchdowns in 2014, and will compliment River Cracraft. There is a noticeable improvement in the group’s speed this season, and could present even more of a stress on defenses when Leach runs his infamous “6” route, which is a read-react 4 vertical play.

If you are looking for a definition of one-dimensional offense, this is the best example yet. Washington State led the nation in passing offense (478, 1st) yet finished dead last in rushing offense (40, 128th). However, beyond the surface, the 6.12 yards per play (34th) shows overall offensive efficiency despite the terrible 1.97 yards per carry (127th). While traditional football strategists use the run to open up the pass game, Leach uses short passes to set up the more vertical routes. The short/quick pass game is his equivalent to a rushing attack. The offensive line looks strong enough, the receivers dynamic enough, and Falk looks the part at quarterback. It is a different style of approach in this offense in that the quarterback doesn’t exactly read defenses, but they find open spaces and windows. The receivers adjust their routes to find those windows. It is almost resembles the annual family/neighborhood Turkey Bowl, or even kids on a playground: “What play should we run? … Ehh, just get open.”

DEFENSE
Not only did the 2014 unit finish 117th in points allowed and 127th in passing defense, but the team’s overall turnover margin was a terrible -17 (127th). This defense only forced THREE interceptions all season, and coupled with an average pass rush, the unit was not nearly disruptive enough. Leach, the offensive guru, went with an external hire as he brought in the high-energy Missouri safeties coach Alex Grinch. The goal is to reestablish the fundamentals and light a fire under this unit. Grinch will also switch the defense to a primarily 3-3-5, or Nickel package to attempt to get more speed on the field to deal with the Pac-12’s passing attacks. Up front, the active and disruptive Xavier Cooper will be missed, but Destiny Vaeao brings a solid rush of his own. OLB Kache Palacio led with 6.5 sacks and takes on the hybrid role of rush linebacker. Meanwhile, look for Peyton Pelluer to continue his development after starting the last 5 games of 2014 at MLB. In the primary nickel package, 3 of the 5 defensive backs return with starting experience; a fourth is JUCO transfer Treshon Broughton who will start at one of the corner spots. This unit needs to gel, and I think that Grinch will piece together at least a competent defense in his first year of Extreme Defense Makeover.

OUTLOOK
Besides two tune-up games in September, WSU makes the coast-to-coast return trip to New Jersey to take on Rutgers. Home games against Oregon State and Colorado look like the only guaranteed league wins, meaning that they need to steal one or two more games to earn a bowl bid. It’s an unlucky draw that their best shots at those steals are all on the road (AT Cal, AT Arizona, AT Washington). With the defense in a transition phase and so much of a question mark, I find WSU finishing 6-6 at best, but more likely sitting this bowl season at home.

6. OREGON STATE BEAVERS

BRETT CIANCIA
Co-Owner

Before Mike Riley took over the program, Oregon State was one of the bottom-feeders of the Pac-10 and all of FBS for that matter. OSU is home to the worst all-time winning percentage in the league, and had played in just 9 bowls before the Riley era. He brought them to 8 himself and elevated the program to a new level of winning. A string of 10 and 9-win seasons rose expectations to levels that couldn’t be replicated, and a stale feeling was setting in. In the blink of an eye, Corvallis fixture Riley accepted the role at Nebraska, and Wisconsin’s Gary Andersen took the vacancy here. Andersen made Utah State a winner, and kept alive the winning tradition at Wisconsin. He brings in a spread offense that is a sharp contrast to Riley’s traditional pro set. With just 2 starters returning on defense, and the offense undergoing a system overhaul, all signs are pointing towards a rebuilding year for the Beavers. But there is fresh energy here, and the proverbial ceiling at least feels like its been removed.

OFFENSE
Riley was known for adapting his offensive strategy towards the roster he had, as evidenced by pocket passer Sean Mannion leaving with the school record for career passing yards (13,600). With Mannion gone, Luke Del Rio transferring, and Brent VanderVeen moving to tight end, the starting job will come down to freshmen. For now, the mobile Seth Collins appears to have a slight edge over pocket passer Nick Mitchell. Look for Collins to be a better fit in Andersen’s system, but we may even see him split reps until a starter truly emerges. Storm Woods will get a heavy workload this season as the young quarterbacks ease into Division 1 football. I expect Woods, who averaged 6.3 per carry, to shatter his 2014 output (766 yards, 5 touchdowns). The offensive line returning 4 starters looks solid, and it will need to be just that to protect the new quarterback. Right guard Isaac Seumalo is back from a medical redshirt and is deserving of all-conference hype. Despite losing Connor Hamlett and Terron Ward, the top two targets return in Victor Bolden and Jordan Villamin. I expect some growing pains despite the veteran numbers and high-experience levels. The coaching change and new system coupled with potential freshman quarterbacks labels this a transitional season for the offense in a league that loves to light up the scoreboard.

DEFENSE
Andersen brings in former Utah defensive coordinator Kalani Sitake. Utah’s defense has always been hard-nosed and Sitake brings that same intensity to Corvallis. However, he is met abruptly with quite the rebuilding project, as just TWO starters return from a 2014 unit that allowed 31.6 points per game (98th) and a high 5.76 yards per play (87th). The top 6 tacklers depart including impact players Dylan Wynn, Michael Doctor and former Pick Six Previews’ Deion Award finalist Steven Nelson. Defensive end Jaswha James and corner Larry Scott are the only returning starters. Jalen Grimble, the former Miami-transfer will add some talent to the front 4 as he returns from injury after playing in just the first 3 games last season. Extreme inexperience in the back 7 is an issue for any defense, but that problem multiplies when dealing with pass-happy Pac-12 offenses week-in and week-out. I look for two steps back before moving forward with this rebuilding job.

OUTLOOK
A trip to the Big House headlines the non-conference slate for Oregon State. Their best shots at conference wins come in October, plus maybe Senior Day against Washington. I am calling for this to be a stereotypical transition year and do not see 6 wins on the schedule. I am calling for Oregon State to finish in last in the North Division, and should look forward to the 2nd year coach bonus this time next year.